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Page 1: Brief - WGSIwgsi.org/.../15PER001_OpenAccessEnergy_Brief_ICSD.pdf · 6 OpenAccess Energy BRIEF 2. Energy As Opportunity age of ˚ ve. If the combustion of traditional fuels continues

Brief Power to change the world

Page 2: Brief - WGSIwgsi.org/.../15PER001_OpenAccessEnergy_Brief_ICSD.pdf · 6 OpenAccess Energy BRIEF 2. Energy As Opportunity age of ˚ ve. If the combustion of traditional fuels continues

Founded in 2009, Waterloo Global

Science Initiative (WGSI) is a non-pro� t

partnership between Perimeter Institute

for � eoretical Physics and the University

of Waterloo. WGSI’s mandate is to

promote dialogue around complex global

issues and to catalyze the long-range

thinking necessary to advance ideas,

opportunities and strategies for a secure

and sustainable future. � e organization’s

core activities include its Summit

Series, Blueprints, Fellowship for young

leaders, and a range of impact activities

programmed around each summit topic

and its outcomes.

Authors

Michael Brooks, Nigel Moore

Editors

Hayley Rutherford, Julie Wright

Subeditor

Fiona MacDonald

Design by

Intent

forgoodintent.com

Cover photo credit:

UN Women/Gaganjit Singh

©2015 Waterloo Global Science Initiative

3 1. Introduction

4 2. Energy As Opportunity

8 3. � e Pathways to Energy Access

14 4. Learning by Example

18 5. Behind � e Scenes

26 6. Next Steps

28 7. Appendix: Knowledge Gaps

Contents

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OpenAccess Energy BRIEF 3

Across the world, 1.3 billion people live without access to electricity. A further billion have unreliable access. For the last 15 years, the world has been proceeding without a development goal related to energy, and although one will � nally be in place at the end of 2015, its importance has been underplayed. UN Sustainable Development Goal 7 – ensuring access to a� ordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy for all by 2030 – is just one of 17, many of which would likely be solved by meeting goal 7.1

What’s more, we are not on track to meet this goal. Although governments, NGOs, communities and researchers all over the world are trying to solve the problem of access to energy, the scale of the problem is far bigger than the scale of current solutions.

Sixty years of global e� orts directed at mass electri� cation have failed to deliver reliable access to modern fuels and electricity to approximately one-third of the people on Earth. � at is a huge problem: reliance on kerosene, diesel and biomass have negative impacts on economic opportunities, the local environment, health and climate change. � ere is a compelling need to develop low carbon solutions to address the long term risk to climate change from the use of fossil fuels and meet the growing demand for electricity and energy access. However, if current trends continue, that simply won’t happen.

According to the International Energy Agency’s most optimistic scenario for future energy access, the number of people worldwide without electricity in the year 2030 is projected to remain above 1 billion. In Sub-Saharan Africa the problem is projected to get worse, not better. � e fact that population growth is outstripping electri� cation means that by 2030 the number of people without electricity will have risen by 10% (16% in rural areas) from 2009 levels.2

Clearly, our approach to opening up energy access has to change.

In April 2016, WGSI will host OpenAccess Energy, a summit addressing the global energy access challenge that is motivated by these issues. WGSI’s summits bring together a multidisciplinary, multinational, and multigenerational group of stakeholders for a four-day intensive event where they develop an actionable framework for addressing a complex global issue.

In any “grand challenge” scenario, many e� orts are unknowingly duplicated and valuable ideas are lost in the silos of disciplines. WGSI’s expertise lies in convening facilitated conversations to advance breakthrough thinking. Our goal is to create the necessary space for alignment of di� erent organizations and disciplines to deliver e� ective solutions. Our organizational impact comes from fostering connections between individuals and stewarding the development of strategic partnerships to meet the global energy access challenge.

Although an enormous amount of research has been carried out in the energy access space, questions and uncertainties about the best paths to progress remain. WGSI’s main purpose at this stage is to identify knowledge gaps and challenge assumptions – to be supplemented through discussions at a workshop to be held in October – in order to select a handful of speci� c challenges that WGSI has the capacity to address through its subsequent activities.

� is document is WGSI’s � rst step. It provides a thorough literature review of current global e� orts across the energy access landscape. � is will serve as a platform from which a team of experts will identify knowledge gaps in the energy access challenge and question assumptions about solution approaches.

1. Introduction

1. UN. (2015). Sustainable development goals. Retrieved from: http://www.un.org/sustainabledevelopment/sustainable-development-goals/

2. IEA. (2014). Scenarios and projections. Retrieved from: http://www.iea.org/publications/scenariosandprojections/

1.3 billionpeople in the world without access to reliable, affordable energy

or approximately

1 in 5

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4 OpenAccess Energy BRIEF

Energy matters. As United Nations Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon has remarked, “energy is the golden thread that connects economic growth, increased social equity, and an environment that allows the planet to thrive.”3 It isn’t hard to � nd examples that support his argument. African families who were able to switch from kerosene to solar powered lighting, for example, have found that the switch saved them an average of US$ 70 per year. � e most common uses of these savings? Education for their children, improvements to their agricultural business and better food.4

Agriculture presents a particularly huge opportunity for immediate and signi� cant improvements to life in the developing world. In these regions, agriculture accounts for 29% of GDP and 65% of the labour force. Lack of energy signi� cantly impacts agricultural yields due to constraints on irrigation, equipment – both maintenance and operation – and the opportunity to add value to produce through post-harvest processing.5 With access to modern energy services, rural areas can bene� t from increased yields, a cold-chain infrastructure that reduces waste, and information technologies that manage agricultural supply chains and connect producers with markets.6

In business more generally, access to electricity can mean the di� erence between closing a shop at sundown, or keeping it – and the economic opportunities it creates – open into the evening. It means accessible power for the commercial and industrial equipment that can help pull entire communities out of persistent poverty. At home, being able to use electrical appliances can signi� cantly save time and e� ort, allowing individuals the opportunity to earn income elsewhere and escape the trap of a subsistence lifestyle.

� is is particularly important when considering the constraints on a signi� cant number of women and children in developing countries. Women and children are unequally burdened with the costs of traditional energy technologies such as open � res, kerosene lighting and biomass cookstoves. Surveys show that in many parts of the developing world women spend 2–8 hours per day collecting wood for cooking, and cleaning soot from household items. � ey also face greater exposure to indoor air pollution, the leading cause of blindness (through the development of cataracts) amongst women in the developing world.7

3. UN. (2012). Sustainable Energy for All: A Global Action Agenda. Pathways for Concerted Action Toward Sustainable Energy for All. Retrieved from: http://tinyurl.com/oayjddu

4. SolarAid. (2013). Impact report. Retrieved from: http://www.solar-aid.org/assets/Uploads/Publications/Impact-report-web-updated.pdf

5. GIZ. (2011) Modern energy services for modern agriculture: A review for smallholder farming in developing countries. In Poverty-Orientated Basic Energy Services. Retrieved from: http://poweringag.org/sites/default/files/giz201-en-energy-services-for-modern-agriculture.pdf

6. Swaminathan, M.S. & Kesavan, P.C. (2015). Energy security and food provision in off-grid villages. In Heap, R.B (Ed) Smart Villages: New Thinking for Off-Grid Communities Worldwide. Retrieved from: http://e4sv.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/Smart-Villages-New-Thinking-for-Off-grid-Comunities-Worldwide.pdf

7. Practical Action. (2014). Poor people’s energy outlook 2014. Retrieved from: http://practicalaction.org/ppeo2014

2. Energy As OpportunityAccess to energy changes lives, communities and even nations

29%of GDP

In the developing world

agriculture accounts for:

65%of the labour force

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OpenAccess Energy BRIEF 5

2. Energy As Opportunity

When it comes to children, the impact of access to electricity is perhaps primarily on education, but goes much further than freeing time to study. With their schools connected to an electricity supply, educational opportunities are exponentially improved.

Today, only about 50% of students from families in the planet’s lowest income quintile attend primary schools that are connected to the grid.8 Schools without electricity access are unable to stay open for after-school programs once the sun goes down. � ey are also denied access to information technologies: computers, internet access and the like.

Studies have shown that these technologies have signi� cant positive impact on educational attainment in the developed world, especially when it comes to science and mathematics, subjects that make a huge di� erence to future income.9 � is positive impact is in large part due to the bene� ts of being able to access knowledge via the internet and other information networks. Connectivity allows students to be able to conduct their own research, and allows teachers to build better lesson plans that draw upon knowledge beyond what is available in their often isolated communities.10

But the educational bene� ts of electricity are not limited to the classroom. When students do not have electricity in the home, it reduces the time available to them to study and do homework. Students do an average of one extra hour’s study per night once electric lighting becomes available.11

� e motivations detailed above are perhaps the most obvious bene� ts of access to electricity. But there are what we might term secondary bene� ts, too. Electricity is a driver of improved public safety, for instance. Street lighting and lighting in homes and community buildings improve safety at night, especially for women.12 � ey can also reduce the threat of attack by dangerous animals. Around-the-clock electricity for public buildings such as police and other emergency service stations (and their training institutions) creates access to these vital public safety services for longer hours and gives improved service quality.

� en there is the radical improvement to community health that electricity brings. As well as the blindness already mentioned, the indoor air pollution that results from using traditional sources of cooking and lighting fuel such as kerosene causes an estimated 1.5 million premature deaths per year – including half of all deaths of children under the

8. González Diaz, J. (2015). Energy and ICT for educational inclusion in Latin America. In Heap, R.B (Ed) Smart Villages: New Thinking for Off-Grid Communities Worldwide. Retrieved from: http://e4sv.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/Smart-Villages-New-Thinking-for-Off-grid-Comunities-Worldwide.pdf

9. Langdon, D., McKittrick, G., Beede, G., Khan, B. & Doms, M. (2011). STEM: Good jobs now and for the future. In US Department of Commerce Economics and Statistics Administration Issue Brief #03–11.

10. FAO. (2010). Global forest resources assessment – Key findings. Retrieved from: http://foris.fao.org/static/data/fra2010/KeyFindings-en.pdf

11. SolarAid (2013). Impact report. Retrieved from: http://www.solar-aid.org/assets/Uploads/Publications/Impact-report-web-updated.pdf

12. Practical Action (2014). Poor people’s energy outlook 2014. Retrieved from: http://practicalaction.org/ppeo2014

2–8hrs/daycollecting wood for cooking and cleaning soot from household items

Women spend

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6 OpenAccess Energy BRIEF

2. Energy As Opportunity

age of � ve. If the combustion of traditional fuels continues at present rates until 2030, the air pollution it causes will lead to more premature deaths than malaria, tuberculosis and AIDs combined.13 On top of that, kerosene or � rewood are strong drivers of � re risk. WHO estimates that more than 300,000 people die as a result of � res every year, with � re-related deaths ranking among the top 15 causes of death for people aged 5–29 globally. � is risk is elevated in the developing world, in large part due to the everyday use of these dangerous energy sources within the home.14

Unreliable or non-existent electricity is a signi� cant impediment to professional healthcare provision, a� ecting childbirth and emergency treatment and severely limiting night-time services. Almost a billion people worldwide are served by health facilities that are without reliable access to electricity. � is includes 46% of India’s health facilities, and 25% of facilities in Kenya, where blackouts are frequent. Ine� ective sterilization

procedures, another consequence of poor electricity provision, cause approximately 50–60 million post-operation infections per year.15 A lack of electrically-powered cold storage causes the wasting of blood, medicine, and approximately half of all vaccines delivered to developing counties.16

Finally, it is worth noting a couple of the indirect bene� ts of connecting the world’s population to a reliable supply of energy.

