bioenergy and food security in asean

Bioenergy and food security in ASEAN:A FAO tiAn FAO perspective

Beau Damen

OffFAO Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific

Bioenergy Officer

OverviewOverview

11.2

Bioenergy in ASEAN

Bioenergy and food security in ASEAN2.

3.Bioenergy and food security in ASEAN

FAO Bioenergy and food security 3.

4.

FAO Bioenergy and food security

FAO BEFS in ASEAN Project

5. More information

Presentation contentsPresentation contents

Bioenergygyin ASEAN

FAO Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific

Energy in ASEAN + 3Energy in ASEAN 3TPES in ASEAN + 3 by source (ktoe), 2009

Source: IEA, 2011

Total TPES = 3,506,771ktoe

Energy in ASEANEnergy in ASEANTPES in ASEAN by source (ktoe), 2009y

Source: IEA, 2011

Total TPES = 536,335ktoe

Energy in the +3 CountriesEnergy in the 3 CountriesTPES in the +3 Countries by sector (ktoe), 2009y ( ),

Source: IEA,2011,

Total TPES = 2,970,436 ktoe

Energy in ASEAN + 3Energy in ASEAN + 3Final Bioenergy Consumption by Sector, 2009‐ Primary Solid Biofuels (TJ)

Source: IEA, 2011

Energy in ASEAN + 3Energy in ASEAN 3TPES and Bioenergy Share in ASEAN + 3, 2009

Country TPES (Ktoe)Bioenergy percentage of

TPES

Brunei 3123 0%

Cambodia 5182 70.7%

Indonesia 201999 26%

Lao PDR n/a n/a

Malaysia 66826 4.5%

Myanmar 15062 69.9%

Philippines 38842 17 9%Philippines 38842 17.9%

Singapore 18476 0.16%

Thailand 103316 19.9%

Vietnam 64048 39 3%

Source: IE

Vietnam 64048 39.3%

China 2257101 9%

EA, 2012

Japan 471992 1.4%

Republic of Korea 229178 1.3%

Energy in ASEAN + 3Energy in ASEAN 3TPES, Bioenergy Share and Poverty Rate in ASEAN + 3, 2010

Source: IEA,

Country TPES (Ktoe)Bioenergy percentage

of TPES

Ratio of population living on less than $2

per dayYear of poverty

count

Brunei 3123 0% n/a n/a 2012, World B

Brunei 3123 0% n/a n/a

Cambodia 5182 70.7% 53.3% 2008

Indonesia 201999 26% 46.1% 2010

Lao PDR n/a n/a 66.0% 2008 BankMalaysia 66826 4.5% 2.3% 2009

Myanmar 15062 69.9% n/a n/a

Philippines 38842 17.9% 41.5% 2009

Singapore 18476 0.16% n/a n/a

Thailand 103316 19.9% 4.6% 2009

Vietnam 64048 39.3% 43.4% 2008

China 2257101 9% 29.8% 2008

Japan 471992 1.4% n/a n/a

Republic of Korea 229178 1.3% n/a n/a

195 1

72.5

195.1

2008

Southeast Asia

2030

P l i h l i i i ASEANPeople without access to electricity in ASEAN

Modern bioenergyModern bioenergySchematic view of commercial (modern) bioenrgy routesSchematic view of commercial (modern) bioenrgy routes

The focus of my presentationSource: IPCC, 2011, based on IEA Bioenergy, 2009

The focus of my presentation

Modern Bioenergy Outlook - AsiaModern Bioenergy Outlook AsiaActual and Projected Bioenergy Demand in Non‐OECD Asia, 1990 ‐ 2035

Source: IEA

China•362 GW RE (incl. biomass) by 2020•15 billion litres of biofuel by 202015 billion litres of biofuel by 2020

Vietnam•5% RE (incl. biomass) by 2020

Thailand

5% RE (incl. biomass) by 2020•560 million litres of biofuel by 2020

•20% RE (incl. biomass) by 2022•5 billion litres of biofuel by 2022

Philippines

Indonesia5% RE b 2025

Philippines•267 MW biomass by 2030•10% ethanol by 2011

•5% RE by 2025•5% biofuels by 2025

Bi d l d i bBioenergy development driven by government

Why Bioenergy?Why Bioenergy?Net Energy Imports of Selected Countries in ASEAN + 3, 2009

