boston by the numbers: population - past and future

Boston by the NumbersOctober 26, 2016

imagine.boston.gov @ImagineBos #ImagineBoston

Since Fall 2015, we have had over 12,000+ interactions with Bostonians across the City to hear their vision and

concerns for Boston in 2030 and beyond.

Utile – can we show images of the visioning sessions, open houses, textizen, etc here


Today, we are here to talk about the opportunity – and the challenges – presented by Boston’s recent growth.

Boston’s population has recovered from a mid-century decline, growing steadily between 1980 and 2010 and accelerating rapidly over the last five years.

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau Decennial Census; U.S. Census Bureau, 2010 Decennial Census, 2014 1-Year American Community Survey


Boston wasn’t always growing. Declining industry, a movement to the suburbs and local race relations led to population loss.

Population change over time benchmarked to 1950

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, 1900-2010 U.S. Decennial Census, 2013 American Community Survey 1-year estimate; HR&A analysis

1950 1960 1970 1980

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

Boston 801,444Population peak

New York City, -10%

Baltimore, -17%Philadelphia, -19%Washington D.C., -20%

Boston, -30% 562,994 Lowest point in 20th century

San Francisco, -12%

% Change, 1950-1980

Seattle, -6%


Beginning in the 1980s, Boston began to recover population, entering a league with dynamic, knowledge-driven peer cities.

Population change over time compared to 1980

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, 1900-2010 U.S. Decennial Census, 2013 American Community Survey 1-year estimate; HR&A analysis

1980 1990 2000 2010 2013

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

Boston, 12%629,182

New York City, 17%

Baltimore, -21%

Washington D.C., -3%

% Change, 1980-2013

Boston, 562,994

1980Philadelphia, -9%

San Francisco, 20%

Seattle, 26%

2013CAGR: .2% CAGR: .26% CAGR: .47% CAGR: .62%


6% Population growth

to 656,051, 2010-2014

7% Job growth

to 642,265, 2010-2014

Sources: EMSI, U.S. Census Bureau, 2010 Decennial Census, 2011-2014 1-year American Community Surveys, BRA Research Division Analysis

Population Jobs

617,594 597,671

38,457 44,594

2010

2014

This growth has accelerated over the past five years and is expected to continue, with over 700,000 residents expected by 2030.


Boston's Population projections: 2010 – 2030

BOSTON'S POPULATION: PAST AND FUTUREBPDA Research Division

October, 2016

Boston's Population projections: 2010 – 2030TRENDS

111900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

500,000

550,000

600,000

650,000

700,000

750,000

800,000

850,000

667,137

617,594

589,141574,823562,994

641,071

697,197

801,444

770,816781,188

748,060

670,585

560,892

Boston's Population (1900-2015)

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 1900-2010 Decennial Census, 2015 Census Population Estimate, BPDA Research Division Analysis

2015

Boston’s population reached its peak in 1950, with just over 800,000 residents Like many major U.S. cities, Boston experienced significant decline in the post-World War II era. By 1980, Boston’s population fell to

under 563,000 residents Since 1980, Boston’s population grew by 18%, with the 2010 Census marking the first time since 1970 that Boston’s population

exceeded 600,000 people

The population growth between 2000 and 2010 (4.8%) marks the first time in the last one hundred years that the population of Boston grew faster than that of the state (3.1%)

1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

3.1%

5.5%4.9%

0.8%

10.5%9.8%8.7%

1.6%

10.3%

14.4%

4.8%

2.5%2.1%

-12.2%

-8.1%

-13.0%

4.0%

-1.3%

4.4%

11.6%

19.6%

Population Growth for Boston and Massachusetts by Decade (1910 – 2010)

Boston % Change Massachusetts % Change

12

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 1910-2010 U.S. Decennial Census, BPDA Research Division Analysis

Boston’s population growth between 2000 and 2010 compares favorably to most Northern cities. Other cities on this list – including Charlotte, Raleigh and Austin – benefit from their states’ liberal land annexation laws, which allow them to expand their populations by annexing adjacent land

