BLOOMBERG POLITICS/THE DES MOINES REGISTER IOWA POLL SELZER & COMPANY Study #2118 402 Republican likely caucusgoers May 25-29, 2015 Compared to 437 Democratic likely caucusgoers 4,161 contacts weighted by age, sex, and Margin of error: 4.9 percentage points for Republicans congressional district to conform to active voters Margin of error 4.7 percentage points for Democrats in the Iowa voter registration list

Methodology

May 30 (Bloomberg) The Iowa Poll, conducted May 25-29 for Bloomberg Politics and The Des Moines Register by Selzer & Co. of Des Moines, Iowa, is based on telephone interviews with 402 registered Iowa voters who say they definitely or probably will attend the 2016 Republican caucuses and 437 registered voters who say they definitely or probably will attend the 2016 Democratic caucuses. Interviewers contacted 4,161 randomly selected active voters from the Iowa secretary of states voter registration list by telephone. Responses were adjusted by age, sex, and congressional district to reflect all active voters in the voter registration list. Questions based on the subsample of 437 likely Democratic caucus attendees have a maximum margin of error of plus or minus 4.7 percentage points, and questions based on the subsample of 402 likely Republican caucus attendees have a maximum margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points. This means that if this survey were repeated using the same questions and the same methodology, 19 times out of 20, the findings would not vary from the percentages shown here by more than plus or minus 4.7 or 4.9 percentage points, respectively. Results based on smaller samples of respondentssuch as by gender or agehave a larger margin of error. Republishing the copyright Iowa Poll without credit to Bloomberg Politics and The Des Moines Register is prohibited.

Poll Questions

BASED ON REPUBLICAN CAUCUSGOERS

PERCENTAGES MAY NOT ADD TO 100% DUE TO ROUNDING.

Now, Im going to mention some people talked about as possible candidates for the Republican nomination for president. For each, please tell me if your feelings are very favorable, mostly favorable, mostly unfavorable, or very unfavorable. If you dont know enough about the person to answer, just say so. (Record dont know as not sure. Rotate list.)

Fav Unf

Very Favorable

Mostly Favorable

Mostly Unfavorable

Very Unfavorable

Not Sure

A. Jeb Bush, former governor of Florida May-15 43 45 11 32 27 18 13 Jan-15 46 43 17 29 25 18 11 Oct-14 50 28 9 41 19 9 22

B. Ben Carson, retired neurosurgeon from Maryland

May-15 56 15 24 32 10 5 29 Jan-15 50 12 28 22 9 3 38 Oct-14 41 8 24 17 4 4 51

C. Chris Christie, governor of New Jersey May-15 28 58 6 21 39 19 14 Jan-15 36 54 7 29 32 22 10 Oct-14 39 45 8 31 29 16 16

D. Ted Cruz, U.S. senator from Texas May-15 59 20 20 39 13 7 21 Jan-15 58 21 22 36 14 7 21 Oct-14 52 18 20 32 11 7 30

E. Carly Fiorina, former CEO of Hewlett-Packard and candidate for the U.S. Senate in California

May-15 41 19 13 27 12 8 40 Jan-15 15 19 4 11 13 6 66

F. Lindsey Graham, U.S. senator from South Carolina May-15 22

38 4 19 23 15 40

G. Mike Huckabee, former governor of Arkansas

May-15 61 30 21 40 21 9 9 Jan-15 66 28 28 38 21 7 6 Oct-14 59 30 23 36 23 7 11

H. Bobby Jindal, governor of Louisiana May-15 43 19 15 28 15 4 38 Jan-15 39 20 10 29 15 5 41 Oct-14 41 14 12 29 11 3 45

I. John Kasich, governor of Ohio May-15 25 16 7 18 11 4 59 Jan-15 22 14 7 15 10 4 64 Oct-14 17 7 3 14 5 2 76

J. George Pataki, former governor of New York May-15 10 35 1 9 22 13 55

K. Rand Paul, U.S. senator from Kentucky May-15 55 34 16 39 24 10 11 Jan-15 64 25 25 39 18 7 11 Oct-14 59 24 21 38 18 6 17

L. Rick Perry, former governor of Texas May-15 59 29 14 45 21 8 13 Jan-15 64 26 20 44 20 6 10 Oct-14 64 23 23 41 17 6 13

M. Marco Rubio, U.S. senator from Florida May-15 60 17 20 40 12 5 23 Jan-15 57 20 16 41 15 5 23 Oct-14 54 16 14 40 12 4 30

N. Rick Santorum, former U.S. senator from Pennsylvania

May-15 56 28 18 38 19 9 16 Jan-15 57 30 16 41 22 8 13 Oct-14 52 30 14 38 20 10 18

O. Donald Trump, businessman and television personality

May-15 27 63 7 20 31 33 10 Jan-15 26 68 4 22 36 32 6

P. Scott Walker, governor of Wisconsin May-15 66 11 31 35 5 6 23 Jan-15 60 12 32 28 6 6 28 Oct-14 49 10 20 29 7 3 41

Which one of the following Republicans would be your first choice for president? (Read list and rotate.) And who would your second choice be? (If Uncommitted or Not sure in first choice, code second choice as

No first choice and do not ask. Read list only if necessary.)