� e � rst is environmental. � e use of � rewood and other biomass for fuel in regions without electricity access is a major driver of deforestation, which often creates major environmental problems such as habitat loss and severe soil degradation.17 At the global level, collection of wood for fuel accounts for approximately half of deforestation. In Africa and Asia, where � rewood is a more predominant source of fuel, the contribution is 75%.18 � e problem doesn’t end there. Per unit of energy delivered, open � res are the most greenhouse-intensive fuel system in the world.19 Emissions from biomass burning for energy

13. Janssen, N. A., Gerlofs-Nijland, M. E., Lanki, T., Salonen, R. O., Cassee, F., Hoek, G. & Krzyzanowski, M. (2012). Health effects of black carbon. World Health Organization Regional Office for Europe. Retrieved from: http://www.euro.who.int/en/health-topics/environment-and-health/air-quality/publications/2012/health-effects-of-black-carbon-2012

14. Practical Action. (2014). Poor people’s energy outlook 2014. Retrieved from: http://practicalaction.org/ppeo2014

15. USAID/WHO. (2012) Measuring Service Availability and Readiness (SARA) – a health facility assessment methodology for monitoring health system strengthening. Retrieved from: http://www.who.int/healthinfo/systems/sara_reference_manual/en/

16. Vaxess. (2012) Vaxess Technologies. Retrieved from: www.vaxess.com/

17. IEA. (2010). Energy Poverty: How to Make Modern Energy Access Universal? Retrieved from: http://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/weo2010_poverty.pdf

18. FAO. (2010). Global forest resources assessment – Key findings. Retrieved from: http://foris.fao.org/static/data/fra2010/KeyFindings-en.pdf

An estimated

1.5 millionpremature deaths per year

50% of all deaths of

children under the age of 5

Approximately

300,000 deaths from fires every year

Traditional sources of cooking and lighting fuel cause:

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OpenAccess Energy BRIEF 7

2. Energy As Opportunity

services such as cooking and heating also signi� cantly contribute to climate change through particulate emissions of black carbon (soot) which causes localized climate warming.20 People of low socioeconomic status are also likely to be the most vulnerable to climate change and the least empowered to prepare their communities against its impacts. Agricultural productivity losses and exposure to extreme events are expected to put additional strain on these communities and their already scarce resources.21

� e second indirect advantage of providing energy access is in improving participation in community activities such as governance. Political disenfranchisement is common in energy-poor rural areas of low socio-economic status. However, recent developments in the implementation of community-based ‘micro-grids,’22 and the work of a number of scholars,23 point to an opportunity to improve this situation. In these

communities, electri� cation projects have great potential for improving the participatory and democratic nature of governance. What is more, the access to information technologies that often arrives with electricity access means that rural villages are poised to become more aware of their rights and the opportunities available to them. � at helps and encourages engagement with the governance processes that are meant to serve their interests.24 � ese kinds of advancements can be signi� cant steps towards creating more stable, accountable and properly-functioning political regimes.

With the advantages of providing universal energy access made clear, it is time to look at what kinds of changes are possible.

19. Garrett, S.L., Hopke, P.K. & Behn, W.H. (2009) . A research road map: Improved cook stove development and deployment for climate change mitigation and women’s and children’s health. Proceedings fromthe ASEAN-US Next-Generation Cook Stove Workshop, Bangkok, Thailand, November 2009 as reported to the US State Department. Retrieved from: http://www.pciaonline.org/files/CookStoveResearchRoadMap.pdf

20. UNEP. (2011). Integrated assessment of black carbon and tropospheric ozone: Summary for Decision Makers. Retrieved from: http://www.unep.org/dewa/Portals/67/pdf/Black_Carbon.pdf

21. Alstone, P., Gershenson, D., & Kammen, D. M. (2015). Decentralized energy systems for clean electricity access. Nature Climate Change, 5(4), 305–314.

22. Palit, D., & Sarangi, G. K. (2014). Renewable energy-based rural electrification: the mini-grid experience from India. UNEP Global Network on Energy for Sustainable Development. Retrieved from: http://www.unepdtu.org/~/media/Sites/Uneprisoe/News%20Item%20(pdfs)/GNESD%20publication_Mini%20grids%20India_web.ashx?la=da

23. Banerjee, M. (2015). Smart villages for smart voters. In Heap, R.B (Ed) Smart Villages: New Thinking for Off-Grid Communities Worldwide. Retrieved from: http://e4sv.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/Smart-Villages-New-Thinking-for-Off-grid-Comunities-Worldwide.pdf

24. Holmes, J. & van Gevelt, T. (2015). Energy for development – the concept. In Heap, R.B (Ed) Smart Villages: New Thinking for Off-Grid Communities Worldwide. Retrieved from: http://e4sv.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/Smart-Villages-New-Thinking-for-Off-grid-Comunities-Worldwide.pdf

Health facilities without reliable access to electricity:

Serve almost

1 billionpeople worldwide

Cause approximately

50–60 million post-operation infections per year

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8 OpenAccess Energy BRIEF

3.1 Delivery structures

It is possible to identify two obvious pathways for providing access to electricity to the 1.3 billion people worldwide that are currently without it. One is extending existing grids. � e other is expanding the scope of o� -grid projects.

3.1.1 Grid extension

Extending existing infrastructure is primarily important because of the rapid urbanization of the world’s population. Over half of the global population now lives in urban areas. By 2050, this proportion is expected to rise to approximately two thirds, in large part driven by signi� cant migration of African and Asian populations away from rural areas and into cities.25 � is urbanization can be a key driver of electricity access. Essentially, populations are moving closer to the existing infrastructure, allowing greater numbers of people to be served with relatively little e� ort in terms of building extensions to the electricity grid.

� e argument in favour of such approaches cites the bene� ts of familiarity. � ese traditional methods of generating baseload power, which have historically been critical to unlocking high levels of economic development, are well-understood, well-established, tried-and-tested technologies.26

However, this approach does raise some important questions. One concerns how increasingly large populations of people of low socioeconomic status in urban and peri-urban areas can be provided with safe, reliable electricity access, despite their

low demand and ability to pay. As poor populations migrate away from rural areas towards cities, and the enhanced economic opportunities that are the cities’ major draw, many are living in what can be termed “informal” conditions. � eft of energy through unauthorized connections, a concomitant lack of safety, and inadequate regulation are already major problems facing e� orts to provide electricity in the world’s slums, shanty towns and favelas.

� e migration towards urban areas raises other questions of interest. How much of the current urbanization, for instance, is driven by energy poverty in rural areas? Many scholars have argued that urbanization occurs largely as a result of a lack of opportunities (mostly economic) and modern community services in rural areas. It has already been demonstrated that energy access brings economic opportunities; it may be that extending city grids into shanty towns and favelas could be considered to be treating a symptom rather than a direct cause of the energy access issue. It could also be a measure that encourages further displacement of (largely male) populations and the fracturing of families and communities in non-urban areas.

It may be that this dynamic can be altered. If rural areas can be electri� ed, with all of the attendant economic and other bene� ts that electri� cation brings, the � ow of rural poor into urban and peri-urban areas can be slowed, city infrastructures will su� er less strain, and rural life will be enriched.27

� is brings us to the second pathway: electri� cation of rural areas through small-scale stand-alone projects.

3. The Pathways to Energy AccessAs yet unexploited potential that will help meet the world’s energy needs

This section examines the infrastructure and resources that can be leveraged to meet our goals. There are three branches: delivery structures, energy sources and energy management technologies.

25. UNFPA. (2015). Urbanization: An urbanizing world. Retrieved from: http://www.unfpa.org/urbanization

26. Caine, M., Lloyd, J., Luke, M., Margonelli, L., Moss, T., Nordhaus, T., Pielke Jr., R., Roman, M., Roy, J., Sarewitz, D., Schellenberger, M., Singh, K. & Trembath, A. (2014). Our high energy planet. The Breakthrough Institute. Retrieved from: http://thebreakthrough.org/index.php/programs/energy-and-climate/our-high-energy-planet

27. Holmes, J. & van Gevelt, T. (2015). Energy for development – the concept. In Heap, R.B (Ed) Smart Villages: New Thinking for Off-Grid Communities Worldwide. Retrieved from: http://e4sv.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/Smart-Villages-New-Thinking-for-Off-grid-Comunities-Worldwide.pdf

28. IEA. (2010). Energy Poverty: How to Make Modern Energy Access Universal? Retrieved from: http://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/weo2010_poverty.pdf

29. IEA. (2014). Scenarios and projections. Retrieved from: http://www.iea.org/publications/scenariosandprojections/

30. Alstone, P., Gershenson, D., & Kammen, D. M. (2015). Decentralized energy systems for clean electricity access. Nature Climate Change, 5(4), 305–314.

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OpenAccess Energy BRIEF 9

3. The Pathways to Energy Access

3.1.2 Off-Grid projects

O� -grid projects are crucial, largely because transmission costs will continue to make extending the grid to many of these areas far too costly for either private or publicly funded ventures.28 � e International Energy Agency currently predicts that 55% of the additional electricity required to provide universal access by 2030 will most likely come from decentralized (not-grid connected) systems.29 � ese are, by their very nature, � exible – a huge advantage in the energy marketplace. Modern energy services can be provided at the household or village level at scales that match demand, providing the energy for basic services and serving as a useful stepping stone toward the domestic and commercial opportunities that energy access brings.

O� -grid products can be split into two categories: pico-power and micro-grids.

Pico-power is the name given to single user systems – often a solar system that powers a single dwelling or small workshop or factory. Pico-products (solar powered lamps, for example) aim to replace the basic services provided by kerosene lamps, biomass cookstoves and fee-based mobile phone charging, delivering high quality electrical energy.30

Home solar systems can be self-installed or professionally installed. � ey typically cost about US$ 200–500, and generally comprise a small solar panel, battery, and necessary cables or other electrical output equipment. � is can provide enough electricity to power a few appliances such as a fan, television and even a small refrigerator, as well as powering multiple lights and charging small devices. � ey are durable, easily

expanded and require minimum maintenance or operational costs over the lifetime of their use.31

In comparison to alternatives such as buying kerosene fuel or using mobile phone charging stations, these modern energy products are highly competitive in cost terms.32 Another bene� t is the time they save: boiling water for making tea or cleaning is a daily task that a recent survey in Kenya showed takes 2.6 hours per day for the average household. Direct solar water heaters and highly simplistic passive water heating and cooling methods can simplify this process and provide on demand access to boiled, warm, or cool water.33

It is worth noting that the business model for pico-power seems to work, despite the low buying power of the ‘base-of-pyramid’ consumers who are the main market for pico-power systems. � e emergence of innovative products with increasingly low costs and multiple bene� ts has led to rapidly expanding demand and willingness to pay in this market.34 East Africa provides a good example of a key region where the market for o� -grid pico-power (often solar energy sourced) is growing rapidly. � is growth mirrors the rapid growth of the mobile phone market over the past decade. A notable success is the Lighting Global program, which has sold over 6 million products globally to date. Programs in Asia have also � ourished. � e IDCOL Solar Home System support program of Bangladesh has sold over 4 million products to date.

