brewers association power hour covid-19 · 4/3/2019 · covid-19 on premise impact report issue #2...

COVID-19ON PREMISE IMPACT

N i e l s e n C G A - 0 4 . 0 3 . 2 0 2 0

Brewers Assoc ia t ion Power Hour

About Nielsen CGA

• CGA was established 30 years ago in England

• Specialist On Premise consultancy

• World-leading On Premise services in UK,

France & US

• Global strategic partner of Nielsen

• After 4 years in the US – We have built a full

suite of measurement, consumer & analytics

services; many the first of their kind for the US

Matthew has managed and provided consultancy

for some of the largest Bev Al manufacturers

across Europe. In January 2014, Matthew became

part of the joint venture between CGA and Nielsen

which has helped bring the first ever truly robust on

premise measurement service to the US.

Matt is a craft beer and beverage management

professional. He has over 15 years experience

working in the complex on-premise market and

three tier system. When he’s not drinking beer and

traveling for work, Matt likes to drink beer and

travel for pleasure.

Matthew Crompton – Client Solutions Director Matt Drummond – Client Solutions Manager

Agenda

COVID-19 Impact Report – Delivery & Takeout

Brewpub/Tap Room Channel Strategy

BA Craft Beer Knowledge Center

Q & A

COVID-19 On Premise Impact Report issue #2 focuses on the

attitudes of consumers to take out/delivery both from a food and an

alcohol point of view.

To analyze this topic we surveyed 1,200 consumers from four states

- NY, California, Illinois and Florida, over the weekend (March 28-

29) and analyzed sales trends from our RestauranTrak dataset

(week ending March 21 + March 28).

RestauranTrak (powered by CLIP) dataset consists of over 10,000 transaction-level POS feeds from a geographically

balanced set of outlets. Predominantly consisting of independently owned concepts and small, often unbranded groups,

RestauranTrak can be seen as a robust measure to complement other credible industry sources that are focused mainly

on larger chains.

IMPACT REPORT OVERVIEW

T O TA L U S

Source: RestauranTrak ACV Sales 2 Weeks w/e March 28 + Custom Consumer Research

-73% w/e March 21

-77% w/e March 28

R e s t a u r a n Tr a k S a l e s D a t a

11% Pre-CV19 Takeout/Delivery Share

+110% Overall Takeout/Delivery Increase

Ta k e o u t / D e l i v e r y S t a t s

O v e r a l l $ S a l e s Ve l o c i t y

If all outlets across the US On Premise are closed for March and April 2020 there would be approx.

17.8m 288oz EQ of BA Craft beer sales lost.

