bio-based products - opportunities and challenges
TRANSCRIPT
The UK’s National Centre for Biorenewable Energy, Fuels and Materials
NNFCC
Bio-Based Products
Opportunities and Challenges
Dr Adrian Higson
February 2012
NNFCC
The UK’s National Centre for Biorenewable Energy, Fuels and Materials
economy
bio-economy
bio-based products
The production of renewable biological resources and the conversion of these resources and waste streams into value added products such as food, feed, bio-based products and bioenergy
Products that are wholly or partly derived from materials of biological origin excluding materials embedded in geological formations and/or fossilised
Background
NNFCC
The UK’s National Centre for Biorenewable Energy, Fuels and Materials
Politically Driven
Consumer Pull
Raw Material Flexibility
Technology Push
Market Dynamics
Brand owner focus Environment Functionality
Industrial Biotech New chemistry
Climate change Mandates/Support
Volatility Hedging Future proofing
NNFCC
The UK’s National Centre for Biorenewable Energy, Fuels and Materials
Comparative Feedstock Pricing
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Comparison of Commodity Indices (2005 = 100)
Crude Oil (Petroleum) Index (monthly)
Commodity Agricultural Raw Materials index (monthly)
Commodity Food Price Index (monthly)
Source: IMF
NNFCC
The UK’s National Centre for Biorenewable Energy, Fuels and Materials
The value of biomass
Increasing value
Decreasing volume
NNFCC
The UK’s National Centre for Biorenewable Energy, Fuels and Materials
Biomass – A love hate relationship!
Strengths • Available on demand
• Carbon source
Weaknesses • Cost
• Physical nature
Opportunities
• Energy generation (heat and power)
• Liquid transport fuels
• Chemicals and materials
Threats • Competition for land
• Environmental pressure
NNFCC
The UK’s National Centre for Biorenewable Energy, Fuels and Materials
• Varying levels of support
• Policy inconsistency
Political
• Large financing requirements for capital projects
Economics
• Food security
• Land rights
Social
• Public perception of GM technologies
Technology
• Climate change agreements
• Energy obligations
Legal
• Biodiversity
• Land use change
Environment
Developing the bio-based economy – The issues
NNFCC
The UK’s National Centre for Biorenewable Energy, Fuels and Materials
Market building - European Lead Market Initiative
• Standards, labels and certification
• Legislation promoting market
development
• Product specific legislation
• Legislation related to biomass
• Encourage Green Public
Procurement
• Financing and funding of research
NNFCC
The UK’s National Centre for Biorenewable Energy, Fuels and Materials
Bio Chemicals and Bio-Based Polymers
(all areas of economy)
Market size
~ 50 million tones
1% 7%
1% 20%
54%
5%
7% 4%
1%
17%
Chemical Derivatives Naval StoresNatural Products OleochemicalsBiopolymers Amino AcidsAlcohols Aliphatic acidsOther
Fermentation Products
NNFCC
The UK’s National Centre for Biorenewable Energy, Fuels and Materials Source IEA Task 42, NNFCC
Opportunity, complexity, and confusion
NNFCC
The UK’s National Centre for Biorenewable Energy, Fuels and Materials
Today’s situation Hurdles
• Lignocellulose deconstruction
• Fermentation scope and yields
• Downstream processing
Game changers
• Synthetic biology
• Synthesis gas fermentation
NNFCC
The UK’s National Centre for Biorenewable Energy, Fuels and Materials
Bio chemical outlook
Strengths
• Consumer preference
• Reduced carbon footprints & fossil energy use
• Novel / Improved function
Weaknesses
• Low volume / High costs
• Immature supply chain
• Market confusion
Opportunities
• Oil price volatility
• Capture C3 and C4 markets
• Co-development with fuel industry
Threats
• Feedstock supply
• Alternative feedstocks (coal, gas)
• Environmental pressure
NNFCC
The UK’s National Centre for Biorenewable Energy, Fuels and Materials
Supply chain questions
• What’s the value proposition in bioplastics?
– Function vs renewable content
• What does the environmental footprint look like?
– greenhouse gas emissions, water impacts
• How big is the potential market opportunity/impact?
– niche or mainstream
– true rate of development
• What do the resource requirements look like?
– Availability, price, impact on other markets
• How will technology develop?