While pico-power is � ourishing, creating a cluster of interconnected electricity consumers (often an entire village or small town) in a micro-grid can be even more bene� cial to consumers.

31. Alstone, P., Gershenson, D., Turman-Bryant, N., Kammen, D.N. & Jacobson, A. (2015). Off-grid power and connectivity: Pay-as-you-go financing and digital supply chains for pico-solar. Lighting Global market research report. Retrieved from: https://www.lightingglobal.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/Off_Grid_Power_and_Connectivity_PAYG_May_2015.pdf

32. Kammen, D. (2015). Energy innovations for smart villages. In Heap, R.B (Ed) Smart Villages: New Thinking for Off-Grid Communities Worldwide. Retrieved from: http://e4sv.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/Smart-Villages-New-Thinking-for-Off-grid-Comunities-Worldwide.pdf

33. Practical Action. (2014). Poor people’s energy outlook 2014. Retrieved from: http://practicalaction.org/ppeo2014

34. Bardouille, P., Avato, P., Levin, J., Pantelias, A., & Engelmann-Pilger, H. (2012). From gap to opportunity: Business models for scaling up energy access. International Finance Corporation. Retrieved from: http://www.ifc.org/wps/wcm/connect/topics_ext_content/ifc_external_corporate_site/ifc+sustainability/learning+and+adapting/knowledge+products/publications/publications_report_gap-opportunity

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Micro-grids provide major advantages over household-scale systems. � ey can be powered by a variety of sources, from non-renewable diesel-fueled generators to renewable options such as small scale hydro, solar and wind. � e interconnection of multiple energy sources, usually coupled with some form of energy storage capacity, allows for more productive and e� cient energy provision than single home systems are generally able to provide.35 What’s more, economies of scale mean they are generally less expensive per unit of energy delivered. � ey can support higher loads and load variance, and can provide the power for commercial purposes such as agro-processing as well as community-based services such as water pumps and healthcare centres.36 Indeed, many privately funded micro-grid projects in the developing world are deliberately ‘anchored’ to one or more of these larger clients in order to create a more reliable payment stream for the energy provided.37

A further advantage is that micro-grids can also be scaled up e� ciently at the pace of local demand and even be connected to the existing electricity grid if and when that becomes necessary or expedient.38 In areas where grid connections are available but vulnerable to disruption (where extreme weather or natural disasters are more common) or prone to unreliability (throughout much of the developing world), micro-grids can also be used as a back-up in order to improve electricity provision resilience.39

� is realization has taken hold in both the developing and developed world in response to perceived vulnerability of

existing grid systems, a trend that is not limited to rural areas, or the poor. Communities and households in economically advantaged urban areas are pursuing micro-grids and solar home systems to replace or supplement existing grid connections. � ese systems are valued for a number of reasons. First, they are being used to test the usability of ‘smart-grid’ ICT solutions. � ese are expected to be important aspects of future energy systems that must cope with the more variable electricity generation capacity of renewable systems. � ey are also being constructed with the capacity for ‘islandability’ (they can be connected or disconnected from the existing grid).40 A vision for so-called ‘personalized energy services’ is thus emerging, wherein electricity consumers become increasingly engaged in the generation and management of their energy through the use of advanced ICT and micro-grid systems.41

While some of the impetus behind the interest in micro-grid and solar home systems has stemmed from a desire for autonomy, much can be attributed to the desire for resilience mentioned above, especially in the wake of natural disasters such as New York City’s 2012 experience with Hurricane Sandy. In the aftermath of the destruction, many homes that were connected to the larger grid went without power for weeks, whereas some smaller micro-grid islands that existed already were able to keep functioning and provide vital services to the local community.42 Small cell phone charging stations and other (often mobile) solar powered electricity generation facilities provided crucial community services

35. Alstone, P., Gershenson, D., Turman-Bryant, N., Kammen, D.N. & Jacobson, A. (2015). Off-grid power and connectivity: Pay-as-you-go financing and digital supply chains for pico-solar. Lighting Global market research report. Retrieved from: https://www.lightingglobal.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/Off_Grid_Power_and_Connectivity_PAYG_May_2015.pdf

36. LIGTT/LBNL (2014). 50 Breakthroughs: critical scientific and technological advances needed for sustainable global development. Retrieved from: https://www.ligtt.org/50-breakthroughs

37. Gershenson, D., Tilleard, M., Cusack, J., Cooper, D., Monk, A. & Kammen, D.N. (2015). Increasing private capital investment into energy access: the case for mini-grid pooling facilities. UNEP. Retrieved from: http://apps.unep.org/publications/pmtdocuments/-Increasing_private_capital_investment_into_energy_access__The_case_for_mini-grid_pooling_.pdf

38. IGTT/LBNL (2014). 50 Breakthroughs: critical scientific and technological advances needed for sustainable global development. Retrieved from: https://www.ligtt.org/50-breakthroughs GTT, (2014).

39. Alstone, P., Gershenson, D., & Kammen, D. M. (2015). Decentralized energy systems for clean electricity access. Nature Climate Change, 5(4), 305–314.

40. NSERC. (N.D). About the Smart Grid Network. Retrieved from: http://www.smart-microgrid.ca/about/

41. Brown, M. (2015). Our Energy Future in 2035 Depends on New Technologies, Talents, Mindsets. Energized for the Future. Retrieved from: http://www.apcoworldwide.com/docs/default-source/default-document-library/Thought-Leadership/energized-for-the-future_april-2015.pdf?sfvrsn=0

… economies of scale mean (micro-grids) are generally less expensive per unit of energy delivered. They can support higher loads and load variance, and can provide the power for commercial purposes such as agro-processing as well as community based services such as water pumps and healthcare centres.

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before grid-based power became available. � e experience of Hurricane Sandy has prompted the state of New York to launch a new government energy plan entitled ‘Reforming the Energy Vision’, which centres on enabling the construction of decentralized electricity systems throughout the state. � ey have also recently initiated NY Prize, a US$ 40 million micro-grid design competition.43

In short, micro-grids can serve as useful stepping stone toward improving economic opportunities, public safety, health, education and gender equality in the absence of a reliable (or any) grid connection.44 Small wonder, then, that estimates suggest they will be providing approximately 630 million people with energy by 2030.45 � is is not wishful thinking: as already noted, a range of o� -grid energy service products and system sizes have been employed in various contexts depending on demand, consumer ability to pay, geography, and available � nancing. � is market is rapidly expanding and has clearly moved past the pilot scale.46

3.2 Energy sources

Since creating global energy access is largely focused on the needs of unconnected communities, it makes sense to focus here on small-scale renewable energy resources, primarily wind, hydroelectric and solar power.

Despite high capital costs, wind certainly has a role to play. A 2013 study by the African Development Bank suggests

there is much untapped potential for wind power supply in countries such as Somalia, Sudan, Libya, Mauritania, Egypt, Madagascar, Kenya and Chad, and there are moves to exploit these resources. Kenya’s Lake Turkana Wind Power Project, for example, is expected to generate about 20% of the country’s power when it becomes fully operational in 2017. It will surpass Tarfaya wind farm in Morocco, currently Africa’s biggest wind farm with 131 turbines. � e Asian wind market is also growing, with India running the world’s � fth largest wind energy program.

� e energy from many of these projects will not be available to those not currently connected to electricity grids, however. � at said, rapid industrialization and development of infrastructure in unconnected areas means demand for “small wind power,” which is mostly o� -grid, is escalating.47

Where there is a suitable water resource, small hydroelectric plants can also provide power to unconnected communities. In India, a couple of dozen micro-grid networks run on hydropower in the states of Karnataka and Uttarakhand. In Atlin, British Columbia, Canada, a small-scale hydroelectric project owned by the Taku River Tlingit First Nation is generating enough electricity to make the population consider connecting to external grids so that they can sell on their excess energy. Yukon Energy is in discussions with the Taku River Tlingit about the possibility of purchasing hydro power from them.48

42. Abi-Samra, N.C. (2013). On Year Later: Superstorm Sandy Underscores Need for a Resiliant Grid. IEEE Spectrum. Retrieved from: http://spectrum.ieee.org/energy/the-smarter-grid/one-year-later-superstorm-sandy-underscores-need-for-a-resilient-grid

43. Cardwell, D. (2012). Solar Companies Seeks Ways to Build and Oasis of Electricity. New York Times. Retrieved from: http://www.nytimes.com/2012/11/20/business/energy-environment/solar-power-as-solution-for-storm-darkened-homes.html

44. IEA. (2010). Energy Poverty: How to Make Modern Energy Access Universal? Retrieved from: http://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/weo2010_poverty.pdf

45. Gershenson, D., Tilleard, M., Cusack, J., Cooper, D., Monk, A. & Kammen, D.N. (2015). Increasing private capital investment into energy access: the case for mini-grid pooling facilities. UNEP. Retrieved from: http://apps.unep.org/publications/pmtdocuments/-Increasing_private_capital_investment_into_energy_access__The_case_for_mini-grid_pooling_.pdf

46. Alstone, P., Gershenson, D., & Kammen, D. M. (2015). Decentralized energy systems for clean electricity access. Nature Climate Change, 5(4), 305–314.

47. WWINDEA. (2015) Small Wind Market. Retrieved from: http://www.wwindea.org/wssw2015-small-wind-world-market-growth-at-lower-pace/

48. Yukon Energy. (2015) Pine Creek Hydro Project. Retrieved from: https://www.yukonenergy.ca/energy-in-yukon/our-projects-facilities/new-hydro/pine-creek-hydro-project/

By 2030, micro-grids will provide energy to an estimated

630 million people

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3. The Pathways to Energy Access

However, it is solar power that looks the best bet for overcoming energy disadvantage in the developing world. � e installed global capacity of solar photovoltaic (PV) energy systems has increased exponentially for decades, rising from approximately 1.8 gigawatts in 2,000 to 187 gigawatts by the end of 2014.49 � e cost of solar energy has declined rapidly over the past decade, nearing parity with traditional fossil fuel sources in some contexts. � e average price for a utility-scale PV project has dropped from US$ 0.21/kWh in 2011 to US$ 0.11/kWh in 2014.50

Solar power has many advantages over other electricity production methods. It is clean and inexhaustible unlike climate-warming and high-polluting fossil fuels. It also has advantages over renewable options such as hydroelectric and wind power. � ese systems can only be located in limited geographic areas, and have variable site-speci� c costs that make large-scale implementation problematic for investors. (� e same is true for modern biomass energy production methods utilizing gasi� ers and digesters, which also must be located near and rely on the availability of biomass feedstocks which can � uctuate in price and availability.)

Across the globe, areas facing the most extreme energy poverty (in Africa and developing Asia) very often coincide with areas of high solar radiation, making them ideal locations for solar

energy installations. Other bene� ts include the highly modular and con� gurable nature of PV systems, from small, durable panels for charging a single appliance, to large arrays capable of powering an entire village or town. In nascent and emerging rural markets where demand is di� cult to estimate and may change signi� cantly over time, these systems can be scaled up or down without signi� cant cost impediments. Finally, and perhaps most signi� cantly, PV systems have been shown to provide the highest ratio of jobs per kWh. If locally created, the construction, operations and maintenance of PV systems can help boost local economic development in one of the most important ways – through sustainable local employment.51

3.3 Energy Management Technologies

� e explosion of mobile phone use in the developing world is more than a demonstration of the potentially rapid uptake of new technologies. It is also spurring the di� usion of renewable, o� -grid energy technologies by providing access to mobile � nancing and energy system management services. Many energy access projects increasingly rely on these technologies to enhance service delivery and systems e� ciency, lower costs and make these systems more attractive to consumers, service providers and � nanciers.

