bim and trends in construction | empowering you in a bim world

David BainResearch Manager, RIBA Enterprises

BIM and Trends in the Construction Industry

Overview

• Where we are

• Challenges for the Industry

• BIM now and in the future


Where we are

Where we are

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

80.0

85.0

90.0

95.0

100.0

105.0

110.0

115.0

120.0

92.0

116.5

Construction Output in Great Britain - 1997 to 2008Source: ONS - Volume Seasonally Adjusted Index Numbers - 2011 = 100

Where we are

Construction Output in Great Britain - 2008 to 2016Source: ONS - Volume Seasonally Adjusted Index Numbers - 2011 = 100

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4 Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4 Q1

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

80.0

85.0

90.0

95.0

100.0

105.0

110.0

115.0

120.0116.5

111.1

Where we are

Construction Output in Great Britain

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4 Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4 Q1

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

Where we are

GDP and sectoral output - 2008 to 2016Source ONS: GDP and main components

2008 Q

1

2008 Q

2

2008 Q

3

2008 Q

4

2009 Q

1

2009 Q

2

2009 Q

3

2009 Q

4

2010 Q

1

2010 Q

2

2010 Q

3

2010 Q

4

2011 Q

1

2011 Q

2

2011 Q

3

2011 Q

4

2012 Q

1

2012 Q

2

2012 Q

3

2012 Q

4

2013 Q

1

2013 Q

2

2013 Q

3

2013 Q

4

2014 Q

1

2014 Q

2

2014 Q

3

2014 Q

4

2015 Q

1

2015 Q

2

2015 Q

3

2015 Q

4

2016 Q

1 80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

Total

Services

Production

Construction

Where we are

Construction Output vs Architects' New CommissionsSource: Bank of England - ONS Construction Output and Mirza Nacey Construction Futures

2010 Q1

Q2 Q3 Q4 2011 Q1

Q2 Q3 Q4 2012 Q1

Q2 Q3 Q4 2013 Q1

Q2 Q3 Q4 2014 Q1

Q2 Q3 Q4 2015 Q1

Q2 Q3 Q4 2016 Q1

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

140.0

160.0

Architects' New Commissions Construction Output

Question time

Q1. In the next twelve months, I expect my organisation’s workload to:

1. Increase

2. Stay the same

3. Decrease

4. Don’t know

Voting question

Where we are

How do you expect your architectural workload to change over the next three months?

Source: RIBA Future Trends Survey April 2016

03-1005-10

07-1009-10

11-1001-11

03-1105-11

07-1109-11

11-1101-12

03-1205-12

07-1209-12

11-1201-13

03-1305-13

07-1309-13

11-1301-14

03-1405-14

07-1409-14

11-1401-15

03-1505-15

07-1509-15

11-1501-16

03-16-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

Where we are

Output balance and architects' outlookSource: RIBA Future Trends Survey July 2015 & ONS

03-1005-10

07-1009-10

11-1001-11

03-1105-11

07-1109-11

11-1101-12

03-1205-12

07-1209-12

11-1201-13

03-1305-13

07-1309-13

11-1301-14

03-1405-14

07-1409-14

11-1401-15

03-1505-15

07-1509-15

11-1501-16

03-16

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

Balance Construction Output

Where we are

2014 2015 2016 2017 20180.0%1.0%2.0%3.0%4.0%5.0%6.0%7.0%8.0%

£M 115,000

£M 120,000

£M 125,000

£M 130,000

£M 135,000

£M 140,000

£M 145,0007.5%

3.4%

2.0%2.9% 2.6%

% change Value (£M)

Experian Construction output ForecastSource: Experian

Question time

Q2. In the past year, my organisation has worked on projects…

1. In the UK

2. And/or in other parts of Europe

3. And/or in other parts of the world

4. Don’t know

Voting question

Where we are

Architectural Services Balance of PaymentsSource: ONS

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20140 £m

100 £m

200 £m

300 £m

400 £m

500 £m

600 £m

21 19 25 29 37

111 93

357

297

378 369 351

484440

Imports Exports

Urbanization & Globalization

Urbanisation - 1970

Urbanisation - UN ProjectionsSource: ONS

1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 20500 B

1 B

2 B

3 B

4 B

5 B

6 B

7 B

8 B

9 B

10 B

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Total World Population Urban Population % Urban

Urbanisation - 1970

Urbanisation - 2014

Urbanisation - 2030

So, in the 15 years between 2015 and 20301.2 billion people will need urban accommodation.

This works out as:

500 people per building 2.2M buildings250 people per building 4.4M buildings100 people per building 11M buildings10 people per building 110M buildings5 people per building 220M buildings

Urbanisation - 2030

Urbanisation – the reality


• The world’s urban population has grown from 746m in 1950 to 4bn in 2015

• It’s projected to grow by 2.5bn by 2050, to 6.3bn in 2050 with nearly 90% of the increase concentrated in Asia and Africa

• India, China and Nigeria are expected to account for 37% of the projected growth

• India alone is projected to add 404m urban dwellers, China 292m and Nigeria 212m

• As the world continues to urbanize, sustainable development challenges will be concentrated in cities, particularly in the lower-middle-income countries where the pace of urbanization is fastest

• Integrated policies are needed to improve the lives of both urban and rural dwellers


2011 2012 2020 2025 2030 2035 20400

100200300400500600700800900

OECD Other China IndiaWorld energy consumption by region

(Quadrillion Btu)Source: International Energy Agency


Source: International Energy Agency


Buildings globally account for:

• 40 % of Primary energy use (50 % if we include embedded energy in manufacturing the materials used to construct them)

• 30-40 % of Final energy use (the energy delivered after loss in production and distribution of energy)

• In EU, 36 % of GHG emission comes from buildings

Source: World Business Council of Sustainable Development 2009

Building Information Modelling

"This Government's four year strategy for BIM implementation will change the dynamics and behaviours of the construction supply chain, unlocking new, more efficient and collaborative ways of working. This whole sector adoption of BIM will put us at the vanguard of a new digital construction era and position the UK to become the world leaders in BIM.“

Francis MaudeMinister for the Cabinet Office

UK Government strategy

UK Government strategy

Lower emissions50%Reduction in greenhouse gas emissions in the built environment.

Faster delivery50%Reduction in the overall time, from inception to completion, fornew build and refurbished assets.

Lower costs33%Reduction in the initial cost of construction and the whole life cost of built assets.

Improvement in exports50%Reduction in the trade gap between total Exports and total imports for constructionproducts and materials.


Strategy and Brie

f

Design

Construction

Hand

over and In-use


The scientific method "a method or procedure, consisting in systematic observation, measurement, and experiment, and the formulation, testing, and modification of hypotheses.”

Hypothesis

Formulation

Experiment

Design

Experiment

Observation and

Measurement

Hypothesis

modification

Strategy & Brief

Design

Constructi

on

Hand over

and in use

Learning

s

NBS National BIM Report (2011-2016)

theNBS.com

David [email protected]

Questions?

bim and trends in construction | empowering you in a bim world

Technology