First Second Combined

Jeb Bush 9 7 16 Ben Carson 10 5 15 Chris Christie 4 4 8 Ted Cruz 5 8 13 Carly Fiorina 2 3 5 Lindsey Graham 1 1 2* Mike Huckabee 9 8 17* Bobby Jindal 1 4 5 John Kasich 2 1 3 George Pataki - 1 1 Rand Paul 10 5 15 Rick Perry 3 6 9 Marco Rubio 6 12 18 Rick Santorum 6 6 12 Donald Trump 4 2 6 Scott Walker 17 10 27 Uncommitted (VOLonly if respondent

says the word uncommitted.) 4 2 Not sure 7 5 No first choice n/a 11 *Combined does not match the following ever/never support question for certain candidates due to rounding.

See next page for tracking.

Which one of the following Republicans would be your first choice for president? (Read list and rotate.) And who would your second choice be? (If Uncommitted or Not sure in first choice, code second choice as

No first choice and do not ask. Read list only if necessary.)

First Second Combined

Jeb Bush May-15 9 7 16 Jan-15 8 7 15 Oct-14 4 8 12 Ben Carson May-15 10 5 15 Jan-15 9 10 19 Oct-14 11 7 18 Chris Christie May-15 4 4 8 Jan-15 4 3 7 Oct-14 6 5 11 Ted Cruz May-15 5 8 13 Jan-15 5 6 11 Oct-14 7 6 13 Carly Fiorina May-15 2 3 5 Jan-15 1 1 2 Lindsey Graham May-15 1 1 2* Mike Huckabee May-15 9 8 17* Jan-15 10 7 17 Oct-14 9 8 17 Bobby Jindal May-15 1 4 5 Jan-15 2 2 4 Oct-14 1 4 5 John Kasich May-15 2 1 3 Jan-15 1 1 2 Oct-14 1 - 1 George Pataki May-15 - 1 1 Rand Paul May-15 10 5 15 Jan-15 14 9 23 Oct-14 10 8 18 Rick Perry May-15 3 6 9 Jan-15 3 5 8 Oct-14 7 6 13 Marco Rubio May-15 6 12 18 Jan-15 3 8 11 Oct-14 2 3 5 Rick Santorum May-15 6 6 12 Jan-15 4 6 10 Oct-14 3 5 8 Donald Trump May-15 4 2 6 Jan-15 1 1 2 Scott Walker May-15 17 10 27 Jan-15 15 10 25 Oct-14 4 5 9 Uncommitted (VOLonly if respondent

says the word uncommitted.) May-15 4 2

Jan-15 2 1 Oct-14 1 - Not sure May-15 7 5 Jan-15 5 6 Oct-14 No first choice May-15 n/a 11 Jan-15 n/a 7 Oct-14 n/a 10 *Combined does not match the following ever/never support question for certain candidates due to rounding.

(Ask only for each candidate NOT answered in as first or second in horserace.] Im going to mention the candidates who are not your first or second choice. For each, please tell me if you think you could ever support the person for president or would never support the person for president. (Read appropriate names. Use same rotation as horserace question. If selected as first or second choice in horserace, code AC=4 and do not ask.)

Ever Never Not sure

1st or 2nd choice in horserace

A. Jeb Bush 38 35 10 16 B. Ben Carson 47 18 20 15 C. Chris Christie 34 45 13 8 D. Ted Cruz 49 21 18 13 E. Carly Fiorina 38 27 30 5 F. Lindsey Graham 29 43 25 3 G. Mike Huckabee 51 24 9 16 H. Bobby Jindal 45 25 25 5 I. John Kasich 29 28 40 3 J. George Pataki 20 41 38 1 K. Rand Paul 45 30 10 15 L. Rick Perry 54 27 10 9 M. Marco Rubio 49 18 15 18 N. Rick Santorum 51 26 11 12 O. Donald Trump 28 58 8 6 P. Scott Walker 41 15 17 27

For each of the following descriptions of Carly Fiorina, please tell me if this is something that is important to

you as you decide whether to support her or not. Just answer yes or no. (Rotate list.)

Important Not

important Not Sure

A. She has been the CEO of a Fortune 500 company, Hewlett-Packard 65 33 2 B. She is a Washington outsider 59 38 3 C. As CEO, she outsourced American jobs overseas 48 49 3 D. She is the only woman in the Republican field 26 71 3 E. She has never held elected office 39 59 2 F. She has taken on Hillary Clinton aggressively 72 26 2 G. As CEO, she laid off 30,000 employees 44 52 4 H. She was fired by Hewlett-Packard 27 70 3

Critics say President Obama was a first-term senator with no executive experience before he took office, and that explains many of the problems he has faced. Im going to mention Republican candidates who are first-term senators who have no executive experience. For each, tell me if that makes you less likely to support any of them in the nominating race or if it makes no difference in your support. (Rotate list.)

Less likely to

support No

difference Not sure

A. Ted Cruz 19 76 5 B. Rand Paul 22 72 5 C. Marco Rubio 16 79 5