boston office market - transwestern · 2017-03-30 · real estate outlook boston office market q1...

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» Tenants absorb 224,000 square feet during the first quarter of 2017.

» Class A product in Boston CBD contributed 201,000 square feet of positive absorption.

» Vacancy in Cambridge declines to second lowest rate on record.

» Financial District led the way in absorption.

» Absorption remains positive along the I-495 belt.

» 10 St. James Avenue & 75 Arlington Street in the Back Bay purchased by Mori Trust.

BOSTON OFFICE MARKETFIRST QUARTER 2017

FINANCIAL DISTRICT | BOSTON

OFFICESTATUS

2 REAL ESTATE OUTLOOK BOSTON OFFICE MARKET Q1 2017


As the first quarter of the year comes to an end, the 186-million-square-foot Greater Boston office market thrived in most categories. With only one quarter of negative absorption during the last 4 years, the office market continued to prosper, experiencing 224,000 square feet of positive absorption, while vacancy decreased slightly and asking rents increased.

The Boston CBD, consisting of 74 million square feet, contributed 77,000 square feet of positive absorption in the first quarter of 2017. Once again, the Financial District led the charge with 328,000 square feet positively absorbed. Also impressive was the Charlestown market that, thanks in large part to Boston Medical Center, experienced 174,000 square feet of positive absorption, its largest on record. There were several large move-ins that resulted in the heavy absorption, including Houghton Mifflin Harcourt and Wells Fargo at 125 High Street in the Financial District, and Red Hat at 300 A Street in the Seaport District. The co-working concept continued to expand to the Back Bay with The Yard signing a lease at 120 St. James Avenue.

The Cambridge market rebounded well from the end of 2016, positively absorbing 112,000 square feet during the first quarter of 2017. Alongside the positive absorption, vacancy also dropped significantly from 4.2 percent last quarter to an impressive current rate of 2.8 percent. The three submarkets, East Cambridge, Mid Cambridge, and West Cambridge, performed well, all experiencing positive absorption and decreasing vacancy rates. The largest move-in belonged to Surface Oncology, taking 32,000 square feet at 50 Hampshire Street in East Cambridge.

Despite a slightly uncharacteristic quarter for Route 128, with negative absorption of 68,000 square feet, the suburban marketplace as a whole remained steady through the beginning of the new year. Interstate 495 saw many credit quality tenants take chunks of space, positively absorbing 133,000 square feet. The future looks bright for both suburban markets, as many signed deals are set to commence in the coming quarters, while there are currently more than 1.3 million square feet under construction.

The Greater Boston economy as a whole remains strong and poised to continue its momentum though 2017. According to an economic outlook report by NAIOP, commercial real estate nationwide has had a tremendously positive impact on the overall economy. Some of the highlights included the industry’s ability to provide more than 6 million American jobs, contribute over $800 billion to U.S. GDP, and generate more than $250 billion in salaries and wages. Unemployment in Greater Boston is approximately 3 percent, well below the national average of around 5 percent. Between job growth and a low unemployment rate, Greater Boston looks healthy and prepared to continue thriving.

Momentum Continues into the New YearFinancial District Leads the Market in Absorption

