Queensland Government Statistician’s Office

http://www.qgso.qld.gov.au http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0

© The State of Queensland (Queensland Treasury) 2016

Bowen Basin population report, 2016 Introduction The Bowen Basin population report, 2016 provides estimates of the non-resident populations of local government areas (LGAs) and select localities in the Bowen Basin during the last week of June 2016, based on surveys conducted by Queensland Government Statistician’s Office (QGSO). Information regarding the supply and take-up of commercial accommodation by non-resident workers is also summarised.

The non-resident population represents the number of fly-in/fly-out and drive-in/drive-out (FIFO/DIDO) workers who were on-shift in the region at the time of collection. This group includes those involved in the production, construction, and maintenance of mining and gas industry operations, projects and resource-related infrastructure.

Non-resident workers are not included in estimated resident population (ERP) data released annually by the Australian Bureau of Statistics. As a result, the full–time equivalent (FTE) population estimates presented in this report, which combine the resident and non-resident populations, provide a more complete indicator of total demand for certain services than either measure used alone.

1

Key findings

Key findings of this report include:

The non-resident population of the Bowen Basin was estimated at 13,560 persons at the end of June 2016, around 2,110 persons or 13% lower than in June 2015.

Although mine closures and some workforce restructuring occurred in 2015–16, the decline in the Bowen Basin's non-resident population during the year was largely due to finalisation of construction for new projects and completion of mine upgrades.

Isaac (R) had the largest non-resident population of all LGAs in the Bowen Basin in June 2016 (9,445 persons, representing 70% of the regional total). The remainder was located in Central Highlands (R) (3,150 persons), Banana (S) (665 persons) and Whitsunday (R) (Bowen only) (300 persons).

The non-resident population of Isaac (R) fell by 955 persons or 9% in 2015–16. Numbers were also lower in Central Highlands (R) (–810 persons), Banana (S) (–215 persons) and Whitsunday (R) (Bowen only) (–130 persons).

Four urban centres and localities (UCLs) in the region had non-resident populations of 1,000 or more in June 2016—Dysart (1,765 persons), Moranbah (1,600 persons), Middlemount (1,325 persons) and Blackwater (1,300 persons).

The Bowen Basin had an estimated FTE population of 99,250 persons in June 2016, comprising 85,690 residents and 13,560 non–resident workers on-shift. Non-resident workers on-shift made up 14% of the FTE population.

Worker accommodation villages (WAVs) across the Bowen Basin housed around 12,800 non–resident workers on-shift (or 94% of total) in June 2016. The balance of 760 workers was housed in hotels/motels and caravan parks.

50 WAVs were operating in the region in June 2016, a net loss of four WAVs from June 2015. Total capacity of Bowen Basin WAVs in June 2016 was 26,705 beds, a small decrease of 235 beds or 1% from June 2015.

The proportion of hotel/motel rooms in the Bowen Basin that was vacant and available increased slightly, from 63% in June 2015 to 69% in June 2016.

1 Whitsunday (R) (Bowen only) comprises the statistical areas level 2 (SA2s) of Bowen and Collinsville, which cover the area of former Bowen Shire.

The Bowen Basin – at a glance

The Bowen Basin (Figure 1) is Queensland’s most important source of export coal. The region comprises the local government areas (LGAs) of Banana (S), Central Highlands (R), Isaac (R) and Whitsunday (R) (Bowen only)

1.

Population at June 2016:

Non–resident population……..…………13,560

Resident population……………………. 85,690

Full–time equivalent population............ 99,250

Figure 1 Bowen Basin region

Queensland Government Statistician’s Office

Bowen Basin population report, 2016 2

Bowen Basin update, 2015–16

The Bowen Basin in Central Queensland contains most of the state’s high quality metallurgical (coking and pulverised coal injection) coal reserves, as well as significant deposits of thermal coal. At June 2016, there were 41 active coal mining operations in the region, along with two metalliferous mines (DNRM, 2016a).

