binscatter: binned scatterplots in stata - michael stepner · · 2018-03-08binscatter: binned...
TRANSCRIPT
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binscatter:Binned Scatterplots in Stata
Michael Stepner
MIT
August 1, 2014
Michael Stepner binscatter
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Motivation
Binned scatterplots are an informative and versatile way ofvisualizing relationships between variables
They are useful for:
I Exploring your data
I Communicating your results
Intimately related to regression
Any coefficient of interest from an OLS regression can bevisualized with a binned scatterplot
Can graphically depict modern identification strategies
RD, RK, event studies
Michael Stepner binscatter
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Familiar Ground
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Scatter Plots
Scatterplots:
Are the most basic way of visually representing therelationship between two variables
Show every data point
Become crowded when you have lots of observationsI Very informative in small samples
I Not so useful with big datasets
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N=2231
Source: National Longitudinal Survey of Women 1988 (nlsw88)
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OLS Regression
Linear regression:
Gives a number (coefficient) that describes the observedassociation
I “On average, 1 extra year of job tenure is associated with an$m higher wage”
Gives us a framework for inference about the relationship(statistical significance, confidence intervals, etc.)
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. reg wage tenure
Source | SS df MS Number of obs = 2231
-------------+------------------------------ F( 1, 2229) = 72.66
Model | 2339.38077 1 2339.38077 Prob > F = 0.0000
Residual | 71762.4469 2229 32.1949066 R-squared = 0.0316
-------------+------------------------------ Adj R-squared = 0.0311
Total | 74101.8276 2230 33.2295191 Root MSE = 5.6741
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
wage | Coef. Std. Err. t P>|t| [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
tenure | .1858747 .0218054 8.52 0.000 .1431138 .2286357
_cons | 6.681316 .1772615 37.69 0.000 6.333702 7.028931
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
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binscatter: step-by-step introduction
Michael Stepner binscatter
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binscatter: step-by-step introduction
Let’s walk through what happens when you type:
. binscatter wage tenure
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. binscatter wage tenure
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binscatter: Summary
To create a binned scatterplot, binscatter
1 Groups the x-axis variable into equal-sized bins
2 Computes the mean of the x-axis and y-axis variables withineach bin
3 Creates a scatterplot of these data points
4 Draws the population regression line
binscatter supports weights
I weighted bins
I weighted means
I weighted regression line
Michael Stepner binscatter
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Binscatter and Regression: intimately linked
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Conditional Expectation Function
Consider two random variables: Yi and Xi
The conditional expectation function (CEF) is
E[Yi |Xi = x ] ≡ h(x)
The CEF tells us the mean value of Yi when we see Xi = x
The CEF is the best predictor of Yi given Xi
I in the sense that it minimizes Mean Squared Error
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Regression CEF Theorem
Suppose we run an OLS regression:
Yi = α + βXi + ε
We obtain the estimated coefficients α, β
Regression fit line: h(x) = α + βx
Regression CEF Theorem:
The regression fit line h(x) = α + βx is the best linearapproximation to the CEF, h(x) = E[Yi |Xi = x ]
I in the sense that it minimizes Mean Squared Error
Michael Stepner binscatter
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binscatter: CEF and regression fit line
A typical binned scatterplot shows two related objects:
a non-parametric estimate of the CEFI the binned scatter points
the best linear estimate of the CEFI the regression fit line
Michael Stepner binscatter
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h(x) = α + βx
E[ y | Q1 < x ≤ Q2 ]
E[ y | Q8 < x ≤ Q9 ]
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Interpreting binscatters
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binscatters: informative about standard errors
If the binned scatterpoints are tight to the regression line, theslope is precisely estimated
I regression standard error is small
If the binned scatterpoints are dispersed around the regressionline, the slope is imprecisely estimated
I regression standard error is large
I Dispersion of binned scatterpoints around the regression lineindicates statistical significance
Michael Stepner binscatter
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ε ~ N(0, 0.2)
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Coef = 0.199 (0.002)
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ε ~ N(0, 2.0)
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binscatters: not informative about R2
R2 tells you what fraction of the individual variation in Y isexplained by the regressors
A binned scatterplot collapses all the individual variation,showing only the mean within each bin
Michael Stepner binscatter
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binscatters: not informative about R2
The same binscatter can be generated with:
enormous variance in Y |X = x
or almost no individual variance
I because binscatter only shows E[Y |X = x ]
Michael Stepner binscatter
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N=200 R2 = 0.967
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Coef = 0.200 (0.003)
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binscatters: informative about functional form
Many different forms of underlying data can give the sameregression results
I Some examples from Anscombe (1973)...
