black knight, inc. - mortgage monitor · 2020. 10. 30. · dataset, the black knight hpi and the...

22
SEPTEMBER 2020 REPORT MORTGAGE MONITOR

Upload: others

Post on 28-Jan-2021

24 views

Category:

Documents


0 download

TRANSCRIPT

  • SEPTEMBER 2020 REPORT

    MORTGAGE MONITOR

    https://www.blackknightinc.com/data-reports/?report-type=mortgage-monitor&reporthttps://www.blackknightinc.com/

  • Confidential, Proprietary and/or Trade Secret TM SM ® Trademark(s) of Black Knight IP Holding Company, LLC, and/or an affiliate. © 2020 Black Knight Financial Technology Solutions, LLC. All Rights Reserved.

    MORTGAGE MONITOR

    SEPTEMBER 2020 | 2Confidential, Proprietary and/or Trade Secret TM SM ® Trademark(s) of Black Knight IP Holding Company, LLC, and/or an affiliate. © 2020 Black Knight Financial Technology Solutions, LLC. All Rights Reserved.

    Each month, the Black Knight Mortgage Monitor looks at a variety of issues related to the mortgage finance and housing industries.

    This month, as always, we begin with a review of some of the high-level mortgage performance statistics reported in our most recent First Look report, with an update on delinquency, foreclosure and prepayment trends. From there we dive deeper into September’s mortgage performance data, as well as payment and forbearance trends.

    Thanks to record low interest rates, we are also seeing records being set for quarterly purchase, refinance and total lending volumes. Using data from Black Knight’s Compass Analytics group, we examine what these factors mean for the market as we close out 2020. We also leverage daily home price data from our Collateral Analytics division to look at how extremely low inventory, an outsized demand for larger homes in less dense areas and increased affordability have pushed home price growth to its highest point since 2005.

    In producing the Mortgage Monitor, Black Knight’s Data & Analytics division aggregates, analyzes and reports upon the most recently available data from the company’s vast mortgage and housing related data assets. Information is gathered from the McDash loan-level mortgage performance dataset, the Black Knight HPI and the company’s robust public property records database covering 99.9% of the U.S. population. For more information on gaining access to Black Knight’s data assets, please call 844-474-2537 or email [email protected].

    SEPTEMBER 2020 OVERVIEW

    MORTGAGE MONITOR

    SEPTEMBER FIRST LOOK RELEASE

    SEPTEMBER PERFORMANCE HIGHLIGHTS

    FORBEARANCE ACTIVITY UPDATE

    REFINANCE CANDIDATE & RATE LOCK VOLUMES

    APPENDIX

    DISCLOSURES

    DEFINITIONS

    3

    4

    9

    14

    18

    21

    22

    CONTENTS

    https://www.blackknightinc.com/https://www.blackknightinc.com/data-reports/?report-type=mortgage-monitor&reporthttps://www.blackknightinc.com/https://www.blackknightinc.com/black-knights-first-look-at-september-2020-mortgage-data/https://www.blackknightinc.com/what-we-do/data-services/https://www.blackknightinc.com/what-we-do/data-services/mailto:mortgage.monitor%40bkfs.com?subject=https://twitter.com/black_knightinc?lang=enhttps://www.linkedin.com/company/blackknight/https://www.blackknightinc.com/data-reports/?report-type=mortgage-monitor&report

  • Confidential, Proprietary and/or Trade Secret TM SM ® Trademark(s) of Black Knight IP Holding Company, LLC, and/or an affiliate. © 2020 Black Knight Financial Technology Solutions, LLC. All Rights Reserved.

    MORTGAGE MONITOR

    SEPTEMBER 2020 | 3

    Here we have an overview of findings from Black Knight’s ‘First Look’ at September mortgage performance data. This information has been compiled from Black Knight’s McDash loan-level mortgage performance database. You may click on each chart to see its contents in high-resolution.

    There are now just 821K mortgage-holders that are a single month behind on payments, down nearly 20% from pre-pandemic levels, and the lowest such volume on record dating back to 2000.

    SEPTEMBER OVERVIEW STATS

    CHANGE IN DELINQUENCY RATE

    Early-stage delinquencies continue to show strong performance

    The level of all delinquencies less than 90 days past due has now

    returned to pre-pandemic levels

    SERIOUS DELINQUENCIES

    Serious delinquencies improved for the first time since the start of

    the COVID-19 pandemic

    More than 2.3M homeowners – 5x times the number entering 2020 – remain 90 or more

    days past due, but not in foreclosure

    PREPAYMENT RATE

    Prepayment activity jumped above 3% for the first time in more than 16 years

    Month-over-month, we saw a 12.70% increase in the monthly prepayment rate

    3.10% -43K 12.70%

    SEPTEMBER 2020 FIRST LOOK RELEASE

    https://www.blackknightinc.com/https://www.blackknightinc.com/data-reports/?report-type=mortgage-monitor&reporthttps://www.blackknightinc.com/black-knights-first-look-at-september-2020-mortgage-data/https://www.blackknightinc.com/black-knights-first-look-at-september-2020-mortgage-data/https://www.blackknightinc.com/what-we-do/data-services/https://www.blackknightinc.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/BKI_MM_Sep2020_Chart01.pdf

  • Confidential, Proprietary and/or Trade Secret TM SM ® Trademark(s) of Black Knight IP Holding Company, LLC, and/or an affiliate. © 2020 Black Knight Financial Technology Solutions, LLC. All Rights Reserved.

    MORTGAGE MONITOR

    SEPTEMBER 2020 | 4

    Confidential, Proprietary and/or Trade SecretTM SM ® Trademark(s) of Black Knight IP Holding Company, LLC, or an affiliate.

    © 2019 Black Knight Data Analytics, LLC. All Rights Reserved. Page 1 of 1

    0

    500,000

    1,000,000

    1,500,000

    2,000,000

    2,500,000

    3,000,000

    3,500,000

    4,000,000

    4,500,000

    2019

    -07

    2019

    -08

    2019

    -09

    2019

    -10

    2019

    -11

    2019

    -12

    2020

    -01

    2020

    -02

    2020

    -03

    2020

    -04

    2020

    -05

    2020

    -06

    2020

    -07

    2020

    -08

    2020

    -09

    MORTGAGE DELINQUENCIES BY SEVERITY30 Days DQ 60 Days DQ 90+ Days DQ Total Delinquent

    Source: McDash

    Here we take a detailed look at September mortgage performance data as well as payment and forbearance trends. This information has been compiled from Black Knight’s original McDash loan-level mortgage performance database as well as the new, daily McDash Flash data set. You may click on each chart to see its contents in high-resolution.

    SEPTEMBER 2020 PERFORMANCE HIGHLIGHTS

    » After peaking in May, delinquencies have now fallen by more than 14% (-582K) over the past four months

    » As of September month-end, some 3.54M (6.66%) borrowers remain past due but not yet in foreclosure, down from 3.68M (6.88%) the month prior

    » September also marked the first improvement in serious delinquencies (90+ days past due) since the start of the pandemic, which fell from 2.37M to 2.32M

    » Still, 4.4% of mortgage-holders remain seriously delinquent on their mortgages, more than 5.5X (+1.9M) than the share six months ago

    » Despite serious delinquencies remaining significantly elevated, early-stage delinquencies have shown strong improvement

    6.66%

    4.66%

    2.00%

    3.00%

    4.00%

    5.00%

    6.00%

    7.00%

    8.00%

    9.00%

    10.00%

    11.00%

    2000

    -09

    2001

    -09

    2002

    -09

    2003

    -09

    2004

    -09

    2005

    -09

    2006

    -09

    2007

    -09

    2008

    -09

    2009

    -09

    2010

    -09

    2011

    -09

    2012

    -09

    2013

    -09

    2014

    -09

    2015

    -09

    2016

    -09

    2017

    -09

    2018

    -09

    2019

    -09

    2020

    -09

    NATIONAL DELINQUENCY RATE – FIRST LIEN MORTGAGESDelinquency Rate 2000-2005 Average Record Low

    Source: McDash

    NATIONAL DELINQUENCY RATE – FIRST LIEN MORTGAGES MORTGAGE DELINQUENCIES BY SEVERITY

    Source: McDashSource: McDash

    https://www.blackknightinc.com/https://www.blackknightinc.com/data-reports/?report-type=mortgage-monitor&reporthttps://www.blackknightinc.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/BKI_MM_Sep2020_Chart03.pdfhttps://www.blackknightinc.com/what-we-do/data-services/https://www.blackknightinc.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/BKI_MM_Sep2020_Chart02.pdf

  • Confidential, Proprietary and/or Trade Secret TM SM ® Trademark(s) of Black Knight IP Holding Company, LLC, and/or an affiliate. © 2020 Black Knight Financial Technology Solutions, LLC. All Rights Reserved.