13

Raleigh, NCCharlotte, NC

Austin, TXPortland, OR

Miami, FLPhoenix, AZDenver, COSeattle, WAHouston, TX

San Diego, CASan Jose, CA

Washington, DCBoston, MA

San Francisco, CALos Angeles, CA

New York, NYAtlanta, GA

Dallas, TXPhiladelphia, PA

Minneapolis, MNBaltimore, MD

Chicago, ILSt. Louis, MO

Pittsburgh, PADetroit, MI

-30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%46.3%

35.2%20.4%

10.3%10.2%

9.4%8.2%8.0%

7.5%6.9%

5.7%5.2%

4.8%3.7%

2.6%2.1%

0.8%0.8%0.6%

0.0%-4.6%

-6.9%-8.3%-8.6%

-25.0%

Population Growth with Comparison Cities (2000 - 2010)

This report’s consistent set of 25 comparison cities: the principal cities of the nation’s largest metropolitan areas, plus 3 cities whose highly educated metro area populations make them good comparisons for Boston. These include Raleigh, Austin and San Jose.Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 and 2010 U.S. Decennial Census, BPDA Research Division Analysis

Since 1970, the foreign-born population has increased significantly, driving Boston’s population growth From 1980 to 2000, all of Boston’s population growth was due to growth in the foreign-born population Since 2000, both the foreign-born and native-born populations have been growing

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 20100

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

167,311 190,123144,092

109,964 83,988 87,056114,597 151,836

454,072 479,346

657,352587,974

557,068

475,938 459,686 437,305

669,469

Native and Foreign-born Components of Boston's Population (1950-2015)

Total Population Native BornForeign Born American Community Survey Estimates

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 1950-2010 Decennial Census, 2006-2010 & 2015 American Community Survey, BPDA Research Division AnalysisNote: Nativity components for 2010 come from the ACS and the Total comes from the Decennial Census so the components do not sum to the total shown.

2015

In 2010, Boston’s population was 52% female, a higher proportion than the US and Massachusetts (50.8% and 51.6% respectively)

Between 2000 and 2010, the female population in Boston grew by 5.3%, while the male population grew slightly more slowly at 4.4%

15

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 1950-2010 U.S. Decennial Census, 2015 1-Year American Community Survey, BPDA Research Division Analysis

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 20150

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

388,180

334,707

295,240

265,526 275,972 283,588295,951

322,149

413,264

362,490345,831

297,468 298,311 305,553321,643

347,320

Gender Component of Boston's Population (1950-2015)

Males Females

Demographic growth is based on (a) natural growth -- births minus deaths -- and (b) net migration

Natural growth in 2012 was 4,274 persons. The decline in deaths over the decade contributed to an increase in natural growth

Immigration also drives Boston's population growth in part because of the high number of births to immigrants - 40% of Boston births are to foreign-born mothers

16

Source: Massachusetts Department of Public Health, BPDA Research Division Analysis

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20130

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

8,067 8,216 8,003 7,812 7,716 7,5477,906 7,852 8,015 7,973 7,807 8,042 8,011 7,817

4,500 4,572 4,416 4,284 4,063 4,070

3,812 3,878 3,701 3,649 3,595 3,742 3,7803,567 3,644 3,587 3,528 3,653 3,477

4,040 4,137 4,272 4,1584,447 4,269 4,037

Boston Resident Births and Deaths (2000-2013)

Births Deaths Natural Change

The natural population growth of the White population went from negative in 2000 to positive in 2003 and continued to grow through 2012

The natural population growth of the Black/African American population remained positive but decreased due to a lower number of births

The natural population growth of the Latino population remained high, at 1,705 in 2012

Asian natural growth remained steady over the periods 2000-2012

17

Source: Massachusetts Department of Public Health, Boston Public Health Commission Research and Evaluation Office, BPDA Research Division Analysis

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

-1000

-500

0

500

1000

1500

2000

541 508 470 448 452 441 540

1,499 1,373

1,158 1,330

1,125 1,200

1,172

1,585 1,618 1,404 1,517 1,507

1,461 1,705

-336-194

204 297

762 916 768

Boston Natural Population Growth by Race and Ethnicity (2000-2012)

Asian Black Hispanic White

Boston’s White population decreased from 80% of the population in 1970 to 47% in 2010

The share of the Hispanic/Latino population increased from 3% in 1970 to 18% of Boston’s population in 2010