Michael Stepner binscatter
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Anscombe (1973): Dataset 1Earnings
($1000)
Years of Schooling
β=0.5 (0.12)
Public Economics Lectures () Part 1: Introduction 9 / 49
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Earnings
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Years of Schooling
β=0.5 (0.12)
Anscombe (1973): Dataset 2
Public Economics Lectures () Part 1: Introduction 10 / 49
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Earnings
($1000)
Years of Schooling
β=0.5 (0.12)
Anscombe (1973): Dataset 3
Public Economics Lectures () Part 1: Introduction 11 / 49
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Earnings
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Years of Schooling
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Anscombe (1973): Dataset 4
Public Economics Lectures () Part 1: Introduction 12 / 49
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binscatters: informative about functional form
Suppose the true data generating process is logarithmic
wagei = 10 + log(tenurei ) + εi
. reg wage tenure
Source | SS df MS Number of obs = 500
-------------+------------------------------ F( 1, 498) = 281.25
Model | 317.940139 1 317.940139 Prob > F = 0.0000
Residual | 562.975924 498 1.13047374 R-squared = 0.3609
-------------+------------------------------ Adj R-squared = 0.3596
Total | 880.916063 499 1.76536285 Root MSE = 1.0632
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
wage | Coef. Std. Err. t P>|t| [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
tenure | .1841569 .0109811 16.77 0.000 .1625819 .2057318
_cons | 10.28268 .0961947 106.89 0.000 10.09369 10.47168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
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binscatters: informative about functional form
Now forget that I ever told you that...
You’re just handed the data.
. reg wage tenure
Source | SS df MS Number of obs = 500
-------------+------------------------------ F( 1, 498) = 281.25
Model | 317.940139 1 317.940139 Prob > F = 0.0000
Residual | 562.975924 498 1.13047374 R-squared = 0.3609
-------------+------------------------------ Adj R-squared = 0.3596
Total | 880.916063 499 1.76536285 Root MSE = 1.0632
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
wage | Coef. Std. Err. t P>|t| [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
tenure | .1841569 .0109811 16.77 0.000 .1625819 .2057318
_cons | 10.28268 .0961947 106.89 0.000 10.09369 10.47168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Michael Stepner binscatter
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binscatters: informative about functional form
Run a linear regression:
wagei = α + βtenurei + εi
. reg wage tenure
Source | SS df MS Number of obs = 500
-------------+------------------------------ F( 1, 498) = 281.25
Model | 317.940139 1 317.940139 Prob > F = 0.0000
Residual | 562.975924 498 1.13047374 R-squared = 0.3609
-------------+------------------------------ Adj R-squared = 0.3596
Total | 880.916063 499 1.76536285 Root MSE = 1.0632
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
wage | Coef. Std. Err. t P>|t| [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
tenure | .1841569 .0109811 16.77 0.000 .1625819 .2057318
_cons | 10.28268 .0961947 106.89 0.000 10.09369 10.47168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Michael Stepner binscatter
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binscatters: informative about functional form
. binscatter wage tenure
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binscatters: informative about functional form
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Michael Stepner binscatter
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binscatters: informative about functional form
If the underlying CEF is smooth, binscatter provides aconsistent estimate of the CEF
I As N gets large, holding the number of quantiles constant,each binned scatter point approaches the true conditionalexpectation
Michael Stepner binscatter
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binscatters: informative about functional form
. binscatter wage tenure in 1/500
91
01
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21
3w
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0 5 10 15tenure
N=500
Michael Stepner binscatter
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binscatters: informative about functional form
. binscatter wage tenure in 1/5000
91
01
11
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3w
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0 5 10 15tenure
N=5,000
Michael Stepner binscatter
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binscatters: informative about functional form
. binscatter wage tenure in 1/5000000
91
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0 5 10 15tenure
N=5,000,000
Michael Stepner binscatter
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Interpreting binscatters: moral of the story
1 Binned scatterplots are informative about standard errors
2 Binned scatterplots are not informative about R2
3 And binned scatterplots are informative about functional form
Michael Stepner binscatter
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How many bins?