TRENDLINES

5-YEAR TREND CURRENT QUARTER

VACANCY R ATES

12.5%Vacancy Rates declined

ABSORPTION

+224K SFAbsorption hits four quarter streak

RENTAL R ATE

$43.75 PSFAverage asking rents continue to rise

RBA DELIVERED

0K SFNo new deliveries occured in Q1

AVER AGE OFFICE SALE PRICE

$350 PSF6.1% rise in office sale prices

OFFICE-USING EMPLOYMENT

+3,290 jobsJob growth remained healthy this quarter

VACANCY RATESTotal Market, Class A & B, Office

Data Point:Text: Vacancy Rates declined

12.5%

ABSORPTIONTotal Market, Class A & B, Office

Data Point:Text: Absorption hits four quarter streak

+224k SF

CLASS A OFFICE RENTSTotal Market, Class A, Office

Data Point:Text: Average asking rents continue to rise

$43.75 PSF

RBA DELIVEREDTotal Market, Class A & B, Office

Data Point:Text: No new deliveries occured in Q1

0K SF

AVERAGE OFFICE SALE PRICETotal Market, Class A & B, Office

Data Point:Text: 6.1% rise in office sale prices

$350 PSF

OFFICE-USING EMPLOYMENTBoston Metro, Class A & B, Office

Data Point:Text: Job growth remained healthy this quarter

+3,290 jobs

REAL ESTATE OUTLOOK BOSTON OFFICE MARKET Q1 2017 3

Boston Office Market Indicators by Class

Class A 46,780 0 201 1,086 2.6% 9.5% $55.79 2.5%

Class B 27,627 0 (124) (238) -0.9% 9.2% $42.60 7.1%

Boston Total 74,407 0 77 848 1.3% 9.4% $52.15 2.6%

ALL AMOUNTS, EXCEPT PERCENTAGES AND DOLLAR FIGURES IN THOUSANDS

*LTM = Last Twelve Months // **LTM absorption as a percentage of occupancy levels twelve months ago // ***Twelve months change in asking lease rate

TOTALVACANCY

RENT PSF4QTR**

CHANGEGROWTH**SUBMARKET INVENTORY

RENTABLE AREA DELIVERED

QTRLYABSORPTION

LTM*ABSORPTION

• Boston CBD contributed 77,000 sf of positive absorption in the first quarter of 2017, with Class A product responsible for 201,000 square feet of that absorption.

• Absorption has been positive 15 of the last 16 quarters, totaling 5.2 million square feet during that time.

• Class A vacancy dropped 0.5 percentage points from 10 percent to 9.5 percent.

• Overall average asking rents rose slightly, with Class A space at $55.79 per sf and Class B space at about $42.60 per sf.

• The Financial District and Charlestown market combined for 502,000 sf of positive absorption.

• There is currently 1.1 million sf under construction in the Seaport District, where Skanska will soon start construction on a 225,000 sf speculative office building on Drydock Avenue.

• Large vacancies were filled as Boston Medical Center moved into 171,000 sf at 529 Main Street in Charlestown, while 125 High Street in the Financial District saw Houghton Mifflin Harcourt move into 160,000 sf and Wells Fargo begin phasing into its 150,000 sf space.

• The Yard signed a lease for 32,000 sf at 120 St. James Avenue, joining WeWork in the Back Bay as co-working expands throughout the city.

• Liberty Mutual sold 10 St. James Ave & 75 Arlington Street in the Back Bay to Mori Trust Company for $673 million (825,000 sf, $816/sf).

BOSTON

ABSORPTION

ABSORPTIONBoston Market, Class A & B, Office

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

(400)

(200)

-

200

400

600

800

1,000

2012 Q1 2013 Q1 2014 Q1 2015 Q1 2016 Q1 2017 Q1

Thou

sand

s S

F

Absorption Qtrly Vacancy Rate

ASKING RENTS

ASKING RENTSBack Bay vs Financial District, Class A, Office

$0.00

$10.00

$20.00

$30.00

$40.00

$50.00

$60.00

$70.00

2012 Q1 2013 Q1 2014 Q1 2015 Q1 2016 Q1 2017 Q1

Back Bay Financial District

Per

Sq.

Ft.

CONTIGUOUS BLOCKS

CONTIGUOUS BLOCKSBoston Market, Class A & B, Office20 to 50K sf in distinct properties

-

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

2012 Q1 2013 Q1 2014 Q1 2015 Q1 2016 Q1 2017 Q1

Class A Class B

Num

bero

f Blo

cks



• The Cambridge office market saw 112,000 sf positively absorbed this quarter, rebounding well from the fourth quarter of 2016.

• Multiple tenant move-ins brought the vacancy down 1.4 percentage points to a current level of 2.8 percent, the second lowest on record.