The African American population shifted from 16% of the population in 1970 to 22% of the population in 2010

Hispanic and Asian immigration contribute heavily to Boston’s growing diversity

18

Note: 2000 was the first year the Census compiled data on individuals who identified themselves as multiracial. Those who indicated “two or more races” are included in “Other” in 2000 and 2010 in this chart.Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 1970 -2010 U.S. Decennial Census, 2015 American Community Survey, BPDA Research Division Analysis

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 20150%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

79.8%67.9%

59.0%49.5% 47.0% 44.7%

15.8%

21.7%

23.8%

23.8%22.4% 22.9%

2.6%6.4%

10.8%

14.4% 17.5% 19.5%

2.7% 5.2%7.5% 8.9% 9.5%4.5% 4.1% 3.4%

Boston's Diverse Population 1970-2015

White Black / African American Hispanic / Latino Asian / Pacific Islander Other Race*

19

Since 2000, Boston has become a “majority-minority” city. The non-white population is over 50% partly due to the growth of the foreign-born population from Latin America, the Caribbean, and Asia

This trend continued in 2010 with the minority population making up 53% of Boston’s population or about 328,231 residents

1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 20100%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1.4% 1.7% 1.9% 2.3% 2.2% 2.3% 2.9% 3.3% 5.3%9.8%

20.2%

32.1%

41.0%

50.5% 53.0%

98.6% 98.3% 98.1% 97.7% 97.8% 97.7% 97.1% 96.7% 94.7%90.2%

79.8%

67.9%

59.0%

49.5% 47.0%

Boston's Minority Population 1870-2010

Total non-White population White population

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 1870-2010 U.S. Decennial Census, BPDA Research Division Analysis

The Racial Diversity Index calculates the likelihood that two people randomly chosen from a geographic area are from a different racial or ethnic group

The Diversity Index shows that Boston and most of its neighborhoods, though not all of its neighborhoods, were more diverse in 2010 than in 2000

The Racial Diversity Index for the city as a whole increased from .64 to .66 between 2000 and 2010

20

Dorchester Harbor IslandsBoston

Mission Hill

Roslindale

Hyde Park

Roxbury

South End

Jamaica Plain

Allston

East Boston

West EndBay Village

FenwayBrightonLMADowntown

West Roxbury

Charlestown

South Boston

Mattapan

Leather District

Chinatown

Back Bay

South Boston Waterfront

Beacon HillNorth End

0.00

0.50

1.00

Neighborhood Diversity Index (2000 - 2010)2010 2000

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 and 2010 U.S. Decennial Census, BPDA Research Division AnalysisBased on the methodology “Mapping the USA’s diversity from 1960 to 2060” USA TODAY

RACIAL DIVERSITY

Racial diversity by census tract increased dramatically in most of Boston from 1970 to 2010

In the maps, yellow represents census tracts with low racial diversity index scores, while red represents census tracts with high racial diversity

21Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 1970 - 2010 U.S. Decennial Census, BPDA Research Division Analysis

BLACK/AFRICAN AMERICAN POPULATION

In 1970, the Black/African American population was largely concentrated in the neighborhoods of Roxbury and parts of Dorchester and Mattapan (tracts colored red in the maps at right)

In 2010 that concentration was still evident, although the Black/African American population had increased throughout Dorchester, Mattapan, and Hyde Park

22Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 1970 - 2010 U.S. Decennial Census, BPDA Research Division Analysis

HISPANIC POPULATION

23Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 1970-2010 U.S. Decennial Census, BPDA Research Division Analysis

The Hispanic population has grown significantly since 1970 with large communities with large communities forming in East Boston and Jamaica Plain (colored red in maps at right)

24

1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 20150%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

34% 35% 35% 36%

30%

18%

13%

16%

20%

26% 27%28%

17%

21%

24% 25% 25%

30%32%

28%

25%

20%

15%

11%9% 9% 10%

12%15%

16%

10%

13% 14% 13%15% 14% 15%

13% 12%

9%7%

5% 5% 6%8%

11%13% 13%

Proportion of Population that is Foreign-Born (1850-2015)

Boston Massachusetts United States

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 1850-2010 Decennial Census, 2015 American Community Survey, BPDA Research Division Analysis

