biotechnology at oecd
TRANSCRIPT
Can Bioscience Underpin Economic Strategies?
Iain Gillespie,Head of Division.
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OECD and Biotechnology
• Biotechnology as a microeconomic driver for growth
• Harmonisation of regulatory regimes and provision of positive and stable international business environment
• Biotechnology as a driver for market transition
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Which Economic Strategies?
• Health • Sustainability (decoupling growth from
environmental degradation = eco-efficiency)
• Nutrition/ Food Security• Globalisation and trade.• Growth
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Health
• Potential of molecular markers to add value to medicines?
• New disease and drug targets?• Interoperability or Tower of Babel? • New business & innovation models?
BIOTECHNOLOGY BIOTECHNOLOGY DIVISIONDIVISION
Model-adjusted Mean Change from Baseline in ADAS-cog by treatment week
ITT population PGx ITT population by APOE4 status*
*Excluding subjects 364, 737 and 1027
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
0 4 8 12 16 20 24
Placebo M 2mgM 4mg M 8mg
Me
an
ch
an
ge
in A
DA
S-c
og
sco
re
Weeks of Treatment
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
0 4 8 12 16 20 24
E4-, placebo E4+, placeboE4-, M 2mg E4+, M 2mgE4-, M 4mg E4+, M 4mgE4-, M 8mg E4+, M 8mg
Me
an
ch
an
ge
in A
DA
S-c
og
sco
re
Weeks of Treatment
Linear Model
The current approach…..
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Discovery Development Delivery Diffusion
DEVELOPMENT
IDENTIFICATION of NEED
DIFFUSION
DELIVERY
Research Policy-Guidelines-eghuman subjects, consent, privacy.-Research Ethics Boards
RESEARCH
Industry Policy-Feasibility-Trials-Formulation-IPR
Healthcare Policy-Accessible-Affordable-Cost-effective
Regulatory/LegislativePolicy-Patient safety-Standards-Medical guidelines
Decisions
Match innovation and health needs
Enabling environment?Making Demand and Supply Work Together
COMMERCIALISATION
Industrial
• Decouple growth from pollution?• Platform technologies/ intermediates?
• Leverage infrastructure?• Will subsidies be necessary?
BIOTECHNOLOGY BIOTECHNOLOGY DIVISIONDIVISION
Pollution
(e.g., CO2 , toxic chemicals)
Economic Growth (e.g., employment, GDP)
Conventional technology
Sustainability via the biobased economy
Eco-efficiency &
renewable feedstock
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Renewable T-Shirts!
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Cargill-Dow (Nebraska)
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Market Potential
• Recognise opportunities to realise latent value natural processes.
• Significant economic potential in manufacturing and processing industry (sector provides 17% direct economic value in OECD countries - big pharma another 2-3%).
• But must avoid over-hype and exact estimates missing - need to be generated.
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Measuring the Biobased Economy
Country strategies: visions, roadmaps, foresight. Goal setting
Measuring activity: eg investment, jobs, numbers of firms, churning, patents. Definitions, methodology and comparability.
Measuring impact: productivity, sustainability, demand and acceptability. Small impacts so far, pervasive sector.
Measuring cause and effect: Activity or Policy? Do we need to know.