Two coal mines commenced commercial production in the Bowen Basin during 2015–16. Anglo American's Grosvenor mine, which had been under construction since 2012, was effectively completed with the commissioning of its longwall operation in early 2016. Grosvenor produced its first commercial coal in May 2016, seven months ahead of schedule and more than US$100 million below budget (Anglo American, 2016). The Isaac Plains mine, which had been in care and maintenance in 2014, was acquired by Stanmore Coal in July 2015 and recommenced operations, with first coal produced in April 2016 (Stanmore Coal, 2016).

Two coal mines in the Bowen Basin ceased operations during 2015–16. The Crinum underground coal mine near Emerald reached the end of its economic life, and was placed under care and maintenance in the first quarter of 2016 (BHP Billiton, 2016a). Cockatoo Coal's Baralaba mining operations in Banana Shire were also placed under care and maintenance in February 2016, after the company and its subsidiaries entered voluntary administration in late 2015 (Cockatoo Coal Limited, 2016).

During the year to June 2016, Glencore temporarily reduced production and workforce numbers at its Collinsville coal mine in order to address losses caused by lower coal prices and market oversupply (ABC News, 2015). The company has since announced its intention to return to full production (Glencore, 2016).

Project construction activity slowed markedly across the region in 2015–16, due largely to completion of the Grosvenor project. Construction was suspended on the Eagle Downs Coal underground mine project and the site placed under care and maintenance, following an announcement in September 2015 that the project’s major contractor had appointed voluntary administrators (Australia’s Mining Monthly, 2015; DNRM, 2016a).

Interim estimates show that exports of coal from Bowen Basin mines for the year ending 30 June 2016 reached an all-time high of around 221.7 million tonnes (Mt), an increase of around 2.2 Mt from the preceding year (DTMR, 2016). Much of this increase was from metallurgical coal, with BHP Billiton reporting record metallurgical coal production of 43Mt from its Bowen Basin mines in the year to June 2016 (BHP Billiton, 2016b).

In total, some 28,180 mining employees and contractors were employed in construction, production and routine maintenance of Bowen Basin mining operations and projects in June 2016, around 2,410 fewer than in June 2015 (DNRM, 2016b). Lower workforce numbers in 2016 reflect the completion of the construction phase for Grosvenor mine and suspension of work on the Eagle Downs project, while mine closures and ongoing workforce restructuring were also contributing factors. Completion of operational upgrades at various mines (CQ News, 2015; Walz Group, 2016) and maintenance activities such as longwall moves and plant shut downs (BHP Billiton, 2015) also contributed to fluctuations in workforce numbers between years.

Non-resident population

The non-resident population of the Bowen Basin was estimated at 13,560 at the end of June 2016, around 2,110 persons or 13% fewer than in June 2015 (Table 1).

Around seven in ten non–resident workers on-shift in the region (9,445 persons or 70% of total) were counted in the LGA of Isaac (R), with the remainder located in Central Highlands (R) (3,150 persons), Banana (S) (665 persons) and Whitsunday (R) (Bowen only) (300 persons).

All LGAs recorded decreases in their non-resident populations during the year to June 2016. The non-resident population of Isaac (R) fell by 955 persons (or –9%), influenced largely by the completion of construction at Grosvenor mine and suspension of construction at Eagle Downs mine. Plant maintenance shutdowns that were under way in June 2016 also contributed to a temporary downturn in numbers for Isaac (R).

Central Highlands (R) recorded a notable decrease in its non-resident population (–810 persons or –20%) from the preceding year. Much of this change was due to completion of upgrades to mine infrastructure and major maintenance events that temporarily boosted numbers of non-resident workers in the preceding year. Closure of the Baralaba mine and completion of rail upgrades contributed to a downturn in the non-resident population of Banana (S) (–215 persons or –25%), while numbers also fell in Whitsunday (R) (Bowen only) (–130 persons or –30%) in line with reductions in coal production.

