Science MissionDirectorate

Overview of NASA Research in Carbon Overview of NASA Research in Carbon Data Fusion and Data AssimilationData Fusion and Data AssimilationCarbon Fusion Workshop, May, 2006Carbon Fusion Workshop, May, 2006

•Bill Emanuel•Program Scientist, Terrestrial Ecology•Carbon Cycle & Ecosystems Focus Area

NASA’s Role in Earth ScienceNASA’s Role in Earth Science

2006 NASA Strategic Plan2006 NASA Strategic Plan

NASA’s Mission: To pioneer the future in space exploration, scientific discovery, and aeronautics research.

Develop a balanced overall program of science, exploration, and aeronautics consistent with the redirection of the human spaceflight program to focus on exploration.

Study Earth from space to advance scientific understanding and meet societal needs.

Research activities focus on providing data and information derived from remote sensing systems to answer the following science questions:

• How are global ecosystems changing?

• What changes are occurring in global land cover and land use, and what are their causes?

• How do ecosystems, land cover and biogeochemical cycles respond to and affect global environmental change?

• What are the consequences of land cover and land use change for human societies and the sustainability of ecosystems?

• What are the consequences of climate change and increased human activities for coastal regions?

• How will carbon cycle dynamics and terrestrial and marine ecosystems change in the future?

Carbon Cycle & Ecosystems Focus AreaCarbon Cycle & Ecosystems Focus Area

U.S. Climate Change Science Program (CCSP)U.S. Climate Change Science Program (CCSP)

• President’s Climate Change Research Initiative, June, 2001.

• Integrates the research of 13 Federal agencies.

• Includes the U.S. Global Change Research Program.

• Strategic Plan, July, 2003.• Chapter 7 describes Carbon Cycle research

within the CCSP.

Atmospheric CompositionClimate Variability and ChangeGlobal Water CycleLand-Use/Land-Cover ChangeGlobal Carbon CycleEcosystemsHuman Contributions and Responses

Surface and Aircraft MeasurementsSurface and Aircraft Measurements

T

2002 2010 2012 2014 20152004

Reduced flux uncertainties; global carbon dynamics

Funded

Unfunded

Global Ocean Carbon / Particle Abundance

N. America’s carbon budget quantified

Global Atmospheric CO2 (OCO)

2006 2008

Reduced flux uncertainties; coastal carbon dynamics

NA Carbon NA Carbon Global C Cycle

T = Technology development

Regional carbon sources/sinks quantified for planet

IPCC IPCC

Effects of tropical deforestation quantified; uncertaintiesin tropical carbon source reduced

= Field Campaign

Physiology & Functional Types

Go

als:

Glo

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pro

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and

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fin

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clim

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Vegetation 3-D Structure, Biomass, & Disturbance T Terrestrial carbon stocks &

species habitat characterized

Models w/improved ecosystem functions

High-Resolution Atmospheric CO2 Sub-regional sources/sinks

Integrated global analyses

CH4 sources characterized and quantified

Report

P

Vegetation (AVHRR, MODIS)

Ocean Color (SeaWiFS, MODIS)

Land Cover (Landsat) LDCM Land Cover (OLI)

Vegetation, Fire (AVHRR, MODIS) Ocean/Land (VIIRS/NPP) Ocean/Land (VIIRS/NPOESS)

Models & Computing Capacity

Case Studies

Process UnderstandingImprovements:

Human-Ecosystems-Climate Interactions (Model-Data Fusion, Assimilation); Global Air-Sea Flux

T

Partnership

N. American Carbon Program

Land Use Change in Amazonia

Global CH4; Wetlands, Flooding & Permafrost

Global C Cycle

Kn

ow

led

ge

Bas

e

2002: Global productivity and land cover resolution coarse; Large uncertainties in biomass, fluxes, disturbance, and coastal events

Systematic Observations

Process controls; errors in sink reduced

Coastal Carbon

Southern Ocean Carbon Program, Air-Sea CO2 Flux

Carbon Cycle and Ecosystems Roadmap

TransCom Inverse Model Comparisons TransCom Inverse Model Comparisons

Inverse model solution indicate a net carbon sink in temperate North America.

TransCom. Gurney et al. 2002. Nature 415:626–630. (http://transcom.colostate.edu/)

U.S. North American Carbon ProgramU.S. North American Carbon Program

The central objective of the U.S. North American Carbon Program is to measure and understand carbon stocks and the sources and sinks of CO2, CH4, and CO in North America and in

adjacent ocean regions.

