brookings metropolitan policy program: global cities initiative, denver
TRANSCRIPT
GLOBAL CITIES INITIATIVEA J O I N T P R OJ ECT O F B R O O K I N GS A N D J P M O R GA N C H AS E
Denver, CO / June 26, 2013@bruce_katz #globalcities
10 millionjobs needed
More Jobs
81 millionpoor or near poor in 2000
More Jobs & Better Jobs
107 millionpoor or near poor in 2011
More Jobs & Better Jobs
A vision for the next American economy
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2 3
The next economy will be largely metropolitan
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3
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3 Metropolitan areas are driving innovation
METROINNOVATION
A vision for the next American economy
1 2 3
1
2 3
2009
Global GDP
19.9%US
21.0%BIC Countries
Source: International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Database, April 2013
2018
Global GDP
28.2%BIC Countries
17.6%US
Source: International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Database, April 2013
Global Metro Population
2009
50%
Global Metro Population
2030
60%
Source: UN Department of Economic-Social Affairs, World Urbanization Prospects, 2009
Economic Performance2011 - 2012
Highest Performing MetrosLowest Performing Metros
Source: Brookings, Global MetroMonitor, November 2012
Exports Share of GDP2010
13%
United States
29% 22%
15%
30%
Japan
China Canada India
European Union
15%
Source: Brookings analysis of WTO and EIU data, 2011
Transport Networks are Clogged and Congested
Can we get back into the export game?
billionUS manufactured exports 2010
$944
Japan
$680$944
United States GermanyFrance
$409
China
$1477
$1091
Top Manufacturing Exporting Countries2010, Billions
Source: World Trade Organization, 2011
$358
ServiceImports
ServiceExports
$518
US Service TradeBillions, 2010
$160 billiontrade surplus
Source: World Trade Organization, 2011 (Data reflect Commercial Services)
Can the U.S. play in thelow carbon revolution?
Sources: Brookings-Battelle Clean Economy Database (2011)
2.7 millionclean economy jobs
1.4 millionbiosciences jobs
4.8 millionIT jobs
2.4 millionfossil fuel jobs
2.7 millionclean economy jobs
Sources: Brookings-Battelle Clean Economy Database (2011), Brookings Analysis of Battelle, BLS, Moody’s Analytics data
$53.9 billionclean economy exports
Source: Brookings-Battelle Clean Economy Database (2011) and Moody’s Economy.com
$53.9 billionclean economy exports
NationalEconomy
$10,392
Export IntensityYearly Export Earnings per Job
$20,124
Clean Economy
Source: Brookings-Battelle Clean Economy Database (2011) and Moody’s Economy.com
Can the U.S. be anInnovation Nation?
US Names China On Intellectual-Property Watchlist
China's insufficient protection of intellectual property rights remains a top priority for U.S. trade policy, given the "troubling" direction of recent government measures aimed at supporting domestic innovation, the U.S. Trade Representative's office said Monday.
China Begins to Lose
Edge as World’s Factory
FloorJanuary 16, 2013
BEIJING - China is losing its competitive
edge as a low-cost manufacturing base, new
data suggest, with makers of everything
from handbags to shirts to basic electronic
components relocating to cheaper locales.
The shift - illustrated in weakened foreign
investment in China - has pluses and
minuses for an economy key to global
growth.
Shale Gas Fuels U.S. Manufacturing RenaissanceJanuary 10, 2013
Abundant, affordable domestic natural gas is helping to revitalize energy-intensive industries like petrochemical manufacturing.
“Looking back 20 years, chemicals were out nation’s top export product. But as recently as five years ago, we were on the verge of becoming an importer. Now the industry is back.
January 19, 2013The number of firms known to have “reshored” manufacturing to America is well under 100. Doubtless many more are doing so quietly. Examples range from the tiny, such as ET Water Systems, to the enormous, such as General Electric, which last year moved manufacturing of washing machines. fridges, and heaters back from China.
Reshoring Manufacturing: Coming Home
11%wage premiumin exporting firms
Source: Istrate, Rothwell & Katz, Export Nation (2010)
Greater likelihood of health and retirement benefits in export-intense industries
The U.S. must get smart...