Michael Stepner binscatter
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How many bins?
What is the “best” number of bins to use?
Default in binscatter is 20
in my personal experience, this default works very well
Optimal number of bins to accurately represent the CEFdepends on curvature of the underlying CEF
which is unknown (that’s why we’re approximating it!)
I a smooth function can be well approximated with few points
I a function with complex local behaviour requires many pointsto approximate its shape
Michael Stepner binscatter
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Let’s play a quick game of...
What function is it?
![Page 53: binscatter: Binned Scatterplots in Stata - Michael Stepner · · 2018-03-08binscatter: Binned Scatterplots in Stata Michael Stepner MIT August 1, 2014 Michael Stepner binscatter](https://reader038.vdocuments.site/reader038/viewer/2022102812/5adc3fe57f8b9a1a088bb84c/html5/thumbnails/53.jpg)
Round 1:
05
10
15
20
y
0 5 10 15 20x
5 bins
Michael Stepner binscatter
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Round 1: Linear
05
10
15
20
y
0 5 10 15 20x
20 bins
Michael Stepner binscatter
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Round 2:
05
10
15
20
y
0 5 10 15 20x
5 bins
Michael Stepner binscatter
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Round 2: Cubic
05
10
15
20
y
0 5 10 15 20x
20 bins
Michael Stepner binscatter
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Round 3:
05
10
15
20
y
0 5 10 15 20x
5 bins
Michael Stepner binscatter
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Round 3:
05
10
15
20
y
0 5 10 15 20x
20 bins
Michael Stepner binscatter
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Round 3: Sinusoidal
05
10
15
20
y
0 5 10 15 20x
100 bins
Michael Stepner binscatter
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binscatter: Multivariate Regression
Michael Stepner binscatter
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binscatter: Multivariate Regression
The use of binned scatterplots is not restricted to studyingsimple relationships with one x-variable
binscatter can use partitioned regression to illustrate therelationship between two variables while controlling for otherregressors
Michael Stepner binscatter
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Partitioned regression: FWL theorem
Suppose we’re interested in the relationship between y and xin the following multivariate regression:
y = α + βx + ΓZ + ε
Option 1: Run the full regression with all regressors, obtain β
Option 2: Partitioned regression
1 Regress y on Z ⇒ residuals ≡ y
2 Regress x on Z ⇒ residuals ≡ x
3 Regress y on x ⇒ coefficient = β
I The β obtained using full regression and partitioned regressionare identical
Michael Stepner binscatter
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binscatter: Applying partitioned regression
We’re interested in the relationship between wage and tenure,but want to control for total work experience:
wage = α + β tenure + γ experience + ε
Could directly apply partitioned regression:
. reg wage experience
. predict wage_r, residuals
. reg tenure experience
. predict tenure_r, residuals
. binscatter wage_r tenure_r
The procedure is built into binscatter:
. binscatter wage tenure, controls(experience)
Michael Stepner binscatter
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. binscatter wage tenure, controls(experience)
56
78
91
0w
ag
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0 5 10 15 20tenure
Coef = 0.19 (0.02)
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. binscatter wage tenure, controls(experience)
56
78
91
0w
ag
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−5 0 5 10 15tenure
Coef = 0.04 (0.03)
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by-variables
Michael Stepner binscatter
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Plotting multiple series using a by-variable
binscatter will plot a separate series for each group
each by-value has its own scatterpoints and regression line
the by-values share a common set of binsI constructed from the unconditional quantiles of the x-variable
Michael Stepner binscatter
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. binscatter wage age, by(race)
46
81
0w
ag
e
34 36 38 40 42 44age
race=white race=black
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. binscatter wage age, by(race) absorb(occupation)
46
81
0w
ag
e
34 36 38 40 42 44age
race=white race=black
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RD and RK designs
Michael Stepner binscatter
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RD and RK designs
Binned scatterplots are very useful for illustratingregression discontinuities (RD) or regression kinks (RK)
Consider a wage schedule where the first 3 yearsare probationary
After 3 years, receive a salary bump
After 3 years, steady increase in salary for each additional year
Michael Stepner binscatter
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RD design
. binscatter wage tenure, line(none)
78
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0 2 4 6 8 10 12tenure
Michael Stepner binscatter
