britain 2012 and the implications for government communication

© Ipsos MORI

[email protected] [email protected]

@IpsosMORI @BenM_IM @MattTaylor_IM

© Ipsos MORI

The mood of the nation: a moment of change? 2

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A game changer? 3

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The feel-good ‘bounce’ beat expectations

11

6

8

5

25

8

29

17

64

86

63

78

…the mood of the public

…the way Britain is viewed

by the rest of the world

30 Nov-6 Dec 2011

Q. What effect, if any, do you think the 2012 Olympics will have / has had on…?

Source: Ipsos MORI for British Future

10-13 August 2012

30 Nov-6 Dec 2011

10-13 August 2012

% very/slightly positive effect % very/slightly negative effect

Base: c1,000 online interviews, adults 16-75 in GB, 30 Nov-6 Dec 2011, 10-13 August 2012

4

© Ipsos MORI

A cultural reference point

We can deliver. We can do big things. The Olympics reminded us how great it feels to be successful… You know, I've spent three years trying to explain the Big Society...they did it beautifully in just three weeks.

We just think about the Olympics and Paralympic games. It was a triumph for Britain…Mo Farah. A true Brit. And a true hero for our country. We succeeded because of the outstanding volunteers, the Games Makers who are here with us today, all 70,000 Games makers. They put a mirror up to Britain and showed us the best of ourselves..

“ ” “

”

5

© Ipsos MORI

Our polls: 11 point Labour lead since May…

0

10

20

30

40

50

Jan-10

Mar-10

May-10

Jul-10

Sep-10

Nov-10

Jan-11

Mar-11

May-11

Jul-11

Sep-11

Nov-11

Jan-12

Mar-12

May-12

Jul-12

Sep-12

Q. How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?

2010 General Election

Base: c. 1,000 British adults each month through June 2008; c. 500 British adults thereafter Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

Local elections 2012

UK recession 2010 Q4

Euro veto Dec 2011

6

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-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

Jan-

97

May

-97

Sep

-97

Jan-

98

May

-98

Sep

-98

Jan-

99

May

-99

Sep

-99

Jan-

00

May

-00

Sep

-00

Jan-

01

May

-01

Sep

-01

Jan-

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-02

Sep

-02

Jan-

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May

-03

Sep

-03

Jan-

04

May

-04

Sep

-04

Jan-

05

May

-05

Sep

-05

Jan-

06

May

-06

Sep

-06

Jan-

07

May

-07

Sep

-07

Jan-

08

May

-08

Sep

-08

Jan-

09

May

-09

Sep

-09

Jan-

10

May

-10

Sep

-10

Jan-

11

May

-11

Sep

-11

Jan-

12

May

-12

Sep

-12

Q. Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same or get worse over the next 12 months?

Base: c. 1,000 British adults each month

+28

-46 -56 -48

+23

Inde

x (g

et b

ette

r min

us g

et w

orse

)

-64

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

-9

Sustained economic pessimism…

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

7

© Ipsos MORI

Base: representative sample of c.1,000 British adults age 18+ each month Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index

Economic and unemployment worries

Q. What do you see as the most/other important issues facing Britain today?

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Jun '97 S

ep '97 D

ec '97 M

ar '98 Jun '98 S

ep '98 D

ec '98 M

ar '99 Jun '99 S

ep '99 D

ec '99 M

ar '00 Jun '00 S

ep '00 D

ec '00 M

ar '01 Jun '01 S

ep '01 D

ec '01 M

ar '02 Jun '02 S

ep '02 D

ec '02 M

ar '03 Jun '03 S

ep '03 D

ec '03 M

ar '04 Jun '04 S

ep '04 D

ec '04 M

ar '05 Jun '05 S

ep '05 D

ec '05 M

ar '06 Jun '06 S

ep '06 D

ec '06 M

ar '07 Jun '07 S

ep '07 D

ec '07 M

ar '08 Jun '08 S

ep '08 D

ec '08 M

ar '09 Jun '09 S

ep '09 D

ec '09 M

ar '10 Jun '10 S

ep '10 D

ec '10 M

ar '11 Jun '11 S

ep '11 D

ec '11 M

ar '12 Jun '12 S

ep '12

Unemployment

Economy

Europe/EU

8

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Q. Which 2 or 3 of these, if any, do you think are the main barriers to people in general being able to buy a property?

Source: Halifax/Ipsos MORI Housing Market Confidence Tracker

‘Priced-out’ yes, but job security key barrier to buying

Base: 1,960 British adults 16+, 22-28 June 2012

9

58%

56%

31%

31%

20%

12%

12%

10%

6%

5%

5%

3%

50%

59%

39%

19%

23%

11%

13%

6%

4%

4%

6%

4%

Raise deposit Job security

Household finances Availability of mortgages

Rising property prices Concerns - interest rate rises

Fees and costs of buying a … Falling property prices

Level of stamp duty Shortage of the right type of …

Shortage of property for sale Don't know

All LA/HA tenants

© Ipsos MORI

23

43

42

45

35

12

% Higher % Lower

November 2011

April 2003

Q. When they reach your age, do you think your children will have a higher or lower quality of life than you, or about the same?