Restrictive immigration policies 1925-1970 reduced the foreign born population and limited Boston’s population growth Since 1970, Boston foreign-born share has increased from 13% to 28%

FOREIGN BORN POPULATION

The percentage of the population that is foreign-born has increased in most census tracts in Boston since 1970

In the maps at right, yellow census tracts have a foreign-born population of less than 10%

In the red census tracts, foreign-born residents make up more than 60% of the population

25Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 1970-2010 U.S. Decennial Census, BPDA Research Division Analysis

26

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 20150%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

0.6% 4.8% 3.3%9.0% 10.1% 12.4%

25.2%

32.3%45.1%

49.3% 50.3% 49.3%8.0%

16.0%

21.0%

24.2% 25.3% 25.6%

63.6%

37.9%

24.2%17.5% 14.3% 12.7%

Region of Origin of Boston's Immigrants

Africa Americas Asia Europe

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 1970-2010 Decennial Census, 2015 1-year American Community Survey, BPDA Research Division Analysis

In 1970, a majority of Boston’s immigrants had come from Europe Since then, increasing shares of immigrants have come from the Americas, Asia, and Africa

27Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2015 1-year American Community Survey, BPDA Research Division Analysis

Guatemala

India

Jamaica

Colombia

Vietnam

El Salvador

Cape Verde

Haiti

Dominican Republic

China

0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14%

2.1%

2.1%

3.7%

4.0%

5.2%

5.5%

5.6%

8.2%

10.5%

12.5%

Top Ten Countries of Origin for Boston’s Foreign Born - 2015

Percent of Foreign-born Population

Boston’s foreign-born population comes from more than 100 countries. The largest foreign born populations in Boston are Chinese, Dominican, and Haitian

28

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 202025

27

29

31

33

35

37

3939.1 39.4

37.237.8

30.831.8

29.5 30

32.9

35.3

32.1

29.5

31.2

33.4

36.5

39.1

32.9

28.1

28.9

30.4

31.1 30.8

Median Age in Boston/MA/US (1950-2015)

Boston Massachusetts U.S.2015

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 1950-2010 Decennial Census, 2015 American Community Survey, BPDA Research Division Analysis

The median age in Massachusetts and the U.S. has risen significantly since 1970 While the median age in Boston has also risen, the large young adult population keeps Boston’s median

age below that of Massachusetts or the U.S.

29

0 to 4

5 to 9

10 to 14

15 to 19

20 to 24

25 to 29

30 to 34

35 to 39

40 to 44

45 to 49

50 to 54

55 to 59

60 to 64

65 to 69

70 to 74

75 to 79

80 to 84

85 Plus

50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000

2015 ACS

50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000

Female Male

1980

50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000

2010

Boston has a large young adult population, as shown in the population pyramids below.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 1980, 2010 Decennial Census, 2015 1-year American Community Survey, BPDA Research Division Analysis

Households are made up of one or more persons (unrelated individuals or families) sharing a housing unit

Boston’s average household size fell significantly from 3.4 in 1950 to 2.4 in 1980 and remained steady through 2010

Since 1950, Boston’s average household size has been lower than that of the U.S.

30Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 1950-2000 U.S. Decennial Census, 2006-2010 American Community Survey, 2015 American Community Survey, BPDA Research Division Analysis

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 20102

2.2

2.4

2.6

2.8

3

3.2

3.4

3.6

2.7

2.4

3.4

3.3

3.1

2.72.6 2.6 2.6

3.4

3.0

2.8

2.4 2.4

2.3 2.3

Average Household Size (1950-2015)

Boston USA ACS Estimates

2015

31

DorchesterMattapan

East BostonHyde ParkRoslindale

RoxburyMission Hill

Jamaica PlainWest Roxbury

AllstonSouth BostonCharlestown

BrightonSouth End

South Boston WaterfrontDowntownNorth EndBeacon Hill

Back BayFenway

LongwoodWest End

0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 32.86

2.842.832.82

2.662.51

2.432.39

2.342.29

2.182.11

2.061.93

1.881.77

1.691.67

1.631.62

1.561.55

Average Household Size by Neighborhood (2013)

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2009-2013 American Community Survey, BPDA Research Division Analysis