    MORTGAGE MONITOR

    SEPTEMBER 2020 | 5

    SEPTEMBER 2020 PERFORMANCE HIGHLIGHTS

    » Rolls from current to 30-days delinquent (i.e. new delinquencies) fell below pre-pandemic levels for the first time in September, while rolls to later stages of delinquency also improved

    » An estimated 409K homeowners who were current on their mortgage in August became 30 days delinquent in September, the lowest such volume since January

    » This is also 6% below the volume at the same time last year, suggesting the inflow of new delinquencies has normalized, at least for now

    » Cure activity also increased in September, with 502K borrowers who were delinquent in August becoming current on their mortgage

    » This marks a 19% increase in overall cure activity from the month prior, which may have been aided by the large volume of forbearance plans that were set to expire in September

    Confidential, Proprietary and/or Trade SecretTM SM ® Trademark(s) of Black Knight IP Holding Company, LLC, or an affiliate.

    © 2019 Black Knight Data Analytics, LLC. All Rights Reserved. Page 1 of 1

    0

    500,000

    1,000,000

    1,500,000

    2,000,000

    2019

    -01

    2019

    -02

    2019

    -03

    2019

    -04

    2019

    -05

    2019

    -06

    2019

    -07

    2019

    -08

    2019

    -09

    2019

    -10

    2019

    -11

    2019

    -12

    2020

    -01

    2020

    -02

    2020

    -03

    2020

    -04

    2020

    -05

    2020

    -06

    2020

    -07

    2020

    -08

    2020

    -09

    LOANS ROLLING TO A MORE DELINQUENT STATUSCurrent to 30 Days DQ 30 to 60 Days DQ 60 to 90 Days DQ

    Source: McDash

    Confidential, Proprietary and/or Trade SecretTM SM ® Trademark(s) of Black Knight IP Holding Company, LLC, or an affiliate.

    © 2019 Black Knight Data Analytics, LLC. All Rights Reserved. Page 1 of 1

    0

    100,000

    200,000

    300,000

    400,000

    500,000

    600,000

    700,000

    800,000

    2019

    -01

    2019

    -02

    2019

    -03

    2019

    -04

    2019

    -05

    2019

    -06

    2019

    -07

    2019

    -08

    2019

    -09

    2019

    -10

    2019

    -11

    2019

    -12

    2020

    -01

    2020

    -02

    2020

    -03

    2020

    -04

    2020

    -05

    2020

    -06

    2020

    -07

    2020

    -08

    2020

    -09

    CURES TO CURRENT BY PREVIOUS DQ BUCKETCures from 30/60 Days DQ Cures from 90+ Days DQ Total Cures

    Source: McDash

    LOANS ROLLING TO A MORE DELINQUENT STATUS CURES TO CURRENT BY PREVIOUS DQ BUCKET

    Source: McDashSource: McDash

    https://www.blackknightinc.com/https://www.blackknightinc.com/data-reports/?report-type=mortgage-monitor&reporthttps://www.blackknightinc.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/BKI_MM_Sep2020_Chart04.pdfhttps://www.blackknightinc.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/BKI_MM_Sep2020_Chart05.pdf

  • Confidential, Proprietary and/or Trade Secret TM SM ® Trademark(s) of Black Knight IP Holding Company, LLC, and/or an affiliate. © 2020 Black Knight Financial Technology Solutions, LLC. All Rights Reserved.

    MORTGAGE MONITOR

    SEPTEMBER 2020 | 6

    SEPTEMBER 2020 PERFORMANCE HIGHLIGHTS

    » While the number of borrowers who missed one or two payments set new record highs early in 2020 due to the rapid onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, the volume of such early-stage delinquencies has quickly normalized

    » As discussed earlier in the report, the most acute impact of COVID-19 currently lies in the 90+ day past due population, which peaked at 2.37M in August, and has pulled back slightly to 2.32M as of September

    » Widespread foreclosure moratoriums have kept borrowers who might otherwise face foreclosure proceedings in a 90-day delinquency status

    » While COVID-19 pushed 90-day delinquencies to within 20% of their Great Recession peak, combined seriously delinquent and active foreclosure volumes have remained at less than half of their 2010 peak

    While we’re certainly not out of the woods in terms of COVID-19’s impact on the mortgage market, most major metrics still remain well below the levels reached during the last recession

    MetricCurrent

    (Sept 2020)COVID-19

    Peak*Great Recession

    Peak30 Days DQ 821,000 2,511,000 2,214,000 +297,000 +13%60 Days DQ 397,000 1,734,000 957,000 +777,000 +81%90+ Days DQ 2,323,000 2,366,000 2,973,000 -607,000 -20%Active Foreclosure 181,000 220,000 2,296,000 -2,076,000 -90%90+ Days or FC 2,504,000 2,553,000 5,042,000 -2,489,000 -49%Total Delinquent 3,542,000 4,123,000 5,822,000 -1,699,000 -29%Total Non-Current 3,722,000 4,324,000 7,891,000 -3,567,000 -45%DQ% 6.7% 7.8% 10.6% -2.8% -27%Foreclosure% 0.3% 0.4% 4.3% -3.9% -90%Non Current% 7.0% 8.1% 14.3% -6.2% -43%

    COVID-19 Peak* vs. Great Recession Peak

    Source: McDash*Through September 2020

    Source: McDash*Through September 2020

    https://www.blackknightinc.com/https://www.blackknightinc.com/data-reports/?report-type=mortgage-monitor&reporthttps://www.blackknightinc.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/BKI_MM_Sep2020_Chart06.pdf

  • Confidential, Proprietary and/or Trade Secret TM SM ® Trademark(s) of Black Knight IP Holding Company, LLC, and/or an affiliate. © 2020 Black Knight Financial Technology Solutions, LLC. All Rights Reserved.

    MORTGAGE MONITOR

    SEPTEMBER 2020 | 7

    SEPTEMBER 2020 PERFORMANCE HIGHLIGHTS

    » September’s 3% decline in the national delinquency rate was roughly on par with the market’s average in the first three months of the recovery

    » Based on the rate of improvement so far, the national delinquency rate would remain above pre-pandemic levels for another 18 months (24 months total) through Q1 2022

    » While seriously delinquent rates typically peak three to four months following a natural disaster, they appear to have peaked – at least for now – in month five following the onset of COVID-19

    » The delayed peak may be a result of widespread forbearance plans, which provide borrowers additional time to stabilize their financial situations before returning to making mortgage payments

    » While the initial peak of delinquencies has closely mirrored that of natural disasters, the current rate of improvement suggests an elongated recovery timeline

    » At the current rate of improvement, the national delinquency rate would remain elevated by two full percentage points (+1.1M delinquencies) in March 2021, when the first wave of COVID-19 forbearances reach their 12-month expiration period

    -1%

    0%

    +1%

    +2%

    +3%

    +4%

    +5%

    +6%

    -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24Number of Months Since Event

    DELINQUENCY RATE FOLLOWING NATURAL DISASTERS(DIFFERENCE IN DELINQUENCY RATE VS. 1-MONTH PRIOR TO THE EVENT)

    Hurricane Harvey (2017) Hurricane Irma (2017) COVID-19

    EXAMPLE SCENARIO:Based on 4-Month Average

    Rate of Improvement

    Source: McDash

    -0.5%

    0.0%

    +0.5%

    +1.0%

    +1.5%

    +2.0%

    +2.5%

    +3.0%

    +3.5%

    +4.0%

    -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18Number of Months Since Event

    90+ DAY DQ RATE FOLLOWING NATURAL DISASTERS(DIFFERENCE IN 90+ DAY DQ RATE VS. 1-MONTH PRIOR TO THE EVENT)

    Hurricane Harvey (2017) Hurricane Irma (2017) COVID-19

    Source: McDash

    Source: McDashSource: McDash

    DELINQUENCY RATE FOLLOWING NATURAL DISASTERS(DIFFERENCE IN DELINQUENCY RATE VS. 1-MONTH PRIOR TO THE EVENT)

    90+ DAY DQ RATE FOLLOWING NATURAL DISASTERS(DIFFERENCE IN 90+ DAY DQ RATE VS. 1-MONTH PRIOR TO THE EVENT)

    https://www.blackknightinc.com/https://www.blackknightinc.com/data-reports/?report-type=mortgage-monitor&reporthttps://www.blackknightinc.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/BKI_MM_Sep2020_Chart07.pdfhttps://www.blackknightinc.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/BKI_MM_Sep2020_Chart08.pdf

  • Confidential, Proprietary and/or Trade Secret TM SM ® Trademark(s) of Black Knight IP Holding Company, LLC, and/or an affiliate. © 2020 Black Knight Financial Technology Solutions, LLC. All Rights Reserved.