Non-resident population

The non-resident population is the number of fly-in/fly-out or drive-in/drive-out (FIFO/DIDO) workers who are living in the area of their workplace at a given point in time, but who have their usual place of residence elsewhere.

Due to shift arrangements, not all members of the non-resident workforce are present in the local area at one time. For that reason, the non-resident population refers to the number of non–resident workers on-shift at a given point in time, rather than the total non-resident workforce.

Queensland Government Statistician’s Office

Bowen Basin population report, 2016 3

Table 1 Non-resident populations, Bowen Basin LGAs, June

LGA

2015 2016 Change, 2015 to 2016

— persons — persons %

Banana (S) 880 665 –215 –25

Central Highlands (R) 3,955 3,150 –810 –20

Isaac (R) 10,400 9,445 –955 –9

Whitsunday (R) (Bowen only) 430 300 –130 –30

BOWEN BASIN TOTAL 15,665 13,560 –2,110 –13

Figures in tables have been rounded to the nearest five; see Notes at end of report for details.

Source: QGSO estimates

Time series data show that the non-resident population of the Bowen Basin increased overall by 2,795 persons from 2006 to 2016 (Figure 2). Most of this increase occurred in Isaac (R) (2,370 persons) and Central Highlands (R) (835 persons), while Banana (S) recorded an overall loss of 490 persons and Whitsunday (R) (Bowen only) remained relatively constant.

The trends shown in Figure 2 reflect the significant expansion of resource industry investment that occurred across the Bowen Basin during the past decade. During this period, and particularly between 2011 and 2013, the non-resident populations of most LGAs in the region were boosted substantially by the presence of large construction workforces. These workers were engaged in building new coal mines, mine expansions and related infrastructure projects, as well as construction of coal seam gas (CSG) surface installations, pipelines and gas wells.

Although the region's non-resident population in 2016 was 11,475 persons lower than the peak of 25,035 persons reached in 2012, much of this apparent decline was due to finalisation of construction for new projects and operational expansions. The subsequent departure of temporary FIFO/DIDO construction workforces from the region, and the downward influence that this had on the non-resident population, was widely anticipated (QGSO, 2016) and consistent with the transition of the resources boom from the investment phase to the production phase (BREE, 2013).

With the completion or suspension of most major project construction activity during the preceding year, the Bowen Basin's non-resident population at the end of June 2016 largely comprised FIFO/DIDO workers engaged in production and maintenance activities for active resource operations.

Figure 2 Non-resident populations, Bowen Basin LGAs, June

Source: QGSO estimates

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Pers

ons

Banana (S) Central Highlands (R) Isaac (R) Whitsunday (R) (Bowen only)

Queensland Government Statistician’s Office

Bowen Basin population report, 2016 4

Figure 3 Bowen Basin LGAs and selected UCLs

Source: QGSO 2016

Queensland Government Statistician’s Office

Bowen Basin population report, 2016 5

FTE population estimates

In June 2016, the Bowen Basin had an estimated FTE population of 99,250 persons, comprising 85,690 residents and 13,560 non–resident workers on-shift (Table 2). Non–resident workers on-shift made up 14% of the region’s FTE population.

At the LGA level, Central Highlands (R) had the largest FTE population (35,185 persons), with non–resident workers on-shift accounting for close to one in ten people (3,150 persons or 9% of the total FTE). Isaac (R) also had an FTE population approaching that of Central Highlands (R) (34,240 persons), but with a larger number of non–resident workers on-shift contributing a greater proportion of the population (9,445 persons or 28% of the total FTE).

Four urban centres and localities (UCLs) had non-resident populations of 1,000 or more in June 2016—Dysart (1,765 persons), Moranbah (1,600 persons), Middlemount (1,325 persons) and Blackwater (1,300 persons). Isaac (R) also recorded a particularly large number of non–resident workers on-shift living in rural areas (3,990 persons), reflecting the location of several large WAV establishments outside of town centres.