49. IEA. (2015). Snapshot of Global PV Markets 2014. Retrieved from: http://www.iea-pvps.org/index.php?id=92&eID=dam_frontend_push&docID=2430

50. LIGTT/LBNL (2014). 50 Breakthroughs: critical scientific and technological advances needed for sustainable global development. Retrieved from: https://www.ligtt.org/50-breakthroughs GTT, (2014).

51. Alstone, P., Gershenson, D., & Kammen, D. M. (2015). Decentralized energy systems for clean electricity access. Nature Climate Change, 5(4), 305–314.

52. Holmes, J. & van Gevelt, T. (2015). Energy for development – the concept. In Heap, R.B (Ed) Smart Villages: New Thinking for Off-Grid Communities Worldwide. Retrieved from: http://e4sv.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/Smart-Villages-New-Thinking-for-Off-grid-Comunities-Worldwide.pdf

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� ere are already 90 active mobile phone subscriptions for every 100 people in the developing world. � is recent trend in access to information technologies has sparked signi� cant economic changes including the use of mobile banking systems which have become central to a number of � nancing strategies for renewable energy pico-power systems.52 � e high adoption rates for mobile phones indicate that there is willingness to pay for high-value technology-driven services such as mobile communication even in economically disadvantaged areas.53

Some examples where ICT solutions have been applied to pico-power and micro-grid systems include:

During generation: Monitoring and troubleshooting operations in real time, collecting and analyzing system data, optimizing and synchronizing multiple power sources in hybrid systems, managing storage to smooth intermittence of renewable energy supply, and regulating voltage, frequency and load levels (matching demand with supply).

During distribution: Minimizing technical and non-technical losses from theft and measurement errors.

During consumption: Synchronizing demand and supply (for example through the use of current limiters, power

management administrators, and smart meters), billing and fee collection systems (including prepayment devices and mobile banking systems) and fraud prevention systems.54

� e availability of mobile banking and prepayment services is particularly signi� cant as it has helped confront one of the largest risks facing � nanciers and service providers – low consumer ability to pay. � ese services allow customers to prepay for the energy they use at the beginning of consumption cycles, providing a guarantee of payment for services delivered. ICT also allows for the remote management (including shut-down) of equipment and services by providers in the case of missed payments, providing a further level of security for providers and encouraging timely payment for services. Finally, since real time monitoring of demand, payment histories, and other information are recorded, credit records and a greater understanding of consumption dynamics can be established.55 � e greater control that ICT provides has already led to notable successes in managing these systems in the developing world. � is includes a micro-grid project in Bhutan which was able to reduce brownouts caused by peaks in demand during cooking times by 92% through the use of load-shedding devices.56

53. Alstone, P., Gershenson, D., & Kammen, D. M. (2015). Decentralized energy systems for clean electricity access. Nature Climate Change, 5(4), 305–314.

54. LIGTT/LBNL (2014). 50 Breakthroughs: critical scientific and technological advances needed for sustainable global development. Retrieved from: https://www.ligtt.org/50-breakthroughs

55. Holmes, J. & van Gevelt, T. (2015). Energy for development – the concept. In Heap, R.B (Ed) Smart Villages: New Thinking for Off-Grid Communities Worldwide. Retrieved from: http://e4sv.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/Smart-Villages-New-Thinking-for-Off-grid-Comunities-Worldwide.pdf

56. LIGTT/LBNL (2014). 50 Breakthroughs: critical scientific and technological advances needed for sustainable global development. Retrieved from: https://www.ligtt.org/50-breakthroughs

Photo credit: Julien Simery/UNESCO

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� e range of underserved and underdeveloped energy markets spans the globe. Sub-Saharan Africa and developing Asia comprise the largest markets. Within the developed world, regions facing geographic isolation (islands, remote Northern communities) also stand to gain from the emergence of a� ordable power from decentralized renewable energy systems. � is is also true of energy consumers for whom a more resilient energy supply is highly valued, for example in regions where frequent natural disasters, storms or other factors threaten the reliability and/or quality of electrical power provision. However, there is already a wide variety of projects that shine light on potential solutions. � is section provides a lightning tour of some of the energy provision programs already under trial.

4.1 East Africa

� e continent of Africa faces the highest poverty rate and least foreign and public investment in energy per capita. � us, the energy access challenge here has primarily begun with a number of projects aimed at di� using small, highly inexpensive pico-power devices and appliances at the household level. � ese e� orts are aimed at replacing traditional sources of energy such as kerosene and � rewood, which are comparably expensive per unit of energy delivered. Mobile phone charging is another energy service that is often grossly overpriced in Africa, costing an average of 20 cents per charge, which translates to over US$ 40 per kWh. � is is a far higher price than even the most expensive solar charging systems will demand.57

To date, East Africa has been ground zero for decentralized renewable energy adoption in Africa. Kenya in particular is an ideal market, with huge growth potential that has been demonstrated through a recent surge in mobile phone use, mobile money systems and successful energy access initiatives. Kenya also features the hub that is its capital city, Nairobi, which has comparably advanced ICT networks and access to � nanciers and experts in o� -grid solar power systems. Each of these can be leveraged in order to spur growth in energy access projects.58

Kenya has recently seen a recent tripling of participation in ‘pay-as-you-go’ � nancing schemes for small-scale pico-power systems. � ese allow consumers with the least ability to pay for electricity to pay the small monthly fees they know that they can a� ord at the beginning of each month.56 Larger community-scale micro-grid projects have also been successful and are rapidly expanding. An example is the UK-funded Energy for Development (e4D) concept – a � ve year, community-centric project aimed at developing community-scale renewable energy micro-grids. � ese are developed with a high degree of involvement from the villagers whom they serve.

� e � rst e4D project, carried out in 2012, involved the creation of a PV-powered micro-grid in the remote village of Kitonyoni, Kenya. � e project provides power for over 3000 very poor inhabitants, including all of its major commercial and community service buildings. � e entire 13.5 kilowatt system (including PV panels, battery storage systems and canopy) was assembled by e4D engineers, local contractors and villagers within a single week, and was designed to be highly replicable and scalable. � e income generated through

4. Learning by ExampleProviding global energy access is already under way

57. Gershenson, D., Tilleard, M., Cusack, J., Cooper, D., Monk, A. & Kammen, D.N. (2015). Increasing private capital investment into energy access: the case for mini-grid pooling facilities. UNEP. Retrieved from: http://apps.unep.org/publications/pmtdocuments/-Increasing_private_capital_investment_into_energy_access__The_case_for_mini-grid_pooling_.pdf

58. Alstone, P., Gershenson, D., Turman-Bryant, N., Kammen, D.N. & Jacobson, A. (2015). Off-grid power and connectivity: Pay-as-you-go financing and digital supply chains for pico-solar. Lighting Global market research report. Retrieved from: https://www.lightingglobal.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/Off_Grid_Power_and_Connectivity_PAYG_May_2015.pdf

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service fees and share ownership supports its continued maintenance and operation, as well as recovering capital costs over time and providing micro-� nancing for other community projects. � e canopy for the PV system doubles as a rain collector that enables water storage and commercial sale through a community co-operative. Furthermore, the community, commercial and household services provided by this system have led to a suite of spin-o� bene� ts. Land prices have more than doubled. Ten new buildings and numerous businesses have been constructed in the neighbourhood, a development that has helped double local business income since the project’s inception. A new maternity ward has also been donated, and health service availability has expanded rapidly, bene� tting human health. As a result of this success, three more micro-grid PV projects have been planned based on the e4D concept.59

4.2 India

In developing Asia, the largest energy access challenge can be found in India, home to 42% of the Asians without reliable electricity access. India has a relatively long history – since the 1990’s – of initiating o� -grid energy projects to support the economic development of remote village communities. Like Africa, the focus of many recent e� orts has been on installing PV-powered systems, which have bene� tted from lower maintenance and operational costs. India’s energy access programs to date have however favoured larger community-level micro-grids (as opposed to pico-power systems) which are funded through public investment from governments and

international development institutions. � e many projects that have been carried out to date – some successful, some not – provide a number of useful lessons to guide future e� orts.60

According to a 2014 report from UNEP’s Global Network on Energy for Sustainable Development, recent projects have demonstrated the importance of community participation throughout the planning, construction and operations phases of these projects. � is has come in the form of village energy committees or electricity cooperatives which provide various project management functions including maintenance and operations, training, revenue collection and complaint redress. � e level of engagement of local communities can di� er considerably however. Villages that feature stronger existing governance structures tend to perform better at ensuring long-term project sustainability than those without a history of strong social cohesion and community leadership.58

Another key role played by community groups, often in collaboration with local government and NGOs, is the setting of tari� s. Tari� structure is key to ensuring that the capital and operational costs of the systems can be o� set through revenue collection over time. On average, 90% of capital costs are subsidized in Indian micro-grid projects, and some projects even subsidize operations and maintenance costs for up to � ve years. Once subsidies run out it is crucial that revenues are able to cover these costs in order for the system to remain in sustainable operation. � e inability of past projects to secure su� cient revenue over time has been a major roadblock to securing � nancing for these projects in the past. � e emergence of smaller pay-as-you-go � nancing and utility-style schemes, where private interests own and operate

59. Bahaj, A. (2015). Transforming rural communities through mini-grids. In Heap, R.B (Ed) Smart Villages: New Thinking for Off-Grid Communities Worldwide. Retrieved from: http://e4sv.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/Smart-Villages-New-Thinking-for-Off-grid-Comunities-Worldwide.pdf

60. Palit, D., & Sarangi, G. K. (2014). Renewable energy-based rural electrification: the mini-grid experience from India. UNEP Global Network on Energy for Sustainable Development. Retrieved from: http://www.unepdtu.org/~/media/Sites/Uneprisoe/News%20Item%20(pdfs)/GNESD%20publication_Mini%20grids%20India_web.ashx?la=da

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the equipment while selling energy at a standard rate, have emerged and found some success in addressing this barrier. � e success of such schemes is, however, highly dependent on the local context.

A successful example is that of Mera Gao Power, which operates in partnership with USAID in order to build, own and operate much smaller scale micro-grids. � ese projects, which use solar panels coupled to a bank of inexpensive lead-acid batteries, cost less than US$ 1,000 per village and can be constructed within a single day. � e low cost and utility-style service delivery of these systems has allowed Mera Gao to provide electricity to over 500 o� -grid Indian villages, which serves the lighting and mobile phone charging needs of over 65,000 people.61

4.3 Island and Remote Northern Communities

Regions of geographic isolation can provide ideal locations for renewable energy micro-grid adoption. Without the ability to access grid-scale electricity, these populations are often consigned to purchasing diesel fuel at exorbitant prices. Fuel is generally delivered by boat or even more expensively, by aircraft in the case of remote Northern communities which are locked in ice for much of the year.

