britain’s declining house sizes coming to the us?
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Britain’s Declining House SizesComing to the US?
MeasuringHousing
Affordability:MedianMultiple
Median House Price/Median Household
Income
(Used by UN, OECD and others)
Median Multiple (Price to Income Ratio)INTERNATIONAL:1980s-2000s
Single Family Multi Family0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500 2,438
1,029
1,227
653
Squa
re F
eet
Data fromRoyal Institute
of BritishArchitects
New House Size: US & UK2009
UnitedStates
UnitedKingdom
Large Family House Semi-Detached House Terrace House0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500 3,440
1,647
1,020
2,409
925
645
Squa
re F
eet
House Size Decline: United Kingdom1920 COMPARED TO 2009
1920
2009
Data fromRoyal Institute
of BritishArchitects
Terraced(Town House)
Semi-Detached(2-Family House
or Duplex)
Detached
World War I:Ypres (Belgium)
British WarCemetery: Ypres
British War Fatalities1 Million (2.5x WW20
David Lloyd GeorgePrime Minister
1917-1922
Homes fit for heroes
Suburban London
The Result
Elitist Disparagement (Interwar)• An affront to the eye
• ‘slums of the future
• 1938: “their destruction was ‘an eventuality that does much to reconcile one to the prospect of aerial bombardment’.
• …the new style of homes represented 'something worse than the meanness of poverty - the meanness of spirit'
World War II:St. Paul’s (London)
Winston ChurchillPrime Minister
1940-19451951-1955
Post World War IIClement Atlee, Prime Minister
1945-1951: With Truman & Stalin
Town & CountryPlanning Act: 1947
Green Belts
Post World War IICouncil Houses
Post World War IICouncil Houses
Sir Peter HallUrbanologist
Margaret ThatcherPrime Minister
1979-1990
BarkerReports
… to reduce the long-term trend in house price increases to 1.1% a year –compared with the current rate of more than 9% a year – would require 260,000 homes to be built annually. Since then, an average of just 115,000 homes have been built in the private sector each year.
Post World War II: USHOME OWNERSHIP INCREASE
Levittown (NY):Birthplace of theAmerican Dream
Lakewood, California(Los Angeles Area)
1900
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
From Census Bureau
Home Ownership Rate: 1900-2013UNITED STATES AVERAGE
Figure 33
• U.S. nationally syndicated newspaper columnist Neal Pearce implied that the Columbine High School massacre, was caused by urban sprawl.
• Suburban bankruptcy predictions
• Faceless estates. Soulless financial districts.
Elite Disparagement
1950
1960
1970
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10Less Restrictive MarketsMore Restrictive Markets: Outside CaliforniaMore Restrictive Markets: California
Med
ian
Mul
tipl
e
Housing Affordability 1950-2012MAJOR US METROPOLITAN AREAS: MEDIAN MULTIPLE
Median Multiple: Median House Price divided by Median Household Income
Figure 35
Greater PriceVolatility
$550,000 (2007)Houston Exurbs
(Katy)4,500 square feet
Lot: 0.4 Acre
$550,000 (2007)Los Angeles Exurbs
(Simi Valley)1,700 square feet
Lot: 0.1 Acre
MANILA SICK
Priorities areWrong
• Why did people move to the cities?• Not light rail, good urban planning• To have better lives
• Yet urban planning is – Reducing the standard of living and increasing poverty
• Need to replace policy based on means (inputs)– To policy based on ends (Outputs)– Maintain the standard of living & reduce poverty
Anti-Smart Growth Government Re-electedNEW ZEALAND SEPTEMBER 20, 2014
David Seymour