L O S T V O L U M E D U E T O C O V I D - 1 9 I M P A C T

Source: NCGA OPM DATA TO 4 W/E 01/25/20

7,600,000

7,800,000

8,000,000

8,200,000

8,400,000

8,600,000

8,800,000

9,000,0004 W

/E 0

1/2

7/2

01

8

4 W

/E 0

2/2

4/2

01

8

4 W

/E 0

3/2

4/2

01

8

4 W

/E 0

4/2

1/2

01

8

4 W

/E 0

5/1

9/2

01

8

4 W

/E 0

6/1

6/2

01

8

4 W

/E 0

7/1

4/2

01

8

4 W

/E 0

8/1

1/2

01

8

4 W

/E 0

9/0

8/2

01

8

4 W

/E 1

0/0

6/2

01

8

4 W

/E 1

1/0

3/2

01

8

4 W

/E 1

2/0

1/2

01

8

4 W

/E 1

2/2

9/2

01

8

4 W

/E 0

1/2

6/2

01

9

4 W

/E 0

2/2

3/2

01

9

4 W

/E 0

3/2

3/2

01

9

4 W

/E 0

4/2

0/2

01

9

4 W

/E 0

5/1

8/2

01

9

4 W

/E 0

6/1

5/2

01

9

4 W

/E 0

7/1

3/2

01

9

4 W

/E 0

8/1

0/2

01

9

4 W

/E 0

9/0

7/2

01

9

4 W

/E 1

0/0

5/2

01

9

4 W

/E 1

1/0

2/2

01

9

4 W

/E 1

1/3

0/2

01

9

4 W

/E 1

2/2

8/2

01

9

4 W

/E 0

1/2

5/2

02

0

Pre

dic

ted: 4

W/E

02/2

2/2

0

Pre

dic

ted: 4

W/E

03/2

1/2

0

Pre

dic

ted: 4

W/E

04/1

8/2

0

4 Weekly CE BA CRAFT VOLUME

T O TA L U S


21% 21 to 34 year olds

30% 35 to 54 year olds

9% 55 plus years old

D r i n k i n g m o r e t h a n u s u a l

22% Drinking more than usual

28% Drinking less than usual

50% Drinking the same

C o n s u m e r P u l s e S u r v e y

N E W YO R K S TAT E


-85% Sales Velocity

-64% Number of Checks

-57% Check Average






* Shelter in place ordered for March 20th

C A L I F O R N I A

-80% Sales Velocity

-50% Number of Checks

-50% Check Average






Source: RestauranTrak ACV Sales 2 Weeks w/e March 28 + Custom Consumer Research * Shelter in place ordered for March 19th

I L L I N O I S

Source: RestauranTrak ACV Sales + Custom Consumer Research






-77% w/e March 21 Sales Velocity


* Shelter in place ordered for March 21st

F L O R I DA









* Shelter in place ordered for April 2nd

T O TA L U S


66% Have ordered takeout/delivery over past 2 weeks

15% Have ordered alcohol with takeout/delivery

Ta k e o u t & D e l i v e r y

T O TA L U S


61% Expect to pay more for takeout/delivery than retail

58% Ordered alcohol to avoid going to grocery store

24% Have purchased alcohol bundles on offer

Ta k e o u t & D e l i v e r y Fa c t o r s

Over half of those that have ordered alcohol with takeout/delivery have purchase craft beer, showing high

demand for the category

D R I N K S O R D E R E D W I T H TA K E O U T / D E L I V E R Y

37%

42%

43%

44%

47%

47%

50%

51%

55%

60%

Neat Spirit

Dom Non-Craft Beer

Sparkling wine/Champagne

Cocktail kit

Spirit Mixer

Pre-made cocktails

White Wine

Craft Beer

Imported Beer

Red Wine

Alcohol Type Ordered

Source: Custom Consumer Research

16

W H AT R E A L LY S E T S O U T C R A F T D R I N K E R S W H E N C H O O S I N G

W H AT T O D R I N K , I S T H E D R I N K B E I N G U N I Q U E . T H I S I S A L S O A

T O P FA C T O R F O R C H O O S I N G A L C O H O L TA K E O U T A N D D E L I V E R Y

34%Of craft drinkers, state uniqueness as

a factor influencing drink choice

+11ppVs Avg brewpub/tap room visitor

Source: NCGA Channel Strategy Report July 2019. Base size: (389-679)

COVID-19 Impact Report Custom Consumer Research

31%say they ordered takeout/delivery in the

past 2 weeks from a venue due to a

specific drink offering

T H E E A R LY E V E N I N G I S T H E M O S T P O P U L A R T I M E T O V I S I T B R E W P U B / TA P R O O M S , T H I S I S A L S O T H E P E A K T I M E O F DAY F O R TA K E O U T / D E L I V E R Y S E R V I C E .

Nielsencga.com 17

3%

14%

25%

53%

29%

23%

8%

Brunch Lunch Mid-afternoon(2pm-5pm)

Early evening(5pm-8pm)

Happy hour Late evening(8pm-10pm)

Late night(10pm

onwards)

The average

brewpub visitor

spends

$24.67On drinks per visit

to this channel

Source: NCGA Channel Strategy Report July 2019. Base size: (679-680)

RestauranTrak ACV Sales w/e March 28th

Which of the following times of day did you visit brewpubs/tap rooms in the past 3 months?

Early Evening is top

time of day for

takeout/delivery

sales $ velocity

Brewpub and Taproom v is i to r s over index when exper iment ing w i th d i f fe rent c ho ices and us ing s oc ia l med ia to f ind new p laces to eat o r d r ink .