Table 2 FTE population estimates, Bowen Basin LGAs and selected UCLs, June 2016

LGA Location(a)

UCL

Resident population

(b)

Non-resident population

FTE population

— persons —

Banana (S) In town Biloela 6,195 50 6,250

Moura 2,075 225 2,295

Other towns(c)

1,585 0 1,585

Rural areas 5,370 390 5,760

Banana (S) total 15,225 665 15,890

Central Highlands (R) In town Blackwater 5,180 1,300 6,480

Bluff 380 185 565

Capella 955 25 980

Emerald 15,150 95 15,245

Tieri 1,740 710 2,455

Other towns(c)

2,570 15 2,585

Rural areas 6,060 815 6,875

Central Highlands (R) total 32,040 3,150 35,185

Isaac (R) In town Dysart 3,060 1,765 4,825

Glenden 1,465 435 1,900

Middlemount 2,120 1,325 3,450

Moranbah 9,855 1,600 11,455

Nebo 465 325 785

Other towns(c)

2,505 5 2,510

Rural areas 5,330 3,990 9,320

Isaac (R) total 24,795 9,445 34,240

Whitsunday (R) (Bowen only) In town Collinsville 1,530 200 1,730

Other towns(c)

9,975 0 9,975

Rural areas 2,125 100 2,225

Whitsunday (R) (Bowen only) total 13,635 300 13,935

BOWEN BASIN TOTAL 85,690 13,560 99,250

(a) Refer to Notes at end of report for explanation of ‘in town’ and ‘rural areas’.

(b) QGSO unpublished data.

(c) UCLs with only one accommodation provider or fewer than 20 non-resident workers are aggregated in ‘Other towns’.

Source: QGSO estimates

Full–time equivalent population

The FTE population measure is the sum of the resident population (people who live in the area permanently) and the non-resident population (i.e. the number of non–resident workers on-shift).

The FTE population measure provides a more complete estimate of total demand for certain services and infrastructure in regions with a high incidence of FIFO/DIDO workers.

Queensland Government Statistician’s Office

Bowen Basin population report, 2016 6

Non–resident worker accommodation

WAVs remain the predominant type of accommodation utilised by non-resident workers while on-shift in the Bowen Basin, housing 12,800 workers (or 94% of the total) in June 2016 (Table 3). Other types of accommodation, including hotels/motels and caravan parks, accounted for the remainder (760 persons or 6%).

The fall in the region's non-resident population during the year to June 2016 resulted in reduced demand for all types of accommodation. The number of non-resident workers staying in WAVs fell by 2,140 persons or 14% from the preceding year, while occupancy of other accommodation increased by 35 persons.

Occupancy of WAVs by non-resident workers declined most in Isaac (R) (–1,190 persons) and Central Highlands (R) (–685 persons). Most of these changes were attributable to reduced numbers of FIFO/DIDO construction and maintenance workers. The number of non-resident workers staying in other accommodation increased notably in Isaac (R) (235 persons), but decreased by 125 persons in Central Highlands (R) and 75 persons in Banana (S).

Table 3 Non-resident populations by accommodation type, Bowen Basin LGAs, June

LGA

WAVs Other(a)

Total WAVs Other(a)

Total

2016 Change, 2015–16

— persons —

Banana (S) 595 70 665 –140 –75 –215

Central Highlands (R) 2,990 155 3,150 –685 –125 –810

Isaac (R) 8,960 485 9,445 –1,190 235 –955

Whitsunday (R) (Bowen only) 250 50 300 –130 0 –130

BOWEN BASIN TOTAL 12,800 760 13,560 –2,140 35 –2,110

(a) ‘Other’ includes hotels/motels, caravan parks and other accommodation. Refer to Notes at end of report for additional informat ion.

