brain in future

7/28/2019 BRAIN IN FUTURE

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Eric Hand March19.3m, 2010

- Brains: a few key facts & concepts

- How facts & ideas about the brain

may predict the Singularity

- Project Blue Brain: Supporting evidence

& milestone for the Singularity?


2/25

Fun facts (er, plausible guesses) about the brain

- Computational capacity: Kurzweil guessesabout 20 petaflops (20 X 1015 operations / second).

IBM has said they will have a computer of about that

power operational in 2012.

- Number of neurons ~= 100 billion

- Total length of neural fibers ~= 1 million km.

- Connections among these = at least trillions


3/25

Brain Development

The human genome has only 30 - 100 million bytes of info,

in compressed form, less than some existing computer

programs,

but gives rise to an adult brain that would need at least

terabytes or petabytes to fully describe.


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Mathematical metaphors are the Mandelbrot set,and cellular automata, as demonstrated by Stephen Wolfram.

This is because brain development happens by a

probabilistic fractal process.

A few simple rules for cell division, migration, andconnection act huge numbers of times, with some

randomness each time.


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http://www.miqel.com/images_1/miqel_data/fractal_images/cool_organix4_whoa.jpg

QuickTime and a

decompressorare needed to see this picture.

Example of a Mandelbrot set
http://www.miqel.com/images_1/miqel_data/fractal_images/cool_organix4_whoa.jpghttp://www.miqel.com/images_1/miqel_data/fractal_images/cool_organix4_whoa.jpg


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Neurons showing similar branching patterns

QuickTime and a

decompressorare needed to s ee this picture.


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QuickTime and a



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The neocortex is arranged into 6 distinct cell layers

QuickTime and a



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Main computational units in the neocortex:

millions of neocortical columns,

cylindrical volumes 0.5 mm wide by 2 mm high,

each containing about 10,000 neurons

connected in an intricate way.


10/25Representation of a mammalian neocortical column

QuickTime and adecompressor

are needed to s ee this picture.

Representation

of a

mammalian

neocortical

column


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Until the last 10-20 years, predictions

about AI and robots surpassing

general human intelligence (strong

AI) had been repeatedly over-

optimistic.


12/25

E.g.: In 1977, Marvin Minsky,A founding father of modern AI,said that general artificial intelligenceat or above human level (aka strong AI)would be achieved within a generation.


13/25

Ray Kurzweil, in his 2001 essay

"The Law of Accelerating Returns",extends Moore's Law to describe an

exponential growth of technological progress

in general.

He gives numerous graphs to support his

claims.

E.g:


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Cost o fcalculations /sec

from 1900 - 2002

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/comm


are neede d to see this picture.
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/c/c5/PPTMooresLawai.jpghttp://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/c/c5/PPTMooresLawai.jpg


15/25

He expects these trends to continue for decades.

Why?

- Progress in more technologies is becoming

driven by advances in IT

- There is accelerating synergistic feedbackamong the rapidly growing fields of

Genetics, Nanotech, and Robotics


16/25

He predicts that this will lead tosuperhuman general intelligence

by about 2029.

He defines this as it the ability to

pass the Turing Test.


17/25


are neede d to see this picture.

Extrapolating Growth of Computing to Strong AI


18/25

"The Singularity" is a phrase borrowed fromthe astrophysics of black holes.

As used by Vernor Vinge and RaymondKurzweil, it refers to the idea that acceleratingtechnology will lead to artificial intelligence that

will exceed human intelligence aboutthe year 2030.

As superhuman AI permeates civilization byabout 2045, The results on the other side ofthe "event horizon" will become unpredictable.


19/25

Singularity video

The Singularity By Ray Kurzweil at the TED

conf. 2009 (23:41)brain info starts at about 17 min.

http://sciencestage.com/v/562/ray-kurzweil-.html

P j t Bl B i
http://sciencestage.com/v/562/ray-kurzweil-.htmlhttp://sciencestage.com/v/562/ray-kurzweil-.htmlhttp://sciencestage.com/v/562/ray-kurzweil-.htmlhttp://sciencestage.com/v/562/ray-kurzweil-.htmlhttp://sciencestage.com/v/562/ray-kurzweil-.htmlhttp://sciencestage.com/v/562/ray-kurzweil-.html


20/25

Project Blue Brain

IBM is now in the second year of a ten year collaboration

with a Swiss University to simulate the computational

functionalities of the human neocortex.

They claim to have simulated a mouse neocortial column.

To the extent this is accurate, it is huge progress,And tends to support Kurzweil's schedule for the arrival of

strong AI and the Singularity.

Remember Kurzweil's Law of Accelerating returns.Halfway thru the Human Genome Project, only ~1% of the

Genome had been decoded, and many called that a failure.


21/25

IBM says they are doing project Blue Brain to advance treatment

of brain disorders, including senility.

But they surely appreciate the possibility of huge military AI

contracts, as increasing aversion to casualties in Western

countries has led to the a strategy of "Our technology against

their sons."

