Biofuel and electrification, do we need both?The role of biofuels, electrofuels and electricity in

the transformation of the transport sector

Maria GrahnFysisk Resursteori, Institutionen för Rymd- geo- och miljövetenskap,

Chalmers tekniska högskola2018-04-26

Different fuels and vehicle technology options in different transport modes?

Methane(biogas, SNG, natural gas)

Hydrogen

Rail(train, tram)

Aviation

Shipping (short)

Road (short) (cars, busses,

distribution trucks)

Road (long) (long distance trucks

and busses)

FCV (fuel cell vehicles)

Liquid fuels(petro, methanol,

ethanol, biodiesel)

ICEV, HEV (internal combus-

tion engine vehiclesand hybrids)

Fossil(oil, natural

gas, coal)

Biomass

Solar, wind etc

Electrolysis

Productionof electro

fuels

CO2Water

ENERGY SOURCES ENERGY CARRIERS VEHICLE TECHNOLOGIES TRANSPORT MODES

Shipping (long)

BEV, PHEV (battery electric

vehicles)

Inductive and conductive

electricElectricity

Cellulose & Lignin

e.g. wood, black liquor, grass

Starche.g. wheat, corn,

potatoes

Sugar

Oile.g. rapeseed,

palmoil, soy

Rest flowse.g. straw, sawdust,

manure, sludge, food waste

Fermentationof sugar

Ethanol

BIOMASS CONVERSION PROCESS ENERGY CARRIER

ElectricityCombustion

Methane

Hydrogen

Fischer-TropschFuels

DME (Dimethyleter)

Methanol

Gasificationto syngas

(CO and H2)

Hydrotreatingof vegetable oil HVO

Pressingand esterification FAME

(Fatty acid methylester, eg RME)

Anearobicdigestionto biogas

Example of biofuels and conversion processes

Which fuel is best? Depends on…

Ethanol(cellolose,sugarcane)

Biodiesel(FAME, HVO)

Wood-basedDME, diesel

Ethanol(wheat,sugerbeet)

Biogas(manure)

Conventionalgasoline, diesel

Coal-basedDME, diesel

Well-to-wheel energy expended and greenhouse gas emissions for different fuel production pathways, assuming technology matureness by year 2020. All biofuel options are plottedas neat products. Pathways differ depending on different primary energy sources (e.g., farmed wood, waste wood, straw, corn, wheat, sugarbeet, sugarcane, municipal waste,manure), different types of added energy to the conversion process (e.g., renewable, natural gas, lignite coal), and different co-products (e.g., animal feed, biogas, electricity).Source: CONCAWE, Eucar, Joint Research Centre.

Energy balance and climate impact

Average net (netto) and gross (brutto) biofuels produced per hectare and year, on average arable land, in southern Sweden (Götalands södra slättbyhgder). Translation of the analyzed biofuel option from the left: wheat-ethanol, wheat-biogas, sugarbeet-ethanol, sugarbeet-biogas, rapeseed methyl esther, pasture-biogas, corn-biogas, willow-ethanol, willow-Fischer-Tropsch-diesel, willow-DME/methanol, willow-biomethane, poplar-ethanol, poplar-Fischer-Tropsch-diesel, poplar-DME/methanol, poplar-biomethane.

Börjesson P. 2007. ”Produktionsförutsättningar för biobränslen inom svenskt jordbruk” [Production conditions of bioenergy in Swedish agriculture] and ”Förädling och avsättning av jordbruksbaserade biobränslen” [Conversion and utilisation of biomass from Swedish agriculture]. Two reports (Lund reports No 61 and 62) included as Appendix to ”Bioenergi från jordbruket – en växande resurs” [Appendix to Bioenergy from Swedish agriculture – a growing resource], Statens offentliga utredningar2007:36. Jordbrukets roll som bioenergiproducent Jo 2005:05. Available at http://www.regeringen.se/content/1/c6/08/19/74/5c250bb0.pdf.