    MORTGAGE MONITOR

    SEPTEMBER 2020 | 8

    SEPTEMBER 2020 PERFORMANCE HIGHLIGHTS

    » October historically sees better-than-average mortgage performance, with delinquencies typically falling by a little over 2% in the month over the past 20 years

    » Early signs from McDash Flash suggest that trend could continue, with mortgage payment activity through October 16 above that of the past five months

    » As of October 16, some 87.3% of borrowers had made their mortgage payment, up from 86.7% the month prior

    » If that trend continues throughout the remainder of the month, we could see yet another decline in the national delinquency rate when October month-end data is reported

    40%

    50%

    60%

    70%

    80%

    90%

    100%

    1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30Day of Month

    CUMULATIVE SHARE OF MORTGAGE PAYMENTS RECEIVEDJune 2020 July 2020 Aug 2020 Sept 2020 Oct 2020

    Source: McDash Flash Payment Tracker

    76656554443332

    84.0%

    85.4%

    86.1%86.7% 86.7%

    87.3%

    80%

    81%

    82%

    83%

    84%

    85%

    86%

    87%

    88%

    May 2020 June 2020 July 2020 Aug 2020 Sept 2020 Oct 2020

    SHARE OF MORTGAGE PAYMENTS RECEIVEDTHROUGH THE 16TH DAY OF EACH MONTH

    Source: McDash Flash Payment Tracker

    CUMULATIVE SHARE OF MORTGAGE PAYMENTS RECEIVEDSHARE OF MORTGAGE PAYMENTS RECEIVEDTHROUGH THE 16TH DAY OF EACH MONTH

    Source: McDash Flash Payment TrackerSource: McDash Flash Payment Tracker

    https://www.blackknightinc.com/https://www.blackknightinc.com/data-reports/?report-type=mortgage-monitor&reporthttps://www.blackknightinc.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/BKI_MM_Sep2020_Chart09.pdfhttps://www.blackknightinc.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/BKI_MM_Sep2020_Chart10.pdf

  • Confidential, Proprietary and/or Trade Secret TM SM ® Trademark(s) of Black Knight IP Holding Company, LLC, and/or an affiliate. © 2020 Black Knight Financial Technology Solutions, LLC. All Rights Reserved.

    MORTGAGE MONITOR

    SEPTEMBER 2020 | 9

    0

    200,000

    400,000

    600,000

    800,000

    1,000,000

    1,200,000

    1,400,000

    1,600,000

    3/24/20

    3/31/204/7/20

    4/14/20

    4/21/20

    4/28/205/5/20

    5/12/20

    5/19/20

    5/26/206/2/206/9/20

    6/16/20

    6/23/20

    6/30/207/7/20

    7/14/20

    7/21/20

    7/28/208/4/20

    8/11/20

    8/18/20

    8/25/209/1/209/8/20

    9/15/20

    9/22/20

    9/29/20

    10/6/20

    10/13/20

    10/20/20

    Week Ending

    NEW FORBEARANCE PLANS – BY WEEK

    Source: McDash Flash

    Here we take a closer look at active forbearance volumes, along with recent forbearance start, removal and extension activity. We also look at the current performance of borrowers who have exited forbearance. This information has been compiled from Black Knight’s original McDash loan-level mortgage performance database as well as the new, daily McDash Flash data set. You may click on each chart to see its contents in high-resolution.

    SEPTEMBER 2020 FORBEARANCE ACTIVITY UPDATE

    » Forbearance plans declined by nearly 650K (-18%) in the first week of October as the first wave of forbearance plans hit their six-month term

    » As of October 20, there were just under 3M active forbearance plans remaining, which marks the first time we’ve crossed that threshold since mid-April

    » Declines were seen across all investor classes, but the strongest were among loans held in portfolios and private securities, which are down 21% from the month prior

    » Forbearance plans among GSE loans were down 18% and plans among FHA/VA loans saw a more modest decline of 14%

    » A 20% increase in forbearance start activity in early October suggests that servicers may not have been able to reach a subset of borrowers to confirm an extension request

    » This increase is primarily driven by starts among borrowers who had already been in forbearance programs; such repeat starts are up 80% from the month prior, while new first-time plan starts are actually down 7% from September

    » This suggests that some borrowers who had not been in contact with their servicers before the September 30th cutoff may have reached out early in October to continue their forbearance plans

    -

    500,000

    1,000,000

    1,500,000

    2,000,000

    2,500,000

    3,000,000

    3,500,000

    4,000,000

    4,500,000

    5,000,000

    Mar

    -24

    Mar

    -31

    Apr-

    07

    Apr-

    14

    Apr-

    21

    Apr-

    28

    May

    -05

    May

    -12

    May

    -19

    May

    -26

    Jun-

    02

    Jun-

    09

    Jun-

    16

    Jun-

    23

    Jun-

    30

    Jul-0

    7

    Jul-1

    4

    Jul-2

    1

    Jul-2

    8

    Aug-

    04

    Aug-

    11

    Aug-

    18

    Aug-

    25

    Sep-

    01

    Sep-

    08

    Sep-

    15

    Sep-

    22

    Sep-

    29

    Oct

    -06

    Oct

    -13

    Oct

    -20

    ACTIVE FORBEARANCE PLANS Fannie/Freddie FHA/VA Other Total

    Source: McDash Flash

    ACTIVE FORBEARANCE PLANSNEW FORBEARANCE PLANS – BY WEEK

    Source: McDash FlashSource: McDash Flash

    https://www.blackknightinc.com/https://www.blackknightinc.com/data-reports/?report-type=mortgage-monitor&reporthttps://www.blackknightinc.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/BKI_MM_Sep2020_Chart12.pdfhttps://www.blackknightinc.com/what-we-do/data-services/https://www.blackknightinc.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/BKI_MM_Sep2020_Chart11.pdf

  • Confidential, Proprietary and/or Trade Secret TM SM ® Trademark(s) of Black Knight IP Holding Company, LLC, and/or an affiliate. © 2020 Black Knight Financial Technology Solutions, LLC. All Rights Reserved.