Nielsencga.com 18Source: NCGA Channel Strategy Report July 2019. Base size: (679-680)

RestauranTrak ACV Sales w/e March 28th

I believe bars and restaurants could do

more to promote sustainability and the

environment82% -1pp

Brands are important to me when

choosing drinks 81% +2pp

I like to experiment with different drink

choices73% +9pp

I believe technology should be used

more by bars and restaurants71% +2pp

I use social media to find new places

to visit, eat or drink64% +7pp

General Attitudes - % agree with statements

Index vs. Avg US

ON PREMISE KNOWLEDGE CENTER

Nielsencga.com 19

20

O N PREMISE KNOW L ED GE PORTA L

21

O N PREMISE KNOW L ED GE PORTA L

Measurement Data

The first ever, fully projected, US

on premise market measurement

tool for beer, wine and spirits

O n Premis e Meas ure

23

Measurement Data

Facts

• D ol la r Sa les• Vo lume Sales• Tot a l BevA l• Seg ment• Subs eg ment• Beer Sty le

Consumer Data

An in-depth survey of 30,000 on premise

consumers. Census representative by

age, gender and location.

O n P r e m i s e U s e r S u r v ey

25

Consumer Data

Demographics

• A g e• Gender• Income• Ser ve Pre fe rence• Nat iona l Accounts

Analytic Data

POS data from 10,000+

independent and chain on

premise outlets.

C h e c k L ev e l I n s i g h t s Po o l

27

Analytic Data

Reports

• T ime of day• D ay of week• Sty le ve loc i t y• Subsegment ve loc i t y

Additional Features

Questions?

Nielsen CGA’s sole focus is to measure, understand and consult on

the On Premise channel. In these testing times, this has never been

more important.

Following on from Issue 1 of our COVID-19 On Premise Impact

Report, which focused on sales and consumer behavior leading up

to the mandated closure of the channel, we asked you, our valued

client base, which topic you would like us to focus on for Issue 2. The

number one topic was overwhelmingly attitudes of consumers to take

out/delivery both from a food and an alcohol point of view.

To analyze this topic we once again surveyed 1,200 consumers from

four states - NY, California, Illinois and Florida, over the weekend

(March 28-29) and analyzed sales trends from our RestauranTrak

dataset (week ending March 21 + March 28).

For context, the RestauranTrak (powered by CLIP) dataset consists of over 10,000 transaction-level POS feeds from a

geographically balanced set of outlets. Predominantly consisting of independently owned concepts and small, often

unbranded groups, RestauranTrak can be seen as a robust measure to complement other credible industry sources that

are focused mainly on larger chains.

INTRODUCTION

Summar y

Nielsencga.com 31

• As bars and restaurants across the country close or significantly reduce their operations; those that

have remained trading have seen $ velocity fall by -73% to w/e March 21 (versus the average

week) and remained down at -77% w/e March 28.

• We can see a split in consumers drinking behavior during the impact of COVID-19. Half of US

consumers stated they are drinking the same amount of alcohol as usual. Interestingly, there

appears to be a fairly even divide of those drinking more (22%) and less (27%).

• Pre the COVID-19 Pandemic, take-out accounted for 11% of $ velocity in the US. As we enter full

lockdown, Take-out is now key to sales for outlets that are still operational, growing by +110% w/e

March 28 vs the norm.

• 66% say they have ordered a take out/delivery in the past 2 weeks

• Of those ordering take out/delivery, over 1 in 3 have been ordering food from venues they have

eaten or drank in before.

• 15% are ordering take out/delivery with alcoholic drinks, this behavior is more popular with younger

consumers; one in four 21-34 year olds have ordered alcoholic drinks with take out.

• Results show that products which are easy to transport and order, such as wine or imported/craft

beer, are those most frequently purchased

• The top factor influencing the choice to buy alcoholic drinks with take out/delivery relates to ease

and safety. 58% did so to avoid a trip to get food and drink at the grocery store/supermarket or

liquor store.


As bars and restaurants across the country close or significantly reduce their operations; those that have remained trading have seen $ velocity fall by

-73% to w/e March 21 (versus the average week) and remained down at -77% w/e March 28.

The decline in velocity is driven by a fall in both the number of checks and the average value of checks, with them halving in w/e March 28. This highlights

that even though some outlets have switched to take out only operation, survival will still be difficult if check values remain at this low level.

The drop in $ velocity over the last two weeks equates to a -$45k drop in value w/e March 21 and a further loss of -$48k w/e March 28 vs the average

week. The key questions here are how suppliers can support outlets that are still open and help them remain operational – furthermore, as alcohol

delivery laws are relaxed across a number of states, figuring out how to boost check value and alcohol sales could be critical.