• The average asking rent for Class A space in Cambridge is $65.19 per sf, more than $8.00 higher than the five year average of $56.98 per sf.

• The 6.1 msf market of East Cambridge led the way in absorption, with 57,000 sf positively absorbed, while West Cambridge and Mid Cambridge added 37,000 sf and 19,000 sf, respectively.

• Popularity in East Cambridge remains evident as vacancy dropped drastically to 1.9 percent, overall average asking rents bumped to $74.12 per sf, and Class A trophy space is currently trading in the mid $90s range.

• There is currently one block in the 100,000 sf to 200,000 sf range available in Cambridge; a sublease from Biogen at 105 Broadway in East Cambridge.

• Surface Oncology moved into 32,000 sf in East Cambridge at 50 Hampshire Street, while Novartis extended at 200 Technology Square for 47,185 sf.

• Oxford Properties Group and Alony Hetz Peroperties bought 25 First Street in Cambridge from Jamestown Properties for $202.5 million (232,400 sf, $871 per sf).

CAMBRIDGE

ABSORPTION

ABSORPTIONCambridge, Class A & B, Office

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

9.0%

10.0%

(200)

(100)

-

100

200

300

400

500

600

2012 Q1 2013 Q1 2014 Q1 2015 Q1 2016 Q1 2017 Q1

Thou

sand

s S

F


ASKING RENTS

ASKING RENTSCambridge, Class A, Office

$0.00

$10.00

$20.00

$30.00

$40.00

$50.00

$60.00

$70.00

$80.00

$90.00

2012 Q1 2013 Q1 2014 Q1 2015 Q1 2016 Q1 2017 Q1

East Mid West

Per

Sq.

Ft.

CONTIGUOUS BLOCKS

CONTIGUOUS BLOCKSCambridge, Class A & B, Office20 to 50K sf in distinct properties

-

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

2012 Q1 2013 Q1 2014 Q1 2015 Q1 2016 Q1 2017 Q1

Class A Class B

Num

bero

f Blo

cks

Cambridge Office Market Indicators by Class

Class A 8,083 0 102 94 1.2% 2.5% $65.19 5.2%

Class B 3,066 0 10 (30) -1.0% 3.8% $59.18 27.4%

Cambridge Total 11,150 0 112 63 0.6% 2.8% $64.16 8.3%



TOTALVACANCY

RENT PSF 4QTR**



QTRLYABSORPTION

LTM*ABSORPTION


• Despite negative absorption of 68,000 sf this quarter, Route 128 has experienced 819,000 sf of positive absorption during the last twelve months.

• Since 2010, tenants have absorbed more than 8.0 million square feet of office space, while only experiencing negative absorption in four quarters.

• Vacancy along Route 128 is currently 13.3 percent, with Route 128 South slightly edging out Route 128 West for the lowest vacancy rate, 11.3 percent and 11.5 percent, respectively.

• Vacancy in Route 128 North is at an all-time low of 14.5 percent, while the vacancy rate in 128 South remained stable from last quarter’s 11.3 percent.

• Multiple move-ins helped Route 128 West lead the charge in absorption, totaling 52,000 sf of positive absorption during this quarter.

• 200 Smith Street in Waltham is still under construction, with 430,000 sf expected to be delivered to the market by the end of this year.

• ConforMIS is responsible for the largest move in during the quarter, occupying 45,000 sf at 600 Technology Park Drive in Billerica.

• MetroNorth (125 & 150 Presidential Way) in Route 128 North was sold by National Development and Angelo, Gordon & Co. to The Andover Companies for $47 million (221,000 sf, $213 per sf).

ROUTE 128

ABSORPTION

ABSORPTIONRoute 128, Class A & B, Office

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

16.0%

18.0%

20.0%

(400)

(200)

-

200

400

600

800

2012 Q1 2013 Q1 2014 Q1 2015 Q1 2016 Q1 2017 Q1

Thou

sand

s S

F


ASKING RENTS

ASKING RENTSRoute 128, Class A, Office

$0.00

$5.00

$10.00

$15.00

$20.00

$25.00

$30.00

$35.00

$40.00

$45.00

2012 Q1 2013 Q1 2014 Q1 2015 Q1 2016 Q1 2017 Q1

North West South

Per

Sq.