Islands are the ultimate micro-grid location due to the permanence of their geographic isolation. A successful example of an island that has transitioned away from diesel fuel towards locally generated renewable electricity is Kodiak Island, Alaska, USA. Kodiak is the second largest island in the United States, and home to over 15 000 inhabitants. Previously, 20% of Kodiak’s electricity came from generators running on expensive imported diesel fuel, which meant that electricity prices were a full 50% higher than the national average. A project to replace this capacity with wind power and � ywheel storage (as well as some additional hydroelectric power) has made diesel electricity generation completely redundant. � e resulting economic bene� ts have been signi� cant, with

electricity bills down 2.5%, enough of a change to bene� t businesses across the island.62

� e island of Samsø, 11 miles o� the coast of Denmark, now meets all its electricity needs through wind turbines on the island, and sells excess power to the national utility.63 In South Korea, the state electricity utility has recognized that supplying energy to remote communities is uneconomic compared with enabling them to generate their own power. Sixty-four of South Korea’s 180 island communities are now being supplied with the resources to create micro-grids powered by renewable energy sources.64

An example of a remote northern community with reliable and a� ordable energy access is the community of Tuntutuliak, Alaska, USA, which is home to approximately 400 people, most of them Yup’ik Inuit, has successfully installed a highly advanced micro-grid that is creating local economic bene� ts. � e project utilizes state of the art wind power, smart-metering, and electric thermal storage technology to replace the biannual shipments of US$ 7/gallon diesel fuel that was crippling the local economy. � e success of this project has encouraged two other neighboring communities to follow suit.65

Canada has around 170 o� -grid communities that rely exclusively on diesel, but some of its remote communities are beginning to operate micro-grids. NCC Development, formed by the chiefs of six First Nations communities, is working to reduce reliance on diesel fuel for remote First Nations by 50% by utilizing a combination of strategies including the construction of solar micro-grids, energy conservation, and load management.

Such achievements demonstrate the potential for renewable micro-grids to bring economic bene� ts to many remote communities. � ese communities often face both economic and political isolation as well as geographic remoteness. � ey stand to gain economically from the replacement of expensive fuel sources with clean renewable power generation but tend to su� er from a lack of resources to develop new energy systems.66

61. Kumar, R.V. (2015). Leapfrogging to Sustainable Power. In Heap, R.B (Ed) Smart Villages: New Thinking for Off-Grid Communities Worldwide. Retrieved from: http://e4sv.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/Smart-Villages-New-Thinking-for-Off-grid-Comunities-Worldwide.pdf

62. RMI. (2015). An Alaskan Island Goes 100% Renewable. RMI Outlet. Retrieved from: http://blog.rmi.org/blog_2015_05_19_an_alaskan_island_goes_one_hundred_percent_renewable

63. Cardwell, D. (2015). Green-Energy Inspiration Off the Coast of Denmark. New York Times. Retrieved from: http://www.nytimes.com/2015/01/18/business/energy-environment/green-energy-inspiration-from-samso-denmark.html

64. Ji-Yoon, K. (2015). Global sustainable energy starts on Korea’s Islands. Korea JoongAng Daily. Retrieved from: http://koreajoongangdaily.joins.com/news/article/article.aspx?aid=3004894

65. Guevara, L. (2015). Native Energy: Rural Electrification on Trival Lands. RMI Outlet. Retrieved from: http://blog.rmi.org/blog_2014_06_24_native_energy_rural_electrification_on_tribal_lands

66. Royer, J. (2013). Status of Remote/Off-Grid Communities in Canada. National Resources Canada. Retrieved from: http://www.nrcan.gc.ca/energy/publications/sciences-technology/renewable/smart-grid/11916

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With these examples – and many more – already pointing the way forward, it seems there is a signi� cant opportunity to accelerate progress towards global energy access. Perhaps the greatest impediments are now bureaucratic, social and � nancial. � is section provides an overview of the business models, � nancing initiatives and sustainability issues that must be navigated before success will be possible.

5.1 Who will pay?

Despite commitments from governments and international development � nance institutions, the requirement for additional project � nancing is perhaps the greatest barrier currently facing energy access projects worldwide. Current funding levels from governments and international development institutions fall short of what is required to achieve universal energy access by 2030. Local public banks and multilateral agencies are also important sources of funding for individual projects, but cannot � ll the large gaps in funding – as high as US$ 134 billion per year – that exist at present.67

� e problem extends not just to the question of how much investment is needed, but how best to allocate funding in order to incentivize additional growth. A variety of � nancing models exist, from wholly subsidized projects to public-private partnerships to for-pro� t initiatives. No single model will work best in every situation, and the broad range of project scales and contexts in the energy access space means that � nancing models should be matched to the needs of individual project types.68

5.1.1 Public funding and public-private partnerships

Aid organizations, international development institutions and governments provide the lion’s share of funding to energy access projects. � ese projects are often carried out in collaboration with NGOs and local governments, and many successful programs capitalize upon links between these agencies and community groups, enabling project developers to assess local conditions and plan projects accordingly. However, the nature of donor funding often results in a focus on social impacts rather than long-term project sustainability and consistent revenue generation. � is has led to the failure of some projects that are not able to reach a level of sustainable project operation before donor funding expires.

Another avenue for project � nancing is through public-private partnerships. � ese models are attractive because they capitalize on the ability to attract both donor funding and private � nancing, thereby opening up additional sources of investment. � e involvement of governments can also reduce regulatory risk, and risks can be transferred from private investors to governments in order to make the projects more attractive to private investors.69

While grid extension, pico-power products and solar home systems have had notable success in attracting business interests, larger micro-grid projects tend to rely much more heavily on purely public funding. Experience from previous and existing micro-grid projects point to a number of barriers that face project developers in attracting investment. A 2015 UNEP-sponsored report on micro-grid project � nancing identi� ed two primary types of barriers that have been identi� ed: high risks and high transaction costs.70

� e perception that micro-grid projects are high riskinvestments stems from a variety of issues. For starters, micro-grids are also often employed in “di� cult” regions. Low economic development (and therefore weak consumer

5. Behind The ScenesThe policies, business models and social issues that can help and hinder progress

67. Bazilian, M., Nussbaumer, P., Haites, E., Levi, M., Howells, M. & Yumkella, K. (201). Understanding the scale of investment for universal energy access. Geopolitics of Energy. 32, (10–11), 19–40

68. IEA. (2010). Energy Poverty: How to Make Modern Energy Access Universal? Retrieved from: http://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/weo2010_poverty.pdf

69. UN. (2012). Sustainable Energy for All: A Global Action Agenda. Pathways for Concerted Action Toward Sustainable Energy for All. Retrieved from: http://tinyurl.com/oayjddu

70. Gershenson, D., Tilleard, M., Cusack, J., Cooper, D., Monk, A. & Kammen, D.N. (2015). Increasing private capital investment into energy access: the case for mini-grid pooling facilities. UNEP. Retrieved from: http://apps.unep.org/publications/pmtdocuments/-Increasing_private_capital_investment_into_energy_access__The_case_for_mini-grid_pooling_.pdf

71. IEA. (2010). Energy Poverty: How to Make Modern Energy Access Universal? Retrieved from: http://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/weo2010_poverty.pdf

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purchasing power), high cost of capital, unstable political regimes and vague or unsupportive regulations can scare o� many private � nanciers. Furthermore, micro-grid projects can be highly complex, and every project environment is di� erent. Not enough experience has been gathered in order to create solid expectations about the types of risks that arise from each project type. � e diverse range of risks facing these projects

include those related to: the process of permitting; a lack of standardization in micro-grid system design; gaps in supply and demand assessments; links and con� icts with incumbent infrastructure; construction delays and cost over-runs; currency exchange uncertainty; theft, tampering and corruption; and poor organizational/operational structures within project development teams.

High transaction costs stem from the requirement for in-depth studies into site identi� cation, evaluation and diligence, and purchase of the system components itself.71 High transaction costs are also a major issue for smaller systems for which the costs associated with managing small loans are disproportionately high compared to revenue creation potential.72

Micro-grids also require far more technical and project expertise than smaller systems, and high capital costs lead to longer payback periods, requiring a longer-term investment that is not attractive to many private interests.73 All of these issues serve to elucidate some of the reasons why, despite the potential for unlocking massive economic opportunities, micro-grid energy access projects continue to be largely donor-funded. While attracting signi� cantly more private investment should be a priority moving forward, publicly

funded projects and public-private partnerships will continue to be important. � e hope is that with more experience and successes, the business case for investing in these systems will become more solid as risks and transaction costs are reduced through experience.

5.1.2 Private business models

Private investment in energy access projects will be critical to address public funding shortfalls and to provide innovative project management, � nancing and technological solutions.74 � ere is reason for optimism: 72 unique organizations and � rms have

already collectively deployed over 250,000 systems across the various range of service types and raised over US$ 80 million in investment capital.75 � is is a promising development, as much of the energy access community favours private-sector business models over donor-funding.

� e bene� ts of private sector involvement include:

• � e ability of private sector actors to better quantify project bene� ts (and costs) and thus improve pricing and tari� collection

• More e� cient operational control and management of attendant risks (i.e. design, procurement, construction, and operation/maintenance)

• A better use of limited capital, as it is evaluated according to economic value created rather than political in� uence, social measures of impact, or other non-economic factors

• � e sustainability of an approach that is driven by market dynamics rather than government subsidies. Private enterprises can employ a variety of proprietary tools that may not be available to the public sector to manage systems, collect payments, monitor performance, and improve service quality over the long-term.

72. Alstone, P., Gershenson, D., Turman-Bryant, N., Kammen, D.N. & Jacobson, A. (2015). Off-grid power and connectivity: Pay-as-you-go financing and digital supply chains for pico-solar. Lighting Global market research report. Retrieved from: https://www.lightingglobal.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/Off_Grid_Power_and_Connectivity_PAYG_May_2015.pdf

73. LIGTT/LBNL (2014). 50 Breakthroughs: critical scientific and technological advances needed for sustainable global development. Retrieved from: https://www.ligtt.org/50-breakthroughs

74. Bardouille, P., Avato, P., Levin, J., Pantelias, A., & Engelmann-Pilger, H. (2012). From gap to opportunity: Business models for scaling up energy access. International Finance Corporation. Retrieved from: http://www.ifc.org/wps/wcm/connect/topics_ext_content/ifc_external_corporate_site/ifc+sustainability/learning+and+adapting/knowledge+products/publications/publications_report_gap-opportunity

75. Alstone, P., Gershenson, D., Turman-Bryant, N., Kammen, D.N. & Jacobson, A. (2015). Off-grid power and connectivity: Pay-as-you-go financing and digital supply chains for pico-solar. Lighting Global market research report. Retrieved from: https://www.lightingglobal.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/Off_Grid_Power_and_Connectivity_PAYG_May_2015.pdf

The hope is that with more experience and successes, the business case for investing in these systems will become more solid as risks and transaction costs are reduced through experience.

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A number of private sector business models have been developed for energy access projects. However, because of the barriers facing private investment in larger micro-grid projects, many of these have been developed for the pico-power and solar home system markets.

