brief overview of wine and olive industries including some important connections bvl and ogal 2008...
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Brief Overview of Wine and Olive Industries
Including some important connections
BVL and OGAL 2008
Paul Miller
Southern Australian Recent Climate
Two unexpected problems from 2006
Odd weather
Politics & Water (efficiency)
La Nina
Wine Industry Overview
• AWBC November 2007 Analysis
• View from my vineyard
World wine consumption
08
Source - AWBC Nov 2007
This estimate represents the third successive year that world wine production has declined.
Source - AWBC Nov 2007
Past and projected winegrape harvests Australia
Source - AWBC Nov 2007
Past and projected wine productionAustralia
Source - AWBC Nov 2007
Past and projected export, import and domestic – Australian wine
Source - AWBC Nov 2007
AWBC Nov 07 – selected comments
• Extended period of lower Australian harvests to come• Bottled sales growth is about red• Red not planted recently so behind white in ability to
recover• New plantings deterred by MDB water issues • Still some stock on hand – 465M l at June 07 (650M l
year before)
• Value building is the key – region, quality, price point
Australian Wine Industry 2008 – view from my vineyard
• 06/07 was a shock• 08 looking better• Grape prices on the way up - wine company responses
and actual supply hard to reconcile so far• Water trends – La Nina and politics• Still need scale more than ever in 5.5Billion industry• Need to promote regions• Adapt canopies and monitor temperatures – climate
warming?• Technology and use of observations critical
Scale in Barossa a significant advantage
BVL
07/08
Olive Industry Overview
Big Picture
• Strong global market growth
• Wealth, population, health
• Limited agricultural land
Australian responses, industry status and industry developments
Mistry, D., Sep/Oct 2007 – Bull market fats and oils next 7 to 10 years. The mother of all bull markets?
Factors affecting world olive oil prices
• Supply and demand – current EU crop ave.• Interaction/substitution between EVO and
ROO• Pressure from non olive EU countries • Competitors being used for fuel• Wide range of qualities within categories that
are not well defined or improperly defined• New markets expanding rapidly – USA,
China, Asia and India• Increasing wealth of population driving
demand for luxury and healthy products
The expert’s comment on Extra Virgin Olive Oil
• Good balance of fatty acids incl. monos, pufas• Antioxidants and minor components• Poly-phenols and phyto-sterols• Oleacanthin• Natural• Mechanical extraction• Extra Virgin Olive Oil – ‘the perfect oil’
Forecast to double by 2014
Lesson for Australia with its high quality, healthy products –
Product Differentiation
Industry Conditions - The Global Scene
Product Differentiation and Branding
• Olive Oil is a brand (Mack, AOF 2007)• Extra Virgin is a brand (Mack, AOF 2007)• Others are looking at both terms with regard
to their products (potentially good and bad for us)
Preliminary Brand Designs
Example 4 page DL flyer
Example Neck tags
• Point of sale
• Regional display
• Targeted and Measured Media Campaign
Product DifferentiationHow will our product be
different/better?
• Good brand• Code of Practice (ACCC standing behind it)• Promotion and good images• Simple but effective and advanced chemistry
and organoleptics e.g. oil life• Random testing• Continuous improvement – measure results• Initial focus on domestic market• Emulate wine industry
The Australian Olive Industry – 2007 & Future Oil Production
• Context - World annual - 3 million tonnes of oil increasing by about 3% p.a.
Australia – annual olive oil production metric tonnes
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008?
In 2014 expect 25,000 metric tonnes+ (current domestic consumption 35,000 tonnes++)
Australian Olive Industry – Other physical data
• 2007 table olive production – about 1,000-2000 tonnes (mech harvest?)
• About 2,500 olive growers & about 87,000 acres of trees – 40 of these growers produce 90% of the olives and oil
• 40% of olive oil exported (USA, China, EU, Asia, Argentina)
Australian Olive IndustryGrove Locations
San Francisco
Laredo
El Paso
S Oregon
Equivalent latitudes
Summary Features of Australian Olive Oil Production
Climate
Soils and water
New plantations - Chile
Traditional Production Spain
Colossus
2005
2006
2007 - VOOP
Large scale olives Australia –well-drained soils + technology = some success – world’s best
like the past wine industry
Australian wine and olive oil in the world
Actually a lot
to develop