Source: QGSO estimates

There were 50 WAVs operating in the Bowen Basin in June 2016, a net decrease of four establishments from June 2015. The total capacity of Bowen Basin WAVs in June 2016 was estimated at 26,705 beds, down by 235 beds or 1% from the previous year and down from peak capacity of 32,495 beds in 2013 (Figure 4). The largest loss of capacity in 2015–16 occurred in Isaac (R) (–515 beds), with Banana (S) also recording a decrease (–190 beds). Contrary to this trend, Central Highlands (R) recorded an increase in bed capacity (470 beds), with one new WAV and expansions at other establishments compensating for two WAV closures.

Figure 4 WAV bed capacity, Bowen Basin LGAs, June

Source: QGSO estimates

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

WA

V b

eds

Banana (S) Central Highlands (R) Isaac (R) Whitsunday (R) (Bowen only)

Worker accommodation villages (WAVs)

WAVs are commonly used to house unaccompanied non-resident workers. WAVs typically consist of demountable dwellings arranged in a village, with common dining, laundry and recreational facilities.

Queensland Government Statistician’s Office

Bowen Basin population report, 2016 7

Around 69% of hotel/motel rooms in the Bowen Basin were vacant and available in June 2016, a slightly higher proportion than in June 2015 (63%) and June 2014 (65%).

Between June 2015 and June 2016, the proportion of rooms that were vacant and available increased in Banana (S) (from 50% to 63%) and Central Highlands (R) (from 63% to 72%), but remained unchanged in Isaac (R) and Whitsunday (R) (Bowen only) (at 72% and 57% respectively).

Table 4 Vacant and available hotel/motel rooms, Bowen Basin LGAs, June

LGA

Occupied by non-resident

workers Vacant and available

(a) Balance

(a)

Total hotel/motel

rooms(a)

Vacant and available hotel/motel rooms

2016 2014 2015 2016

— rooms — — % —

Banana (S) 40 255 110 405 55 50 63

Central Highlands (R) 135 985 250 1,365 67 63 72

Isaac (R) 80 490 110 675 70 72 72

Whitsunday (R) (Bowen only) 50 215 110 375 60 57 57

BOWEN BASIN TOTAL 300 1,940 580 2,825 65 63 69

(a) Refer to Notes at end of report for additional information on hotels/motels and explanation of ‘vacant and available’ and ‘balance’.

Source: QGSO estimates

Queensland Government Statistician’s Office

Bowen Basin population report, 2016 8

Notes

(R) – Regional Council (S) – Shire UCL – Urban Centre/Locality

Data in this report are derived from surveys conducted by QGSO in 2016 and other sources. The Survey of Accommodation Providers counted non-resident workers staying in worker accommodation villages (WAVs), hotels, motels, caravan parks and other commercial accommodation on a medium to long-term basis during the last week of June 2016. Short-term and overnight visitors are not regarded as non-resident workers. The Resource Operations Employment Survey collected workforce information from all resource companies with existing operations and projects in the Bowen Basin as at June 2016.

Non-resident workers are people who fly-in/fly-out or drive-in/drive-out (FIFO/DIDO) to work and live in the area temporarily while rostered on, and who have their usual place of residence elsewhere. Non-resident workers include FIFO/DIDO mining and gas industry employees and contractors, construction workers and associated sub-contractors. Figures in this report refer to the number of non–resident workers on-shift, or present in the area at a given point in time, and should not be confused with total non–resident workforce numbers.

Non-resident population data presented in this report are a point in time measure, based on best information available at the time of survey. Non–resident worker numbers may vary in response to changing production demands, prevailing weather and industrial disputes. At the time of the 2016 survey, the number of non–resident workers on-shift in the Bowen Basin was unaffected by adverse weather events or industrial actions.

Resident population estimates for 2016 are QGSO estimates.

‘In town’ includes populations counted in defined urban centres and localities (UCLs), as well as non–resident workers housed within 5km of town. ‘Rural areas’ include populations outside of defined UCLs, including non-resident workers more than 5km from town.

Hotels/motels include serviced apartments, and caravan parks include other rental accommodation occupied by non-resident workers.

