blue book ii car
TRANSCRIPT
Automotive Insights from Kelley Blue Book
BLUE BOOK Market Report JUNE
2013
Natalie Kumaratne | Public Relations Coordinator949.267.4770 | [email protected]
Brenna Robinson | Public Relations Manager949.267.4781 | [email protected]
Kelley Blue Book Public Relations Contacts:
In This Issue:
Joanna Pinkham | Senior Public Relations Manager949.268.3079 | [email protected]
USED-CAR MARKET ANALYSIS:
Auction Values Ease into Typical Summer DeclineUSED-CAR MARKET ANALYSIS Auction Values Ease into Typical Summer Decline
Fuel Prices Remain Mostly Flat in May and June
Compact Segment - Retained Value
Consistent Declines in the Compact Segment
Imports Outperforming Most Full-Size Pickup Trucks in June
Mid-Size Pickup Trucks Trending Higher in 2013 Due to Diminished Supply
Minivan Auction Values Drop During Last Four Weeks
SUV/Crossover Segment Declines in June
Mid-Size Vehicles Continue Decline in June
Full-Size Sedans Down Year-to-Date
Luxury Values See Small Declines in June
Luxury Utility Vehicles Retaining Strong Values
HOT USED-CAR REPORT Gas Prices and Fuel Efficiency Affect the Market
Chintan Talati | Senior Director, Public Relations949.267.4855 | [email protected]
$14,000
$14,500
$15,000
$15,500
$16,000
$16,500
$17,000
$17,500
$18,000
$18,500
$19,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Auct
ion
Valu
es
Auction Values Begin Summer Decline
CY 2011 CY 2012 CY 2013
Source: Kelley Blue Book Automotive Insights
• Auctionvaluesdeclinedamodest1.2percentinJuneledbydeclinesinvaluesoffuel-efficientsmallcarsandalternativeenergyvehicles.
• Pickuptrucksremainhotandwereamongthebestperformingsegmentsoverallwithnearlynodepreciationforthemonth.
“Used-vehiclevaluesshouldcontinuetodeclineatapaceofnearly1percentpermonththroughsummer,thankstoimprovingsupplyconditionsatauctionandenticingfinanceandleaseoffersonnewscars,”saidAlecGutierrez,seniormarketanalyst,KelleyBlueBook.
CAREDITION
USED
Fuel Prices Remain Mostly Flat in May and June
$2.00
$2.50
$3.00
$3.50
$4.00
$4.50
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Fuel
Pric
es
Fuel Prices Remain Flat May-June
CY11 CY12 CY13
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration
• FuelpricesremainedmostlyflatthroughMayandearlyJunerelativetopreviousyearswherefuelpricedeclinesbeganinAprilandMay.Atthemoment,fuelpricesarealittlemorethan$0.10pergallonhigherthanduringthesametimelastyear.
“Weexpectalateseasonaltrendtotakeeffectstartingmid-June,whichwillbringfuelpricesdownslightlygoingintosummermonths,”saidGutierrez.“Withfuelpricesexpectedtoretreat,consumersshouldhavenotroublegettingagreatdealonausedcompactthissummer.”
2 BLUE BOOK Used-Car Market Report JUNE 2013
Compact Segment - Retained Value
• Inasegmentwherethereisfiercecompetitionamongcompetitors,the2012HyundaiVelosterstandsoutashavingthebestretainedvalueamongthecompactcarsegment.
“Theall-newfor2012Velostermaintainsthehighestretainedvaluewithinthecompactcarsegmentwithanimpressive82percentofitsMSRP,”saidGutierrez.“Theonlyothervehiclewithinthesegmenttoholdabove80percentofitsretainedvalueafteroneyearisthecompletelyredesignedfor2012SubaruImpreza.”
• ThoselookingforagreatdealmaywanttoconsidertheMazda3,ChevroletCruzeorFordFocus,eachofwhichareavailableforthefractionofabrandnewmodel.
$0
$2,000
$4,000
$6,000
$8,000
$10,000
$12,000
$14,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Auct
ion
Valu
es
Compact Segment Continues Steady Decline
CY 2011 CY 2012 CY 2013
Source: Kelley Blue Book Automotive Insights
• CompactsegmentvaluesremainedatasteadydeclinethroughoutMayandJune,maintainingasegmentaveragevalueslightlylowerthanin2012.
