brussels, dec 1, 2009 1 making an inefficient energy system in europe more efficient sven werner,...
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Brussels, Dec 1, 2009Brussels, Dec 1, 2009 11
Making an inefficient Making an inefficient energy system in Europe energy system in Europe
more efficientmore efficient
Sven Werner, professorSven Werner, professor
Halmstad University, SwedenHalmstad University, Sweden
Partly based on the IEE Ecoheatcool project findings, 2005-2006
Brussels, Dec 1, 2009Brussels, Dec 1, 2009 22
OutlineOutline
1.1. Inefficient energy system in EuropeInefficient energy system in Europe2.2. Heat recycling can increase the system Heat recycling can increase the system
efficiencyefficiency3.3. Expansion of current district heating Expansion of current district heating
systems and the available resourcessystems and the available resources4.4. Two time horizons: 2020 and 2050Two time horizons: 2020 and 20505.5. Barriers for expansion of district heating Barriers for expansion of district heating
systemssystems6.6. Some concluding proposalsSome concluding proposals
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1. Input-output analysis in 4 steps1. Input-output analysis in 4 steps
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Total PrimaryEnergy Supply (IEA
statistics)
Total FinalConsumption (IEA
statistics)
Total End Use(estimated)
Total Efficient EndUse (estimated with30% inefficiency)
EJ
Heat losses, central conversion(energy sector)
Heat losses, local conversion(consumers)
Heat losses, end use inefficiency
Combustible renewables andwaste
Solar/wind/other
Geothermal
Hydro
Nuclear
Natural gas
Petroleum products
Coal and coal products
Transportation
Electricity
Heat
European Union - 27 during 2006
Total Primary Energy Supply = 76,3 EJ
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1. Some activities are more inefficient 1. Some activities are more inefficient than othersthan others
Input-Output analysis for various parts of the energy system
EU27 in 2006
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Electricity District heat Fuel for heat -Industrial
sector
Fuel for heat -Other sectors
(buildings)
Fuel fortransportation
EJ
Output: Consumer end use of energy
Input: Total primary energy supply
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1. Some activities are more inefficient 1. Some activities are more inefficient than othersthan others
Input-Output analysis for various parts of the energy system
EU27 in 2006
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Electricity District heat Fuel for heat -Industrial
sector
Fuel for heat -Other sectors
(buildings)
Fuel fortransportation
EJ
Heat losses
Output: Consumer end use of energy
Input: Total primary energy supply
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1. Some activities are more inefficient 1. Some activities are more inefficient than othersthan others
Input-Output analysis for various parts of the energy system
EU27 in 2006
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Electricity District heat Fuel for heat -Industrial
sector
Fuel for heat -Other sectors
(buildings)
Fuel fortransportation
EJ
Heat losses
Output: Consumer end use of energy
Input: Total primary energy supply
Recycling of heat losses
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1. Inefficiency conclusions1. Inefficiency conclusions The EU27 energy system generates large The EU27 energy system generates large
amounts of conversion heat losses (60 % of amounts of conversion heat losses (60 % of the input) due to energy inefficiency.the input) due to energy inefficiency.
Inefficient parts dominate the energy system.Inefficient parts dominate the energy system.
The most efficient part is small: The 5000+ The most efficient part is small: The 5000+ district heating systems recycle only 2 EJ. district heating systems recycle only 2 EJ. Hereby, the total conversion heat losses are Hereby, the total conversion heat losses are reduced from 48 to 46 EJ.reduced from 48 to 46 EJ.
