brings challenges and opportunity · wealth distribution, limited employment opportunities, and...

Volume XX | June 2019

Today, more than 55% of the world’s population lives

in an urban setting—a figure that is estimated to rise

to 68% by 2050. Urban growth at that scale promises

a massive spike in working-age people entering

the global workforce. Harnessing the productive

capabilities of this surge of workers brings the

potential for innovation, development, and reduced

inequality worldwide.

Conversely, the mismanagement of these growing

urban centers and the failure to provide access to

meaningful work for the world’s burgeoning youth

population could serve to reinforce a series of

troubling negative patterns, including unequal

wealth distribution, limited employment opportunities,

and continued mismanagement of both urban and

rural land.

Summary of Unique Tools & Applications

Hot Spot Analysis is a spatial statistics tool that calculates the

significance of feature clustering in a dataset. For this study,

Hot Spot Analysis was applied to public protest data between

January 2017 and April 2019 across North Africa (including

Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Libya, and Egypt).

Persistent Change Monitoring™ (PCM) is an image-based

change detection data layer that uses Maxar’s patented

scale- and sensor-independent algorithms to highlight areas of

human construction and other activity. PCM eliminates the need

to manually scan imagery for feature change—saving up to 90%

of the typical costs associated with updating and maintaining GIS

databases. For this study, PCM was used to examine patterns

of urban growth and development in the Tunisian capital of Tunis

since 1990.

Human Landscape is Maxar’s foundational human geography

dataset. Human Landscape leverages our industry-leading

high-resolution satellite imagery to significantly enrich

thousands of publicly available and conflated data sources.

Each dataset comprises 60+ individual data layers across

thirteen standard human geography themes. These datasets

reduce operating costs and accelerate time-to-mission for

complex geospatial analysis or geospatial taskings by providing

up-to-date and analysis-ready foundational data. For this study,

Human Landscape was used to map critical or important

infrastructure within Tunis.

A Youth Movement: Internal Migration Brings Challenges and Opportunity

This issue of the Maxar Spotlight will demonstrate how

Maxar’s geospatial technologies and capabilities can

be used to analyze these inevitable urban changes and

population trends. In doing so, we hope to enable key

stakeholders to craft proactive policies that improve

urban planning in meaningful ways.

Majority Urban Population as of 2019

Projected to Have a Majority Urban Population by 2050

RURAL TO URBAN POPULATION CHANGE IN AFRICA

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S P O T L I G H T

Social Unrest

Youth unrest in North Africa has been a topic of concern

since the “Arab Spring” uprisings in 2011. While government

reforms and appeasement have reduced the number of

large-scale protests, lasting change has been elusive.

Population growth on the African continent and the

resulting “youth bulge” have intensified the feelings of hope-

lessness and frustration associated with unemployment and

the delay of family formation among young people. Local,

regional, and international governing bodies are struggling

to provide much-needed jobs for their growing working

populations.

Tunisia has experienced a particularly significant amount

of protests in the past two years as a result of popular

dissatisfaction with the country’s political and economic

state. Rural distress migration spurred by a lack of econom-

ic development has pushed many youths into urban areas.

Unfortunately, their continued disenfranchisement and

struggle to find opportunities leads to outward migration or

involvement in informal activities—both of which perpetuate

economic stagnation. It is estimated that 60% of working

age males under 40 and 80% of working age females under

40 are employed in the informal economy.

Poorly managed youth bulges increase the risk of civil

unrest, especially when both education levels and employ-

ment rates are high among working age young people.

Among Arab Spring protest participants, 16% had no formal

education, 32% had completed secondary education, and

36% had some higher education. Protests and strikes are

common in attempts to effect policy change—but when

unanswered, violent conflict may be used to force the

government to meet the stated demands of protesters. In

response, some governments have increased access to

higher education—a change that paradoxically serves to

further saturate the job market with overqualified

individuals expecting to find jobs with high pay in their field.

30% Unemployment rate among college graduates in Tunisia

Population

Protests (January 2017-April 2019)

Youth unemployment (%)

18%

677

35.7 million

24%

1,388

41.3 million

36%

1,848

11.5 million

42%

325

6.4 million

34%

248

97.6 million

Morocco

Algeria

Tunisia

Libya

Egypt

PROTESTS AND YOUTH UNEMPLOYMENT

3

S P O T L I G H T

The following Hot Spot Analysis highlights locations

across North Africa and within Tunisia that are statistical

significant loci for protests. The analysis considers the

frequency and geographic clustering of reported protests

between January 2017 and April 2019.

Listed below the North Africa map are population growth

trends for major cities that were considered protest hot

spots. Tunis, Tunisia accounts for both the most protests

across North Africa and the second-highest average annual

growth between 2005 and 2015 (behind only Cairo, Egypt).