Ft.

CONTIGUOUS BLOCKS

CONTIGUOUS BLOCKSRoute 128, Class A & B, Office20 to 50K sf in distinct properties

-

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

2012 Q1 2013 Q1 2014 Q1 2015 Q1 2016 Q1 2017 Q1

Class A Class B

Num

bero

f Blo

cks

Route 128 Office Market Indicators by Class

Class A 34,393 0 (32) 557 1.8% 12.0% $30.60 0.3%

Class B 27,862 0 (36) 262 1.1% 13.6% $23.24 7.6%

Route 128 Total 61,976 0 (68) 819 1.5% 12.7% $27.47 2.5%



TOTALVACANCY

RENT PSF4QTR**



QTRLYABSORPTION

LTM*ABSORPTION



• The Interstate 495 market experienced 133,000 sf of positive absorption in the first quarter of 2017.

• Despite the positive absorption, I-495 saw vacancy remain stable at 21.7 percent, while the average asking rent rose into the $19.00 range for the first time in eight years, to $19.31 per sf.

• Class A vacancy along the I-495 belt is currently 17.1 percent, while Class B vacancy is 25 percent.

• The I-495 North submarket led the way, positively absorbing 118,000 sf, while vacancy dropped 0.8 percentage points to 23.8 percent and the asking rent jumped to $19.36 per sf.

• I-495 West snapped a two-quarter negative absorption streak, positively absorbing 38,000 sf to start 2017.

• Though there were several move-ins, Mercury Systems was primarily responsible for the positive absorption, occupying 155,100 sf at 50 Minuteman Road in Andover.

• In the I-495 West submarket, both Speedline Technologies and Disruptor Beam signed leases set to commence in June, with Speedline taking nearly 40,000 sf at 35 Parkwood Drive in Hopkinton, and Disruptor Beam moving into 30,600 sf at 100 Pennsylvania Avenue in Framingham.

• The Gutierrez Company sold 100 Nagog Park in Acton to the Insulet Corporation for $9.3 million (194,800 sf, $47.48 per sf).

INTERSTATE 495

ABSORPTION

ABSORPTIONI-495, Class A & B, Office

18.5%

19.0%

19.5%

20.0%

20.5%

21.0%

21.5%

22.0%

22.5%

23.0%

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

-

100

200

300

400

2012 Q1 2013 Q1 2014 Q1 2015 Q1 2016 Q1 2017 Q1

Thou

sand

s S

F


ASKING RENTS

ASKING RENTSI-495, Class A, Office

$15.00

$16.00

$17.00

$18.00

$19.00

$20.00

$21.00

$22.00

$23.00

2012 Q1 2013 Q1 2014 Q1 2015 Q1 2016 Q1 2017 Q1

North West South

Per

Sq.

Ft.

CONTIGUOUS BLOCKS

CONTIGUOUS BLOCKSI-495, Class A & B, Office20 to 50K sf in distinct properties

-

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2012 Q1 2013 Q1 2014 Q1 2015 Q1 2016 Q1 2017 Q1