Boston’s neighborhoods vary by average household size. In 2013, Dorchester, Mattapan, East Boston and Hyde Park had the highest average household sizes, while Back Bay, Fenway, Longwood and the West End had the lowest

32

The share of Boston’s population that is single, never-married, has been rising from 33.1% in 1950 to 56.4% in 2010 – considerably higher than the national share

The percentage of Boston’s population that is married has been falling proportionately, from 55.4% in 1950 to 31.9% in 2010

Note: Age 14+ for 1950-1970; Age 15+ for 1980-2010. Separated is included in married for 1950, 2000, & 2010.Source: U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Decennial Census 1950-2000, 2006-2010 American Community Survey, 2009-2013 American Community Survey, BPDA Research Division Analysis.

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 20130%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

33.1% 33.5%39.5%

47.2%50.9%

50.5%56.4%

56.6%55.4% 51.2% 43.4% 33.9% 31.7% 36.6%

31.9% 31.4%

11.5% 15.3% 17.1% 18.9% 17.4% 12.9% 11.7% 12.0%

23.1% 22.1% 25.4% 26.3% 26.9% 27.1%31.0% 33.1%

Marital Status of Boston's Population (1950-2013)

Boston Single Boston Married Boston Widowed or Divorced U.S. Single

% o

f 14/

15+

Popu

latio

n

33

More people are living alone, and the average household size declined between 1960 and 1980

Only 30.4% of households have more than 2 people in 2015, down from 49.2% in 1960

Note: The slides on household and family composition begin in the year of first available data.Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 1960-2010 U.S. Decennial Census; 2015American Community Survey, BPDA Research Division Analysis

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 20150%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

23.9% 28.9%36.8% 35.5% 37.1% 37.7% 37.3%

26.8%28.7%

29.0% 29.5% 29.6% 31.1% 32.2%17.3%

15.1%

13.9% 14.9% 14.3% 14.9% 14.9%13.4%10.9%

9.3% 10.3% 9.8% 9.8% 9.0%8.9% 6.9%

5.4% 5.4% 5.3% 4.1% 4.0%9.6% 9.5% 5.6% 4.5% 3.9%2.3% 2.5%

Boston Households by Number of People (1960-2015)

Total Occupied Units 1 person in unit 2 persons 3 persons4 persons 5 persons 6 or more persons

Occ

upie

d Ho

usin

g Un

its

34

A family or family household consists of a householder living with one or more other people related to the householder by birth, marriage, or adoption

The percentage of Boston households that are families has been consistently lower than the national average

This trend corresponds with the falling percentage of Boston residents who are married, and the falling share of children as a percentage of the population

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 1970-2010 U.S. Decennial Census, 2009-2013 American Community Survey, BPDA Research Division Analysis

1970 1980 1990 2000 201040%

45%

50%

55%

60%

65%

70%

75%

80%

85%

66.4%

60.8%

47.2%

80.3%

73.2%70.2%

68.1% 66.8%

77.4%

67.7%

64.0% 61.5% 60.0%

64.8%

53.3%50.7% 48.1%

46.0%

Family Households (1970-2013)

Boston Greater Boston area United States ACS Estimates

% o

f Tot

al H

ouse

hold

s

2013

35

The percentage of family households that were headed by a married couple fell from 1970 to 1990. Since 1990, a little over half of family households have included a married couple


1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 20150%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

72.5%63.0% 58.6% 58.6% 55.5% 56.4%

4.9%

6.6%8.3% 8.3%

9.0% 10.1%

22.6%30.4% 33.1% 33.1% 35.5% 33.5%

Family Households by Family Type ( 1970-2015)

Married Unmarried Male Householder Unmarried Female Householder

36

The percentage of Boston households that include at least one person under age 18 has been falling and remains below national and regional levels


1970 1980 1990 2000 201020%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

32.9%

29.8%

23.6%

44.1%

37.9%

33.6%36.0%

33.5%

41.5%

33.0%

29.1%30.7% 30.3%31.6%

27.0%24.8% 25.6%

22.9%

Households with Children under 18 (1970-2013)

Boston MAPC Region United States ACS Estimates

2013

37

Boston has a smaller percentage of households with a person over age 65 than either the Greater Boston region or the nation

In 2013, 38.8% of Boston residents 65 and over lived in a single-person household

