BIOENERGY IN BRAZILCONSUMPTION AND TRADE

Jose Roberto MoreiraBrazilian Reference Center on

Biomass/IEE/Univ. of Sao Paulo

2005 2030Planted area (Mha) 5.6 13.9Sugar cane production (Mt/yr) 431 1140

Production (Mt/yr)

Planted area

Cane production

Area (million ha)

•Significant growth in ethanol/bioelectricity •Country will continue to be an ethanol exporter

Biofuel Availability – 2007 View

Share of biofuels energyin road transport (2008)

Figure 28a: Ethanol production for different scenarios – 2008-2017

Sugar cane mills geographycal profile in Brazil

EVOLUTION OF AUTO AND LIGHT COMMERCIAL FLEETS IN BRAZIL (OTTO CYCLE)

Mill

ion

of u

nits

Figure 32: Total fuel demand for Otto-cycle light vehicles – 2008-2017

Figure 29 : Potential bioelectricity from sugar cane – Brazil 2008-2020

Law 11.097/2005: Determine minimum percent blend of biodiesel in diesel and monitors the introduction of the new fuel in the market

Allowed Compulsory CompulsoryReality Allowed 2008 = 3% 2009=4% 2010=5%

Figure 16 - Biodiesel Legislation and Reality

Figure 12: Monthly biodiesel production – Brazil 2005-2009

Figure 30: Forecasted biodiesel consumption – Brazil 2008-2017

Figure 31 : Vegetable oil availability – Brazil 2008-2017

•Surprising enough is the volume of investments in the oil sector•Such investments surpass electricity investments; very unusual at globe level

Brazil oil and gas historical reservesMillion boe

Includes only 3 areas

Future

Land

shallow water

deep water

Ultra deep water

Pre-salt

Oil Availability - 2011 View

•Nevertheless, reserves shown are too small•No reference to available total reserves and resources provided

1955

1959

1963

1967

1971

1975

1979

1983

1987

1991

1995

1999

2003

2007

2011

2015

2019

2023

2027

2031

2035

2039

2043

2047

2051

2055

2059

2063

2067

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

Present oil reserves without pre-salt, Expected oil reserves with pre-salt, Oil consumption, and Ethanol oil displacement in High and Low Scenarios

Producing Fields (Million bbl) Peak= 768 Mbbl/Br Reserve=25 billion Oil Consumption BP+trend 1970/2009

Total EOR Pre-salt+Producing Fields Total OilProduction Mbbl

Ethanol Production 5 yrs avg. BEN (Million bbl/y) Low scenario Liquid Fuel+ Electricity Low Scenario

Ethanol Production BEN/Trend 2003/10 High Scenario Liquid Fuel+ Electricity High scenarioYear

Eth

ano

l E

lect

. O

il P

rod

uct

ion

an

d C

on

sum

pti

on

(m

illi

on

bb

l)

Dai

ly L

iqu

id F

uel

Pro

du

ctio

n a

nd

Co

nsu

mp

tio

n (

mil

lio

n b

bl)

Consumption

EUR=25 Billion

REAL DATA

TOTAL 65 Bil-lion

Ethanol+Elect.High Sce-nario

TOTAL 71 Bil-lion

ImportationProduction

Consumption

FORECAST

Total=25 Billion

REAL DATA

Ethanol Elect.. Low Scenario

BEST(BioEthanol for Sustainable Transport)

Venues: Rio de Janeiro, RJ; and São Paulo, SP

The City of Sao Paulo Receives the First Bus Fleet of Diesel Engine Busses Running on Ethanol May

25th, 2011

60 busses already sold10 busses in operation by May 27, 201150 busses in operation by June 30, 2011

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

2,0 3,5 5,0 7,0 8,0

Euro I

Euro II

Euro III

Emission Limits for diesel enginesN

Ox

(g/k

Wh)

MP (g/kWh)

Euro V Euro IV

Third engine generationSecond engine

generationSource:SEKAB

Figure 14 Crop specific LUC. Sources of emissions

Source: Kiel Institute for the World Economy, 2011

Figure 2: Total emission savings (%) using Monte Carlo simulation results (from Laborde 2011, p. 57) for LUC emission values and EU-RED values for WtW emissions

Sugar Cane Bagasse

Wood Wastes from Pulp & Paper Industry

RE costs are still higher than existing energy prices, but in various settings RE is already competitive.

Binary cycle plant

Domestic pellet heating system

Palm oil biodiesel

Small scale CHP (steam turbine)

Figure 18: Charcoal consumption by end-sectors – Brazil 1970-2008