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2. Heat recycling and renewable resources 2. Heat recycling and renewable resources today in European district heating systemstoday in European district heating systems
Thermal power plantsThermal power plants, also called Combined Heat and Power , also called Combined Heat and Power (CHP) or Cogeneration, using 8% of total available heat (CHP) or Cogeneration, using 8% of total available heat resourcesresources
Waste incinerationWaste incineration in Waste-to-Energy plants, using 7% of in Waste-to-Energy plants, using 7% of total available non-recycled wastetotal available non-recycled waste
Industrial processesIndustrial processes having useful waste heat flows, using having useful waste heat flows, using less than 3% of total available heat resources less than 3% of total available heat resources
BiomassBiomass, using 1% of the current potential, using 1% of the current potential
GeothermalGeothermal, using 80 ppm of the current potential, using 80 ppm of the current potential
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2. The fundamental idea2. The fundamental idea
District Heating System Fossil fuels
Renewables as geothermal heat and biomass
Heat recycled from combined heat and power, waste incineration, and industrial surplus heat
Heat losses
Heat delivered for low temperature heat demands
The fundamental idea of district heating
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2. Heat supply composition2. Heat supply composition
EU27 - Heat sources for district heating etc
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
PJ/year
Fossil fuels, directuse
Renewables, directuse (geothermal,biomass, and waste)
Recycled heat,renewable CHP(waste and biomass)
Recycled heat, fossilCHP and industries
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3. Expansion possibilities3. Expansion possibilities
Current district heat market share is less Current district heat market share is less than 10% in EU27than 10% in EU27
Doubling market share and improving the Doubling market share and improving the energy supply will give substantial benefits: energy supply will give substantial benefits:
Lower carbon dioxide emissions, 400 million Lower carbon dioxide emissions, 400 million tons per yeartons per year
Lower import dependence, 4.5 EJLower import dependence, 4.5 EJ Lower primary energy supply, 2.1 EJLower primary energy supply, 2.1 EJ
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3. District 3. District heating: The five heating: The five
strategic heat strategic heat flowsflows
Heat flows in EJ during 2003 for the target area of 32 countries
Residual heat from all thermal power generation
19,2
Potential for direct use of geothermal heat
1,6
0,03
370
District heat generated
Surplus heat from industries
1,1 0,03
2,0
Biomass potential
0,17
0,14
Waste incinerated
2,3
0,5
Non-recycled waste
13-18
1,8
Industrial CHP
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3. Expansion 3. Expansion possibility – possibility – geothermalgeothermal resources resources
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3. Use of combustible renewables vs forest growth3. Use of combustible renewables vs forest growth
Total Primary Energy Supply of Combustible Renewables, GJ/capita
1
10
100
0,1 1,0 10,0 100,0
Net annual increment of the forest growing stock, m3 ob/capita
Luxembourg
Greece
Slovak Republic
PortugalDenmark
Latvia
Sweden
FinlandGreen line
for 20% of net annual increment
Blue line for 100% of net annual increment
Norway
Netherlands
Estonia
France
Lithuania
Slovenia
Austria
Spain
Czech republic
ItalyIreland
Belgium
United Kingdom
Poland
Croatia
Figure 18. National per capita combinations of total primary energy supply of combustible renewables (excluding the biomass part in municipal waste) and the net annual increment of the forest growing stock. Reference lines added for 20% and 100% fuel use of the net annual increment, assuming a net calorific value of 7,3 GJ/m3 ob.
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3. Expansion potential3. Expansion potential
Half of the short term expansion Half of the short term expansion potential in EU27 can be found in potential in EU27 can be found in Germany, France and United Germany, France and United Kingdom. The corresponding Kingdom. The corresponding residential market shares for district residential market shares for district heating are currently 13 %, 5 %, and heating are currently 13 %, 5 %, and 1%, respectively.1%, respectively.
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4. Two time horizons4. Two time horizons
2020, short term mitigation time 2020, short term mitigation time horizon:horizon: Most changes must be Most changes must be fulfilled within the existing energy fulfilled within the existing energy system with a low share of new system with a low share of new technologytechnology
2050, long term mitigation time 2050, long term mitigation time horizon:horizon: Possibility to create a Possibility to create a completely new energy system with completely new energy system with a high share of new technologya high share of new technology
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4. Short term example: Fast extensive natural gas 4. Short term example: Fast extensive natural gas substitution by heat recycled from a large pulp millsubstitution by heat recycled from a large pulp mill
Varberg, Sweden
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
Annual sales, TJ/year
Natural gas
District Heat, mainly based onrecycled industrial waste heat
The extension of the district heating system in Varberg has increased the district heat market share from 6% to 45%. The corresponding carbon dioxide emissions have decreased with 40%.
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4. Long term example: Everything is 4. Long term example: Everything is possible in 40 yearspossible in 40 years
The Swedish heat market for buildings in the residential and service sectors
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Market share
District heat
Electric heatingincl heatpumps
Others asfirewood andnatural gas
Fuel oil
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5. The main barriers for higher energy efficiency5. The main barriers for higher energy efficiency
Low cost fossil fuelsLow cost fossil fuels Our legislations relate mostly to use of Our legislations relate mostly to use of
fossil fuels and do not recognise energy fossil fuels and do not recognise energy efficiencyefficiency
Carbon taxes and carbon dioxide trading Carbon taxes and carbon dioxide trading are in general not strong enoughare in general not strong enough
City mitigation projects requires often City mitigation projects requires often local actors, not always present todaylocal actors, not always present today
Short term investment horizons in energy Short term investment horizons in energy companiescompanies
Brussels, Dec 1, 2009Brussels, Dec 1, 2009 2020
6. Some concluding proposals6. Some concluding proposals
Redesign all legislation to consider energy efficiencyRedesign all legislation to consider energy efficiency
Do not allow large heat losses without heat recycling Do not allow large heat losses without heat recycling in new power or industrial plants, according to the in new power or industrial plants, according to the best available technology (BAT) principle in the IPPC best available technology (BAT) principle in the IPPC directivedirective
Redesign all international energy statistics to Redesign all international energy statistics to consider energy efficiency and distributed consider energy efficiency and distributed generationgeneration
Use only Joule (J) as energy unit, giving a more Use only Joule (J) as energy unit, giving a more transparent energy markettransparent energy market
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The EndThe End
Thank you for your attention!Thank you for your attention!