52.7% of Boston seniors lived in family households in 2013 and 8.0% of them lived with a son or daughter


2000 2010 20130%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

18.9% 19.0% 19.6%

24.1% 23.6%25.2%

23.4% 24.0%25.5%

Households with person over age 65

Boston Greater Boston region United States

% o

f all

hous

ehol

ds

Boston's Population projections: 2010 – 2030

2030 PROJECTIONS

39

1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010500,000

550,000

600,000

650,000

700,000

750,000

800,000

850,000

667,137

617,594

589,141574,823

562,994

641,071

697,197

801,444

770,816781,188

748,060

670,585

560,892

Boston's Population (1900-2015)

Driven by immigration & increasing student population


2015

Driven by annexation of land, immigration, & natural change: births-deaths

Driven by lower international migration and out-migration of

families (suburbanization)

401930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010


0-4 Years

5-9 Years

10-14 Years

15-19 Years

20-24 Years

25-29 Years

30-34 Years

35-39 Years

40-44 Years

45-49 Years

50-54 Years

55-59 Years

60-64 Years

65-69 Years

70-75 Years

75-79 Years

80-84 Years

85 Years or older

50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000

Female Male

1980

50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000

2010

Boston’s Population by Age and Sex

1950

41

COMPONENTS OF POPULATION CHANGE

Deaths

Natural Change Migration

PopulationBase Births

Domestic In-

Migration

ProjectedPopulation

Domestic Out-

Migration

Net International

Migration= + - + - +

42

0-4 Years

5-9 Years

10-14 Years

15-19 Years

20-24 Years

25-29 Years

30-34 Years

35-39 Years

40-44 Years

45-49 Years

50-54 Years

55-59 Years

60-64 Years

65-69 Years

70-75 Years

75-79 Years

80-84 Years

85 Years or older

50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000

Boston -2010 Decennial Census

Female Male

Population Base: Boston’s 2010 population of 617,594

POPULATION BASEPopulation

Base Births Deaths Domestic In-Migration

Domestic Out-Migration

Net International Migration

ProjectedPopulation - + += + -

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2010 Decennial Census, BPDA Research Division Analysis

43

15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-490%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%

2.3%

4.6%

6.2%

7.9%

5.7%

1.4%

0.1%

1.4%

2.8%

4.3%

8.9%

6.9%

1.9%

0.2%

Boston’s Age-Specific Annual Birth Rates

2006 to 2009 Average 2010 to 2014 Average

Mother’s Age at Birth

Mat

erna

l Birt

h Ra

te

Boston has averaged 7,900 births a year since 2000 Overall fertility has declined slightly and shifted to older mothers

BIRTHS

Source: Massachusetts Department of Public Health, Births to Boston Residents, 2006-2014 & U.S. Census Bureau, 2006-2014 1-year American Community Survey, 2010 Decennial Census, BPDA Research Division Analysis

PopulationBase Births Deaths Domestic

In-MigrationDomestic

Out-MigrationNet International

MigrationProjectedPopulation - + += + -

44

less than 1

1-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60- 64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85-89 90-940%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%16.5%

Boston Gender Specific One-Year Death Rates by Age, 2010-2013

Male average 1-year Death Rate Female average 1-year Death Rate

One

-yea

r Dea

th R

ate

DEATHS

Source: Massachusetts Department of Public Health, Boston Resident Deaths 2010-2013 & U.S. Census Bureau, 2010 Decennial Census, 2011-2013 1-year American Community Survey, BPDA Research Division Analysis

Boston deaths have been declining from an average of 4,496 a year from 2000 to 2002 to an average of 3,692 a year from 2010 to 2013





45

NATURAL CHANGE IN POPULATION

Source: Massachusetts Department of Public Health, Boston Resident Births and Deaths 2000-2013, BPDA Research Division Analysis

Births outnumber deaths in Boston by about 3,500 to 4,000 a year In the absence of migration, Boston’s population would have grown by this amount through natural change

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 -

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

3,567 3,644 3,587 3,528 3,653 3,477

4,042 4,040 4,137 4,272 4,158 4,447

4,269 4,037

Natural Change in Boston's Population, 2000-2013

Birt

hs m

inus

Dea

ths





46

The BPDA migration methodology measures three types of migration

Domestic in-migration: people who move to Boston from elsewhere in the United States