    MORTGAGE MONITOR

    SEPTEMBER 2020 | 10

    SEPTEMBER 2020 FORBEARANCE ACTIVITY UPDATE

    » October’s sharp decline in forbearances was largely driven by the spike in removals in the first week of the month

    » More than 750K borrowers left their forbearance plans in the first week of October, driven in large part by plans that were scheduled to expire in September

    » Most of the extension activity took place earlier in September, as servicers proactively worked their way through the 2M plans set to expire in the month

    » Entering October, another 700K plans were set to expire in the month, suggesting we could see less overall extension/removal activity in late October and early November

    » The next, more moderate, wave of expirations is slated for December, when the initial wave of forbearances will hit their nine-month mark

    » More than 1M of the remaining 3M active forbearances are currently scheduled to expire in December

    0

    100,000

    200,000

    300,000

    400,000

    500,000

    600,000

    700,000

    800,000

    900,000

    3/24/2

    0

    3/31/2

    04/7

    /20

    4/14/2

    0

    4/21/2

    0

    4/28/2

    05/5

    /20

    5/12/2

    0

    5/19/2

    0

    5/26/2

    06/2

    /206/9

    /20

    6/16/2

    0

    6/23/2

    0

    6/30/2

    07/7

    /20

    7/14/2

    0

    7/21/2

    0

    7/28/2

    08/4

    /20

    8/11/2

    0

    8/18/2

    0

    8/25/2

    09/1

    /209/8

    /20

    9/15/2

    0

    9/22/2

    0

    9/29/2

    0

    10/6/

    20

    10/13

    /20

    10/20

    /20

    Week Ending

    FORBEARANCE PLAN EXTENSIONS & REMOVALS – BY WEEKForbearance Plan Removals Forbearance Plan Extensions

    Source: McDash Flash

    0

    500,000

    1,000,000

    1,500,000

    2,000,000

    2,500,000

    3,000,000

    Jun-

    2020

    Jul-2

    020

    Aug

    -202

    0

    Sep

    -202

    0

    Oct

    -202

    0

    Nov

    -202

    0

    Dec

    -202

    0

    Jan-

    2021

    Feb-

    2021

    Mar

    -202

    1

    SCHEDULED FORBEARANCE EXPIRATIONS(LAST MONTH COVERED UNDER FORBEARANCE PLAN)

    Entering June Entering September Entering October

    Source: McDash Flash

    FORBEARANCE PLAN EXTENSIONS & REMOVALS – BY WEEK

    Source: McDash FlashSource: McDash Flash

    SCHEDULED FORBEARANCE EXPIRATIONS(LAST MONTH COVERED UNDER FORBEARANCE PLAN)

    https://www.blackknightinc.com/https://www.blackknightinc.com/data-reports/?report-type=mortgage-monitor&reporthttps://www.blackknightinc.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/BKI_MM_Sep2020_Chart13.pdfhttps://www.blackknightinc.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/BKI_MM_Sep2020_Chart14.pdf

  • Confidential, Proprietary and/or Trade Secret TM SM ® Trademark(s) of Black Knight IP Holding Company, LLC, and/or an affiliate. © 2020 Black Knight Financial Technology Solutions, LLC. All Rights Reserved.

    MORTGAGE MONITOR

    SEPTEMBER 2020 | 11

    SEPTEMBER 2020 FORBEARANCE ACTIVITY UPDATE

    » More than 6.3M borrowers have entered COVID-19-related forbearance plans over the past seven months, over half of whom have since exited their plans

    » As of October 20, 53% of borrowers once in COVID-19-related plans have since exited

    » Of these, 36% are now performing on their mortgages; an additional 8% have paid off their mortgages in full through the refinance or sale of their homes

    » 8% of borrowers who have been in COVID-19 forbearance plans have exited but are currently working through loss mitigation options with their servicers

    » 1% (80K) are past due, not in forbearance, and not currently pursuing loss mitigation

    » Of the nearly 3M borrowers remaining in forbearance, 2.4M have had their plans extended, while 581K are still operating under their initial forbearance terms

    » While performance has been strong so far, borrowers who have left their plans already may represent “low hanging fruit,” while those more seriously impacted by the pandemic are likely to remain in forbearance

    0

    1,000,000

    2,000,000

    3,000,000

    4,000,000

    5,000,000

    6,000,000

    7,000,000

    3/17/2

    0

    3/24/2

    0

    3/31/2

    04/7

    /20

    4/14/2

    0

    4/21/2

    0

    4/28/2

    05/5

    /20

    5/12/2

    0

    5/19/2

    0

    5/26/2

    06/2

    /206/9

    /20

    6/16/2

    0

    6/23/2

    0

    6/30/2

    07/7

    /20

    7/14/2

    0

    7/21/2

    0

    7/28/2

    08/4

    /20

    8/11/2

    0

    8/18/2

    0

    8/25/2

    09/1

    /209/8

    /20

    9/15/2

    0

    9/22/2

    0

    9/29/2

    0

    10/6/

    20

    10/13

    /20

    10/20

    /20

    NUMBER OF FORBEARANCE PLANS OVER TIMEEver in COVID-19 Forbearance Active COVID-19 Forbearance

    Source: McDash Flash

    Removed/Expired -Performing2,302,000

    36%Removed/Expired - Delinquent -

    Active Loss Mit481,000

    8%

    Removed/Expired -Delinquent

    80,000 1%

    Paid Off500,000

    8%

    Active ForbearanceOriginal Term

    581,000 9%

    Active Forbearance -Term Extended

    2,397,000 38%

    CURRENT STATUS OF COVID-19 RELATED FORBEARANCES(STATUS AS OF OCTOBER 20TH 2020)

    Source: McDash Flash

    NUMBER OF FORBEARANCE PLANS OVER TIME

    Source: McDash FlashSource: McDash Flash

    CURRENT STATUS OF COVID-19 RELATED FORBEARANCES(STATUS AS OF OCTOBER 20TH 2020)

    https://www.blackknightinc.com/https://www.blackknightinc.com/data-reports/?report-type=mortgage-monitor&reporthttps://www.blackknightinc.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/BKI_MM_Sep2020_Chart15.pdfhttps://www.blackknightinc.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/BKI_MM_Sep2020_Chart16.pdf

  • Confidential, Proprietary and/or Trade Secret TM SM ® Trademark(s) of Black Knight IP Holding Company, LLC, and/or an affiliate. © 2020 Black Knight Financial Technology Solutions, LLC. All Rights Reserved.

    MORTGAGE MONITOR

    SEPTEMBER 2020 | 12

    » The GSEs have seen the highest removal rates, with 57% of borrowers having left their plans, 42% now re-performing on their loans and another 10% having paid off their loans in full

    » VA loans show an even higher payoff rate at 11%, but only 21% of VA borrowers are re-performing and only 46% have left their plans

    » Similarly, 45% of FHA borrowers have left forbearance plans, while 27% are re-performing and only 6% have paid off their mortgages in full

    Not only have forbearance take-up rates varied widely by loan product, but the rate at which borrowers are leaving such plans has varied greatly as well

    SEPTEMBER 2020 FORBEARANCE ACTIVITY UPDATE

    6%11% 10%

    4%8%

    27%21%

    42%

    41%41%

    36%

    11% 12%

    5%

    8%6%

    8%

    2%

    3%

    0%

    10%

    20%

    30%

    40%

    50%

    60%

    FHA VA GSE Portfolio Private Securities Total Market

    Shar

    e of

    Loa

    ns E

    ver i

    n CO

    VID-

    19 F

    orbe

    aran

    ce P

    lans

    STATUS OF LOANS THAT HAVE LEFT COVID-19 RELATED FORBEARANCE PLANS

    (REMAINING SHARE ARE STILL IN FORBEARANCE)Paid Off Performing Delinquent - Active Loss Mit Delinquent - Not in Loss Mit

    STATUS OF LOANS THAT HAVE LEFT COVID-19RELATED FORBEARANCE PLANS

    (REMAINING SHARE ARE STILL IN FORBEARANCE)

    https://www.blackknightinc.com/https://www.blackknightinc.com/data-reports/?report-type=mortgage-monitor&reporthttps://www.blackknightinc.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/BKI_MM_Sep2020_Chart17.pdf

  • Confidential, Proprietary and/or Trade Secret TM SM ® Trademark(s) of Black Knight IP Holding Company, LLC, and/or an affiliate. © 2020 Black Knight Financial Technology Solutions, LLC. All Rights Reserved.