One option is for a private enterprise to act like a utility which owns and operates the electricity production system themselves. � ese ‘distributed energy service companies’ (DESCOs) charge ongoing fees for the services they provide. In order to be successful, these companies must achieve short payback times because of limits on � nancing available in developing countries. Strategies for achieving this include careful management of the ratio of investment to revenue per user, keeping operational costs low while dedicating signi� cant revenues to cover them, incentivizing sales agents, building robust distribution networks, and remaining agnostic about the technologies they employ in order to ensure that no potential winning combinations of technologies and system types are discarded a priori.76

Another model is asset-for-purchase (AFP), where the systems themselves are sold to users over the course of a set payment period. AFP models have shown signi� cant consumer bene� ts including the ability to generate con� dence in technologies through o� ering customers the ability to use products for a set period of time before owning it outright. Many AFP companies therefore o� er to take back and provide a refund for any products which customers are unhappy with. Once ownership is transferred however, customers are able to leverage the asset to acquire additional system components, and their repayment history on the initial asset can be used to establish credit records that can lead to � nancing for other (non-energy) purchases or entrepreneurial undertakings.77

Business to business models also exist. In these schemes, hardware, software and service delivery support is sold to ‘last mile’ energy service providers such as DESCOs. � e Anchor-Business-Community model is another variation, which has allowed private investment into much larger energy access projects. � is is made possible through the identi� cation of a so-called ‘anchor client’ within an area of low energy access. � e anchor client is a larger more reliable electricity customer that guarantees consistent payment for services. Common anchor clients include industrial mills, agricultural processors or large community buildings such as hospitals.78 Unfortunately, in many of the most impoverished regions of the globe, prospective anchor clients are few and far between.79

Business models that aim to alleviate the issue of weak consumer demand and ability to pay by o� ering small monthly payments for services are sometimes referred to ‘pay-as-you-go’ (PAYG) models. � e PAYG market is highly dynamic, with new approaches entering markets all the time, and companies switching strategies frequently in order to � nd a model that works.

Many of these schemes leverage emerging ICT systems – piggybacking o� of developments in the mobile phone and banking sectors – to track energy use, collect payments and provide after sales service. � e application of large amounts of data about consumer behavior to business planning gives PAYG � rms important insights about the markets that they serve and gives them advantages over other players such as traditional utilities. � e focus on tracking consumer behavior also enables high quality after-sales service, direct relationships with customers and remote monitoring of system performance.80

76. Bardouille, P., & Muench, D. (2014). How a New Breed of Distributed Energy Services Companies can reach 500 mm energy-poor customers within a decade: A commercial solution to the energy access challenge. Retrieved from : http://global-off-grid-lighting-association. org/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/DESCO-A-commercial-approach-to-energy-access-for-all. pdf.

77. Bardouille, P., Avato, P., Levin, J., Pantelias, A., & Engelmann-Pilger, H. (2012). From gap to opportunity: Business models for scaling up energy access. International Finance Corporation. Retrieved from: http://www.ifc.org/wps/wcm/connect/topics_ext_content/ifc_external_corporate_site/ifc+sustainability/learning+and+adapting/knowledge+products/publications/publications_report_gap-opportunity

78. Palit, D., & Sarangi, G. K. (2014). Renewable energy-based rural electrification: the mini-grid experience from India. UNEP Global Network on Energy for Sustainable Development. Retrieved from: http://www.unepdtu.org/~/media/Sites/Uneprisoe/News%20Item%20(pdfs)/GNESD%20publication_Mini%20grids%20India_web.ashx?la=da

79. LIGTT/LBNL (2014). 50 Breakthroughs: critical scientific and technological advances needed for sustainable global development. Retrieved from: https://www.ligtt.org/50-breakthroughs

80. Bardouille, P., Avato, P., Levin, J., Pantelias, A., & Engelmann-Pilger, H. (2012). From gap to opportunity: Business models for scaling up energy access. International Finance Corporation. Retrieved from: http://www.ifc.org/wps/wcm/connect/topics_ext_content/ifc_external_corporate_site/ifc+sustainability/learning+and+adapting/knowledge+products/publications/publications_report_gap-opportunity

81. Schmidt, T.S. (2015). Will private sector finance support off-grid energy? In Heap, R.B (Ed) Smart Villages: New Thinking for Off-Grid Communities Worldwide. Retrieved from: http://e4sv.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/Smart-Villages-New-Thinking-for-Off-grid-Comunities-Worldwide.pdf

82. Bardouille, P., Avato, P., Levin, J., Pantelias, A., & Engelmann-Pilger, H. (2012). From gap to opportunity: Business models for scaling up energy access. International Finance Corporation. Retrieved from: http://www.ifc.org/wps/wcm/connect/topics_ext_content/ifc_external_corporate_site/ifc+sustainability/learning+and+adapting/knowledge+products/publications/publications_report_gap-opportunity

83. Holmes, J. & van Gevelt, T. (2015). Energy for development – the concept. In Heap, R.B (Ed) Smart Villages: New Thinking for Off-Grid Communities Worldwide. Retrieved from: http://e4sv.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/Smart-Villages-New-Thinking-for-Off-grid-Comunities-Worldwide.pdf

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Tracking repayment histories and ensuring reliable revenue collection are critical initial steps to enhancing the amount of private investment that these enterprises can attract.81 Fortunately, many � rms claim repayment rates of over 90%, which provides a foundation for further growth.82 Other issues that businesses must face include currency � uctuations when accessing capital from abroad, and the high relative transaction costs of � nancing, for example due to the fees charged by mobile network operators on the mobile money transactions that are central to many PAYG fee collection schemes.83

Another strategy for spurring private investment is the prospect of utilizing carbon markets to contribute project � nance. While there is potential for some projects to do so (those that replace kerosene fuel with clean cookstoves for example),84 the minimal volume of emissions that are being replaced by energy access projects and lack of monitoring and veri� cation poses a signi� cant challenge.85

It is clear that perceptions of high investment risks are a problem. But if private, for-pro� t energy access projects can successfully navigate the issues outlined above (and others not detailed), they can slowly build the more standardized business models that are needed in order to achieve universal energy access in the coming decades.86

Finally, a number of scholars have pointed to the potential bene� ts of ‘pooling’ micro-grid and other energy access projects into more diversi� ed portfolios in order to seek � nancing from investors for whom project-scale risks are too high (or uncertain) to garner serious interest. Such a strategy may help in a variety of ways: it can centralize some � xed and transaction costs at the project level; signi� cantly reduce investor risk through diversi� cation; lead to the

establishment of standards and common practices across projects; result in the collection and aggregation of larger sets of consumer and market data; and o� er more streamlined risk analysis to investors.87 � e creation of these portfolios could also bene� t the project types and scales that have fallen shortest in attracting investment: those attempting to utilize new technologies or micro-grid projects of a scale that falls between the ideal investment size of most funders. Grouping them together with more attractive investments may solve their problems.88

5.2 What is good energy policy?

For all their importance, � nancing and good technology alone cannot achieve everything necessary to opening up energy access. In this space, governments and the public sector are key actors too. Energy is a critical public good, and setting – and maintaining – a positive government energy agenda is a critical part of the challenge.89 Intractable as they may sometimes seem, it is time to pay some attention to policy issues.

Many barriers to the success of energy access projects stem from policy or regulatory issues that act to protect incumbent systems at the expense of investment in new technologies and markets.90 In order to spur investment, the public sector must act to create the necessary enabling environment for new styles of energy access projects to be successful. � is may include the establishment of appropriate policies and institutions, contributing � nancing support and actively encouraging collaboration across sectors including facilitation of private sector involvement.91

84. IEA. (2010). Energy Poverty: How to Make Modern Energy Access Universal? Retrieved from: http://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/weo2010_poverty.pdf

85. Palit, D., & Sarangi, G. K. (2014). Renewable energy-based rural electrification: the mini-grid experience from India. UNEP Global Network on Energy for Sustainable Development. Retrieved from: http://www.unepdtu.org/~/media/Sites/Uneprisoe/News%20Item%20(pdfs)/GNESD%20publication_Mini%20grids%20India_web.ashx?la=da

86. Schmidt, T.S. (2015). Will private sector finance support off-grid energy? In Heap, R.B (Ed) Smart Villages: New Thinking for Off-Grid Communities Worldwide. Retrieved from: http://e4sv.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/Smart-Villages-New-Thinking-for-Off-grid-Comunities-Worldwide.pdf

87. Gershenson, D., Tilleard, M., Cusack, J., Cooper, D., Monk, A. & Kammen, D.N. (2015). Increasing private capital investment into energy access: the case for mini-grid pooling facilities. UNEP. Retrieved from: http://apps.unep.org/publications/pmtdocuments/-Increasing_private_capital_investment_into_energy_access__The_case_for_mini-grid_pooling_.pdf

88. Bardouille, P., Avato, P., Levin, J., Pantelias, A., & Engelmann-Pilger, H. (2012). From gap to opportunity: Business models for scaling up energy access. International Finance Corporation. Retrieved from: http://www.ifc.org/wps/wcm/connect/topics_ext_content/ifc_external_corporate_site/ifc+sustainability/learning+and+adapting/knowledge+products/publications/publications_report_gap-opportunity

89. Caine, M., Lloyd, J., Luke, M., Margonelli, L., Moss, T., Nordhaus, T., Pielke Jr., R., Roman, M., Roy, J., Sarewitz, D., Schellenberger, M., Singh, K. & Trembath, A. (2014). Our high energy planet. The Breakthrough Institute. Retrieved from: http://thebreakthrough.org/index.php/programs/energy-and-climate/our-high-energy-planet

90. Kammen, D. (2015). Energy innovations for smart villages. In Heap, R.B (Ed) Smart Villages: New Thinking for Off-Grid Communities Worldwide. Retrieved from: http://e4sv.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/Smart-Villages-New-Thinking-for-Off-grid-Comunities-Worldwide.pdf

91. IEA. (2010). Energy Poverty: How to Make Modern Energy Access Universal? Retrieved from: http://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/weo2010_poverty.pdf

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With pioneering projects, many required inputs, such as surveys of energy use or demand potential, are prohibitively expensive or are seen as public goods. Governments must act to provide these; doing so can be crucial to attracting private investment. Examples include the collection of information about markets and available resources, initiating consumer awareness campaigns that build public trust in new technologies and systems, and providing appropriate regulation to govern their use.92

In an area where “base of pyramid” customers provide a di� cult business case, governments must act to spur investment appropriately. � is means appropriate targeting of public sector investments in contexts where private money is not forthcoming due to perceived technical and � nancial risks, and supporting private sector investments with policies that act to open up markets. � e creation of government programs that cover high up-front costs for consumers with weak purchasing power has historically been e� ective in encouraging private sector interest.93

It is also important that public investments do not ‘spoil’ markets through over-investment in cases where a private sector led approach may be more appropriate. Over-subsidizing technologies can stunt innovation and impede the market penetration of products that would otherwise be commercially viable. � is balancing act must be targeted at closing the ‘viability gap’: the shortfall between potential revenues from customers and the necessary costs incurred by developers in ensuring the viability of projects over time.94 Past experience shows that without such interventions in markets, the distribution of public goods, including improved energy services, is often ine� ective.95 � e existence of subsidies for incumbent systems such as fossil fuel use is an important case where government action is needed. Phase-out of these policies has shown to be crucial to unlocking greater opportunities for decentralized clean energy projects, but must be undertaken in a manner that does not result in the deprivation of energy-poor individuals that rely on existing technologies for their welfare. In this vein, some scholars have suggested that, in some contexts, short-term direct � nancial assistance to consumers can be more e� ective than subsidy removal.96

Governments and international institutions such as the UN also have a key role to play in evaluating energy needs and setting appropriate energy access targets. Increasingly, international institutions and the energy access community have emphasized the importance of setting goals related to ‘energy services’ (i.e. providing the end-use services such as lighting, pumping water, etc.) rather than total energy provision in kWh or otherwise.

However, a more nuanced understanding of the impacts of energy service delivery to permeate local, regional, national and international agendas is necessary. Simply using a have/have-not dichotomy misses many key aspects, particularly the quality of services as they relate to human health, community well-being and economic development.97

Two frameworks which have been created to better capture these dynamics are the Global Tracking Framework (GTF) created by the UN Sustainable Energy for All program, and the Energy Development Index (EDI) of the International Energy Agency.