But downbeat: a ‘lost generation’?

Base: 1,006 British adults aged 18+, 19th-21st November 2011 Source: Ipsos MORI

10

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Hysteresis

A year of youth unemployment reduces earnings 10 years later by about 6% and means that individuals spend an extra month unemployed every year up to their mid-30s. These effects diminish slowly in later adult life but are still present well into peoples' 40s..

“ ” Professor Paul Gregg and Lindsey Macmillan,

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-16156849

11

© Ipsos MORI

Q. Which one of these sentences do you agree with the most?

But young believe own hard work will determine destiny

Base: 2757 11-16 year olds Source: Ipsos MORI Young People Omnibus (Jan – April 2012)

84%

5% 9%

3%

It doesn’t matter what background you’re from,

anyone can be a success in life if they try hard enough

It doesn’t matter how hard you try, you’ll only be successful in life if you’re from the right background

Not stated Neither of these

12

© Ipsos MORI

58 57 51

49 49 42 43

49

51 51

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Q. People have different views about the ideal society. For each of these statements, please tell me which one comes closest to your ideal.

Moving towards individualism (slowly)?

Base: c. 1,000 British adults – re-percentaged to exclude don’t knows Source: Ipsos MORI

% A society where individuals are encouraged to look after themselves

A society which emphasises the social and collective

provision of welfare

13

Presenter

Presentation Notes

Updated

© Ipsos MORI

55%

27% 22%

43%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

1987 1989 1991 1993 1994 1995 1996 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Agree

Disagree

Against welfare…

“The government should spend more money on welfare benefits for the poor, even if it leads to higher taxes”

Source: Ipsos MORI analysis of BSA data

14

© Ipsos MORI

Cohort not lifecycle effect…

Base: c.2,000-4,000 GB Adults for each wave of British Social Attitudes Survey Source: Ipsos MORI analysis of BSA data

54+ 61+

65 + 33-53 40-60 44-64

19-32 30-43 25-38

29 and below 0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Pre war (before 1945) Baby boomers (1945-65) Generation x (1966-1979) Generation y (1980-2000)

Total % agree government should spend more on welfare

15

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Complex Britannia reigns

© Ipsos MORI

Britain: progressing but breaking

Progressing Breaking

Source: Ipsos MORI Britain 2012

17

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13

31

26

20

610 12722

40 3630

4031

25

39

211521 11

1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

% Strongly disagree % Tend to disagree % Tend to agree % Strongly agree

“I would like Britain to be the way it used to be”

Proud but backward-looking

Source: Ipsos MORI Real Trends

18

© Ipsos MORI

Q. Looking ahead 6 months from now, do you expect the economy in your local area to be much stronger, somewhat stronger, about the same, somewhat weaker, or much weaker than it is now?

A Global @dvisor – June 2012 – G@33 The Economic Pulse

c500-,1000 online adults per country 16/18-64

24% 67%

57% 54%

44% 39% 39%

31% 25% 25%

22% 21%

20% 18%

16% 15% 15%

14% 14%

12% 10%

9% 9%

8% 7% 7%

Total

Saudi Arabia

Argentina

Mexico

Turkey

*Denmark

Germany

Poland

South Korea

Spain

Sweden

Great Britain

Hungary

% Much stronger / Somewhat stronger

Looking ahead: pessimism reigns 19

© Ipsos MORI

The UK is a good country in which to invest...

Q. Taking into account all the things which you think are important, how favourable or unfavourable is your overall opinion or impression of the UK – is a good country in which to invest

Base: c.500 - 1,000 residents aged 16-64 (18-64 in the US and Canada) in each country; July 2010

69% 66%

63% 62%

59% 59% 58%

54% 52% 51% 51%

49% 36%

33% 31% 30% 30%

24% 24%

21% 21% 20%

18% 15%

5% 9% 4%

3% 9% 6% 9% 11% 13% 10% 9% 14% 17% 14% 17% 19% 13% 24% 32% 25% 22% 27% 32% 30%

Hungary South Africa

Mexico Indonesia

Brazil Poland Turkey

S. Arabia Argentina

China Russia

India Italy

Canada South Korea

Spain US

Australia Great Britain

Germany Sweden Belgium France Japan

Favourable Unfavourable

20

© Ipsos MORI

Looking ahead 6 months from now, do you expect the economy in your local area to be much stronger, somewhat stronger, about the same, somewhat weaker, or much weaker than it is now?