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Inputs & Outputs
BIOTECHNOLOGY BIOTECHNOLOGY DIVISIONDIVISION
STAGE METRIC STAGE METRIC
Inputs R&D spend Outputs Sales
Activities No. firms Value VC investments
Employment as % GDP
Patents Alliances
Biotechnology R&DTotal expenditure on biotechnology R&D by biotechnology-active
firms, Million PPP$, 2003
469
699
727
1,194
1,342
1,347
236
205
201
199
95
88
84
67
29
5
251
14,232 7.0
3.3
5.7
12.0
23.8
3.2
8.6
4.9
2.8
3.8
3.1
20.9
2.4
4.2
51.4
2.0
0.6
0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000
Poland (2004)
Norway
Iceland
South Africa (2002)
Finland
New Zealand (2004)
Spain (2004)
Australia
China (Shanghai)
Italy (2004)
Israel (2002)
Switzerland (2004)
Korea (2004)
Denmark (1)
Canada
France
Germany (2004)
United States
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13
17
23
3239
41
73
106
116
119
123
148
157172
216
267
278
304
455
490
607640
755
21963154
804
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500
Poland (2004)
Portugal (5)
Iceland
Norway
Austria (5)
Ireland (5)
Belgium (4)
South Africa (2002) (4)
New Zealand (2004)Netherlands (5)
Finland (4)
Israel (2002)
Switzerland (2004)
Italy (2004)
Sweden
Denmark
Spain (2004)Australia
United Kingdom (5)
Canada
Germany (2004) (4)
Korea (2004) (4)
France
Japan (3,4)
United States
European Union
Core biotech firms (2)
All Biotech active firms
Biotechnology firmsNumber of biotechnology firms, 2003
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Biotechnology employmentBiotechnology R&D employees, headcounts 2003
109
283
458
1,053
1146
1,447
1,596
1,984
2,359
2,884
4,143
4193
4,781
6,441
6,554
8,024
9,644
73,520
0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000
Poland (2004)
Norway (2)
Iceland
Ireland (2)
Finland (2)
China (Shanghai) (4)
Israel (2002)
Belgium
Sweden (2)
Spain (2004)
Switzerland (2004) (2)
France (2)
Denmark (4)
Canada (3)
Korea (2004)
Germany (2004)
United Kingdom (2)
United States (2)
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Biotechnology Patents
15. Share of countries in Biotechnology patents1 filed at the EPO
Shares, 2002
Other countries
3.1%
Canada 2.3%Switzerland
1.7%
Israel 1.2%
China 0.8%
Korea 0.9%
Australia1.7%
Germany13.6%
United Kingdom
5.6%
France4.6%
Netherlands2.5%
Denmark 1.7%Sweden
1.6%
Other European countries
4.9%
United States39.9%
European Union34.5%
Japan13.8%
Other countries
11.9%
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Sales of Biotechnology firms, Million PPP$. 2003
107
123
332
343
345
485
509
972
1,880
1,889
2,146
3,086
3,838
4,173
5,759
9,886
50,472 10
15
46
92
0 20,000 40,000 60,000
Norway (2,4)
Israel (2002) (1)
Finland (2)
Spain (2004) (2,3)
Switzerland (2,4)
France (2,4)
Germany (2004) (1)
United Kingdom (2,4)
United States (2001) (1)
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Total venture capital investments in biotechnology, 2001 to 2003 combined
000111236142329
7498124127159302323
502721769
9,526
0.00.00.00.1
0.2
0.2
0.60.8
1.0
1.01.22.4
0.00.00.00.0
0.0
0.0
2.5
3.95.6
6.0
74.4
0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000
GreeceSlovak Republic
HungaryPoland
Czech RepublicPortugalIcelandIrelandAustria
SpainItaly
FinlandNorway
SwitzerlandBelgium
NetherlandsDenmark
FranceSweden
United KingdomCanada
GermanyUnited States
Million US dollars
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Biotechnology venture capitalBiotechnology venture capital investments as a percentage of GDP,
2003
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.003
0.005
0.005
0.007
0.008
0.009
0.015
0.016
0.022
0.024
0.026
0.031
0.000 0.005 0.010 0.015 0.020 0.025 0.030 0.035
Austria
Greece
Hungary
Poland
Slovak Republic
Portugal
Ireland
Spain
Czech Republic
Italy
Netherlands
Belgium
Germany
France
Finland
Switzerland
Sweden
United Kingdom
Norway
Denmark
Canada
United States
Percent GDPBIOTECHNOLOGYBIOTECHNOLOGY
DIVISIONDIVISION
Number of biotechnology alliances, 1990 to 2003
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
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Where are we?
• Great on visioning. Real signs of success in raising interest/ investment.
• Good measures of input – at national/ regional level. Still limited at sector/ firm level.
• Progress on measuring activity, but needs to distinguish sectors and look at firm level.
• Output measures lagging. Market sluggish and probably inefficient, basically no idea at national/ regional level. Firm level based on market response.
BIOTECHNOLOGY BIOTECHNOLOGY DIVISIONDIVISION
What’s Missing? Would Resources Better be Put Elsewhere?
• Indicators (then measures) for productivity and other economic activity.
• Indicators (then measures) for policy goals (health, sustainability).
• Measures of value and value added (intangible assets).
• Endogenous growth models?
BIOTECHNOLOGY BIOTECHNOLOGY DIVISIONDIVISION
Realising a Bioeconomy
“an economy which captures the latent value in biological processes and renewable bioresources to produce improved health and sustainable
growth and development”. • Building visions for the development of the bioeconomy
• Identifying technical, financial, human capital, regulatory bottlenecks
• Providing as much as possible a quantifiable benefit analysis of the main segments
• Providing a road map of necessary policy choices ahead
IBIOTECHNOLOGYIBIOTECHNOLOGY DIVISIONDIVISION