63.6%
65.5%
67.1%
67.3%
67.5%
69.0%
69.5%
72.5%
72.6%
80.8%
82.0%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Jetta
Focus
Cruze
MAZDA3
Corolla
Lancer
Segment Average
Elantra
Civic
Impreza
Veloster
MY1
2 Re
tain
ed V
alue
(Auc
tion
Valu
e/M
SRP)
Retained Value, Compact Segment
Source: Kelley Blue Book Automotive Insights
Consistent Declines in the Compact Segment
$9,125 $9,575 $9,772
$10,195 $10,350
$11,050 $11,065 $11,070 $11,196 $11,200 $11,234 $11,251 $11,439 $11,447
$11,846 $12,040 $12,223 $12,282 $12,329 $12,512 $12,807 $12,914
$14,342 $15,825
$17,050
$0 $5,000 $10,000 $15,000 $20,000
Chevrolet CobaltChrysler PT Cruiser
Nissan CubeChevrolet HHRNissan Sentra
Volkswagen BeetleScion xD
Mitsubishi LancerDodge CaliberToyota Matrix
Mazda Mazda3Ford Focus
Toyota CorollaKia Forte
Segment AverageHyundai Elantra
Volkswagen JettaScion xB
Subaru ImprezaHonda Civic
Chevrolet CruzeKia SoulScion tC
Hyundai VelosterBuick Verano
MY 2010-2012
Kelley Blue Book Auction Value as of June 14, 2013
Average Auction Value, Compact Segment
Source: Kelley Blue Book Automotive Insights
“Theaverageauctionvalueforvehicleswithinthecompactsegmentcomesinat$11,846with16vehiclesfallingwithinthe$11,000to$13,000range,”saidGutierrez.“Withsuchalargenumberofvehiclesfallingwithina$2,000range,itmakesthecompactsegmentoneofthemostcompetitivesegmentsinthemarket.”
• Valuesinthecompactsegmenthavebeennegativelyimpactedbyfallingfuelpricesaswellaslowleaseoffersonnewvehicles.
USED-CAR MARKET ANALYSIS:continued
3 BLUE BOOK Used-Car Market Report JUNE 2013
Imports Outperforming Most Full-Size Pickup Trucks in June
Mid-Size Pickup Trucks Trending Higher in 2013 Due to Diminished Supply
-0.8%
-0.6%
-0.3%
-0.3%
0.0%
0.0%
0.4%
0.5%
-1.0% -0.8% -0.6% -0.4% -0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.4% 0.6%
Avalanche
Ridgeline
Silverado
Sierra
F-Series
Ram Pickup
Titan
Tundra
Four-Week Auction Value Change (%)
June 14, 2013 vs. May 17, 2013 Source: Kelley Blue Book Automotive Insights
$11,000
$11,500
$12,000
$12,500
$13,000
$13,500
$14,000
$14,500
$15,000
$15,500
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Auct
ion
Valu
es
Mid-Size Trucks Trend Higher
CY 2011 CY 2012 CY 2013
Source: Kelley Blue Book Automotive Insights
• Bymid-June,auctionvaluesfortheToyotaTundraandNissanTitanwereup0.5percentand0.4percent,respectively,frommid-Mayvalues.
• InterestinuseddomestictrucksliketheGMCSierraandChevroletSilveradomaybewaningastheredesigned2014modelsbegintoshowupondealerlots.
• TheChevroletAvalanche,discontinuedaftermodel-year2013,wasthehardesthittruckinJune,dropping0.8percentmonth-over-month.
• Theaverageauctionvaluefor1-to3-year-oldmid-sizepickuptrucksrose0.3percentinJunefromMayvalues.
• ComparedtoJune2012,averageauctionvaluesforusedmid-sizetrucksinJune2013are$596or4.2percenthigher.
“Highervaluesin2013arelikelyduetotheendofproductionforseveralmodelsliketheFordRangerandRamDakota,decreasingtheoverallsupplyofusedmid-sizepickuptrucksinthemarket,”saidGutierrez.“Adecreasedsupplyalsogreatlyaffectstruckswithhigherauctionvalueretention,suchastheToyotaTacoma,byincreasingtheiraveragemarketvalue.”