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RD design
. binscatter wage tenure, discrete line(none)
78
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1w
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Michael Stepner binscatter
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RD design
. binscatter wage tenure, discrete rd(2.5)
78
91
01
1w
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0 2 4 6 8 10 12tenure
Michael Stepner binscatter
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RK design
The firm decides to cap the wage schedule after15 years of tenure
No more salary increases past 15 years
Michael Stepner binscatter
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RK design
. binscatter wage tenure, line(none)
78
91
01
11
2w
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0 5 10 15 20 25tenure
Michael Stepner binscatter
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RK design
. binscatter wage tenure, discrete line(none)
78
91
01
11
2w
ag
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0 5 10 15 20 25tenure
Michael Stepner binscatter
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RK design
. binscatter wage tenure, discrete rd(2.5 14.5)
78
91
01
11
2w
ag
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0 5 10 15 20 25tenure
Michael Stepner binscatter
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RD and RK designs
Important caution:
The rd() option in binscatter only affects the regression lines
I It does not affect the binning procedure
I A bin could contain observations on both sides of thediscontinuity, and average them together
Implications:
Doesn’t matter with discrete x-variable and option discreteI No binning is performed, each x-value is its own bin
With continuous x-variable, need to manually create binsI Use xq() to specify variable with correctly constructed bins
I A future version of binscatter respect RDs when binning
Michael Stepner binscatter
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Event Studies
Michael Stepner binscatter
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Event Studies
binscatter makes it easy to create event study plots.
Suppose we have a panel of people, with yearly observations oftheir wage and employer:
We observe when people change employers
For each person with a job switch
Define year 0 as the year they start a new job
I So year -1 is the year before a job switch
I Year 1 is the year after a job switch
Michael Stepner binscatter
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. binscatter wage eventyear, line(connect) xline(-0.5)
77
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−4 −3 −2 −1 0 1 2 3 4Years Since Job Switch
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Event Studies
Now suppose we also know whether they were laid off at theirprevious job.
I Does the wage experience of people who are laid off differfrom those who quit voluntarily?
Michael Stepner binscatter
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. binscatter wage eventyear, line(connect) xline(-0.5)
> by(layoff)
78
91
01
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−4 −3 −2 −1 0 1 2 3 4Years Since Job Switch
layoff=0 layoff=1
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Final Remarks
Michael Stepner binscatter
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Final Remarks
binscatter is optimized to run quickly and efficiently in largedatasets
It can be installed from the Stata SSC repository
I ssc install binscatter
These slides and other documentation is posted on thebinscatter website:
www.michaelstepner.com/binscatter
Michael Stepner binscatter
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References
Michael Stepner binscatter
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Examples of binscatter used in research
Chetty, Raj, John N Friedman, and Emmanuel Saez. 2013. “UsingDifferences in Knowledge Across Neighborhoods to Uncover the Impacts ofthe EITC on Earnings.” American Economic Review, 103 (7): 2683–2721.
Chetty, Raj, John N. Friedman, and Jonah Rockoff. 2014. “Measuring theImpacts of Teachers I: Evaluating Bias in Teacher Value-Added Estimates.”American Economic Review, forthcoming.
Chetty, Raj, John N. Friedman, and Jonah Rockoff. 2014. “Measuring theImpacts of Teachers II: Teacher Value-Added and Student Outcomes inAdulthood.” American Economic Review, forthcoming.
Chetty, Raj, John N. Friedman, Soren Leth-Petersen, Torben Nielsen, andTore Olsen. 2013. “Active vs. Passive Decisions and Crowdout inRetirement Savings Accounts: Evidence from Denmark.” Quarterly Journalof Economics, forthcoming.
Michael Stepner binscatter
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References for this talk
Angrist, Joshua D. and Jorn-Steffen Pischke. 2008. Mostly HarmlessEconometrics: An Empiricist’s Companion, Princeton, NJ: PrincetonUniversity Press.
Anscombe, F. J. 1973. “Graphs in Statistical Analysis.” The AmericanStatistician, 27 (1): 17.
Chetty, Raj. 2012. “Econ 2450a: Public Economics Lectures.” Lecture Slides,Harvard University. http://www.rajchetty.com/index.php/lecture-videos.
Michael Stepner binscatter