bloodbath on d-street_ five reasons why sensex slumped by over 800 points - the economic times

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  • 11/02/2016 BloodbathonDStreet:FivereasonswhySensexslumpedbyover800pointsTheEconomicTimes

    http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/stocks/news/bloodbathondstreetfivereasonswhysensexslumpedbyover800points/articleshow/509 1/2

    Youarehere: ETHome Markets Stocks News

    ByECONOMICTIMES.COM|11Feb,2016,03.12PMIST PostaComment

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    BloodbathonDStreet:FivereasonswhySensexslumpedbyover800points

    NEWDELHI:TheS&PBSESensexplungedover800pointsinafternoontradeonThursdaytohititsfresh52weeklowof23,057.36,ledbylossesinrealty,power,bank,capitalgoods,consumerdurable,andmetalstocks.

    TheNifty50cameunderpressureinthelast11/2houroftrade,fallingover200pointstoregisteritsfresh52weeklowof7,003.75atthetimeoffilingofthereport.

    (Forminutebyminutemarket/stockupdates,followourTwitterhandle@ETMarkets)

    IfoneweretogobythebuzzonDalalStreet,hereiswhythemarkethascrashed.

    Bearhugtechnicalfactors:Thebenchmarkindicesaretradingwellbelowtheirsupportlevels.But,analystseefurtherdeclineinmarketswhichcouldtakeNifty50towards6,7006,800levels.TheNifty50appearstobeinthelastlegofsecondcorrectivestructurewhichisinprogresssinceAugust2015,sayexperts.

    InvestorscanlookatgoinglongifNifty50fallstowards67006800levels,becausethatiswhereaneartermbottomisplaced.

    "Basedonconventionaltechnicalanalysis,onlongtermcharts,strongsupportsareplacedaround6700levelswhereweexpectmarketstobottomout.Longtermstructurebasedonwavecountsisstillbullishlypoisedandhencewearecomfortableincreatinglongpositionsaround6700levels,"saidMazharMohammad,ChiefStrategistTechnicalResearch&TradingAdvisory,Chartviewindia.in

    "Rightnow,forNiftythislookslikeaworstcasescenariowheremarketsshouldbottomout.However,onmediumtermchartsreasonablesupportlevelsareplacedinthezoneof70976875,"headded.

    USFedcommentary:ThecommentaryfromUSFederalReserveJanetYellenissomethingwhichmighthavecaughtinvestorsbysurprise.Mostexpertswerepencillinginaratehikeby2017amidslowdowninglobalgrowth,glutincrude,andChinajitters.

    FederalReserveChairJanetYellentestifiedbeforetheHouseFinancialServicesCommitteeWednesday.ShesaidthattheFederalReserveisunlikelytoreverseitsplantoraiseinterestratesfurtherthisyear.

    However,shehighlightedinherstatementthatvolatilefinancialmarketsacrosstheglobe,tighterliquidityanduncertaintyoverChineseeconomicgrowthhaveraisedriskstotheU.S.economy.

    "ThiswasacredibleretracementinourviewandIthinkthatthetwopointsweshouldkeepinmindwasthatJanetYellenquiteexpressivelysaidthattheturmoilinthefinancialmarketsaswellaswhatisgoingoninChinadoesthreatenthegrowthoutlookfortheUS,"saidSanjayMathur,SeniorEconomist,RBS.

    "Thesecondpointshesaidwasthatfearsofeconomicslowdownarenotfeedingintoassetpricesandtosomeextentsheistryingtopointtothefactthatnegativewealthaffectscouldhaveabearingontheeconomy,"headded.

    "Netnetwhenwelookatit,itisgettinghardandharderfortheFedtojointhefourdotsthattheyhadsortofpredictedinDecemberandyoucanseethatinthemarketaswell,"saidMathur.

    Fallincrudeoilprices:CrudeoilpriceshavebeeninadownwardspiralsinceJulyof2014.ThebenchmarkBrentcrudepricesinLondonhavecrashedfrom$106inJuly,2014to$30today,adropofover70percent.

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  • 11/02/2016 BloodbathonDStreet:FivereasonswhySensexslumpedbyover800pointsTheEconomicTimes

    http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/stocks/news/bloodbathondstreetfivereasonswhysensexslumpedbyover800points/articleshow/509 2/2

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    UScrudetumbledbelow$27abarrelinAsiatodayastheoversaturatedmarketstruggledtocopewithhighinventoriesintheUnitedStatesandanincreasedoutputfromOpec,saidamediareport.BrentcrudeforAprilfellto$30.52abarrel

    ThedeclinecamedespitetheweeklyUSDepartmentofEnergyreportshowingUSoilstocksfellabout800,000barrelsfortheweekendingFebruary5,withtradersseeinginventoriesstillathighlevels.

    "Whatweareexperiencingintheglobalmarketislargeramountofpressurecomingupfromtheredemptionandthisredemptionpressureisduetothecollateraldamageaidedbyfallincrudeandcommodityprices,"saidDevenChoksey,MD,KRChokseyInvestmentManagers.

    "IfthispressuresubsidesandifthispressurecomesdownthenIdonotthinkthatthemarketwouldgodowninhurryorprobablygodownbadly,"headded.

    RiseinNPAleadsspooksbanks:Thefallintheindexwasledlargelybybankingsector.MostofthePSUbankshavereportedover40percentjumpinprovisionsrequirement.Asmuchas85percentofthebankingsystem'sweakassetsareinthebooksofpublicsectorbanks(PSBs).Increasingstressisalsovisibleinthequantumofstrategicdebtrestructuringand5/25structuringbeingcarriedoutbybanks.

    Crisilbelievesintensifyingassetqualityproblemsatpublicsectorbanks(PSBs)havethepotentialtoimpairtheircreditriskprofilesandnecessitatesignificantlyhighercapitalisationofPSBseitherthroughgovernmentinfusionorrelaxationofregulatorycapitalnorms.

    "Overthepast18months,Crisilhaseitherdowngradedorreviseditsoutlookto'Negative'onnineoutofthe25PSBsthatitratesonthebackofexpectationsofworseningassetquality,"saidthereport.

    Disappointingearnings:DecemberquarterresultsforIndiaInchavefailedtoimpressDalalStreetatlargeandifearningsdon'tpickupthereisnocaseofabullmarket,sayexperts."Bullmarketsnormallycomewithearningsgrowth.Butifthisisabullmarketcorrection,thenthisisthefirstbullmarketwhichisnotcomingwithearningsgrowth,"saidSridharSivaram,InvestorDirector,EnamHoldings.

    "Allbullmarketscomewithearningsgrowth.Bullmarketsnormallycomewithearningsgrowth.But,thishastobetheonlybullmarketwhichcomeswithearningssortofdowngradesthroughout,"headded.Thishastobetheonlybullmarketifthisisabullmarketwhichcomeswithearningssortofdowngradesthroughout.

    IfglobaleconomyisgoingthroughastructuralchangeIndiaInc.mightnotbeabletopickthepaceasforecastedbyvariousanalysts.Themarketdoeslookattractiveatcurrentlevels,butwithnoearningsgrowth,marketswillnotpickpace.SivaramisoftheviewthatIdon'tseeearningscomingbackinahurry.Thenextyearconsensusnumberevennowiscloserto18%,andIcannotseethathappening."Wewillcloseto10%,"headded.

    "Wewillcontinuetoseeearningsdowngrade.Wecouldhaveanothersharpcorrectionfromcurrentlevels,andIdonotseethemarketsmovingsubstantiallyupformhere,"headded.

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