brokerage 2007 keynote norman lewis
TRANSCRIPT
The Disruptive FutureDr Norman LewisDirector of Technology ResearchOrange UK‘From idea to global product’4th IBBT Brokerage Event9 May Ghent
• More than any time in history,the Telecoms industry faces
a crossroads…
• One path leads to despairand utter hopelessness…
•The other to total extinction.
•Let us pray that we have the wisdom
to choose correctly…• Apologies to Woody Allen
Voice and time
Insane moments…
The definition of insanity is to dothe same thing over and overagain …
and expect different results !
Albert Einstein
Disruption ahead!
•A billion people in advanced
economies may have between
them two billion and six billions
spare hours
•a day....
•It would take the 340,000 workers
employed by the motion picture
and recording industries
in the United States...
•...assuming each worker worked
forty-hour weeks without taking
a single vacation...
•...between three and
eight and a half years...
•to equal the amountof free time
a billion people haveeach day!
•Beyond the sheer potential quantitative
capacity, however one wishes to discount it to
account for different levels of talent,
knowledge, and motivation,
a billion volunteers have qualities that make
them more likely to produce what others want
to read, see, listen to,
or experience...•Yochai Benkler The Wealth of Networks
The Pantomime Moment
…behind you!
The customer of thefuture
The Future of Innovation
Digital Children
Risk culture and childhood
Children and young people’sengagement and experience
with the new media isprofoundly shapedby their social life
The rise of bedroom culture
…and a decline of street culture
Digital Children
Digital technologyis used by childrento overcome theirexperienceof isolation throughcommunicatingwith their peers
A clash of cultures?
Parents regard new technology as an educational
tool while children regard it as a medium of
entertainment and connectivity;
Parents approach to the new media is underwritten
by the imperative of risk minimisation while children
use it in part to gain a measure of freedom from
adult supervision.
The evasion of the adult gaze
The changing character of childhood –particularly the shift from outdoors toindoors - means children want digitalapplications that are under theircontrol, help them to pass time,provide entertainment, connect withpeers and evade adult supervision
Self-expression as a state of being
Young people are facing not so mucha problem of communication but thatof self-expression
Identity and reputation
Creativity and sharing
The search foracknowledgmentis the key toonline activity
self-expression
as itself
a form of
communication
Communicationhas become modified
the communication of contenthas become less significant than the
network of communication
Collage cultureand digital expertise Young people are drawn to technologies that
are readily personalised and which can be used
individually;
Maintaining one’s social status depends on
the ability to personalise new technology;
Skills are acquired incidentally while popular culture
becomes a palette with which to paint the self.
Web2.0
Passive to active
Application-led to service-led
Client-server to peer-basedtopologies
One-size-fits-all to personalisation
Proprietary to open source
Six rules of Web 2.0…• Users Add Value:
• Look at eBay – the users are the application
• Network Effects by Default:• Create networks as a by product of users' self-interest
• The Perpetual Beta:• Applications are no longer software artefacts but ongoing services
• Software Above a Single Device:• Apps on single devices will be less valuable than those connected
• Data is the Next 'Intel Inside':• Hard to recreate data leads to competitive advantage
• A Platform beats an Application Every Time:• Re-use the data services of others
OPENECOSYSTEMS
Threats and Opportunities
Children are not naturallygood with technology
We still need R&D!
Cannibalism
R&D, predictability andexpected outcomes
Proliferation of Dubious Patents
• …the growth in the number of patents is nowexceeding the increase in R&D expenditure whichindicates that ‘cheap’ patents are being used as asubstitute for more R&D
• James Bessen & Robert Hunt
Era of short-term pragmatism andinstitutionalised risk-aversion
Enormous creative potential
Interdisciplinary problem solving
The future has alreadyhappened - its just
unevenly distributed
The future’s bright….?
