Ea Energy Analyses

BSPC Climate and Energy Working Group

Dinner Table Discussion Baltic Sea Scenarios

Copenhagen, 20 October 2008

Helge Ørsted PedersenEa Energy Analyses

www.eaea.dk

Ea Energy Analyses

Ea Energy Analyses

Ea Energy Analyses

The Future Danish Energy System

The Danish Board of Technology: 2004-2007 Future Panel – Danish Parliamentarians Steering group with stakeholders Public hearing, workshops and seminars Scenario report + project newsletters to the

Parliament Modeling tool and data – STREAM

Used for education at Danish Technical University and Roskilde University

CO2-emissions: 50 % reduction in 2025 in relation to 1990Oil consumption: 50 % reduction in 2025 in relation to 2004

Ea Energy Analyses

Denmark’s gross energy consumption

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Oil

CoalRE

Natural gas

PJ

GDP 100 150

Energy Policy Securty of supply + Economy + Environment + Climate

Infrastructure Liberalisation Organisation

Market Energy and heat planning Market + Framework

Self-Suffieciency 0 % 145 %

+ Preparedness

District Heating 1,5 mio. households0,7 mio. households

2007

Technology Export 5 b. kr. 46 b. kr.

Ea Energy Analyses

The Danish Board of TechnologyThe Future Energy System

Dinner debate in the Danish Parliament in May 2006

Ea Energy Analyses

Combination Scenario

Gross

Gross energy consumption

Ea Energy Analyses

5 stakeholder workshops on key measures

Ea Energy Analyses

Prepared by

The Danish Board of TechnologyRISØ DTU

Ea Energy Analyses

Jan 2007 – Oct 2008

Towards50% oil reduction

50% CO2 emissions reduction

Future Energy Scenarios for EU27 in 2030

Ea Energy Analyses

Process of dialogue

Politicians

Utilities

Energy planners

Project developers

Researchers

OthersQuestions

Answers

Nov/Dec. Sep. - Oct.Feb. - March April - May

WebsiteWebsite

20082007

MEPsDialogue on- targets- measures- scenarios

MEPsStakeholdersExperts-Energy-Transport-Savings

Scenario reportRoad-mapModel tool+data

Scenario reportRoad-mapModel tool+data

Workshop Workshop

Phase II

STREAM updated, data, and scenarios

STREAM updated, data, and scenarios

Phase I

DisseminationDissemination

Public model tool -STREAMDraft report

Dinner debateDinner debate Final workshop

Ea Energy Analyses

Two scenarios

Small-tech

• Energy savings• District heating - CHP• Biomass• Solar, wind, wave

• Improved fuel economy

• Modal-change• Electric vehicles• ICT

Big-tech

• Carbon Capture & Storage

• Nuclear power• Biomass

• Improved fuel economy• Modal-change• Electric vehicles• Biofuels

Energy

Transport

…or perhaps a combination

Ea Energy Analyses

-

10.000

20.000

30.000

40.000

50.000

60.000

70.000

80.000

2005 Reference 2030 Small-Tech Big-tech

PJ

Gross energy consumption EU 27

Nuclear

RE

Natural gas

Coal

Oil

50% oil target

Results

Ea Energy Analyses

Results

Ea Energy Analyses

Resources and security of supply

Ea Energy Analyses

Economic results

• Annuitized value of the entire energy system in the scenario year (2030) i.e. – the average annual capital costs– costs for fuels, operation and maintenance, CO2-costs

• Not considered– Health benefits– Cost of modal change and improved efficiency in transport– Transaction costs related to implementation

• Technology and fuel costs may divert from projections

• Therefore: interpret results with caution

Ea Energy Analyses

Annuitised cost - extra costs in Small-Tech compared to reference

(case with low fuel price)

-400,000

-300,000

-200,000

-100,000

0

100,000

200,000

Fuel and CO2 Maint. Capital cost Total

million €/year

Economics

Fuel price projections Oil(USD/bbl)

Gas($/MBtu)

Coal($/ton)

Low (IEA projection 2007*)

62 7.3 61

High(Prices in September 2008)

115 16 179

Small-tech

CO2:45 €/t

Annuitised cost - extra costs in Big-Tech compared to reference

(case with low fuel price)

-400,000

-300,000

-200,000

-100,000

0

100,000

200,000

Fuel and CO2 Maint. Capital cost Total

million €/year

Ea Energy Analyses

EU Member states LocalGlobal

Research, Development and Education

EU’s quota systemTo utilise practical experience

Local Commitment

Planning – Infrastructure for electricity, natural gas and district heating

Taxes and incentives

Demonstration of flexible energy systemConsumers - Producers

Transnational planning of offshore windmills

Hydro Wind District Heating

City planning and transport policies

Electric/plug-in hybrid cars/busesTo develop

energy efficient vehicles Public Purchase Policy

CO2 Neutral Houses

Energy labelling and dynamic norms

Green Campaigns

Intelligent Energy System

Municipalities/cities

Existing buildings

Urban districts

Goals

Ea Energy Analyses

Copenhagen, 20 October 2008

Prepared by Ea Energy Analyses

Towards 50% oil reduction 50% CO2 emissions reduction…in 2030

Energy Scenarios for the Baltic Sea Region