– Synthetic biology, perennial crops etc
Time horizons 2020 2030 2050
NNFCC
The UK’s National Centre for Biorenewable Energy, Fuels and Materials
Bio chemical platforms – Novel or drop in?
Strengths • Drop in – known targets and downstream products
• Novel – exploits attributes of biomass or biological processing
Weaknesses • Drop in – number of unit operations required
• Novel – requirement for product development
Opportunities • Drop in - rapid route to market through existing
infrastructure and know how
• Novel – provides new or improved functionality
Threats
• Drop in – production never achieves cost competitiveness
• Novel – immature supply chain and market awareness
NNFCC
The UK’s National Centre for Biorenewable Energy, Fuels and Materials
ADM
Amyris/M
ichelin
Anellotech
BioAmber
Biocaldol
BioMCN
Braskem
Butamax
Cathay Industrial Biotech
Colbolt TechnologiesDSM
DOW
Draths
DuPont
Eastman Chem
icals
Global Biochem
Global Bioenergies
Glycos Biotechnologies
Green Biologics
Greencol Taiwan Corporation
Genomatica
Gevo
Goodyear/Genencor
India Glycols
Metabolic Explorer
Myriant
Natureworks
Novepha
Purac
Rennovia
Reverdia (DSM/Roquette)
SolvayTM
O
OPX Bio
Verdezyne
Vinythai
Virent
Zeachem
Methanol
Formic Acid
Ethanol
Ethylene
Ethylene Oxide
Ethylene Glycol (MEG)
Acetic Acid
Ethyl acetate
Epichlorohydrin
Acetone
isoPropanol
Propylene
Propylene Glycol
1,3-Propanediol
Lactic acid
Acrylic Acid
n-Butanol
iso-Butanol
iso-Butylene
Butadiene
Succinic acid
2,3-Butanediol
1,4-Butanediol
Tetrahydrofuran
Isoprene
Adipic acid
HMDA
Benzene
Toluene
Paraxylene
Terephthalic acid
Styrene
Expansion of drop-in bio-based chemicals
Companies working on bio chemicals
Bio
ch
em
ical
s
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The UK’s National Centre for Biorenewable Energy, Fuels and Materials
Ethylene Polyethylenes
Styrene Monomer
Ethylene Oxide/Glycol
EDC
Other
Polymers/Rubbers
Polyester
PVC
Alpha Olefins
PVA
Ethanol
60%
7%
14%
12%
7%
Source: Nexant ChemSystems
Bio chemical platforms
Ethanol production ~ 60 million tonnes Ethylene production ~ 110 million tonnes
NNFCC
The UK’s National Centre for Biorenewable Energy, Fuels and Materials
Succinic Acid 1,4-ButanediolPolybutylene
Terephthalate
Copolyester Ethers
Thermoplastic Polyurethanes
Spandex Fibres
Tetrahydrofuran
Solvent
Polytetramethylene Ether Glycol
g-Butyrolactone
Fine & Speciality Chemicals
N-Methyl -2-Pyrrolidone
Fine & Speciality Chemicals
2-Pyrrolidone
Fine & Speciality Chemicals
N-Vinyl-2-Pyrrolidone
Polyvinyl Pyrrolidone
Deicers/Coolent
Plasticisers
Fuel Additives
Bio chemical platforms
Source: Nexant ChemSystems
NNFCC
The UK’s National Centre for Biorenewable Energy, Fuels and Materials
Production regions
Geographical regions offer different opportunities
and pose different challenges e.g.
• Feedstock sustainability and availability?
• Access to skills and wider business support?
• Access to downstream markets?
NNFCC
The UK’s National Centre for Biorenewable Energy, Fuels and Materials
Bio Polymer Scenarios - land requirements (2030)
0
10
20
30
40
50
% o
f av
aila
ble
lan
d
Chemical driven
Biofuel stalled
Biofuel driven
Bioeconomy
Plastic demand – 428 million tonnes
Land availability – 250-800 million ha (Source FAO)
NNFCC
The UK’s National Centre for Biorenewable Energy, Fuels and Materials
raw material
Energy Cycle Material Cycle
Maximising resource use
NNFCC
The UK’s National Centre for Biorenewable Energy, Fuels and Materials
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• Future Market Analysis
• Feedstock Logistics Planning
• Sustainability Strategy
Development
• Technology evaluation & associated
due diligence
• Project feasibility assessment
• Policy and regulatory support