Land efficiency

Bäst värde bruttoutbyte

Cellulosa till metan. Bäst värde nettoutbyte.

Multicriteria analysisClimate impact, energy efficiency, land use efficiency, fuel potential/feedstock availability, vehicle

adaptivity, cost, infrastructure (top score = 5)

Volvo, 2007. Climate issues in focus. Publication No 011-949-027, 01-2008 GB, Available at http://www.volvogroup.com/SiteCollectionDocuments/Volvo%20AB/values/environment/climate_issues_in_focus_eng.pdf.

Många höga betyg på DME

Updatedversion existwhere alsoHVO and Electricity areincluded, bothshowing verygood results. Contact Patrik Klintbom for moreinformation.

Another multi-criteriaanalysis

Source: Tsita K.G, Pilavachi P.A. (2013). Evaluation of nextgeneration biomassderived fuels for the transport sector. Energy Policy 62: 443–455.

Best valuebiomethane

Common results from different fuel comparisons

• Forest-based fuels show better results than crop-based fuels.• Biomethane, HVO and DME often comes up as top candidates.• Electricity sometimes not included in the comparisons.• It is difficult to find alternative fuels that can compete with oil-based

fuels when it comes to WTW energy balance. – Obviuos when knowing that more input energy always are needed when converting a

solid feedstock compared to a liquid feedstock. – Maybe energy balance is of less importance if/when renewable electricity (solar, wind)

domintates the electricity mix.

• Coal-based fuels emit double the CO2 compared to oil-based fuels. • There are more renewable options available for substituting fossil

diesel than gasoline.

New types of fuels?

ElectrofuelsHeavy alcohols and ethers

Ammonia?

Example of blendable chemicals in fossil diesel (fit into EN590)

Analysed in the ongoing project ”Future Fuels”

A strategy for introducing 0-100% renewable components into fossil diesel without changes in infrastructure or vehicles.

Production of electrofuels

Electro-lysis

Water (H2O)

Hydrogen (H2)El

CO2 Biomass(C6H10O5)

BiofuelsMethane (CH4)

Methanol (CH3OH)DME (CH3OCH3)

Higher alcohols, e.g., Ethanol (C2H5OH)Higher hydrocarbons, e.g., Gasoline (C8H18)

Biofuelproduction

H2

Electrofuels

Synthesis reactor (e.g. Sabatier, Fischer-Tropsch)

Heat

How to utilize or store possible future excess electricity

How to substitute fossil based fuels in the transportation sector, especially aviation and shipping face challenges utlilzing batteries and fuel cells.

CO2 from air and seawater

CO2 from combustion

Carbon dioxideCO2

5-10 €/tCO2

How to utilizethe maximum of

carbon in the globally limited

amount ofbiomass

Other hydrogen options (H2)

Production cost different electrofuels, 2030 assuming most optimistic (low), least optimistic (high) and median values (base)

Parameters assumed for 2030, 50 MW reactor, CF 80%. Interest rate 5%Economic lifetime 25 yearsInvestment costs:Alkaline electrolyzers€/kWelec

700 (400-900)

Methane reactor €/kWfuel 300 (50-500)Methanol reactor €/kWfuel 500 (300-600)DME reactor €/kWfuel 500 (300-700)FT liquids reactor €/kWfuel 700(400-1000)Gasoline (via meoh) €/kWfuel 900(700-1000)Electrolyzer efficiency 66 (50-74) %Electricity price 50 €/MWh el

CO2 capture 30 €/tCO2O&M 4%Water 1 €/m³

Production costs have the potential to lie in the order of 100 €/MWh (low) or 160-180 €/MWh (base) in future(similar to the most expensive biofuels).

Electrolyser

uncertainties installation & indirect costsFuel synthesis and CO2 capture

Electricity

Costs for electrolyserand electricity dominate

Brynolf S, Taljegård M, Grahn M, Hansson J. (2018). Electrofuels for the transport sector: a review of production costs. Renewable & Sustainable Energy Reviews 81 (2) 1887-1905.

