Biophysical and Socioeconomic Assessments: The LOICZ* Approach

Liana Talaue-McManusRosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science

University of Miami

LOICZ Nutrient Budget & Typology Teams

*Land-Ocean Interaction in the Coastal Zone

Objectives

• LOICZ framework in assessing the role of the global coast in material (carbon, nutrients, freshwater) delivery and cycling.

• A resource in identifying/ formulating indicators for themes on coastal water quality and eutrophication

• Scale: – Local: catchments and associated estuarine

areas– Regional and global carbon assessments

Outline

• Goals of LOICZ as a Core Project of the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP)

• Biophysical approaches

• Socio-economic approaches

• Future directions

mass balances of C, N and P

interphase with integrated coastal management

land use, climate, sea level on material fluxes and coastal morphodynamics

anthropogenic influence trace gas emissions

source/ sink for Carbon dioxide

Local

Regional

Global

SCALES

SCALES

MATERIAL FLUX MODELS

BasinsBasins Coastal SeasCoastal Seas OceansOceans

Typology

Horizontal fluxes

Vertical fluxes

Ecosystems & Habitats & People

LOICZLOICZ

Nutrient Budget

Modeling

PrPredictive relationships

TypologyTo discernRegional &

Global patterns

22002222200 sites

with nutrientbudgets

Using globalDatabases to

Scale up

Clustering& Visualization

tools

DATA NEEDS:•System area and volume•River runoff, precipitation, & evaporation•Salinity gradient•Nutrient loads•DIP concentrations•DIN concentrations•DOP, DON (if available)•DIC (if available).

Non-conservative nutrient fluxes

Stoichiometry106CO2 + 16H+ + 16NO3

- + H3PO4 + 122H2O

(CH2O)106(NH3)16H3PO4 + 138O2

(p-r) or net ecosystem metabolism, NEM = - DIP x 106 (C:P)

(nfix-denit) = DINobs - DINexp

= DINobs - DIP x 16 (N:P)

Where: (C:P) ratio is 106:1 and (N:P) ratio is 16:1 (Redfield ratio)

Note: Redfield C:N:P is a good approximation where local C:N:P is absent (e.g. mangrove litter).

Redfield Equation

Non-conservative fluxes & system states: Lingayen Gulf

Derived Parameter Estimate

(mmol m-2 yr-1)

DIP load (total input fluxes) 65

DIN load (total input fluxes) 425

DIP -35

DIN -600

(p-r)

(nfix-denit)

1,890

0

Nutrient Budget Assessments(black areas)

Socioeconomic Assessments

• Site specific:– Population– Waste load from economic

• Global:– Population– Waste load proxies

• Agricultural land cover• Runoff (natural + anthropogenic sources)

Methods

ECONOMICSUB-SYSTEM

ESTUARINESUB-SYTEM

RESIDUALS

RESOURCES

Input-Output Modelling(James 1985)

BiogeochemicalBudget Modelling

(Gordon et al. 1996)

Input-Output Model:11 Economic Sectors

• Agriculture• Fishery• Forestry• Mining & quarrying• Heavy

manufacturing (I)• Light manufacturing

(II)

• Electricity, gas & water• Waterworks & supply• Construction• Transport,

communication & storage

• Other services• Household

Population & Economics

Feature Red River Delta

Ban Don Bay

Lingayen Gulf

Merbok Estuary

Population (x1000)

19,900 860 2,600 300

Population

Density

(nos km-2)

610 70 400 680

Economic activities

-Agriculture

-Forestry

-Capture fisheries

-Shrimp farming

-Aquaculture

-Capture fisheries

-Mangrove wood harvest

-Agriculture

-Rubber & oil

-Agriculture

-Capture fisheries

-Aquaculture

-Light manufacturing

-Charcoal production-Capture fisheries-Aquaculture-Agriculture

Nutrients: Human-generated and Loads

Parameter

(mmol m-2 yr-1)

RRD

CNP=

1000:13:1

Bandon Bay CNP = 324:27:1

Lingayen Gulf CNP = 106:16:1

Merbok Estuary CNP = 1400:9:1

DIP generation•Agriculture•Household

520

78%

NA

10

21%

14%

90

45%

53%

180

31%

NA

DIP load 110 25 65 20

DIN generation•Agriculture•Household

1,940

76%

NA

60

21%

15%

800

78%

20%

2,480

28%

NA

DIN load 405 1140 425 670

Nutrient Budget Assessments(black areas): How to scale up globally?

Predictive relationships

Log (mol DIP km-2 yr-1) =

2.72 + 0.36 X log (persons km-2 ) +

0.78 X log (runoff in m3 yr-1)

DIP load, number of persons, and runoff scaled to catchment basin area

N=168; r2 = 0.58 (Smith et al, in prep.)

LOICZ Typology Database

• 0.5 degree grid• 47,057 cells (out of 259,200 total for earth’s

surface) make up primary typology cells– Coastal (with shoreline; NOAA 1999)– Stream network (U. New Hampshire 1999)– Grid cell composition:

Coastal (15,278 cells)

+ terrestrial (immed. Landward) (12,449 cells)

+ oceanic (immed. Seaward) (19,330 cells)

Yield

Load

Potential Directions

• Systematic assessments of socioeconomic drivers along rural-urban gradients– System state feedbacks on resource-based

economic activities (capture fisheries, aquaculture, tourism)

– Watershed management• Fertilizer policy and use• Sewage and wastewater treatment• Land use and cover change

Acq

uisitio

n

Sca

ling

Va

riab

ility

Dissem

ina

tion

Theme 1– River basins and human dimensions.

Theme 2 – Coastal development and change: Implications of land/sea usechange

Theme 3– Fate and transformation of materials in coastal and shelf waters

Theme 4 – System sustainability and resource management issues

Theme 5 – Risk and Safety

LOICZ: Phase II