Country Net energy importsNet energy imports as a

share of TPES

Brunei ‐15577 ‐498.8%

Cambodia 1545 29.8%

Indonesia ‐153635 ‐76.1%

Lao PDR n/a n/aLao PDR n/a n/a

Malaysia ‐21712 ‐32.5%

Myanmar ‐7172 ‐47.6%

Philippines 16336 42 1%Philippines 16336 42.1%

Singapore 58916 318.9%

Thailand 47369 45.8%

Source: IEA, 2

Vietnam ‐13830 ‐21.6%

China 274916 12.2%

2012Japan 384459 81.5%

Republic of Korea 198096 86.4%

Why Bioenergy?Why Bioenergy?Projected CO² Emissions in Non‐OECD Asia (MT) 1990‐2035

20

ds

15Thou

sand

10CO²

5

MT

0

1990 2009 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Source: IEA

A question of trade offsA question of trade-offs

Energy

Action by one arm of governmentAction by one arm of government..

A question of trade offsA question of trade-offs

A i l EnergyAgriculture

to realize one policy goal..to realize one policy goal

A question of trade offsA question of trade-offsRural

Development


could have..could have


Development


Environment

unintended..unintended


Development


P

Environment

Poverty

consequences..consequences


DevelopmentTrade

A i l

Trade

EnergyAgriculture

P

Environment

Poverty

for others..for others.


DevelopmentTrade

A i l

Trade

EnergyAgriculture

P

Environment

PovertyForestry

Effective bioenergy policiesEffective bioenergy policies..


DevelopmentTrade Finance

A i l

Trade Finance& planning

EnergyAgriculture

P

Environment

PovertyForestry

require we recognize these trade offs..require we recognize these trade-offs.

Risks & bioenergy develomentRisks & bioenergy develoment

Deforestation Biodiversity loss

Competition for resources

Marginalized small holders

Uncertain emissions loss for resources small‐holdersbenefits

Th t d ff b i ifi tThe trade-offs can be significant

Bioenergygyand food security in ASEAN


Labor

Water

Land

Bioenergy trade implies trade of ag resourcesWh t th t ti l f t fl ?

Water

What are the potential future flows?

Technology

Scientific advances

Bioenergy trade implies trade of ag resourcesWh t th t ti l f t fl ?What are the potential future flows?

Greater Mekongg

Greater Mekong Sub-RegionC t dCase study

Regional bioenergy developmentsRegional bioenergy developments

China 15 billion litres of biofuel consumption by 2020

Biofuels362 GW renewable energy by 2020 including biomass

Biomass

Thailand

p y

5 billion litres of biofuel production by 2022

y g

20% (232GW) renewable energy by 2020 including biomass

Vietnam 550 million litres of biofuel production by 2020

biomass

5% (30GW) renewable energy by 2020 including p y gy y gbiomass

Source: FAO 2010, REN21 2010, IEA 2010

more to come…more to come

Spill over effectsSpill-over effects...China Policy ActionChina - Policy Action• Ethanol tariff reduction & feedstock restrictions• 650 million litres of cassava Cassavaethanol in 2010

Vietnam• Record harvests• Land degradation• New ethanol facilities

Thailand

Lao PDR• Cassava expansion

Thailand• Exports growing along with domestic demand• Pest infestation affecting

• 390 million litre facility proposed

crop Cambodia• Surge in cassava plantings

Thailand cassava outlookThailand cassava outlookThailand

Thousand tons

Competition for export markets likelySource: OAE

Competition for export markets likely

Crop productivityCrop productivity

Cassava yields, selected countries: 1999 - 2009

Source: FAOSTAT

Future growth is possible

Productivity growth and waterProductivity growth and waterThailand

Implications for water resourcesImplications for water resources

Impact on land areaImpact on land areaT

Thailand hailand

Thailand

Hectares Hectares

Source: FAO

Changes possible

Flow on effectsFlow-on effectsThailandThailand

Thousand tons

Source: OAE

Impact on the rice sector

Land degradationLand degradation

Source: UNEP & TERI from IWMI 2010

L d h l d d t i t dLand resources have already deteriorated

Climate implicationsClimate implicationsT

Thailand hailand

Thailand

Fuel type

Land use change results in more emissionsLand use change results in more emissions