    MORTGAGE MONITOR

    SEPTEMBER 2020 | 13

    SEPTEMBER 2020 FORBEARANCE ACTIVITY UPDATE

    » The number of both pre-COVID (-5%, -126K) as well as post-COVID (-2%, -18.5K) past due mortgages fell in September

    » 65% of all past due mortgages remain in active forbearance including 75% of post-COVID delinquencies and 45% of borrowers who were already past due before the pandemic began

    » All in, 89% of post-COVID and 54% of pre-COVID delinquencies have entered forbearance and/or loss mitigation plans in recent months, equating to 78% of all past due mortgages in the market today

    » Among post-COVID delinquencies that are not in active forbearance, some 311K (12%) are in post-forbearance loss mitigation; 54K have left forbearance and are not in loss mitigation at all, with the remaining 279K (11%) never having entered a forbearance program

    » Some 7% of pre-COVID delinquencies, are not in forbearance, but are in active loss mitigation, while 4% (43K) have been removed from forbearance but are not in loss mitigation; some 44% (503K) have never entered forbearance

    » The majority of borrowers in forbearance are now four or more payments past due, with 8% each falling within 30, 60, and 90 days past due

    » Nearly a quarter (23%/869K) of homeowners in forbearance continue to remain current on their mortgage payments as of September month-end

    1,914,000

    524,000

    311,000

    84,000

    64,000

    43,000

    279,000

    503,000

    -

    500,000

    1,000,000

    1,500,000

    2,000,000

    2,500,000

    Post-COVID Delinquencies Pre-COVID Delinquencies

    BREAKDOWN OF PAST DUE MORTGAGES – SEPT MONTH-ENDActive Forbearance Active Loss Mit Removed From Forbearance Never Forbearance

    11% (279k) Post-COVID and 44% (503k) of Pre-COVID delinquencies are not in active loss mitigation and have not entered a forbearance program in recent months

    Source: McDash Flash

    Pre-COVID Delinquencies include loans that are currently 30+ days past due that became delinquent in February 2020 or prior

    Post-COVID Delinquencies include loans that are currently 30+ days past due that became delinquent in March 2020 or later

    1,914,000

    524,000

    311,000

    84,000

    64,000

    43,000

    279,000

    503,000

    -

    500,000

    1,000,000

    1,500,000

    2,000,000

    2,500,000

    Post-COVID Delinquencies Pre-COVID Delinquencies

    BREAKDOWN OF PAST DUE MORTGAGES – SEPT MONTH-ENDActive Forbearance Active Loss Mit Removed From Forbearance Never Forbearance

    11% (279k) Post-COVID and 44% (503k) of Pre-COVID delinquencies are not in active loss mitigation and have not entered a forbearance program in recent months

    Source: McDash Flash

    Pre-COVID Delinquencies include loans that are currently 30+ days past due that became delinquent in February 2020 or prior

    Post-COVID Delinquencies include loans that are currently 30+ days past due that became delinquent in March 2020 or later

    DELINQUENCY STATUS OF LOANS IN ACTIVE FORBEARANCE(AS OF SEPTEMER MONTH-END)

    Source: McDash Flash

    23%

    8% 8% 8%

    52%

    0%

    10%

    20%

    30%

    40%

    50%

    60%

    Current 30 Days DQ 60 Days DQ 90 Days DQ 120 Days DQ

    BREAKDOWN OF PAST DUE MORTGAGES – SEPT MONTH-END

    Source: McDash FlashSource: McDash FlashPre-COVID Delinquencies include loans that are currently 30+ days past due that became delinquent in February 2020 or priorPost-COVID Delinquencies include loans that are currently 30+ days past due that became delinquent in March 2020 or later

    DELINQUENCY STATUS OF LOANS IN ACTIVE FORBEARANCE(AS OF SEPTEMER MONTH-END)

    https://www.blackknightinc.com/https://www.blackknightinc.com/data-reports/?report-type=mortgage-monitor&reporthttps://www.blackknightinc.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/BKI_MM_Sep2020_Chart18.pdfhttps://www.blackknightinc.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/BKI_MM_Sep2020_Chart19.pdf

  • Confidential, Proprietary and/or Trade Secret TM SM ® Trademark(s) of Black Knight IP Holding Company, LLC, and/or an affiliate. © 2020 Black Knight Financial Technology Solutions, LLC. All Rights Reserved.

    MORTGAGE MONITOR

    SEPTEMBER 2020 | 14

    20.0

    M

    18.5

    M

    16.8

    M

    14.7

    M

    12.2

    M

    10.7

    M

    9.3M

    7.7M

    6.4M

    5.4M

    4.6M

    3.8M

    3.0M

    2.6M

    2.4M

    2.1M

    1.8M

    1.6M

    1.5M

    1.3M

    1.1M

    .9M

    .8M

    2.75

    0%

    2.87

    5%

    3.00

    0%

    3.12

    5%

    3.25

    0%

    3.37

    5%

    3.50

    0%

    3.62

    5%

    3.75

    0%

    3.87

    5%

    4.00

    0%

    4.12

    5%

    4.25

    0%

    4.37

    5%

    4.50

    0%

    4.62

    5%

    4.75

    0%

    4.87

    5%

    5.00

    0%

    5.12

    5%

    5.25

    0%

    5.37

    5%

    5.50

    0%

    NUMBER OF REFINANCE CANDIDATES UNDER DIFFERENT 30-YEAR FIXED RATE SCENARIOS

    (BASED ON FIRST LIEN MARKET MAKE-UP AS OF SEPTEMBER 2020)

    Record low rates continue to create a large market for refinance candidates and strong numbers of rate lock volumes. We are seeing record numbers of originations as well, as homebuyers continue to compete for limited inventory in a unique market that favors larger homes in less dense areas. This information has been compiled from Black Knight’s McDash loan-level mortgage performance database and pipeline metrics from its Compass Analytics division. You may click on each chart to see its contents in high-resolution.

    SEPTEMBER 2020 REFINANCE CANDIDATE & RATE LOCK VOLUMES

    » According to Freddie Mac, 30-year rates set yet another record low on October 22, the 11th such record this year

    » At 2.8%, today’s rates provide significant refinance incentive – despite the millions of homeowners who have already refinanced this year

    » Some 18.5M homeowners still meet broad-based underwriting criteria and could also reduce their interest rate by at least 0.75% through refinance, 10.4M more than there were at the same time last year

    » The average candidate could save $304/month through refinancing, for an aggregate monthly savings of $5.6B if all such candidates were to take advantage of today’s record low rates

    » More than 7M homeowners could save more than $300/month at today’s rates, while 2.5M could save $500/month or more

    » If rates were to fall to 2.75%, an additional 1.5M homeowners would enter the refinanceable population, while rates edging upward to 3% would reduce the population to 16.8M

    .0M

    5.0M

    10.0M

    15.0M

    20.0M

    25.0M

    2.50%

    2.75%

    3.00%

    3.25%

    3.50%

    3.75%

    4.00%

    4.25%

    07.Nov 02.Jan 20.Feb 09.Apr 28.May 16.Jul 03.Sep 22.Oct

    REFINANCE CANDIDATES BY WEEK VS. 30-YEAR FIXED RATES Refi Candidates (Right Axis) 30-Year Fixed Rate Freddie PMMS (Left Axis)

    Refinance Candidates: Homeowners current on their mortgage with 720+ credit scores and >= 20% equity in their home that could reduce their interest rate by 0.75% or more by refinancing into a 30-year fixed rate mortgage at the prevailing interest rate

    .0M

    5.0M

    10.0M

    15.0M

    20.0M

    25.0M

    2.50%

    2.75%

    3.00%

    3.25%

    3.50%

    3.75%

    4.00%

    4.25%

    07.Nov 02.Jan 20.Feb 09.Apr 28.May 16.Jul 03.Sep 22.Oct

    REFINANCE CANDIDATES BY WEEK VS. 30-YEAR FIXED RATES Refi Candidates (Right Axis) 30-Year Fixed Rate Freddie PMMS (Left Axis)

    Refinance Candidates: Homeowners current on their mortgage with 720+ credit scores and >= 20% equity in their home that could reduce their interest rate by 0.75% or more by refinancing into a 30-year fixed rate mortgage at the prevailing interest rate

    REFINANCE CANDIDATES BY WEEK VS. 30-YEAR FIXED RATES

    Source: McDash FlashRefinance Candidates: Homeowners current on their mortgage with 720+ credit scores and >= 20% equity in their home that could reduce their interest rate by 0.75% or more by refinancing into a 30-year fixed rate mortgage at the prevailing interest rate

    NUMBER OF REFINANCE CANDIDATES UNDER DIFFERENT30-YEAR FIXED RATE SCENARIOS

    (BASED ON FIRST LIEN MARKET MAKE-UP AS OF SEPTEMBER 2020)

    https://www.blackknightinc.com/https://www.blackknightinc.com/data-reports/?report-type=mortgage-monitor&reporthttps://www.blackknightinc.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/BKI_MM_Sep2020_Chart21.pdfhttps://www.blackknightinc.com/what-we-do/data-services/https://www.blackknightinc.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/BKI_MM_Sep2020_Chart20.pdf

  • Confidential, Proprietary and/or Trade Secret TM SM ® Trademark(s) of Black Knight IP Holding Company, LLC, and/or an affiliate. © 2020 Black Knight Financial Technology Solutions, LLC. All Rights Reserved.