• Duringthelastfourweeks,auctionvaluesof1-to3-year-oldminivansfell1.1percent,whichwasslightlybetterthanthemarketaverage,down1.3percent.
• Valuesforallvehiclesinthesegmenthavedropped,withtheexceptionoftheMazda5(0.5percentincrease).
• ThevolumeofMazda5attheauctionhasdecreasedcomparedtolastmonth(aswellaslastyear),whichmayaccountfortheincreaseinvalues.
• TheNissanQuestandVolkswagenRoutanhavehadthebiggestdecreases.Theauctionvalueshavedropped2.3percentand2.2percentrespectively.
• Minivanshaveseenmarketshareerodeasconsumershaveoptedforcompactcrossoversratherthanminivansduetobetteravailablefueleconomy.
Minivan Auction Values Drop During Last Four Weeks
-2.3%
-2.2%
-1.7%
-1.4%
-1.4%
-0.9%
-0.9%
-0.2%
0.5%
-2.5% -2.0% -1.5% -1.0% -0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0%
Quest
Routan
Odyssey
Town & Country
Sedona
Caravan
Ram Cargo Van
Sienna
Mazda5
Four-Week Auction Value Change (%) June 14, 2013 vs. May 17, 2013
Source: Kelley Blue Book Automotive Insights
USED-CAR MARKET ANALYSIS:continued
4 BLUE BOOK Used-Car Market Report JUNE 2013
SUV/Crossover Segment Declines in June
Mid-Size Vehicles Continue Decline in June
$11,000
$11,500
$12,000
$12,500
$13,000
$13,500
$14,000
$14,500
$15,000
Jan
Jan
Jan
Feb
Feb
Mar
Mar
Apr
Apr
May
May Jun
Jun Jul
Jul
Jul
Aug
Aug
Sep
Sep
Oct
Oct
Nov
Nov De
cDe
cDe
c
Auct
ion
Valu
es
Mid-Size Vehicles Continue Decline
CY 2011 CY 2012 CY 2013
Source: Kelley Blue Book Automotive Insights
• AllSUV/crossoversegmentsaredecreasinginJunewiththebiggestchangebeingincompactandluxurycompact.
• Withsomanyredesignedandall-newentrantsavailabletoconsumerssuchastheToyotaRAV4,HondaCR-V,FordEscapeandMazdaCX-5,itisonlynaturaltoseevaluesofpreviousgenerationmodelstakeahit.
• ThebiggestchangesaretheMazdaTribute(down8.5percent),MercuryMariner(down7.3percent),SuzukiGrandVitara(down5.7percent)andCadillacSRX(down5.7percent),whichareallinthecompact/luxurycompactcrossoversegment.
• Aswemoveintothesummermonths,KelleyBlueBookexpectsvaluestocontinuetodecline.
• Mid-sizesedansshouldendJunemorethan6percentbelowpricespaidlastyear.
• InJune,mid-sizesedansdeclinednearly3percent,aboutequalwiththeindustryleadingdepreciationseeninthesmallcarandaltenergysegments.
“Mid-sizesedanshaveseendownwardpricepressureasconsumershavebeenreluctanttopaytopdollarforthecurrentbatchoflate-modelpreviousgenerationofferingswhenthelatestgenerationnewalternativesareavailablewithaffordablefinanceratesandlowleaseoffersstartingwellbelow$300permonth,”saidGutierrez.
Segment 13-May 13-Jun % ChangeCompact Crossover $16,378 $15,877 -3.10%Mid-size SUV/Crossover $19,308 $19,190 -0.60%Full-Size SUV/Crossover $24,883 $24,675 -0.80%
Segment 13-May 13-Jun % ChangeLuxury Compact Crossover $27,987 $27,419 -2.00%Luxury Mid-size SUV/Crossover $34,486 $34,282 -0.60%Luxury Full-size SUV $35,991 $35,753 -0.70%
Source: Kelley Blue Book Automotive Insights
Full-Size Sedans Down Year-to-Date
$12,000
$12,500
$13,000
$13,500
$14,000
$14,500
$15,000
$15,500
$16,000
$16,500
$17,000
Jan
Jan
Jan
Feb
Feb
Mar
Mar
Apr
Apr
May
May Jun
Jun Jul
Jul
Jul
Aug
Aug
Sep
Sep
Oct
Oct
Nov
Nov De
cDe
cDe
c
Auct
ion
Valu
es
Full-Size Sedans Down YTD
CY 2011 CY 2012 CY 2013
Source: Kelley Blue Book Automotive Insights
• Valuesoflate-modelusedfull-sizesedanaretrendingnear5percentbelowlevelsseenatthistimelastyear.