TOTAL MARKET SALES


In Washington State, where we saw the first hits to velocity, it continues to plummet as we

move through March. $ velocity declined by -82% w/e March 21 and remained at this level into

the following week. The decline in velocity in outlets which are still trading can be attributed to

the reduction in number of checks by 2/3’s vs the average week. Average outlet velocity is

-$42k lower than the weekly norm in w/e March 28.

Before getting into delivery, let’s look at whether consumers are drinking more or less during the changes to

On Premise operations as a result of COVID-19.

During the last two weeks (to March 29), we can see a split in consumers drinking behavior during the impact

of COVID-19. Half of US consumers that have had a drink in the On Premise in the last 3 months, stated they

are drinking the same amount of alcohol as usual. Interestingly, there appears to be a fairly even divide of

those drinking more (22%) and less (27%). This reveals that there remains a large proportion of consumers

still actively drinking and carrying on with normal consumption levels despite the change in circumstances.

Younger consumers are the most likely to be drinking more during these uncertain times: 21% of 21-34 year

olds and 30% of 35-54 year olds, versus just 9% of those aged 55+.

WA S H I N G T O N

H A S D R I N K I N G B E H AV I O R C H A N G E D ?


Comprising 37,916 outlets in the On Premise universe, California makes up 12%

of dining and drinking outlets in the US. With such a significant proportion of

outlets, it is important to understand what is happening within the market.

As with NY and WA, $ velocity in trading outlets in California has fallen by -80%

vs the norm during the last two weeks of March. Both the number of checks

ordered and the average value of those checks have halved across the state.

Average outlet velocity is -$57k lower than the weekly norm in w/e March 28.

21% of consumers from California that drink out in the On Premise say they are

drinking more alcohol than usual and 53% are drinking the same amount.

C A L I F O R N I A


Accounting for 22,000 outlets in the US On Premise market, New York has a

significant On Premise market.

As lockdown started across New York state, outlets that are still operational

saw velocity drop by -85% w/e March 21 and stayed down into the following

week. Outlets in New York report only 36% of checks (vs the average week)

and a -57% decline in average check value w/e March 28. Average outlet

velocity was -$68k lower than the weekly norm across the same time period.

Similar to the average, 22% of consumers from New York that drink out in the

On Premise say they are drinking more alcohol than usual and 50% are

drinking the same amount.

N E W YO R K S TAT E


Illinois reports a similar story; $ velocity is -77% lower than the average week

to w/e/ March 21 and -80% w/e March 28. Both the number of orders/checks

and the value of a check have fallen by half across the state as take out at

present does not provide nearly the same revenue that was achieved in a

fully operational outlet. Average outlet velocity is -$63k lower than the weekly

norm in w/e March 28.

23% of consumers from Illinois are drinking more alcohol than usual and

49% are drinking the same amount. Illinois had the greatest percentage of

consumers saying they are drinking more than usual. This shows, positively,

that across all regions greater than 50% of consumers are retaining their

usual drinking behavior, even if they have to supplement where they would

usually purchase and consume it.

I L L I N O I S


F L O R I DA

In Florida, where we do not yet see a total closure of restaurants and bars, the

drop in capacity coupled with changing consumer behaviors has still resulted in

large $ velocity declines. However, declines in this state are slightly behind that of

the states hit hardest by the virus, with velocity down -60% w/e March 21 and it

declined further to -76% in w/e/ March 28. Average outlet velocity is -$56k lower

than the weekly norm in w/e March 28.

Similar to the average, 21% of consumers from Florida that drink out in the On

Premise say they are drinking more alcohol than usual and 53% are drinking the

same amount.


TA K E O U T B E H AV I O R

This research seeks to focus on delivery/take out. 66% say they have ordered a take

out/delivery in the past 2 weeks and from these consumers we will look at specific

delivery behavior and attitudes, as well as what drives consumers to order alcohol

with a take out.

Pre the COVID-19 Pandemic take-out accounted for 11% of $ velocity in the US. As

we enter full lockdown, Take-out is now key to sales for outlets that are still

operational, growing by +110% w/e March 28 vs the norm.

In Florida & Illinois, where take-out proportion is slightly lower than the US average at

10%, growth of +111% and +112% respectively has been reported. However, it is key

to note that even with this growth in take-out, this still only equates to 24% and 20%

of normal weekly velocity in both states respectively.

Take out represented a lower proportion of velocity in California at the start of 2020

but it has grown in line with the wider US trend at +109%, equating to sales that are

20% normal weekly trading.