Brussels, Dec 1, 2009Brussels, Dec 1, 2009 2222
Some back-up slidesSome back-up slides
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Final consumption by customers Final consumption by customers before local conversion lossesbefore local conversion losses
0
5
10
15
20
25
Total Industry Sector Total Transport Sector Total Other Sectors
EJ Combustible renewablesand waste
Solar/wind/other
Geothermal
Natural gas
Petroleum products
Coal and coal products
Electricity
Heat
European Union - 27 during 2006
Total Final Consumption = 53,9 EJ
Brussels, Dec 1, 2009Brussels, Dec 1, 2009 2424
Our common historyOur common history
Crude oil, import price to Europe until August 2009
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
jan-60 jan-65 jan-70 jan-75 jan-80 jan-85 jan-90 jan-95 jan-00 jan-05 jan-10 jan-15
USD/barrel
real 2008 USD
Brussels, Dec 1, 2009Brussels, Dec 1, 2009 2525
Electricity och gas dominates in Europe (2003)Electricity och gas dominates in Europe (2003)
Final end use of net heat and electricity for EU25 + ACC4 + EFTA3 with origin of supply
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Industrial sector Residential sector Service sector
EJ heat
Solar/Wind/Other
Combustible Renewablesand Waste
Coal and Coal Products
Petroleum Products
Natural Gas
Electricity
Geothermal
Heat
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2003: Residential electricity och heat demands2003: Residential electricity och heat demands
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140
European heating index for the capital in each country, °C
Residential end use of net heat and
electricity, MJ/m2
ACC4
EFTA3
EU15
NMS10
EU15 average line
Luxembourg
Bulgaria
Lithuania
Poland
Finland
Belgium
United Kingdom
Denmark
Latvia
Austria
SpainPortugal
ItalyGreece
France
Estonia
Turkey
SwedenNorway
Malta
Czech republic
Croatia
Hungary Germany
Romania
Cyprus
Slovenia
%
Brussels, Dec 1, 2009Brussels, Dec 1, 2009 2727
German citiesGerman cities
District heat share of city heat demands in some German cities
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Au
gsb
urg
Be
rlin
Bie
lefe
ld
Bo
chu
m
Bo
nn
Bre
me
n
Da
rmst
ad
t
Do
rtm
un
d
Dre
sde
n
Dü
sse
ldo
rf
Erf
urt
Ess
en
Fra
nkf
urt
(O
de
r)
Fra
nkf
urt
am
Ma
in
Fre
ibu
rg im
Bre
isg
au
Gö
ttin
ge
n
Ha
lle a
n d
er
Sa
ale
Ha
mb
urg
Ha
nn
ove
r
Ka
rlsru
he
Kie
l
Ko
ble
nz
Kö
ln
Le
ipzi
g
Ma
gd
eb
urg
Ma
inz
Mü
lhe
im a
.d.R
uh
r
Mü
nch
en
Mö
nch
en
gla
db
ach
Nü
rnb
erg
Po
tsd
am
Re
ge
nsb
urg
Sa
arb
ruck
en
Sch
we
rin
Trie
r
We
ima
r
Wie
sba
de
n
Wu
pp
ert
al
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French citiesFrench cities
District heat share of city heat demands in some French cities
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Aja
ccio
Am
ien
s
Be
san
con
Bo
rde
au
x
Ca
en
Ca
yen
ne
Cle
rmon
t-F
err
an
d
Dijo
n
Fo
rt-d
e-F
ran
ce
Gre
no
ble
Le
Ha
vre
Lill
e
Lim
oge
s
Lyo
n
Ma
rse
ille
Me
tz
Mo
ntp
ellie
r
Na
ncy
Na
nte
s
Nic
e
Orl
ean
s
Pa
ris
Po
inte
-a-P
itre
Po
itier
s
Re
ims
Re
nne
s
Ro
uen
Sa
int
Den
is
Sa
int-
Etie
nn
e
Str
asb
ourg
To
ulo
use
Brussels, Dec 1, 2009Brussels, Dec 1, 2009 2929
Dutch citiesDutch cities
District heat share of city heat demands in some Dutch cities
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Am
ster
dam
Arn
hem
Ein
dhov
en
Ens
ched
e
Gro
ning
en
Hee
rlen
Rot
terd
am
s' G
rave
nhag
e
Tilb
urg
Utr
echt