� e GTF measures both energy supplies and services; covers household and community energy services; incorporates employment-based metrics; and recognizes the bene� ts of o� -grid and decentralized systems in providing various energy services.98

� e EDI has been developed to mirror the UN’s Human Development Index and lead to a better understanding of the role of energy in human development. It comprises four indicators which capture various aspects of energy poverty: per capita commercial energy consumption, which serves as an indicator of the overall economic development of a country; per capita electricity consumption in the residential sector, which serves as an indicator of consumer ability to pay for electricity services; the share of modern fuels in total residential sector energy use, which serves as an indicator of the level of access to clean cooking facilities; and the share of the population with access to electricity.

� e use of these more advanced energy access metrics, alongside greater integration of energy access agendas between local, regional, national and international agencies, should act to sharpen energy access e� orts worldwide. Capacity-building

92. Bardouille, P., Avato, P., Levin, J., Pantelias, A., & Engelmann-Pilger, H. (2012). From gap to opportunity: Business models for scaling up energy access. International Finance Corporation. Retrieved from: http://www.ifc.org/wps/wcm/connect/topics_ext_content/ifc_external_corporate_site/ifc+sustainability/learning+and+adapting/knowledge+products/publications/publications_report_gap-opportunity

93. Kammen, D. (2015). Energy innovations for smart villages. In Heap, R.B (Ed) Smart Villages: New Thinking for Off-Grid Communities Worldwide. Retrieved from: http://e4sv.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/Smart-Villages-New-Thinking-for-Off-grid-Comunities-Worldwide.pdf

94. IEA. (2010). Energy Poverty: How to Make Modern Energy Access Universal? Retrieved from: http://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/weo2010_poverty.pdf

95. Sovacool, B.K. (2015). Public policy targets for energy access. In Heap, R.B (Ed) Smart Villages: New Thinking for Off-Grid Communities Worldwide. Retrieved from: http://e4sv.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/Smart-Villages-New-Thinking-for-Off-grid-Comunities-Worldwide.pdf

96. Kammen, D. (2015). Energy innovations for smart villages. In Heap, R.B (Ed) Smart Villages: New Thinking for Off-Grid Communities Worldwide. Retrieved from: http://e4sv.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/Smart-Villages-New-Thinking-for-Off-grid-Comunities-Worldwide.pdf

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together with co-ordination between the various public-sector levels (for example in relation to monitoring of progress) can both bene� t the e� cacy of electri� cation projects and have wider bene� ts. � e role of regional power pools in encouraging greater regional economic integration in Africa is an example of this type of co-bene� t.99

Goal-setting and co-ordination of macro-agendas at the international level is not a simple task. Some commentators have criticized the current UN approach – embodied in its SE4ALL initiative – for over-emphasizing climate and environmental goals over economic development metrics. � e metrics proposed by SE4ALL and the IEA may act to de� ne electricity access at levels that are still unacceptably low. For example, the SE4ALL framework de� nes having access as being able to use a yearly amount of electricity that compares to what an average American uses in little more than a week, whereas in the IEA framework the amount is comparable to the consumption of an average cable TV box. � e highest tier for energy access used by the World Bank is only 10% of what the average Bulgarian uses. � ese targets are useful in the intermediate term but they highlight the need to develop longer-term goals which confront the fact that much more energy will be needed in order to raise the standard of living in developing regions to that of today’s developed world. � e potential con� icts and trade-o� s with climate and environmental goals should not be ignored, but neither is it clear that they should be the determinant by which targets are set.100

5.3 Is current technology good enough?

� e answer to the above question is an important part of coordinating an approach to global energy access. � e untapped potential for renewable energy generation in Africa (especially from solar power), for instance, provides a compelling case for technological innovation on solar power systems targeted at the African market. However, these markets feature consumers with the lowest ability to pay for

energy services. A 2014 study by Lawrence Berkeley National Labs found that the overall monthly cost of electricity from renewable micro-grid sources utilizing existing technology averages US$ 20 per month. � is compares with ideal monthly energy expenditure rates (10% of income) of US$ 1.50 – 7.50 for ‘low-income’, ‘subsistence’ and ‘extremely poor’ households. Technological breakthroughs to lower the cost of these systems are therefore seen as crucially important for serving these markets sustainably.101 � e Berkeley study highlights � ve areas of technological innovation crucial to unlocking the potential of renewable energy access technologies:

1. A suite of solar photovoltaic micro-grid components, to signi� cantly reduce upfront costs

2. Appliances for household use (e.g., TVs, refrigerators) and income generation (e.g., irrigation pumps), which are signi� cantly more a� ordable and energy e� cient than those on the market today

3. New bulk storage technologies for micro-grids, which provide improved performance at a signi� cantly lower cost

4. A� ordable and easy-to-use grid management solutions(ICT) for decentralized renewable energy rural mini-grids

5. A ‘utility-in-a-box’ for making it simpler, cheaper and faster to set up and operate renewable energy micro-grids 102

5.4 How do we make energy access innovations sustainable?

While adopting well-crafted policy and utilizing appropriate business models is crucial for delivering energy services to underserved markets, the long-term success of these initiatives relies on other factors. Any successful energy infrastructure requires a fully-functioning after-sales service and long-term operational strategies to deal with changing demand, setting of tari� s, the repair and operations of energy systems, and the functional evolution of the system over time.103

97. Practical Action (2014). Poor people’s energy outlook 2014: key messages on energy for poverty alleviation. Rugby, UK: Practical Action Publishing.

98. Sovacool, B.K. (2015). Public policy targets for energy access. In Heap, R.B (Ed) Smart Villages: New Thinking for Off-Grid Communities Worldwide. Retrieved from: http://e4sv.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/Smart-Villages-New-Thinking-for-Off-grid-Comunities-Worldwide.pdf

99. Kammen, D. (2015). Energy innovations for smart villages. In Heap, R.B (Ed) Smart Villages: New Thinking for Off-Grid Communities Worldwide. Retrieved from: http://e4sv.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/Smart-Villages-New-Thinking-for-Off-grid-Comunities-Worldwide.pdf

100. Caine, M., Lloyd, J., Luke, M., Margonelli, L., Moss, T., Nordhaus, T., Pielke Jr., R., Roman, M., Roy, J., Sarewitz, D., Schellenberger, M., Singh, K. & Trembath, A. (2014). Our high energy planet. The Breakthrough Institute.

101. GIZ (2011) Modern energy services for modern agriculture: A review for smallholder farming in developing countries, GIZ – HERA – Poverty-orientated Basic Energy Services, Bonn and Eschborn, Germany. Available from: http://poweringag.org/sites/default/files/giz201-en-energy-services-for-modern-agriculture.pdf

102. LIGTT/LBNL (2014). 50 Breakthroughs: critical scientific and technological advances needed for sustainable global development. Retrieved from: https://www.ligtt.org/50-breakthroughs

103. Palit, D., & Sarangi, G. K. (2014). Renewable energy-based rural electrification: the mini-grid experience from India. UNEP Global Network on Energy for Sustainable Development. Retrieved from: http://www.unepdtu.org/~/media/Sites/Uneprisoe/News%20Item%20(pdfs)/GNESD%20publication_Mini%20grids%20India_web.ashx?la=da

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� e added value of ensuring long-term service sustainability is that it has to rely on the development of local technical expertise, comprehensive education about the services being delivered and the full involvement of the community in decision-making processes. � us, if carried out correctly, energy access projects can result in local job creation, stronger local governance and increased trust and awareness about the bene� ts of these systems. Focusing on these aspects encourages a longer-term strategy aimed at growing an emergent entrepreneurial middle class in impoverished areas and thereby encouraging local economic development and skill acquisition.

Ensuring the presence of su� cient numbers of well-quali� ed sta� to operate micro-grids, provide sales and after-sales service for pico-power products, or perform other roles can be a major challenge – one that frequently threatens the success of energy

access initiatives. Impoverished rural areas struggle to attract and retain quali� ed sta� due to lower living standards and remoteness.104 Providing training for locals (especially young people) is thus often important to ensuring local expertise over the long term. It can also provide a pathway to meaningful economic development through local employment in ‘green jobs’ such as sales agents, technicians, subdistributors, and other roles.105 Past studies have suggested that experience in such roles often results in greater employability in other sectors as well, and that this can be a pathway towards economic freedom, especially for young people.106 In particular, the acquisition of basic IT skills has been shown to enhance the economic prospects of rural populations.107

� e importance of expertise also suggests that in the planning of energy access projects, technical and non-technical matters are closely interconnected and should be managed in concert.

104. Kammen, D. (2015). Energy innovations for smart villages. In Heap, R.B (Ed) Smart Villages: New Thinking for Off-Grid Communities Worldwide. Retrieved from: http://e4sv.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/Smart-Villages-New-Thinking-for-Off-grid-Comunities-Worldwide.pdf

105. Bardouille, P., Avato, P., Levin, J., Pantelias, A., & Engelmann-Pilger, H. (2012). From gap to opportunity: Business models for scaling up energy access. International Finance Corporation. Retrieved from: http://www.ifc.org/wps/wcm/connect/topics_ext_content/ifc_external_corporate_site/ifc+sustainability/learning+and+adapting/knowledge+products/publications/publications_report_gap-opportunity

106. LIGTT/LBNL (2014). 50 Breakthroughs: critical scientific and technological advances needed for sustainable global development. Retrieved from: https://www.ligtt.org/50-breakthroughs

107. Laidin, A.Z. (2015). Smart villages – the Malaysian approach. In Heap, R.B (Ed) Smart Villages: New Thinking for Off-Grid Communities Worldwide. Retrieved from: http://e4sv.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/Smart-Villages-New-Thinking-for-Off-grid-Comunities-Worldwide.pdf

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Chapter #: Chapter Title

Technology should be chosen not only for its robustness but also for how it overlaps with the available knowledge and skill-sets of local people. � is is important if the project is to avoid outsourcing employment. What’s more, training programs and local hiring practices have shown to enhance trust in the project amongst consumers and lead to a higher willingness to pay, providing a greater chance of long-term revenue generation and overall project sustainability.

In addition to ensuring proper training and local expertise, the organizational systems and structures of agencies and other groups that operate energy access projects can be crucial

to success of projects over time. Economically viable projects can and have failed on account of improper management or poorly thought out institutional arrangements. � is is evident in the failure of projects that have put undue focus on technical matters such as installation while lacking a clear delineation of the roles and responsibilities of stakeholders.108

Further evidence points to the importance of ‘participatory governance systems’ at the local level which can support decision-making about projects over time and deal with unexpected challenges. � ey also provide a clear local voice in discussions with other stakeholders such as external project developers, national or regional governments, business interests and non-pro� t groups. In Indian micro-grid cases this has shown to be particularly e� ective. Communities and external developers in India often form joint clusters of individuals acting in roles from plant operations to complaint redress to revenue collection. Many projects are implemented on the premise of community control of the system, with expertise lent through the involvement of external developers. It is noted that communities with

stronger local governance systems are more well-suited to this community-driven approach.