• Usedfull-sizesedanshaveseenadeclineinterestasconsumershavegravitatedtowardsbetterequippedandmorefuel-efficientmid-sizesedansaswellasredesignedandsignificantlyimprovednewfull-sizeofferingssuchastheChevroletImpala,HyundaiAzeraandToyotaAvalon.
“Overall,thepeakoccurredearlyinAprilthisyearandthevalueshavebeenonadownwardslopesincethen,”saidGutierrez.“Theearlypeakandsubsequentdownturninsegmentvaluescanalsobeattributedtoajumpinoff-leaseinventoryhittingauctionsinrecentmonths.”
USED-CAR MARKET ANALYSIS:continued
5 BLUE BOOK Used-Car Market Report JUNE 2013
Luxury Values See Small Declines in JuneJun-13 May-13 % Chg
Entry-level Luxury Car $22,075 $22,230 -0.7%High-end Luxury Car $48,845 $49,655 -1.6%Luxury Car $30,522 $30,595 -0.2%Luxury Compact SUV/Crossover $27,419 $27,987 -2.0%Luxury Full-size SUV/Crossover $35,753 $35,991 -0.7%Luxury Mid-size SUV/Crossover $34,282 $34,486 -0.6%Average $28,411 $28,641 -0.8%
Source: Kelley Blue Book Automotive Insights
USED-CAR MARKET ANALYSIS:continued
• Auctionvaluesof1-to3-year-oldluxuryvehiclesfellnearly0.8percentinJune,outperformingtheoverallmarketaverageof1.3percent.DeclineswereatasimilarpaceasinMay2013.
• NoluxurysegmentappreciatedinJune,whilevaluesofcompactluxurySUV/Crossoversdroppedbyanaverageof2percent,themostofanyluxurysegment.
The statements set forth in this publication are the opinions of the authors and are subject to change without notice. This publication has been prepared for informational purposes only. Kelley Blue Book assumes no responsibility for errors or omissions.
“Throughthefirsthalfoftheyear,luxurydepreciationhasbeenrelativelymild,”saidGutierrez.“However,wemaybedueforacorrectionsoonasweheadintoJuly.InJuly2010,luxuryvaluesdropped1.5percent,whileinJuly2011,luxurycarsfell2.7percent.”
• Luxuryvaluestendtofallduringthesummermonthsinanticipationofthenewmodelyearchangeover,whichstartsinthelatesummer/earlyfalltimeframe.
Luxury Utility Vehicles Retaining Strong Values
59.4%
62.1%
62.5%
62.8%
67.3%
72.4%
72.4%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80%
High-end Luxury Car
Entry-level Luxury Car
Industry Average
Luxury Car
Luxury Full-sizeSUV/Crossover
Luxury CompactSUV/Crossover
Luxury Mid-sizeSUV/Crossover
MY1
0- 1
2 Re
tain
ed V
alue
(Auc
tion
Valu
e/M
SRP)
Luxury Utility Vehicles Retaining Value
Source: Kelley Blue Book Automotive Insights
• Compactandmid-sizeluxuryutilityvehiclesareleadingtheindustryintermsofretainedvalueofMSRPat72.4percent.Infact,fouroutofsixluxurysegmentshaveahigherretentionthantheindustryaverageof62.5percent,asoverall,theluxurymarketsitsat65.8percent.
• Audihastwoofthetopfiveluxurymodelswiththebestretainedvalue,theQ5andQ7.Itisworthytonotethatthetopfivemodelsareallcrossoverorsportutilityvehicles.
Model RetentionLand Rover LR4 83.6%Audi Q7 81.2%Porsche Cayenne 80.5%Audi Q5 79.3%BMW X3 77.6%* Only models with at least 3 model years includedSource: Kelley Blue Book Automotive Insights
6 BLUE BOOK Used-Car Market Report JUNE 2013
HOT USED-CAR REPORT:
Kelley Blue Book’s Hot Used-Car Report captures monthly used-car shopper activity on KBB.com, including a list of the top and bottom movers in the same time period. Results are provided by the Kelley Blue Book Market Intelligence Team, in an effort to help dealers better understand which used vehicles consumers are looking at most each month.