Production cost e-methanol depending on capacity factor

Production costs may lie in the order of 100-150 EUR/MWh in future

Production cost found in literatureFossil fuels 40-140Methane from anaerobic digestion 40-180

Methane from gasification of lignocellulose

70-90

Methanol from gasification of lignocellulose

80-120

DME from gasification of lignocellulose 90-110Ethanol from maize, sugarcane, wheat and waste

70-345

FAME from rapeseed, palm, waste oil 50-210

HVO from palm oil 134-185Synthetic biodiesel from gasification of lignocellulose

120-655

Synthetic biogasoline from gasification of lignocellulose

90

Future production of electrofuels have the potential to compete with the most

expensive biofuels

Brynolf S, Taljegård M, Grahn M, Hansson J. (2018). Electrofuels for the transport sector: a review of production costs. Renewable & Sustainable Energy Reviews 81 (2) 1887-1905.

Annual cost electro-diesel in ICEV (blue) vs hydrogen in FC (green)

Main findings- Expensive investments dominates at low use, expensive fuel dominates at large use.- Electro-diesel can be competitive when vehicles have a short driving range per year.- Hydrogen has advantages when vehicles have long driving distances per year. - The concept of electro-diesel in ICEVs seem to be cost-competitive to H2-FC for cars.

Trucks: H2+FC lowest tot cost (over 30,000 km/yr) Cars: E-diesel+ICEV lowest tot cost (up to 30,000 km/yr)

Trucks Cars

km per year km per yearCommon for long-distancetrucks

Common for cars

Source: Grahn . M. (2017) Can electrofuels in combustion engines be cost-competitive to hydrogen in fuel cells? Conference proceedings, TMFB, Aachen, 20-22 June.

Production cost electro-hydrogen (left) and electro-methanol (right) assuming thatthere is a market for excess heat and oxygen from the electrolysers.

500 174 50 35 51 66 81400 135 38 29 45 60 75300 95 26 23 39 54 70200 55 14 17 33 48 64100 15 2 12 27 42 58

0 10 20 30 40 50CF=10 CF=40 CF=95 CF=95 CF=95 CF=95

Green-marked results indicate a production cost that is equal or below what the industries’ pay for natural gas based hydrogen (left) and methanol (right).Yellow-marked results indicate a production cost that is equal or below doubled price to what industries’ pay for natural gas based options. Red-marked results indicate a production cost that is more than double to what industries´pay for natural gas based options, i.e. difficult to see business opportunities.

We find that there are circumstances when both electro-hydrogen and electro-methanol can be produced at lower cost compared to what industries buy natural gas based fuels. In the methanol case this result appears when average electricity price is 20 EUR/MWh, electrolyser CAPEX is at 400 EUR/kWel or below (i.e. the green marked cells). For more details on assumptions and calculations contact maria-grahn@chalmers.se.

Production costs compared to natural gas based hydrogen, which is assumed can be bought for 50 €/MWh.

Elec

troly

serC

APEX

€/

kWel

(25

yr)

Electricity price €/MWh

Production cost electro-hydrogen [€/MWh]500 485 133 76 95 115 134400 434 117 68 88 107 127300 383 102 61 80 100 119200 333 87 53 73 92 112100 282 71 46 65 85 104

0 10 20 30 40 50CF=10 CF=40 CF=95 CF=95 CF=95 CF=95

Production costs compared to natural gas based methanol, which is assumed can be bought for 72 €/MWh.

Elec

troly

serC

APEX

€/

kWel

(25

yr)

Electricity price €/MWh

Production cost electro-methanol [€/MWh]

Example results on fuel mix for global car fleet using a global cost minimisation energy systems model

Source: Grahn M, Azar C, Williander MI, Anderson JE, Mueller SA and Wallington TJ (2009). Fuel and vehicle technology choices for passenger vehicles in achieving stringent CO2 targets: connections between transportation and other energy sectors. Environmental Science and Technology 43(9): 3365–3371.