‘Vacant and available’ refers to hotel/motel rooms that were not occupied by non–resident workers or other guests, and were vacant and available on the night of the survey. ‘Balance’ includes hotel/motel rooms occupied by short-term visitors, held for non-resident workers under permanent booking arrangements but not actually occupied on the night of the survey, or otherwise unavailable to prospective guests.

Figures in tables have been rounded to the nearest five. As a result of rounding, discrepancies may occur between sums of the component items and totals. Percentages and other calculations are made prior to rounding of figures and discrepancies might therefore exist between these calculations and those that could be derived from the rounded figures.

References

ABC News (2015) Glencore cuts 180 jobs at Collinsville coal mine in north Queensland, 7 December 2015

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-12-07/glencore-cuts-180-jobs-collinsville-coal-mine-north-queensland/7007768

Anglo American (2016) Anglo American delivers first metallurgical coal from Grosvenor project, 13 May 2016 http://australia.angloamerican.com/media/press-releases/pr-2016/160513

Australia’s Mining Monthly (2015) WDS goes into receivership over Eagle Downs, 4 September 2015

http://www.miningmonthly.com/coal/markets/wds-goes-into-receivership-over-eagle-downs/

BHP Billiton (2015) BHP Operational Review for the quarter ended 30 September 2015, 21 October 2015 http://www.bhpbilliton.com/~/media/bhp/documents/investors/reports/2015/151023_bhpbillitonoperationalreviewforthequarterended30september2015.pdf?la=en

BHP Billiton (2016a) BHP Billiton Operational Review for the nine months ending 31 March 2016, 20 April 2016 http://www.bhpbilliton.com/~/media/bhp/documents/investors/reports/2016/160420_bhpbillitonoperationalreviewfortheninemonthsended31march2016.pdf

BHP Billiton (2016b) BHP Billiton Operational Review for the Year Ended 30 June 2016, 20 July 2016 http://www.bhpbilliton.com/~/media/bhp/documents/investors/reports/2016/160720_bhpbillitonoperationalreviewfortheyearended30june2016.pdf

Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics (BREE) (2013) Resource and energy major projects, October 2013 http://www.industry.gov.au/Office-of-the-Chief-Economist/Publications/Documents/remp/remp-2013-10.pdf

Cockatoo Coal Limited (2016) Baralaba Mine placed into care and maintenance, 8 February 2016

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20160208/pdf/434x7wrtjhhwv9.pdf

CQ News (2015) Blackwater's Cook Colliery sailing into modern mine era, 5 July 2015 http://www.cqnews.com.au/news/cook-sailing-into-modern-mine-era/2698869/

Department of Natural Resources and Mines (DNRM) (2016a) Queensland coal – mines and advanced projects, July 2016

https://www.dnrm.qld.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0011/238079/coal-mines-advanced-projects.pdf

Department of Natural Resources and Mines (DNRM) (2016b) Worker numbers, 30 June 2016 (unpublished)

Queensland Government Statistician’s Office

Bowen Basin population report, 2016 9

Department of Transport and Main Roads (DTMR) (2016) Queensland Coal Exports for the years ending 30 June 2015 and 30 June 2016, unpublished data.

Glencore (2016) Glencore to begin recruiting at Collinsville Coal Mine http://www.glencore.com.au/EN/media-centre/News/161011_Glencore-to-begin-recruiting-at-Collinsville-Coal-Mine.pdf

Queensland Government Statistician’s Office (QGSO) (2016) Bowen and Galilee Basins non-resident population projections, 2016 to 2022 http://www.qgso.qld.gov.au/subjects/demography/population-projections/reports/bowen-galilee-basins-non-resident-pop-

proj/index.php

Stanmore Coal (2016), First Coal at Isaac Plains Coking Coal Mine, 6 April 2016 http://stanmorecoal.com.au/workspace/uploads/2016-04-06-first-coal-5704d41830444.pdf

Walz Group (2016) Curragh Run-of-Mine (ROM) upgrade http://www.walzgroup.biz/project-expertise/curragh-run-of-mine-rom-upgrade/