In New York State where take-out accounts for 13% of velocity, take out $ velocity

has grown by a lower rate of +31% and therefore only represents 16% of normal

weekly $ velocity.


TA K E O U T B E H AV I O R

Of those ordering take out/delivery, over 1 in 3 have been ordering food from

venues they have eaten or drank in before as a result of COVID-19, showing a

loyal group trying to support businesses they know and love. Consistent across

the 4 states, this highlights the importance of creating a good impression on

consumers and establishing returning visitation. This is exceptionally high for

consumers aged 55+ (48%), implying older consumers have the greatest

inclination and/or means to support their favored establishments.

In contrast, 12% of US consumers have ordered from places they haven’t tried

or visited before, showing opportunity to win over new customers, who if you

impress now, may continue visiting when normal service resumes.

C O N T I N U E D

In terms of alcoholic beverages, 15% of consumers are buying drinks from the supermarket/grocery store to have with their take-out, this behavior is more

popular with younger consumers (18%). Equally, 15% are ordering take out/delivery with alcoholic drinks; this is particularly popular in California (18%) while

slightly less popular in Illinois (13%). New York and Florida remain closer to the average at (14%) and (16%) respectively. Once again this behavior is more

popular with younger consumers; one in four 21-34 year olds have ordered alcoholic drinks with take out. This particularly high proportion of young consumers

outlines them as a key demographic to target alcohol delivery with food.


O R D E R I N G A L C O H O L I C D R I N K S W I T H D E L I V E R Y

The top factor influencing the choice to buy alcoholic drinks with take out/delivery relates to ease

and safety. 58% did so to avoid a trip to get food and drink at the grocery store/supermarket or

liquor store.

31% of those who ordered alcohol with take out/delivery wanted to order a drink specific to a venue

which shows the benefits of a unique selling proposition. Customers will be encouraged to order

from somewhere which offers something unique or will have to order from your venue if you are the

only one offering something they have grown fond of.

While 24% overall said they ordered due to bundles of drinks on offer, only 13% in New York said

they have ordered for this reason. Proving more popular in other states, New York venues could

potentially do more bundle offerings to capitalize on sales.

Promisingly, 61% expect to pay more for an alcoholic drinks when ordering take out/delivery than

they would in a grocery store/supermarket, and perhaps surprisingly 57% said they would expect to

pay more than when in a restaurant/bar. This highlights the significant opportunity to balance

revenue losses through strong alcohol take out/delivery option during outlet closures.


Over three in five of those that drink alcoholic beverages are consuming the same

type of drink at home that they drink in bars and restaurants usually. Furthermore,

59% are drinking the same alcoholic drink brands at home that they typically would in

bars and restaurants. This shows that if the offering of your product is available,

many of your consumers will continue to purchase it.

In terms of replacing their visits to bars and restaurants, 49% are replacing typical

visits to bars and restaurants where they would usually have an alcoholic drink, with

drinks they bought from stores and 46% are ordering take out/delivery in place of

when they would usually visit bars or restaurants for a meal. This means almost half

of consumers are substituting On Premise visits with consumption in the home. The

young consumer remains a key target for delivery, as 58% 21-34 year olds are

substituting drinking occasions for drinks bought in stores and 61% are ordering take

out when they would usually visit venues for a meal. This reveals they are more likely

to be using these alternatives, rather than just going without.

O R D E R I N G A L C O H O L I C D R I N K S W I T H D E L I V E R Y C O N T I N U E D


M E T H O D O LO GY

Analysis of RestauranTrak demonstrates that current (week ending March 21+29) On-

Premise performance is two Standard Errors away from normal market variation. We

can therefore infer that as one of the main variables that cannot be controlled for is

COVID-19, and it is this that is driving market performance.

Market baseline data is utilized to understand variation from the norm, baseline week is

calculated on the time period between September 1 2019 & February 29 2020.

RestauranTrak: Powdered by CHECK-LEVEL INSIGHTS POOL

NCGA have surveyed 1600 LDA On-Premise consumers across four key states (Illinois,

NY, Florida, California).

400 respondents were collected from each state, with each nationally representative on

age and gender. For the Total US stats an average of the four states has been used.

Fieldwork was 03/27/20 to 03/29/20.

CONSUMER

brewers association power hour covid-19 · 4/3/2019 · covid-19 on premise impact report issue #2...

Documents