In the area of tari� -setting, the leadership of locals in decision-making has been particularly e� ective. Rather than setting tari� s purely based on the cost of generation, tari� -setting committees have taken other factors into account such as equity, income distribution, the availability of anchor clients and government funding. Tari� s that are set based on this balance between a� ordability and cost of generation have proven successful in a number of Indian mini-grid projects.109

In addition, further awareness-raising and capacity building on the ground may inspire others to build and operate new energy access projects, resulting in greater investment, e� ciencies of scale and a larger pool of skilled local labour.110

When designed and operated through e� ective organizational structures and local input, energy access programs have created economic (and other) bene� ts to the communities that they serve that outweigh costs. Examples include micro-hydro projects in Nepal which have produced US$ 8 of economic bene� t per household per US$ 1.40 invested; a project in Sri Lanka which allowed the community to invest three times the project cost in the market after the project was completed (showing signi� cant private sector involvement was catalyzed); and the Solar Sister entrepreneur program in Sub-Saharan Africa which, according to the UN, generates more than US$ 46 of economic bene� ts per dollar invested in the � rst year alone. � e return on investment for improved cookstove projects has proven even more signi� cant, documented at over 400% for a pair of projects in Liberia and Kenya. � ere is a sting in the tail, however. � ese returns do not all accrue for the parties making the investment; they result from improved quality of life and economic opportunities for customers. Although it is possible to create sustainable energy access, satisfying investors’ needs remains a challenge.111

108. Alstone, P., Gershenson, D., Turman-Bryant, N., Kammen, D.N. & Jacobson, A. (2015). Off-grid power and connectivity: Pay-as-you-go financing and digital supply chains for pico-solar. Lighting Global market research report. Retrieved from: https://www.lightingglobal.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/Off_Grid_Power_and_Connectivity_PAYG_May_2015.pdf

109. Alstone, P., Gershenson, D., Turman-Bryant, N., Kammen, D.N. & Jacobson, A. (2015). Off-grid power and connectivity: Pay-as-you-go financing and digital supply chains for pico-solar. Lighting Global market research report. Retrieved from: https://www.lightingglobal.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/Off_Grid_Power_and_Connectivity_PAYG_May_2015.pdf

110. Mnzava, A. (2015). Energy policies for off-grid villages in Tanzania. In Heap, R.B (Ed) Smart Villages: New Thinking for Off-Grid Communities Worldwide. Retrieved from: http://e4sv.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/Smart-Villages-New-Thinking-for-Off-grid-Comunities-Worldwide.pdf

111. Sovacool, B.K. (2015). Public policy targets for energy access. In Heap, R.B (Ed) Smart Villages: New Thinking for Off-Grid Communities Worldwide. Retrieved from: http://e4sv.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/Smart-Villages-New-Thinking-for-Off-grid-Comunities-Worldwide.pdf

When designed and operated through effective organizational structures and local input, energy access programs have created economic (and other) benefits to the communities that they serve that outweigh costs.

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Providing global access to energy will not result from external imposition of external ‘solutions’. While energy for all is a goal laid out by global bodies, its achievement will result from partnership. According to Deepak Nayyar, Professor of Economics at Jawaharlal Nehru University, “� e bottom billion must be seen as agents, or participants, in a process who can shape their destinies, rather than as patients, or passive recipients of the bene� ts from development programs designed by benevolent governments or institutions.”112

What’s more, it is important to recognize that energy can have pervasive social e� ects – not all of them positive. Delivering new energy systems to areas with a history of traditional methods of cooking, lighting and commercial activity will undoubtedly change the social and economic make-up of these communities. Some of these social considerations provide challenges to energy access projects. Challenges include theft and tampering with energy products, especially with the mobile banking and ICT systems that are critical to regulating tari� payment and providing after sales service in pico-power markets. Another major hurdle is generating trust in new technologies in areas where traditional methods of service provision have been in use for a long time, and where traditional community values and mistrust of interventions from the developed world are common.

Because of the large amount of data collected about customers through use of ICT, privacy concerns have been noted in some focus groups of new customers.113 For companies, tampering

and theft are also concerns that arise from the use of ICT systems (as experience in the mobile phone industry has demonstrated). Interviews with some of these companies have shown however that this is not considered a signi� cant risk to businesses.67 Illegal electrical connections set up by untrained individuals are a more serious concern due to safety issues.114 Awareness-raising about technologies, their bene� ts and proper use has been an important tactic to overcome some of the growing pains of their introduction into developing world markets. Such campaigns can however be expensive and often may be best left to the public sector rather than corporations.66

For all the challenges, renewable decentralized energy systems o� er signi� cant opportunities. A key one is employment, Nayyar points out. “For people who do not have the income to meet their basic needs, often in villages that have no energy access, employment opportunities are the only sustainable means of reducing and eradicating poverty,” he says. “Moreover, employment creation and entrepreneurial activity mobilize the most abundant yet under-utilized resource in poor countries – the people for development.”115

Achieving wide access to reliable energy will undoubtedly improve social welfare. � is includes addressing issues of gender inequality and in providing energy services that free large sections of the local population from the drudgery and inconvenience that often accompanies the use of traditional energy products such as kerosene lights and dirty cookstoves.

6. Next StepsMeeting the challenge and taking the chance

112. Nayyar, D. (2015). A better future for the bottom billion. In Heap, R.B (Ed) Smart Villages: New Thinking for Off-Grid Communities Worldwide. Retrieved from: http://e4sv.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/Smart-Villages-New-Thinking-for-Off-grid-Comunities-Worldwide.pdf

113. Bardouille, P., Avato, P., Levin, J., Pantelias, A., & Engelmann-Pilger, H. (2012). From gap to opportunity: Business models for scaling up energy access. International Finance Corporation. Retrieved from: http://www.ifc.org/wps/wcm/connect/topics_ext_content/ifc_external_corporate_site/ifc+sustainability/learning+and+adapting/knowledge+products/publications/publications_report_gap-opportunity

114. Ssali, M.J. (2015). How electricity changed our lives. In Heap, R.B (Ed) Smart Villages: New Thinking for Off-Grid Communities Worldwide. Retrieved from: http://e4sv.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/Smart-Villages-New-Thinking-for-Off-grid-Comunities-Worldwide.pdf

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6. Next Steps

Women, children and young adults have the most to gain from the adoption of these systems. For women, replacing the traditional methods of energy provision promises to save countless hours of work collecting fuel, and improve health by eliminating the operation of dirty appliances. � ere is also evidence that involving women in o� -grid electri� cation projects can bene� t project e� ectiveness and also provide signi� cant economic and social opportunities to the women involved. An example is the Barefoot Women Solar Engineers Association of Sierra Leone, which was formed on the basis of providing electricity to the most inaccessible regions of the country through involving those who stand to bene� t most from the technologies – women – as agents of change. � e program provides training to women in how to promote, set up and operate solar energy technologies. � e foundation of the program is to foster the independence of women and girls through compassion, dignity and respect. It has been successful in not only improving their lives but also driving forward the adoption of these systems across the country, resulting in plans for a signi� cant scale-up of the program beyond 2015, with the goal of electrifying villages in all 14 of the country’s electoral districts.116

For young people eager to start their own businesses, electricity is a crucial asset bene� tting their ability to � nd economic freedom and climb out of poverty. Many young people in rural areas migrate to urban areas to seek opportunity; however the potential for new electricity

access programs to provide direct employment and further economic opportunities with their rural villages promises to make staying home a more attractive proposition. Electri� ed villages can also provide the amenities that young people crave, from television to discotheques to opportunities for self-employment.117 Enlivening local life and providing opportunities for energy impoverished individuals to not only bene� t from but also help create their new electri� ed communities must be central to energy access projects, wherever they might be carried out.

For all these reasons and more, it is important to lay out speci� c questions that will require answers before anyone can identify the best path towards opening up energy access to all. At the October Workshop, WGSI will assemble individuals with expertise in basic sciences and technology, economics, innovation in design of solutions, social and cultural dimensions of technology adoption and � eld deployment in communities with minimal, unreliable and low access to energy. � rough a moderated discussion based on this brie� ng document, participants will share their speci� c expertise and perspectives with the assembled group, re� ect upon what is being missed by existing initiatives such as the UN SE4ALL and the e� orts of the World Bank, NGOs and philanthropic organizations working in energy access space. Everyone involved will assess the importance of these gaps, identify others, and recommend a program of activities to address at the April’s OpenAccess Energy Summit.

115. Nayyar, D. (2015). A better future for the bottom billion. In Heap, R.B (Ed) Smart Villages: New Thinking for Off-Grid Communities Worldwide. Retrieved from: http://e4sv.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/Smart-Villages-New-Thinking-for-Off-grid-Comunities-Worldwide.pdf

116. Thorpe, C.A. (2015). Improving life for women and girls in Sierra Leone. In Heap, R.B (Ed) Smart Villages: New Thinking for Off-Grid Communities Worldwide. Retrieved from: http://e4sv.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/Smart-Villages-New-Thinking-for-Off-grid-Comunities-Worldwide.pdf

117. Ssali, M.J. (2015). How electricity changed our lives. In Heap, R.B (Ed) Smart Villages: New Thinking for Off-Grid Communities Worldwide. Retrieved from: http://e4sv.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/Smart-Villages-New-Thinking-for-Off-grid-Comunities-Worldwide.pdf

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28 OpenAccess Energy BRIEF

7.1 Technology

Breakthrough innovations: What kinds of breakthrough innovations could signi� cantly reduce the cost structure of electricity provision in rural/remote areas? Can energy system research e� orts be better aligned to deliver these innovations?

Scaling of energy systems: Can pico-power, home systems and community micro-grids be scaled up su� ciently to provide electricity on the scale seen in the developed world? Can/should integration with the grid be considered a necessary long-term goal for these systems and how can this be achieved e� ciently?

Technological Integration: What innovations in � elds outside of renewable energy delivery systems (in areas such as ICT for example) might be harnessed to enhance energy access e� orts?

7. 2 Financing

Business models: Are any clear winning strategies emerging? What makes these private projects work where others have failed or continue to rely on public funding? How can they be replicated on a larger scale?

Subsidies: In what situations can public � nancing for micro-grid projects result in dependency and lack of project sustainability over the long term? What impacts would phase-outs of fossil fuel subsidies have on the � nancing of renewable energy access projects?

Project standardization: To what degree is that standardization of pilot projects (in terms of size, technologies, � nancing schemes, etc.) useful to generating interest from investors through lower perceptions of risk? Given the di� erences between projects is this a wise strategy over the long term, or should di� erent contexts inspire a greater desire to � nd unique local solutions?

7. Appendix: Knowledge Gaps

There follows a preliminary list of unresolved questions,challenges and uncertainties that will, we hope, start this process.

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7. Appendix: Knowledge Gaps

7.3 Policy

Working with the private sector: To what degree should the role of governments and public institutions be to encourage private investment and business models to establish electri� cation e� orts? In what contexts does electricity need to be seen as a public good that can only be provided adequately by government?

Goal-setting: What is the ideal level of energy provision per household or community? How should the minimum acceptable kWh be determined and communicated in the policy realm?

7.4 Social Factors

Urbanization: What are the causal links between electricity access and migration? Will rural electri� cation e� orts help to stem the tide of urbanization by enhancing rural life, and should this approach therefore by prioritized over e� orts to provide safe, reliable grid-based electricity to the increasingly large number of people who live in ‘informal’ urban and peri-urban dwellings?

Training and expertise: Do the bene� ts of local training and expertise (local employment, skill development, community participation, etc.) outweigh the costs (time needed to train, expense of training, lack of capable applicants)?

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30 OpenAccess Energy BRIEF

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