Gas Prices and Fuel Efficiency Affect the Market-ArthurHenry,managerofmarketintelligenceandmarketanalyst,KelleyBlueBook
• Thesegmentswiththegreatestincreaseinsharearethehybridcar,compactcrossoverandsubcompactcar.Thesearethetraditionalgassaversintheconsumermindsandtendtofluctuatewithgasprices.
• Gaspriceshavebeenrelativelystable,whichhasloweredthepricesonusedhybridcars.• The2011MitsubishiOutlanderSport,acompactcrossover,hasreceivedanincreaseinterestshortlyafterinformationwasreleasedontheredesigned
2014Outlander.
-66.2%
-56.3%
-24.1%
-23.7%
-23.3%
-21.6%
-16.4%
-15.1%
-8.6%
-7.0%
7.5%
7.6%
8.2%
13.0%
15.4%
17.2%
17.7%
25.2%
28.4%
32.5%
-200% -100% 0% 100% 200%
2009 VOLKSWAGEN GLI
2008 VOLVO V70
2010 NISSAN TITAN
2008 NISSAN QUEST
2011 MITSUBISHI ENDEAVOR
2009 FORD TAURUS
2011 MERCEDES-BENZ C-CLASS
2007 CHEVROLET AVALANCHE
2008 CHEVROLET SILVERADO 1500
2007 CHEVROLET SILVERADO 1500
2010 NISSAN ALTIMA
2011 TOYOTA CAMRY
2010 TOYOTA PRIUS
2008 TOYOTA CAMRY
2010 TOYOTA RAV4
2010 INFINITI G
2008 NISSAN SENTRA
2008 PORSCHE 911
2007 SAAB 9-3
2011 MITSUBISHI OUTLANDER SPORT
% Change in Share Month-Over-Month
Monthly Used-Car Shopping Activity Growth Top/Bottom 10 Models
Information based on 2011 to 2007 Model-Year Vehicles
-5.1% -4.1%
-3.1%
-2.7%
-2.1%
-1.9%
-1.7%
-1.3%
-1.1%
-1.0%
-0.7%
-0.6%
-0.2%
0.1%
0.5%
1.0%
1.8%
1.8%
2.0%
2.0%
2.7%
2.9%
4.1%
-20% -10% 0% 10% 20%
Premium Luxury Car
Full -Size Pickup Truck
Full -Size Car
Full -Size Sport Utility
Mid -Size Pickup Truck
Full -Size Crossover
Sports Car
Van
Mid -Size Sport Utility
Luxury Car
Mid -Size Crossover
Luxury Sport Utility
Compact Luxury Car
Minivan
Entry Luxury Car
Mid -Size Car
High Performance
Compact Car
Premium Sports Car
Luxury Crossover
Subcompact Car
Compact Crossover
Hybrid Car
% Change in Share Month-Over-Month
Monthly Used-Car Shopping Activity Growth Segments
Information based on 2011 to 2007 Model-Year Vehicles
About Kelley Blue Book (www.kbb.com)
Foundedin1926,KelleyBlueBook,TheTrustedResource®,istheonlyvehiclevaluationandinformationsourcetrustedandrelieduponbybothconsumersandtheindustry.Eachweekthecompanyprovidesthemostmarket-reflectivevaluesintheindustryonitstop-ratedwebsitewww.kbb.com,includingitsfamousBlueBook®Trade-InandSuggestedRetailValuesandFairPurchasePrice,whichreportswhatothersarepayingfornewcarsthisweek.Thecompanyalsoprovidesvehiclepricingandvaluesthroughvariousproductsandservicesavailabletocardealers,automanufacturers,financeandinsurancecompaniesaswellasgovernmentalagencies.KBB.comprovidesconsumerpricingandinformationoncarsforsale,minivans,pickuptrucks,sedan,hybrids,electriccars,andSUVs.KelleyBlueBookCo.,Inc.isawhollyownedsubsidiaryofAutoTraderGroup.