Maria Grahn

atte y cost $300/

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

Mill

ion

cars

C)

H2.ICEVNG.ICEV

PETRO.ICEV

PETRO.HEV

H2.FCV

PETRO.PHEVGTL/CTL.PHEV

CO2-target: 450 ppm

ICEV = Internal Combustion engineFCV = Fuel cell vehicleHEV = Hybrid electric vehiclesPHEV = Plug-in electric vehicles

(Electrofuels are not included)

PETRO = Gasoline/DieselBTL= BiofuelsCTL= Fuels based on coalGTL= Fuels based on natural gasNG = Natural gasH2 = Hydrogen

General results:- It is not likely that one single solution will dominate the fuel scenario. - Hybrids and plug-in-hybrids are solutions that have the potential to play a large role in the near future.- Hydrogen is the most expensive solution but still a fuel that may dominate in a long term when oil, natural gas and bioenergy are scarce sources. - Scenarios are most often either dominated by electricity or hydrogen solutions depending on battery prices, fuel cell prices and hydrogen storage cost. - The globally limited amount of biomass can reduce CO2 emissions at a lower cost if it replaces fossil fuels in the stationary energy sector compared to

replacing oil in the transportation sector.

The pre-requsites for Sweden is slightlydifferent from to the global

• Challenges connected to a large scale use in a global perspective do not necessarily apply to the Swedish conditions.

• Advantages for Sweden:• Sparsly populated country => no immediate land constraint• Large biomass potential (tot potential 50-85 TWh/yr according to FFF).• Well developed biomass infrastructure, lovh history of large scale pulp and

paper industry• Well developed infrastructure around E85 and nischmarkets for ED95. • Sweden has set ambitious targets. A fossil independent vehicle fleet by 2030,

no net emissions of GHG by 2045.

Maria Grahn

Conclusions from the FFF-commission report. Roadmap for the road transport sector towards a Sweden without any net

greenhouse gas emissions 2050.

http://www.regeringen.se/content/1/c6/23/07/39/1591b3dd.pdf

(in energy terms)

Mina reflektioner kring framtidens drivmedel• Tre huvudgrupper alternativa drivmedel har potential att komma ner

i nästan nollutsläpp: • bränslen som innehåller kolatomer (biodrivmedel/ elektrobränslen), • el, • vätgas

• Drivmedel som har en fördel är de som • kan blandas i konventionella bränslen (alkoholer, biodiesel, elektrobränslen)• bidrar till mindre bullriga städer och renare luft (el och vätgas) • satsas på inom EU (el, metan och vätgas).

• Det är högst sannolikt att det kommer att utvecklas flera parallella lösningar. • Det finns många fördelar med elfordon i städer. Sannolikt el i städer.• Det finns många utmaningar med el till långväga transporter (speciellt flyg och

sjöfart). Elektrobränslen kan komplettera biodrivmedel för dessa transportslag. • Vänta inte på den enda rätta lösningen.

The electrofuel team

Maria Taljegård, PhD studentEnergy and environmentChalmers University of TechnologyEmail: maria.taljegard@chalmers.se

Selma Brynolf, PostdocEnergy and environmentChalmers University of TechnologyEmail: selma.brynolf@chalmers.se

Julia Hansson, PostdocEnergy and environmentChalmers University of TechnologyEmail: julia.hansson@ivl.se

Maria Grahn, Research leaderEnergy and environmentChalmers University of TechnologyEmail: maria.grahn@chalmers.se

Roman Hackl, ResearcherIVLEmail: roman.hackl@ivl.se

Karin Andersson, ProfessorShipping and Marine Technology Chalmers University of TechnologyEmail: karin.andersson@chalmers.se

Stefan Heyne, ResearcherCITEmail: stefan.heyne@cit.chalmers.se

Sofia Poulikidou, PostdocEnergy and environmentChalmers University of TechnologyEmail: sofiapo@chalmers.se