…and makes a positive difference

Q. Taking into account all the things which you think are important, how favourable or unfavourable is your overall opinion or impression of the UK – makes a positive difference in the world

Base: c.500 - 1,000 residents aged 16-64 (18-64 in the US and Canada) in each country; July 2010

63% 60% 59% 58% 58% 57%

54% 51%

49% 45% 45% 44% 43% 42% 41% 40%

38% 36%

32% 28%

26% 22% 21%

15%

7% 7% 9% 8% 7% 7% 7% 9% 20% 7% 18% 8% 8% 12% 9% 17% 14% 22% 17% 21% 20% 22% 23% 22%

South Africa Indonesia

India Brazil

Poland Hungary

Mexico China

Saudi Arabia US

Argentina Canada

South Korea Australia

Russia Turkey

Italy Great Britain

Spain Sweden France

Germany Belgium

Japan

Favourable Unfavourable

21

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We are (rightly) self-aware of some characteristics 22

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But what of achievement?

Q. Which 2 or 3 would you pick out as areas where Britain is strongest/ weakest compared with other countries?

Base: 1,003 British adults, 25-31 May 2012 Source: Ipsos MORI / Design Council

35 22 11 11

7 6 5 3

-19 -19

-45

0

25 23 12 9 8 8 7 3

-4 -5 -8 -22

University Education

Cultural diversity

Engineering

Design Entrep’ship leadership

New inventions/ innovation

New technology

Primary & secondary

educ’ system

Management

Manufacturing

Transport network

Television Tourists attraction

Fashion Architecture Banking/ finance

Sport PharmA Retail Luxury goods

Film Construction Motor industry

Language skills

23

Inputs

Outputs

© Ipsos MORI

Q. To what extent do you agree or disagree with each of the following statements:

Many think government has done too much, but worry about the vulnerable is increasing

Base: c500 British adults, 9 – 11 June 2012 Source: Ipsos MORI

June ‘12

May ‘10

June ‘12

May ‘10

32

31

30

19

33

33

38

31

15

13

14

19

8

7

5

8

% Strongly Agree % Agree % Disagree Strongly Disagree

In recent years government and public services have tried

to do too much, and people should take more

responsibility for their own lives (Base: 515)

I am worried that government and public services will do too

little to help people in the years ahead (Base: 490)

We’re also not sure what want from Government 24

© Ipsos MORI

Please read each pair of statements and decide which comes closest to your own opinion

Cognitive polyphasia: government intervention

2012: approx. 2000 2012: Ipsos MORI Omnibus September

20 19 28 12 17

1 2 3 4 5 A: It is the government's responsibility to influence people's behaviour to encourage healthy lifestyles

B: The government should not get involved with interfering in people's lifestyles

Agree much more with A

Agree much more with B NA

25

© Ipsos MORI

Cognitive polyphasia: localism

On the one hand, the public support quite radical

approaches to greater local control

On the other, they want fairness, despise the

postcode lottery and want uniformity of standards

26

© Ipsos MORI

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

77%

15%

8%

Monarchy or republic?

Q. Would you favour Britain becoming a Republic or remaining a Monarchy?

Base: c. 500-1,000 GB 18+ except four polls (Dec 01, Feb 02, May 02 and Apr 04) all c. 1,000 GB 16+ Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

Death of Princess

Diana

18% in 1969 (Gallup) Republic

Monarchy

27

© Ipsos MORI

0

10

20

30

40

%

Trust in politics is falling

Q. How much do you trust a British government of any party to place the needs of this country above the interests of their own political party?

% “almost never”

Source: British Social Attitudes, 1986-2009

28

© Ipsos MORI

Some remarkable changes; but new challenges to come 29

© Ipsos MORI

Communication & Behaviour Change in Britain 2012

Matthew Taylor

© Ipsos MORI

31 Title

© Ipsos MORI

32

© Ipsos MORI

33 Communications & Behaviour Change

© Ipsos MORI

34 What I’m going to cover

1 Why understanding society is important

2 Government communication priorities & lessons learned

3 Looking to the future

© Ipsos MORI

35 Factors affecting attitudes & behaviours

Contextual

Social

Personal

‘System 2’ Rational, Logical

‘System 1’ Unconscious,

Instinctive

© Ipsos MORI

36 Choices affected by others

Behavioural economics and qualitative research - a marriage made in heaven? Wendy Gordon, International Journal of Market Research, Vol. 53, No. 2, 2011

© Ipsos MORI

37 The power of context

Contextual

Social

Personal

‘System 2’ Rational, Logical

‘System 1’ Unconscious,

Instinctive

© Ipsos MORI

38 Information overload

1986 2007

© Ipsos MORI

48 Campaigns

Creative is King

A good story, well told

http://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/publications/1356/Top-10-Advertising-Lessons-Learned.aspx

© Ipsos MORI

52 Insight for communication

Peer Research Social Listening Ethnography

Eye Tracking Biometrics Social Spaces

© Ipsos MORI

56 Summary

1. Britain in 2012 is a complex, multi-faceted society in which resilience, tolerance and good humour can sit alongside pessimism and individualism.

2. In a distracted but connected world these aspects of society may increasingly influence the attitudes and behaviours of individuals

3. This presents some challenges for government communication, but it also creates opportunities

4. Some well-known lessons in good communication still hold true, but some new ones need to be learned

5. In the future, communication research will have to change to understand all of this; adapting old techniques and adopting new methods and technologies.

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