fast
Source: US Census Bureau, 2010 American Community Survey
Hispanics
19%
African Americans
Non-Hispanic Whites
Asians
25%39%
56%
Educational AttainmentAssociate’s Degree or Higher
United States
36%
Source: US Census Bureau, 2010 American Community Survey
Hispanics
19%
African Americans
25%
Educational AttainmentAssociate’s Degree or Higher
The next economy will be largely metropolitan
1 2 31
2
3
Source: Brookings analysis of US Bureau of Economic Analysis data
ColoradoDenver, Colorado Springs
Population GDP
64% 64%
ColoradoDenver, Colorado Springs
Population GDP
Boulder, Fort Collins/Loveland, Grand Junction, Greeley, Pueblo
86% 85%
Service Exports
75%63%
Manufacturing Exports
Population
66%
Top 100 Metro ExportsShare of U.S. Totals
Source: Brookings, ExportNation 2012
Top 100 Metro Exports
Chemical Products
68% 76%
Business/Professional
Services
Computer/Electronic Products
78%
Population
66%
Share of U.S. Totals
Source: Brookings, ExportNation 2012
Top 100 Metro Trade Logistics
U.S. Air Cargo Weight
82% 88%
Foreign Waterborne
Cargo Weight
Airline Boardings
92%
Population
66%
Share of U.S. Totals
Source: Brookings analysis of US Census Bureau, FAA, and PIERS data (2009)
Aerial imagery: © DigitalGlobe, GeoEye, Sanborn, USGS, USDA FSA, warrior481.blogspot.com
Aerial imagery: © DigitalGlobe, GeoEye, Sanborn, USGS, USDA FSA, warrior481.blogspot.com
61,102
US DenverMetro
ManufacturingIntensity
8.5%
5.1%
Manufacturing JobsTop Manufacturing Sectors
Denver, CO Metro Manufacturing Dashboard
Food 12.5%Fabricated Metal Products 11.1%Computers & Electronics 10.3%Aerospace 10.0%Misc Manufacturing 9.9%
US DenverMetro
Manufacturing Growth
2010 Q1 - 2011 Q4
2.7%
0.1%
Source: Brookings, Locating American Manufacturing 2012
$10.2 B
Top 100Metros
DenverMetro
Export Intensity
9.8%7.2%
Export VolumeGoods & Services Exports
46.7%goods share of exports
Denver, CO Metro Export Dashboard
72,800Export Jobs
56.3%services share
of exports
Top Services SectorsTop Services Sectors
Travel & Tourism 17.2%
Business Services 13.9%
Royalties 8.4%
Top Goods SectorsTop Goods SectorsTransportation Equipment 6.2%
Petroleum and Coal Products 5.5%
Computers and Electronics 5.2%
Source: Brookings, ExportNation 2012
Denver, CO Metro Export Dashboard
Source: Brookings, ExportNation 2012
Denver’s Top Export DestinationsBy 2010 Volume (in millions)
Canada
Mexico
Japan
United Kingdom
China
$1,422.7
$773.0
$719.9
$716.5
$474.7
Germany
Brazil
Netherlands
South Korea
France
$428.8
$358.0
$294.4
$284.1
$268.1
Denver, CO Metro Global Aviation Dashboard
Source: Brookings “Global Gateways: International Aviation in Metropolitan America” (2012)
Share of Denver Passenger Air Travel to Major Global Regions
By 2011 Total Passengers
Denver’s Top Air Travel ConnectionsBy 2011 Total Passengers
Latin America/Caribbean
Western Europe
North America
36.7%
Rest of World
27.5%
16.4%
19.4%
Cancun 141,540
London
Toronto
Puerto Vallarta
Mexico City
121,891
92,456
71,175
72,945
1 2 31 2
3 Metropolitan areas are driving innovation
METROINNOVATION
Innovate Locally
T h e 1 0 T R A I T S o f
G L O B A L LY F L U E N T
M E T R O A R E A S
Globally Aware
Globally Fluent
Globally Oriented
Global FluencyThe level of understanding, competence, practice and reach that a metro area exhibits in an increasingly interconnected world economy. T h e 1 0 T R A I T S o f
G L O B A L LY F L U E N T
M E T R O A R E A S
1. Leadership with a Worldview
2. Legacy of Global Orientation
3. Specializations with a Global Reach
4. Adaptability to Global Dynamics
5. Culture of Knowledge and Innovation
6. Opportunity and Appeal to the World
7. International Connectivity
9. Government as Global Enabler
10. Compelling Global Identity
8. Investment for Strategic Priorities
T h e 1 0 T R A I T S o f
G L O B A L LY F L U E N T
M E T R O A R E A S
Governments
Philanthropy
Firms
Universities
Collaborate to Compete
1. Leadership with a Worldview
T h e 1 0 T R A I T S o f
G L O B A L LY F L U E N T
M E T R O A R E A S
STEM Jobs Requiring B.A.
Wage Premium
$42,967
$74,135
STEM Jobs261,210
22.4%
59.7%
STEM Job Share 2011
5. Culture of Knowledge and Innovation
Denver’s STEM Economy
T h e 1 0 T R A I T S o f
G L O B A L LY F L U E N T
M E T R O A R E A S
T h e 1 0 T R A I T S o f
G L O B A L LY F L U E N T
M E T R O A R E A S
Innovate Locally
Innovate Locally Advocate Nationally
State Governments ColoradoSpace Cluster
4 states joining Colorado to advocate for and promote space cluster initiatives
$20m competitive matching grants for early-stage tech development in CO
OhioThird Frontier & Edison Tech Centers
7 regional centers providing innovation & commercialization services
to foster innovation ecosystem in Ohio 2010-2016
$700 m
State Governments Florida
12 internationaloffices
$3 b state GDP added from export assistance & business development in 2011
Office of Freight, Logistics &Passenger Operations
Coordinates multimodal freight statewide by aligning with regional freight strategies
Enterprise Florida
Reform Immigration for
CompetitivenessOpen NewMarkets
Free Trade AgreementFree Trade AgreementFree Trade Agreement
Federal Government
Modernize & Prioritize Trade
Corridors
National Freight Strategy
Trans-Pacific Partnership
Europe
ExportFinancing
InternationalMarket
Intelligence
International Trade AdministrationExport-Import Bank
Innovate Locally Advocate Nationally
Innovate Locally Network GloballyAdvocate Nationally
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GLOBAL CITIES INITIATIVEA J O I N T P R OJ ECT O F B R O O K I N GS A N D J P M O R GA N C H AS E
Denver, CO / June 26, 2013@bruce_katz #globalcities