Class A Class B

Num

bero

f Blo

cks

I-495 Office Market Indicators by Class

Class A 14,596 0 122 384 3.2% 17.1% $21.92 2.9%

Class B 19,842 0 11 637 5.2% 25.0% $17.19 1.2%

I-495 Total 34,438 0 133 39 0.1% 21.7% $19.31 2.2%



TOTALVACANCY

RENT PSF 4QTR**



QTRLYABSORPTION

LTM*ABSORPTION


Context: Vacancy Rate by SubmarketClass A & B, Office

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

495 North 495 West 128 North 128 West 128 South Back Bay FinancialDistrict

Seaport Cambridge

2017 Q1 5-Yr Average

Prepared by: Transwestern RBJ

Greater Boston Office Market Indicators by Submarket

Financial District 36,212 0 328 112 0.3% 8.8% $53.67 2.9%

Back Bay 14,284 0 (224) 151 1.2% 12.2% $61.17 0.2%

Longwood/Inner South 5,551 0 8 188 3.7% 8.5% $38.68 -

Seaport District 9,473 0 (131) 334 3.9% 10.6% $58.66 4.8%

Charlestown 2,782 0 174 114 4.2% 3.1% -

Midtown 2,217 0 (68) (19) -1.0% 13.4% $50.00 -

North Station 2,391 0 6 (40) -1.8% 5.6% $52.00 -

South Station 1,498 0 (15) 10 0.7% 5.4% -

Boston Total 74,407 0 77 848 1.3% 9.4% $55.79 2.5%

East Cambridge/Kendall Square 7,355 0 57 151 2.1% 1.9% $77.08 3.6%

Mid Cambridge/Harvard Square 2,129 0 19 (100) -5.0% 5.1% $63.94 0.8%

West Cambridge/Alewife Station 1,666 0 37 13 0.8% 3.9% $46.78 0.9%

Cambridge Total 11,150 0 112 63 0.6% 2.8% $65.19 5.2%

Inner North/Streetcar Suburbs 3,714 0 (30) 302 9.5% 14.6% $29.82 3.2%

Suburban Submarkets (excl Cam) 100,128 0 35 1,160 1.4% 15.9% $27.83 0.7%

Route 128 North 26,226 0 (118) 163 0.7% 14.5% $27.42 1.1%

Route 128 West 23,344 0 52 395 1.9% 11.5% $38.56 0.6%

Route 128 South 12,406 0 (3) 261 2.4% 11.3% $22.92 1.1%

Route 128 Total 61,976 0 (68) 819 1.5% 12.7% $30.60 0.3%

I-495 North 15,415 0 118 276 2.3% 23.8% $21.49 3.3%

I-495 West 16,400 0 38 (329) -2.5% 20.9% $22.39 2.4%

I-495 South 2,623 0 (24) 93 4.1% 13.9% $21.37 1.4%

I-495 Total 34,438 0 133 39 0.1% 21.7% $21.92 2.9%

Route 128 & I-495 Total 96,414 0 65 858 1.1% 15.9% $27.80 0.8%

Greater Boston Market Total 185,685 0 224 2,072 1.3% 12.5% $43.75 4.3%



4QTR***CHANGE

SUBMARKET INVENTORYRENTABLE AREA

DELIVEREDQTRLY

ABSORPTIONLTM*

ABSORPTIONGROWTH**

TOTALVACANCY

RENT PSFCLASS A

Vaca

ncy

Rate

Context: Vacancy Rate by SubmarketClass A & B, Office

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

495 North 495 West 128 North 128 West 128 South Back Bay FinancialDistrict

Seaport Cambridge

2017 Q1 5-Yr Average

Prepared by: Transwestern RBJ

CONTACT

Chase BourdelaiseDirector of Research, Northeast [email protected]

T 617.439.6000 F 617.439.9707www.transwestern.com/boston

99 High Street, 30th FloorBoston, MA 02110

Tom HoveyResearch [email protected]

Copyright © 2017 Transwestern. All rights reserved. No part of this work may be reproduced or distributed to third parties without written permission of the copyright owner. The information contained in this report was gathered by Transwestern from CoStar and other primary and secondary sources believed to be reliable. Transwestern, however, makes no representation concerning the accuracy or completeness of such information and expressly disclaims any responsibility for any inaccuracy contained herein.

METHODOLOGY

The information in this report is the result of a compilation of information on office properties located in the Boston metropolitan area. This report includes single-tenant, multi-tenant office properties 20,000 sf and larger, excluding condo and medical office facilities and those properties owned and occupied by a user or government agency.

boston office market - transwestern · 2017-03-30 · real estate outlook boston office market q1...

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