ALGERIA

LIBYA EGYPT

MOROCCO

Hot Spot - 99% Confidence



Protests or Riots

Average Annual Population Growth Rate, 2005-2015 (The World Bank)

Casablanca, Morocco: 0.83%

Rabat, Morocco: 0.93%

Oran, Algeria: 0.90%

Algiers, Algeria: 1.28%

Tunis, Tunisia: 1.61%

Sfax, Tunisia: 0.89%

Tripoli, Libya: 0.69%

Cairo, Eygpt: 2.15%

Tunis

Sfax

Kairouan

KasserineSidi Bouzid

Gafsa

Tataouine

1

2

3

4

6

7

8

5

2

34 5

6

78

1

HOT SPOT ANALYSIS OF PROTESTS SINCE 2017 DEPICTS STRONG DISCONTENT IN TUNISIA

HOT SPOT ANALYSIS WITHIN TUNISIA

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S P O T L I G H T

Rural to Urban Migration in Tunisia

Internal migration is approaching crisis levels in North

Africa. The region’s rural population is rapidly decreasing

while its urban population is quickly growing. Highly mobile

youth represent the main share of migrants moving world-

wide, and in Africa, the majority of young migrants seeking

work in new locations are from rural communities. Youth

unemployment and rapid urbanization are among the main

impacts of this internal migration.

While rural-to-urban youth migration can reinvigorate

communities with remittances and new skills and ideas

upon migrants’ return, distress migration can drain rural

communities of an important portion of their labor force.

Furthermore, young people in Africa moving from rural to

urban settings regionally or within their own countries

often look to leave agriculture behind—further limiting

development potential in that sector.

The map below users Maxar’s Persistent Change Monitoring

(PCM) capability to depict urban development within Tunis

between 2004 and 2017. PCM is an image-based change

detection data layer that uses patented scale- and

sensor-independent algorithms to highlight areas of human

construction or other activity. Its ability to provide rapid

insight into historical patterns of development makes it an

ideal tool for analyzing internal migration in North Africa.

See next page for imagery

of zoom-in boxes

PERSISTENT CHANGE MONITORING (PCM) DETECTS URBAN CHANGE IN TUNIS

5

S P O T L I G H T

Subsequent analysis of population statistics and trends

identified several areas in Tunis, Tunisia that will

require greater attention as the urban planning process

accelerates. For example, Cite El Khadra (2,169 km²) and

Le Kram (1,859 km²) are the delegations with the most

PCM-detected urban development since 2004. These two

delegations are characterized by high tourism, strong

public transportation, and numerous museums and

educational institutions.

While development is important in these areas because

of attempts to reinvigorate foreign investment and

tourism, there are other areas that are in desperate

need of improved urban planning—including Sidi Hassine,

a delegation on the western edge of Tunis. Between 2009

and 2014, it increased in population size almost double that

of any other delegation. It currently has roughly 110,000

residents and has the highest number of inbound migrants.

It also has the largest population in the 20-39 year old

range and the highest percentage of unemployed college

graduates (27%).

(Photo: Fethi Belaid, Getty Images)

BIVARIATE ANALYSIS OF TUNIS (% OF GRADUATES UNEMPLOYED AND POPULATION AGED 20-39)

7

S P O T L I G H T

Finally, relevant features and points of interest (POI) were

extracted from Maxar’s Human Landscape datasets to

provide a basic measurement of critical infrastructure in

each delegation across Tunis. These datasets leverage our

industry-leading high resolution satellite imagery to enrich

thousands of publicly available data sources and provide

rich attribution and metadata for advanced analysis. For

this publication, a total of 4,014 unique features were

mapped within Tunis—including government POI, educational

institutions, tourist locations, commercial POI, medical

facilities, and public transportation POI.

While the delegation of Sidi Hassine has accounted for the

fourth-most urban development (1,670 km²) in Tunis since

2004 (and the sixth-most when normalized by population

size), its critical infrastructure lags behind the rest of the

city. When critical infrastructure POI totals are normalized

by population size for each delegation, Sidi Hassine

has the second-lowest rating. This further highlights

the vulnerability of both internal migrants and current

residents of Sidi Hassine.

HUMAN LANDSCAPE DATASET DEPICTS CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY (TOTAL POI NORMALIZED BY POPULATION)

Critical / Valuable Infrastructure:• Government POI• Educational Institutions• Tourist Locations

• Commercial POI• Medical Facilities• Public Transportation POI

Low High

Number of Critical Infrastructure POI Relative to Population Size

(Vulnerable) (Limited Vulnerability)

Sidi Hassine

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S P O T L I G H T

CONCLUSION

Managing the continued urbanization of North Africa

(like the vulnerable communities of Tunis discussed in

this publication) will require a multi-pronged approach

focusing on sustainable development of urban spaces, the

equitable distribution of infrastructure and social services,

and intentional care for the region’s fragile environmental

state. The future of sustainable land use in areas

experiencing urbanization will be found in containing

urban sprawl, promoting responsible densification within

existing city infrastructure, and ensuring that local

communities are involved in the sustainable expansion into

peri-urban areas (as depicted below using Persistent-

Change Monitoring data).

(Photo: Mohamed Messara/EPA; The New York Times)

PCM DEPICTS THE SCALE OF RECENT DEVELOPMENT IN PERI-URBAN TUNIS

9

S P O T L I G H T

But there is, perhaps, an alternative to unchecked

urbanization for modern-day North Africa. Despite

compelling data-driven evidence that rural-to-urban

migration is accelerating, most young people express a

preference to stay in their local communities if work (even

agricultural work) were available. Most experts believe that

modernization through technology and innovative market

solutions can help rural youth engage meaningfully with

their work while earning healthy livelihoods. Development

in the agriculture sector presents an opportunity for

economic growth, reduced poverty, and increased food

security. Additionally, involving youth in decision-making

processes concerning governance, public spaces,

inheritance issues, and accountability in the land sector is

the key to creating a successful, sustainable future for the

next generation of North Africans.

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S P O T L I G H T

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