E.g.:Robart 3 The warfighters associate

http://www.spawar.navy.mil/robots/movies/RobartIII-

TheWarfightersAssociate.wmv
http://www.spawar.navy.mil/robots/movies/RobartIII-TheWarfightersAssociate.wmvhttp://www.spawar.navy.mil/robots/movies/RobartIII-TheWarfightersAssociate.wmvhttp://www.spawar.navy.mil/robots/movies/RobartIII-TheWarfightersAssociate.wmvhttp://www.spawar.navy.mil/robots/movies/RobartIII-TheWarfightersAssociate.wmvhttp://www.spawar.navy.mil/robots/movies/RobartIII-TheWarfightersAssociate.wmvhttp://www.spawar.navy.mil/robots/movies/RobartIII-TheWarfightersAssociate.wmvhttp://www.spawar.navy.mil/robots/movies/RobartIII-TheWarfightersAssociate.wmv


22/25

Project Blue Brain videos

The Brain According to Henry Markram - video/http://singularityhub.com/2009/11/13/the-brain-according-to-henry-markram-video/

Bluebrain | Year One video documentaryhttp://singularityhub.com/2010/02/12/10-year-documentary-to-follow-bluebrain-project-video/
http://singularityhub.com/2009/11/13/the-brain-according-to-henry-markram-video/http://singularityhub.com/2010/02/12/10-year-documentary-%0Dto-follow-bluebrain-project-video/http://singularityhub.com/2010/02/12/10-year-documentary-%0Dto-follow-bluebrain-project-video/http://singularityhub.com/2010/02/12/10-year-documentary-%0Dto-follow-bluebrain-project-video/http://singularityhub.com/2010/02/12/10-year-documentary-%0Dto-follow-bluebrain-project-video/http://singularityhub.com/2010/02/12/10-year-documentary-%0Dto-follow-bluebrain-project-video/http://singularityhub.com/2010/02/12/10-year-documentary-%0Dto-follow-bluebrain-project-video/http://singularityhub.com/2010/02/12/10-year-documentary-%0Dto-follow-bluebrain-project-video/http://singularityhub.com/2010/02/12/10-year-documentary-%0Dto-follow-bluebrain-project-video/http://singularityhub.com/2010/02/12/10-year-documentary-%0Dto-follow-bluebrain-project-video/http://singularityhub.com/2010/02/12/10-year-documentary-%0Dto-follow-bluebrain-project-video/http://singularityhub.com/2010/02/12/10-year-documentary-%0Dto-follow-bluebrain-project-video/http://singularityhub.com/2010/02/12/10-year-documentary-%0Dto-follow-bluebrain-project-video/http://singularityhub.com/2010/02/12/10-year-documentary-%0Dto-follow-bluebrain-project-video/http://singularityhub.com/2010/02/12/10-year-documentary-%0Dto-follow-bluebrain-project-video/http://singularityhub.com/2010/02/12/10-year-documentary-%0Dto-follow-bluebrain-project-video/http://singularityhub.com/2010/02/12/10-year-documentary-%0Dto-follow-bluebrain-project-video/http://singularityhub.com/2010/02/12/10-year-documentary-%0Dto-follow-bluebrain-project-video/http://singularityhub.com/2010/02/12/10-year-documentary-%0Dto-follow-bluebrain-project-video/http://singularityhub.com/2009/11/13/the-brain-according-to-henry-markram-video/http://singularityhub.com/2009/11/13/the-brain-according-to-henry-markram-video/http://singularityhub.com/2009/11/13/the-brain-according-to-henry-markram-video/http://singularityhub.com/2009/11/13/the-brain-according-to-henry-markram-video/http://singularityhub.com/2009/11/13/the-brain-according-to-henry-markram-video/http://singularityhub.com/2009/11/13/the-brain-according-to-henry-markram-video/http://singularityhub.com/2009/11/13/the-brain-according-to-henry-markram-video/http://singularityhub.com/2009/11/13/the-brain-according-to-henry-markram-video/http://singularityhub.com/2009/11/13/the-brain-according-to-henry-markram-video/http://singularityhub.com/2009/11/13/the-brain-according-to-henry-markram-video/http://singularityhub.com/2009/11/13/the-brain-according-to-henry-markram-video/http://singularityhub.com/2009/11/13/the-brain-according-to-henry-markram-video/http://singularityhub.com/2009/11/13/the-brain-according-to-henry-markram-video/http://singularityhub.com/2009/11/13/the-brain-according-to-henry-markram-video/


23/25

I have not found recent technical info on Blue Brain,

possibly because they don't want to give away

anything useful to potential competitors.


24/25

More ResourcesRay Kurzweil's AI/Singularity website:

http://www.kurzweilai.net/index.html?flash=1

Why We Can Be Confident of Turing Test Capability

Within a Quarter By Ray Kurzweil

The advent of strong AI (exceeding human intelligence)

is the most important transformation this century will see,

and it will happen within 25 years, says Ray Kurzweil,

who presented this paper at

The Dartmouth Artificial Intelligence Conference:

The next 50 years (AI@50) on July 14, 2006

http://www.kurzweilai.net/meme/frame.html?m=1

The Singularity Is Near (2005)

- The current "bible" of technology futurics
http://www.kurzweilai.net/index.html?flash=1http://www.kurzweilai.net/meme/frame.html?m=1http://www.kurzweilai.net/meme/frame.html?m=1http://www.kurzweilai.net/index.html?flash=1


25/25

The Singularity Hubhttp://singularityhub.com/

Blue Brain Project homepagehttp://bluebrain.epfl.ch/page18699.html

Working Brain Model - MIT Techology Review

http://www.technologyreview.com/biomedicine/19767/

Books by Marvin MinskyThe Society of Mind (1988)

The Emotion Machine (2007)

Finite and Infinite Machines (1967)

Perceptrons - Expanded Edition(1987)http://www.amazon.com/Marvin-

Minsky/e/B000APALSQ/ref=ntt_athr_dp_pel_pop_1
http://singularityhub.com/http://bluebrain.epfl.ch/page18699.htmlhttp://bluebrain.epfl.ch/page18699.htmlhttp://singularityhub.com/

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