Potential impact on food securityPotential impact on food security

Impact on food security:• Strongest where pockets of poverty remain

Impact on food security:

p y

• Generally in rural communities & amongst urban poor

Source: IRRI Needs further investigation

Food security in AsiaFood security in Asia

Undernourishment in 2010 by region (millions)

Region has poor access to sufficient nutritionSource: FAO, 2010

Region has poor access to sufficient nutrition

Undernourishment comparisonUndernourishment comparison

Regional trends in the number of undernourished,1990 to 2010

Source: FAO, 2010

Asia still has a lot of work to do

Food pricesFood pricesThailand380

FAO food price index in real terms: 2005 - 2011

280

330

180

230

Inde

x

80

130

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

Ri i d i i l l il

2 2 2 2 2 2

Food Price Index Cereals Price Index Sugar Price Index

Source: FAO

Rising and increasingly volatile

FAO Bioenergygyand food security


FAO Bioenergy & Food securityFAO, Bioenergy & Food security

• Provide an information platform

FAO BEFS framework aims to:p

• Inform judgements, aid decision‐making & guide actionguide action

• Strengthen relationships and & capacity

Assess trade offs associated with bioenergyAssess trade-offs associated with bioenergy

Natural Resources EndowmentsNatural Resources Endowments

Bioenergy Investment Intervention

Agriculture Agro‐industry Sectors

Agricultural Productivity Impacts

Food Security: Access and Availability‐ Poverty Reduction‐Wages and EmploymentPrices

Outcomes:Areas of concern

‐ Prices‐ Rural Development (livelihoods)

FAO’s BEFS framework

BEFS Analytical FrameworkBEFS Analytical Framework

Bioenergy affects food security through two channels:

Firstly



FirstlyBioenergy competes for

resourcesBioenergy competes for

resources



Food pricesFirstlyBioenergy competes for


resources





resources

Secondly





resources

Bioenergy interventionsBioenergy interventions Secondly





resources

Productivity of

Bioenergy interventionsBioenergy interventions

Productivity of agricultural and

biomass production

Secondlypsystems

Different systemsDifferent systemsSome bioenergy systems imply different levels ofSome bioenergy systems imply different levels of resource competition:

HighCompetition

First generation biofuels from coops

& residues

Secondgeneration biofuels

CHP from dedicated plantations

generation biofuelsfrom woody biomass

Power generationBiogas

have different impacts

LowCompetition

Power generation from municipal

waste

Biogas

…have different impacts

What are the current needs and challenges facing the energy and

agriculture sectors?

Natural ResourcesWhat are the natural resources

Natural Resources

Bioenergy Investment Which bioenergy feedstock and

available for bioenergy production?

AgricultureAgro‐

industry

Bioenergy Investment Which bioenergy feedstock and technologies are feasible/cost effective?

What is the environmental impact of

Agricultural Productivity

What is the environmental impact of different bioenergy production chains?

Food Security: Access and Availability‐ Poverty Reduction‐Wages and Employment

How will changes in food prices affect households?

g p y‐ Prices‐ Rural Development

What is the impact of bioenergydevelopment on the national economy?

BEFS Analytical Framework Key questions

Diagnostic Analysis Monitoring and mitigating food security risks at the national

level

Natural Resources Natural Resource Analysis‐Land Assessment‐Water Resource Management

Monitoring environmental impacts

Bioenergy Investment

Water Resource Management‐Woody Biomass & Residues

impacts

AgricultureAgro‐

industry

Techno‐economic and EnvironmentalAnalysis

‐Production Costs‐Greenhouse Gas (GHG)

Mitigating environmental risks through good practice

Agricultural Productivity

Food Security: Access and Availability‐ Poverty Reduction‐Wages and Employment‐ Prices‐ Rural Development

Socio‐economic Analysis‐Household Food Security‐ Economy‐wide Impacts

Mitigating risks to household food security and negative socio-economic impacts through good practiceRural Development