    MORTGAGE MONITOR

    SEPTEMBER 2020 | 15

    -

    0.10

    0.20

    0.30

    0.40

    0.50

    0.60

    0.70

    0.80

    0.90

    1.00

    Jan-0

    2

    Jan-0

    9

    Jan-1

    6

    Jan-2

    4

    Jan-3

    1

    Feb-0

    7

    Feb-1

    4

    Feb-2

    4

    Mar-0

    2

    Mar-0

    9

    Mar-1

    6

    Mar-2

    3

    Mar-3

    0

    Apr-0

    6Ap

    r-14Ap

    r-21Ap

    r-28

    May-0

    5

    May-1

    2

    May-1

    9

    May-2

    7

    Jun-0

    3

    Jun-1

    0

    Jun-1

    7

    Jun-2

    4Ju

    l-01Ju

    l-09Ju

    l-16Ju

    l-23Ju

    l-30

    Aug-0

    6

    Aug-1

    3

    Aug-2

    0

    Aug-2

    7

    Sep-0

    3

    Sep-1

    0

    Sep-1

    7

    Sep-2

    4

    Oct-0

    1Oc

    t-08Oc

    t-15

    2.75%

    3.00%

    3.25%

    3.50%

    3.75%

    4.00%

    4.25%

    REFINANCE RATE LOCKS VS. 30-YEAR INTEREST RATES(7-DAY AVERAGE RATE LOCK VOLUME INDEXED TO 2020 PEAK)

    Cash-out Locks Rate-Term Locks Conv 30-Year Average Note Rate (Right Axis)

    Source: Compass Analytics

    » Rate lock activity continues to remain strong across the board, which suggests origination and prepayment activity will likely remain elevated well into Q4 2020

    » September lock activity held relatively level with the volumes seen in August, with total purchase locks down a modest 2%, representing the typical seasonal trend

    » Refinance locks in September were level with the month prior, while total locks eased by a modest 1%

    » Through the first half of October, overall lock activity is up 4% from September, with purchase locks up by 6% and refinance locks up 3% month-over-month so far

    » With rates setting new record lows in mid- and late October, they will likely continue to fuel lock activity in coming weeks.

    Source: Compass Analytics

    SEPTEMBER 2020 REFINANCE CANDIDATE & RATE LOCK VOLUMES

    2.75%

    3.00%

    3.25%

    3.50%

    3.75%

    4.00%

    4.25%

    -

    0.20

    0.40

    0.60

    0.80

    1.00

    1.20

    Jan-0

    2

    Jan-0

    9

    Jan-1

    6

    Jan-2

    4

    Jan-3

    1

    Feb-0

    7

    Feb-1

    4

    Feb-2

    4

    Mar-0

    2

    Mar-0

    9

    Mar-1

    6

    Mar-2

    3

    Mar-3

    0

    Apr-0

    6Ap

    r-14Ap

    r-21Ap

    r-28

    May-0

    5

    May-1

    2

    May-1

    9

    May-2

    7

    Jun-0

    3

    Jun-1

    0

    Jun-1

    7

    Jun-2

    4Ju

    l-01Ju

    l-09Ju

    l-16Ju

    l-23Ju

    l-30

    Aug-0

    6

    Aug-1

    3

    Aug-2

    0

    Aug-2

    7

    Sep-0

    3

    Sep-1

    0

    Sep-1

    7

    Sep-2

    4

    Oct-0

    1Oc

    t-08Oc

    t-15

    PURCHASE ORIGINATION RATE LOCKS(7-DAY MOVING AVERAGE INDEXED TO 2020 PEAK)

    Purchase Locks Conv 30-Year Average Note Rate (Right Axis)

    Source: Compass Analytics

    PURCHASE ORIGINATION RATE LOCKS(7-DAY MOVING AVERAGE INDEXED TO 2020 PEAK)

    REFINANCE RATE LOCKS VS. 30-YEAR INTEREST RATES(7-DAY AVERAGE RATE LOCK VOLUME INDEXED TO 2020 PEAK)

    Source: Compass Analytics

    https://www.blackknightinc.com/https://www.blackknightinc.com/data-reports/?report-type=mortgage-monitor&reporthttps://www.blackknightinc.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/BKI_MM_Sep2020_Chart22.pdfhttps://www.blackknightinc.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/BKI_MM_Sep2020_Chart23.pdf

  • Confidential, Proprietary and/or Trade Secret TM SM ® Trademark(s) of Black Knight IP Holding Company, LLC, and/or an affiliate. © 2020 Black Knight Financial Technology Solutions, LLC. All Rights Reserved.

    MORTGAGE MONITOR

    SEPTEMBER 2020 | 16

    » Factoring in a 45-day lock to close period (and assuming pull through rates), this suggests that not only could Q3 set quarterly records for refinance, purchase, and total origination volumes alike, but that volume could remain at or near peak levels through November, if not longer

    » Estimated origination volumes based on underlying locks suggest both Q3 refinance and total originations could be up 25% or more from Q2, while purchase lending could be up by 35% or more from the pandemic-stricken second quarter

    » This would push purchase lending for 2020 to the highest level since 2005, and both refinance lending and total origination volumes to their highest levels ever, with total lending in 2020 on pace to easily eclipse the $4T threshold for the first time on record

    » Despite heavy impacts from the pandemic early in the year, this also suggests that, through November, purchase lending overall in 2020 would be up an impressive 11% from the same point in 2019, and be poised to expand on those gains in December, with Q3 alone notching purchase origination volumes 23% above the previous year

    $B

    $25B

    $50B

    $75B

    $100B

    $125B

    $150B

    $175B

    Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

    FIRST LIEN PURCHASE ORIGINATION VOLUMES2019 2020 Est. Based on Lock Volumes

    Source: McDash, Compass Analytics

    Estimated origination volumes are based on comparative purchase rate lock volumes assuming a 45 day lock to close period along with steady pull through rates

    $B

    $100B

    $200B

    $300B

    $400B

    $500B

    $600B

    2018

    01

    2018

    02

    2018

    03

    2018

    04

    2018

    05

    2018

    06

    2018

    07

    2018

    08

    2018

    09

    2018

    10

    2018

    11

    2018

    12

    2019

    01

    2019

    02

    2019

    03

    2019

    04

    2019

    05

    2019

    06

    2019

    07

    2019

    08

    2019

    09

    2019

    10

    2019

    11

    2019

    12

    2020

    01

    2020

    02

    2020

    03

    2020

    04

    2020

    05

    2020

    06

    2020

    07

    2020

    08

    2020

    09

    2020

    10

    2020

    11

    FIRST LIEN MORTGAGE ORIGINATIONSPurchase Originations Refinance Originations

    Estimated Based on Rate Lock Volumes (Assumes 45 day lock to close timeline)

    Source: McDash, Compass Analytics

    $B

    $100B

    $200B

    $300B

    $400B

    $500B

    $600B

    2018

    01

    2018

    02

    2018

    03

    2018

    04

    2018

    05

    2018

    06

    2018

    07

    2018

    08

    2018

    09

    2018

    10

    2018

    11

    2018

    12

    2019

    01

    2019

    02

    2019

    03

    2019

    04

    2019

    05

    2019

    06

    2019

    07

    2019

    08

    2019

    09

    2019

    10

    2019

    11

    2019

    12

    2020

    01

    2020

    02

    2020

    03

    2020

    04

    2020

    05

    2020

    06

    2020

    07

    2020

    08

    2020

    09

    2020

    10

    2020

    11

    FIRST LIEN MORTGAGE ORIGINATIONSPurchase Originations Refinance Originations

    Estimated Based on Rate Lock Volumes (Assumes 45 day lock to close timeline)

    Source: McDash, Compass Analytics

    FIRST LIEN MORTGAGE ORIGINATIONS FIRST LIEN PURCHASE ORIGINATION VOLUMES

    Source: McDash, Compass Analytics Estimated origination volumes are based on comparative purchase rate lock volumes assuming a 45 day lock to close period along with steady pull through ratesSource: McDash, Compass Analytics

    SEPTEMBER 2020 REFINANCE CANDIDATE & RATE LOCK VOLUMES

    https://www.blackknightinc.com/https://www.blackknightinc.com/data-reports/?report-type=mortgage-monitor&reporthttps://www.blackknightinc.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/BKI_MM_Sep2020_Chart25.pdfhttps://www.blackknightinc.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/BKI_MM_Sep2020_Chart24.pdf

  • Confidential, Proprietary and/or Trade Secret TM SM ® Trademark(s) of Black Knight IP Holding Company, LLC, and/or an affiliate. © 2020 Black Knight Financial Technology Solutions, LLC. All Rights Reserved.