Domestic in-migration rate is the percentage of the U.S. population outside of Boston that moves to Boston

Domestic out-migration: people who move from Boston to elsewhere in the United States

Domestic out-migration rate is the percentage of the Boston population that moves elsewhere in the United States

Net international migration: net movement of people to Boston from other countries and from Boston to other countries

Net international migration rate is the net percentage of Boston residents who moved internationally





47

NET MIGRATION

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2007-2014 1-year American Community Survey, PUMS, BPDA Research Division Analysis

From 2007 to 2014, Boston had a net gain on average of 2,376 people per year due to migration. This positive net migration is due to the large influx of 17 to 24 year olds

0-4 5-16 17-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85+-4,000

-2,000

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

-1,310

-413

9,046

2,873

-1,736-2,404

-1,310 -1,101

-204 -199 -36 -224 -271 -186 -34 -12 -103

Average Annual Net Migration 2007 to 2014

Age

Aver

age

Annu

al N

et M

igra

tion





48

Natural change explains the U.S. population pyramid well: births replenish the 0-4 cohort and deaths gradually diminish the older cohorts However, migration is a more important factor in Boston’s population, creating a bulge in the young adult years and making projections

much more difficult

Source: U. S. Census Bureau, 2010, U.S. Decennial Census , BPDA Research Division Analysis

0-4 Years

5-9 Years

10-14 Years

15-19 Years

20-24 Years

25-29 Years

30-34 Years

35-39 Years

40-44 Years

45-49 Years

50-54 Years

55-59 Years

60-64 Years

65-69 Years

70-75 Years

75-79 Years

80-84 Years

85 Years or older

15,000,000 10,000,000 5,000,000 0 5,000,000 10,000,000 15,000,000

United States - 2010 Decennial Census

Female Male

0-4 Years

5-9 Years

10-14 Years

15-19 Years

20-24 Years

25-29 Years

30-34 Years

35-39 Years

40-44 Years

45-49 Years

50-54 Years

55-59 Years

60-64 Years

65-69 Years

70-75 Years

75-79 Years

80-84 Years

85 Years or older

50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000

Boston - 2010 Decennial Census

Female Male

Domestic Out-migration

Domestic & International In-migration

Domestic Out-migration

Deaths

Births

United States

Average annual migration flows to and from Boston (2007-2014):

Domestic In-migration = 54,407

Domestic Out-migration = 58,101

Net International Migration = 6,070

Boston

Greater Boston-5,138Massachusetts

+ 350

+1,095

World+ 6,070

United States

MIGRATION FLOWS

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2007-2014 1-year American Community Surveys, BPDA Research Division Analysis

50

BPDA population projection methodology yields a projected Boston population of 723,500 in 2030

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 1900-2010 Decennial Census, 2010-2030 Population Projections, BPDA Research Division Analysis





1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 500,000

550,000

600,000

650,000

700,000

750,000

800,000

850,000

560,892

670,585

748,060

781,188770,816

801,444

697,197

641,071

562,994574,823

589,141

617,594617594

676000

723500

Decennial Census BPDA Projection

51

COMPARISON TO OTHER POPULATION PROJECTIONS

Source: Reardon, Tim & Hari, Meghna, “Metro Boston 2030 Population and Housing Demand Projections,” MAPC, 2014.Renski, Henry & Strate, Susan “Long-Term Population Projections for Massachusetts Regions and Municipalities,” UMDI, 2014.BPDA Research Division Analysis

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030500,000

550,000

600,000

650,000

700,000

750,000

800,000

562,994

574,823589,141

617,594

709,500723,500

752,000

Decennial Census MAPC Projection BPDA Projection Donahue Projection

52

THE PROJECTIONS DATABASE AND MODEL CAN BE UPDATED AS NEW DATA BECOME AVAILABLE

BPDA PROJECTIONS ARE BASED ON MOST UP-TO-DATE DATA:

2010 Census from U.S. Census Bureau (Population Base)

2010-2014 birth and death data from Massachusetts Department of Public Health (Natural Change)

2007-2014 migration data from U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Surveys (Migration)

boston by the numbers: population - past and future

Government & Nonprofit