AnalyticalConceptual Practical

Bioenergy Policy Nexus Mainstreaming BEFS

R l

Finding the entry points Policy Making

RuralDevelopment

Trade Finance

Mainstreaming

BEFS into

& making the case

Agenda Setting

Agric lt re

& planning

NationalDevelopment

NationalD l

policy and planning processe

s

Agenda Setting

EnergyAgriculture Development Planning

Development Planning

s

Environment

PovertyForestry

Meeting the gimplementation challenge Implementation

& Monitoring

Agenda Setting Policy MakingImplementation

& Monitoring

Finding the entry points & making the

case

Mainstreaming BEFS into policy and

planning processes

Meeting the implementation

challenge

Preliminary assessmentUnderstanding policy

Collecting country‐specific information

BEFS Scoping

assessment Budgeting and financingMainstreaming BEFS in

BEFSCItrade‐offsUnderstanding linkages

and influencing policy processes

Mainstreaming BEFS in national & sector li i i

the budgetary process

Mainstreaming BEFS in it i t

BEFSCI Monitoring & project appraisal

Raising awareness & building partnershipsNational consensus and

commitment to

policies, strategies, programmesBEFS Full

assessment BEFSCI Good

monitoring systemsFood security monitoring

Project appraisalcommitment to

sustainable food‐secure bioenergy

Costing, assessing and selecting bioenergypolicy measures

BEFS Capacity

practicesSupporting policy

measuresNational, sector and sub‐

national levels

Strengthening institutions & capacities

Needs assessments

Strengthening institutions & capacities

Capacity Developme

nt Strengthening institutions & capacities

Needs assessmentsWorking mechanisms

Learning by doing Mainstreaming as standard practice

FAO BEFS in ASEANProject


BEFS ASEANBEFS ASEANFAO action:• National capacity building

• Regional cooperationg p

• Regional technical capacity for ASEAN Secretariat

• Formation of national bioenergy policy bodies directed by SOM AMAF & AME

• National and regional BEFS mainstreaming strategies

T t d t h i l t t l• Targeted technical assessments – natural resources, technologies and trade & economic

$0Two year, $0.5 million program

BEFS ASEANBEFS ASEANCha-am Hua Hin Statement on ASEAN Plus ThreeCha-am Hua Hin Statement on ASEAN Plus Three Cooperation on Food Security and Bio-Energy Development - 2009

Develop a comprehensive strategy on sustainable and integrated food and biofuelsproduction and consumption

5.

production and consumption

Promote bio-energy trade and technology innovation to ensure longterm viability of

9.g y

bioenergy

Enhance the partnership with regional and i t ti l i ti

10.international organizations

Foundations

BEFS ASEAN Next stepsBEFS ASEAN – Next steps• Regional inception meetingRegional inception meeting

• Establishing national focal points

•Regional bioenergydevelopment modeling

• BEFS capacity building with ASEC

Id if i l h &• Identify regional research & capacity building partners

BEFS ASEAN PartnersBEFS ASEAN - PartnersCurrent partners:

• ASEC

• ADB

Current partners:

• ADB

• UNIDO

Potential partners:

• JGSEE Thailand

• GBEP

• ???

fLooking for additional regional partners

More informationFAO BEFS


BEFS HQ

BEFS THAILAND

BEFS PERU

BEFS TANZANIA

Bioenergy & Food Security ProjectInitial target countriesInitial target countries

ASEAN

ASEAN +3SouthAsia

ASEAN

Peru

SADCBolivia

Bioenergy & Food Security ProjectGlobal ActivitiesGlobal Activities

FAO Bioenergy WebsiteFAO Bioenergy Website

• FAO view and role on bioenergy

Find....

• Details of FAO global bioenergy initiatives

• Links to Global Bioenergy Partnership• Links to Global Bioenergy Partnership Secretariat (GBEP)

• Electronic FAO Bioenergy publication warehouse

www fao org/bioenergy/en/www.fao.org/bioenergy/en/

BEFS WebsiteBEFS Website

• Full technical and policy reports for h BEFS t

Find....

each BEFS country

• Full description of BEFS Analytical Framework

• Description of activities in each country

• Information on each BEFS Partner Organization

• Links to BEFSCI reports and materialsLinks to BEFSCI reports and materials

www fao org/bioenergy/foodsecurity/befs/www.fao.org/bioenergy/foodsecurity/befs/

Contacts: FAO & BEFSContacts: FAO & BEFS

Asia and the Pacific

Beau Damen – [email protected]

Climate, Energy and Tenure Division (FAO HQ)

Heiner Thofern – [email protected]

Irini Maltsoglou – [email protected]

Andrea Rossi – [email protected]

www fao orgwww.fao.org

Thank youy


bioenergy and food security in asean

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