    MORTGAGE MONITOR

    SEPTEMBER 2020 | 17

    » According to daily home price tracking data from Black Knight’s Collateral Analytics group, after seeing annual growth of 11.5% in August, annual appreciation accelerated to a startling 14.2% in September, the highest such rate in more than 15 years

    » While strong home price growth can be seen as a win for homeowners as well as lenders dealing with a deluge of delinquent and forborne loans, a lack of inventory in the market continues to make it a challenging and competitive market for potential homebuyers

    After seeing annual home price appreciation flatten in May – the first time since early 2012 – growth rates have since skyrocketed, driven by record-low rates, improved affordability and a severe shortage of available inventory

    SEPTEMBER 2020 REFINANCE CANDIDATE & RATE LOCK VOLUMES

    +15.9%+13.9% +14.2%

    -20

    -15

    -10

    -5

    0

    5

    10

    15

    20

    2001

    -09

    2002

    -09

    2003

    -09

    2004

    -09

    2005

    -09

    2006

    -09

    2007

    -09

    2008

    -09

    2009

    -09

    2010

    -09

    2011

    -09

    2012

    -09

    2013

    -09

    2014

    -09

    2015

    -09

    2016

    -09

    2017

    -09

    2018

    -09

    2019

    -09

    2020

    -09

    Perc

    ent

    U.S. EXISTING SINGLE FAMILY HOME PRICE CHANGE(ANNUAL CHANGE IN MEDIAN HOME PRICE)

    Source: Collateral Analytics

    U.S. EXISTING SINGLE FAMILY HOME PRICE CHANGE(ANNUAL CHANGE IN MEDIAN HOME PRICE)

    Source: Collateral Analytics

    https://www.blackknightinc.com/https://www.blackknightinc.com/data-reports/?report-type=mortgage-monitor&reporthttps://www.blackknightinc.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/BKI_MM_Sep2020_Chart26.pdf

  • Confidential, Proprietary and/or Trade Secret TM SM ® Trademark(s) of Black Knight IP Holding Company, LLC, and/or an affiliate. © 2020 Black Knight Financial Technology Solutions, LLC. All Rights Reserved.

    MORTGAGE MONITOR

    SEPTEMBER 2020 | 18

    Summary Statistics

    Sep-20 Monthly ChangeYTD

    ChangeYearly

    ChangeDelinquencies 6.66% -3.10% 107.12% 89.03%

    Foreclosure 0.34% -2.86% -26.61% -29.14%Foreclosure Starts 4,500 -25.00% -89.49% -88.58%

    Seriously Delinquent (90+) or in Foreclosure 4.71% -1.25% 276.02% 256.42%

    New Originations (data as of Aug-20) 1427K 13.2% 89.7% 77.6%

    Sep-20 Aug-20 Jul-20 Jun-20 May-20 Apr-20 Mar-20 Feb-20 Jan-20 Dec-19 Nov-19 Oct-19 Sep-19Delinquencies 6.66% 6.88% 6.91% 7.59% 7.76% 6.45% 3.39% 3.28% 3.22% 3.40% 3.53% 3.39% 3.53%

    Foreclosure 0.34% 0.35% 0.36% 0.36% 0.38% 0.40% 0.42% 0.45% 0.46% 0.46% 0.47% 0.48% 0.48%Foreclosure Starts 4,500 6,000 9900 5,900 5,100 7,400 27,600 32,300 42,800 39,500 33500 43,900 39,400

    Seriously Delinquent (90+) or in Foreclosure 4.71% 4.77% 4.57% 3.89% 1.57% 1.28% 1.18% 1.22% 1.25% 1.27% 1.30% 1.31% 1.32%

    New Originations 1427K 1260K 1232K 1066K 1037K 921K 701K 650K 752K 734K 859K 807K

    3.53

    %

    3.39

    %

    3.53

    %

    3.40

    %

    3.22

    %

    3.28

    %

    3.39

    % 6.4

    5% 7.76

    %

    7.59

    %

    6.91

    %

    6.88

    %

    6.66

    %

    Sep-1

    9

    Oct-1

    9

    Nov-1

    9

    Dec-1

    9

    Jan-2

    0

    Feb-2

    0

    Mar-2

    0Ap

    r-20

    May-2

    0

    Jun-2

    0Ju

    l-20

    Aug-2

    0

    Sep-2

    0

    TOTAL DELINQUENCIES

    807K

    859K

    734K

    752K

    650K

    701K 92

    1K

    1037

    K

    1066

    K

    1232

    K

    1260

    K

    1427

    K

    Sep-1

    9

    Oct-1

    9

    Nov-1

    9

    Dec-1

    9

    Jan-2

    0

    Feb-2

    0

    Mar-2

    0

    Apr-2

    0

    May-2

    0

    Jun-2

    0Ju

    l-20

    Aug-2

    0

    NEW ORIGINATIONS

    SEPTEMBER 2020 DATA SUMMARY

    SEPTEMBER 2020 APPENDIX

    https://www.blackknightinc.com/https://www.blackknightinc.com/data-reports/?report-type=mortgage-monitor&reporthttps://www.blackknightinc.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/BKI_MM_Sep2020_Chart27.pdf

  • Confidential, Proprietary and/or Trade Secret TM SM ® Trademark(s) of Black Knight IP Holding Company, LLC, and/or an affiliate. © 2020 Black Knight Financial Technology Solutions, LLC. All Rights Reserved.

    MORTGAGE MONITOR

    SEPTEMBER 2020 | 19

    Confidential, Proprietary and/or Trade SecretTM SM ® Trademark(s) of Black Knight IP Holding Company, LLC, or an affiliate.

    © 2019 Black Knight Data Analytics, LLC. All Rights Reserved. Page 1 of 1

    MonthTOTAL ACTIVE

    COUNT30 DAYS 60 DAYS 90+ DAYS FC

    Total Non-Current

    FC StartsAverage Days

    Delinquent for 90+

    Average Days Delinquent for

    FC

    Ratio of 90+ to FC

    1/31/05 47,706,128 1,197,062 339,920 458,719 276,745 2,272,446 50,922 242 324 165.8%1/31/06 50,900,620 1,242,434 387,907 542,378 258,613 2,431,332 76,477 207 308 209.7%1/31/07 53,900,458 1,425,030 468,441 551,439 393,973 2,838,883 117,419 203 267 140.0%1/31/08 55,478,782 1,743,420 676,266 950,639 813,560 4,183,885 195,033 190 256 116.8%1/31/09 55,788,441 2,001,314 932,436 1,878,981 1,321,029 6,133,760 250,621 193 323 142.2%1/31/10 55,098,009 1,945,589 903,778 2,972,983 2,068,572 7,890,922 292,308 253 418 143.7%1/31/11 53,861,778 1,750,601 746,634 2,078,130 2,245,250 6,820,615 277,374 333 527 92.6%1/31/12 52,687,781 1,592,463 652,524 1,796,698 2,205,818 6,247,503 223,394 395 666 81.5%1/31/13 51,229,692 1,464,583 587,661 1,551,415 1,742,689 5,346,348 156,654 460 803 89.0%1/31/14 50,380,779 1,341,074 529,524 1,278,955 1,213,046 4,362,599 97,467 486 935 105.4%1/31/15 50,412,744 1,238,453 465,849 1,060,002 884,901 3,649,204 93,280 509 1,031 119.8%1/31/16 50,754,010 1,300,564 444,962 832,265 660,056 3,237,847 72,021 494 1,047 126.1%1/31/17 51,159,681 1,110,977 390,341 665,258 481,613 2,648,190 70,568 454 1,012 138.1%1/31/18 51,428,922 1,085,065 413,313 708,248 337,351 2,543,976 62,470 364 931 209.9%1/31/19 51,896,438 1,074,044 367,750 503,655 264,875 2,210,325 50,196 391 830 190.1%1/31/20 52,999,009 954,154 332,534 418,662 245,517 1,950,866 42,834 338 838 170.5%2/29/20 52,950,379 1,012,320 315,219 409,432 239,058 1,976,030 32,259 341 842 171.3%3/31/20 52,879,016 1,077,439 309,101 405,840 220,271 2,012,651 27,585 338 875 184.2%4/30/20 52,739,249 2,511,419 427,419 461,530 211,316 3,611,685 7,362 316 957 218.4%5/31/20 53,103,003 1,757,871 1,734,344 631,110 200,426 4,323,750 5,077 257 1,022 314.9%6/30/20 53,152,827 1,047,342 1,112,849 1,873,938 192,176 4,226,305 5,904 156 1,068 975.1%7/31/20 53,396,885 875,566 565,706 2,250,411 189,590 3,881,272 9,943 157 1,141 1187.0%8/31/20 53,501,232 848,226 465,450 2,365,789 187,240 3,866,705 5,955 175 1,198 1263.5%9/30/20 53,141,013 820,741 397,370 2,323,447 180,659 3,722,217 4,489 194 1,240 1286.1%

