BRACKETOLOGY CONTENDERS AND PRETENDERS Since 1970, five teams have finished the regular season undefeated. Only one team, Bobby Knights 1976 Indiana Hoosiers, went on to win the NCAA tournament. The vast majority of futures wagers were placed on these s eemingly invincible teams. Its a risky wager to predict the eventual national champion considering the unpredictable nature of the tourney so its difficult to find value in betting on the favorites. Public perception on overvaluing win-loss records, seeding, and program prestige badly inflate the odds. Heres a quick rundown on which teams offer value based on their current odds: The Favorites Duke: opened at 4-1, currently 3-1 Ohio State: opened at 18-1, currently 4-1 Kansas: opened at 12-1, currently 6-1 Those fortunate enough to invest preseason in the Buckeyes have to b e feeling good about their horse. The rest of us are should lay off considering there are eight, possibly nine teams that could win it all this year. Theres simply no value in taking a team at less than 10-1 odds unless they are head and shoulders above the rest ofthe field. Duke, OSU, and Kansas are all name brand teams enjoying successful seasons, but they arent undefeated powerhouses incapable of falling early. Tier Two Pittsburgh: opened at 18-1, currently 12-1 Texas: opened at 30-1, currently 12-1 Villanova: opened at 20-1, currently 25-1 Pittsburghs going to be a popular bet here because theyre such a balanced, disciplined team on both sides of the ball. T hey lack a go-to player in crunch time, something that hasnt stopped them from dominating the Big East this season. Itmight catch up to them in the tournament but head coach Jamie Dixon is such a detail oriented coach who knows how to prepare his team and this could very well be the year Pitt finally breaks through. Villanova is similar to Pittsburgh in that theyre a guard oriented team, the one advantage they have is that they have two proven go-to scores, Corey Fisher and Corey Stokes. Still, they were swept by a more experienced and unselfish Pittsburgh team. The biggest red flag is that th e Wildcats finished the season o n an ugly six game losing streak, most notably a first round loss to USF. Theyll tumble and get a much higher seed than they anticipated in January when Jay Wrights team was in the thick of the B ig East championship race.