    LOAN COUNTS AND AVERAGE DAYS DELINQUENT

    SEPTEMBER 2020 APPENDIX

    https://www.blackknightinc.com/https://www.blackknightinc.com/data-reports/?report-type=mortgage-monitor&reporthttps://www.blackknightinc.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/BKI_MM_Sep2020_Chart28.pdf

  • Confidential, Proprietary and/or Trade Secret TM SM ® Trademark(s) of Black Knight IP Holding Company, LLC, and/or an affiliate. © 2020 Black Knight Financial Technology Solutions, LLC. All Rights Reserved.

    MORTGAGE MONITOR

    SEPTEMBER 2020 | 20

    State Del % FC % NC %Year/Year Change in

    NC%State Del % FC % NC %

    Year/Year Change in

    NC %State Del % FC % NC %

    Year/Year Change in

    NC %National 6.7% 0.3% 7.0% 75.1% National 6.7% 0.3% 7.0% 75.1% National 6.7% 0.3% 7.0% 75.1%MS 11.2% 0.4% 11.5% 10.4% RI 7.2% 0.6% 7.8% 47.5% MA 5.7% 0.3% 6.0% 57.7%LA* 10.6% 0.5% 11.2% 39.8% PA* 7.2% 0.5% 7.7% 43.7% DC 5.4% 0.3% 5.7% 122.7%HI* 7.9% 1.3% 9.2% 143.4% VT* 7.0% 0.7% 7.7% 72.9% MI 5.6% 0.1% 5.7% 45.8%NY* 7.7% 1.2% 8.9% 80.0% IL* 7.2% 0.5% 7.7% 79.1% AZ 5.5% 0.1% 5.6% 95.2%TX 8.5% 0.2% 8.8% 76.8% SC* 7.1% 0.3% 7.5% 44.4% IA* 5.2% 0.4% 5.6% 38.5%MD* 8.3% 0.4% 8.7% 74.1% DE* 6.9% 0.5% 7.4% 45.3% WI* 5.3% 0.3% 5.6% 48.6%NV 8.3% 0.4% 8.7% 185.0% ME* 6.3% 0.9% 7.2% 33.9% MN 5.3% 0.1% 5.4% 101.7%GA 8.5% 0.2% 8.7% 67.1% KS* 6.8% 0.3% 7.1% 55.2% NH 5.1% 0.2% 5.3% 46.2%FL* 8.1% 0.5% 8.7% 105.4% OH* 6.4% 0.5% 6.9% 47.7% ND* 4.9% 0.3% 5.2% 137.7%CT* 7.9% 0.7% 8.6% 71.9% TN 6.8% 0.1% 6.9% 46.9% CA 5.0% 0.1% 5.1% 143.4%AL 8.3% 0.2% 8.6% 24.5% NM* 6.2% 0.5% 6.8% 54.8% SD* 4.6% 0.3% 4.9% 74.1%AK 8.3% 0.2% 8.5% 146.4% NC 6.5% 0.2% 6.7% 52.9% UT 4.6% 0.1% 4.7% 89.8%NJ* 8.0% 0.5% 8.5% 91.9% NE* 6.4% 0.2% 6.6% 67.5% MT 4.4% 0.2% 4.6% 78.3%WV 8.0% 0.4% 8.4% 31.5% VA 6.0% 0.1% 6.1% 76.5% OR 4.4% 0.2% 4.5% 134.2%OK* 7.8% 0.6% 8.4% 46.0% WY 5.9% 0.1% 6.1% 94.5% CO 4.3% 0.1% 4.4% 145.8%AR 7.6% 0.3% 7.9% 28.1% KY* 5.7% 0.4% 6.0% 46.9% WA 4.1% 0.1% 4.2% 119.0%IN* 7.4% 0.5% 7.9% 37.3% MO 5.8% 0.2% 6.0% 43.1% ID 3.6% 0.1% 3.7% 78.2%

    * Indicates Judicial State

    STATE-BY-STATE RANKINGS BY NON-CURRENT LOAN POPULATION

    SEPTEMBER 2020 APPENDIX

    https://www.blackknightinc.com/https://www.blackknightinc.com/data-reports/?report-type=mortgage-monitor&reporthttps://www.blackknightinc.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/BKI_MM_Sep2020_Chart29.pdf

  • Confidential, Proprietary and/or Trade Secret TM SM ® Trademark(s) of Black Knight IP Holding Company, LLC, and/or an affiliate. © 2020 Black Knight Financial Technology Solutions, LLC. All Rights Reserved.

    MORTGAGE MONITOR

    SEPTEMBER 2020 | 21

    Mortgage Monitor Disclosures

    You can reach us by email [email protected]

    Follow us on Twitter@Black_KnightInc

    SEPTEMBER 2020 DISCLOSURE

    https://www.blackknightinc.com/https://www.blackknightinc.com/data-reports/?report-type=mortgage-monitor&reporthttp://www.blackknightinc.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/BKI_MM-Disclosures.pdfhttp://www.blackknightinc.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/BKI_MM-Disclosures.pdfmailto:Mortgage.Monitor%40bkfs.com%20?subject=https://twitter.com/black_knightinc?lang=en

  • Confidential, Proprietary and/or Trade Secret TM SM ® Trademark(s) of Black Knight IP Holding Company, LLC, and/or an affiliate. © 2020 Black Knight Financial Technology Solutions, LLC. All Rights Reserved.

    MORTGAGE MONITOR

    SEPTEMBER 2020 | 22

    TOTAL ACTIVE COUNT: All active loans as of month-end including loans in any state of delinquency or foreclosure. Post-sale loans and loans in REO are excluded from the total active count.

    DELINQUENCY STATUSES (30, 60, 90+, ETC):

    All delinquency statuses are calculated using the MBA methodology based on the payment due date provided by the servicer. Loans in foreclosure are reported separately and are not included in the MBA days delinquent.

    90-DAY DEFAULTS: Loans that were less than 90 days delinquent in the prior month and were 90 days delinquent, but not in foreclosure, in the current month.

    FORECLOSURE INVENTORY: The servicer has referred the loan to an attorney for foreclosure. Loans remain in foreclosure inventory from referral to sale.

    FORECLOSURE STARTS: Any active loan that was not in foreclosure in the prior month that moves into foreclosure inventory in the current month.

    NON-CURRENT: Loans in any stage of delinquency or foreclosure.

    FORECLOSURE SALE / NEW REO:

    Any loan that was in foreclosure in the prior month that moves into post-sale status or is flagged as a foreclosure liquidation.

    REO: The loan is in post-sale foreclosure status. Listing status is not a consideration, this includes all properties on and off the market.

    DETERIORATION RATIO: The ratio of the percentage of loans deteriorating in delinquency status vs. those improving.

    SEPTEMBER 2020 DEFINITIONS

    https://www.blackknightinc.com/https://www.blackknightinc.com/data-reports/?report-type=mortgage-monitor&report