• Approaching 120 projects.• Involving more than 200

investigators.• About 10 major observation &

experimental networks.• A focus for remote sensing

observations and research.• Developing collaboration with

Mexico & Canada.

NACP Science PlanNACP Science Plan

• Published in 2002• Prepared by the U.S. Carbon

Cycle Science Steering Group• Steven Wofsy and Robert

Harriss, Co-Chairs• Describes a broad science

questions, goals, and a framework for a North American Carbon Program.

U.S. NACP Science QuestionsU.S. NACP Science Questions

1. What is the carbon balance of North America and adjacent oceans? What are the geographic patterns of fluxes of CO2, CH4, and CO? How is the balance changing over time? (Diagnosis)

2. What processes control the sources and sinks of CO2, CH4, and CO, and how do the controls change with time? (Attribution/Processes)

3. Are there potential surprises (could sources increase or sinks disappear)? (Prediction)

4. How can we enhance and manage long-lived carbon sinks ("sequestration"), and provide resources to support decision makers? (Decision support)

U.S. NACP GoalsU.S. NACP Goals

• Develop quantitative scientific knowledge, robust observations, and models to determine the emissions and uptake of CO2, CH4, and CO, changes in carbon stocks, and the factors regulating these processes for North America and adjacent ocean basins.

• Develop the scientific basis to implement full carbon accounting on regional and continental scales. This is the knowledge base needed to design monitoring programs for natural and managed CO2 sinks and emissions of CH4.

• Support long-term quantitative measurements of fluxes, sources, and sinks of atmospheric CO2 and CH4, and develop forecasts for future trends.

Observations

U.S. NACP ApproachU.S. NACP Approach

Observations & Experiments Science Results Estimates-Uncertainties

Predictive Models

Experiments

Diagnostic Models

Model-Data Fusion

Dynamic Maps

Decision Support

MultipleMultiple--Scale Scale Observations and ExperimentsObservations and Experiments

µm

m

ha

10 km

1000 km

Downscaling

Verification

Up-scaling

Prediction

NACP Data Assimilation FrameworkNACP Data Assimilation Framework

Integration Figure

4-D atmospheric data: CO2, CH4, CO

Remote sensing of land, oceans

Flux tower data

Land cover, land use, historical, inventory data, in situ ocean data

Forecast winds

surface, airborne,

satellite

Diagnostic modelsdata fusion,retrospective real-time

Surface Atmosphere fluxes (spatially/temporally resolved)

Sum of process data, models

North American sources and sinks for: CO 2, CH4, CO

Meteorological input data (sondes , radiances)

Bottom-up, process models

Mid-Continent Geographic DomainMid-Continent Geographic Domain

USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) Major Land Resource Areas summarize distributions of climatic conditions and soil characteristics across the region.

Mid-Continent Intensive StudyMid-Continent Intensive Study

• Develop optimized sampling schemes for field and atmospheric measurements to efficiently monitor regional carbon stocks and fluxes.

• Use top-down approaches to provide a region-level estimate of net carbon fluxes during short periods (weeks) with an accuracy of 10% by increasing spatial and temporal coverage of atmospheric measurements and by enabling improvements in the parameterization of transport/mixing processes in the lower atmosphere.

• Use a variety of bottom-up techniques to provide daily to annual estimates of carbon stocks and fluxes over a region by improving process model structure and parameterization. A hierarchy of field and remote sensing observations should be used for model testing, development of data assimilation techniques, and model parameterization.

• Compare the top-down and bottom-up approaches and iteratively improve the independent approaches on daily to annual time scales.

• Produce carbon stock and flux maps at various levels of spatial and temporal detail, and compare the results of the top-down and bottom-up approaches to diagnose methods.

ClimateProducts(eg Silo)

Obs

Forward model

Model-Dataassimilation

Data Assimilation Approaches – Savanna Systems

Data

MODIS

MODISNBARLSTAlbedo EVI/NDVI(1km, 500m, 250m)

MODIS cluster12 Terabyte16 processor

CSIRO BRS CRCGA

Ground Obs

Ground & atm obs

AVHRR

22 y

ear A

rchiv

e

LUE

, FC, P

FT, structure

HyperspectralMISR

Dynamics

Pro

du

ctio

n (

t C h

a-1

d-1

)

-0.03

-0.02

-0.01

0.00

0.01

0.02

0.03

time (day since start of period)

0 500 1000 1500

Re

spira

tion

(t C

ha

-1 d

-1)

-0.02

-0.01

0.00

0.01

Stocks

ERS-2 ATSR Fire 1995 - 2002

Disturbance

Grazing

AMSRAdvanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer

SRTMShuttle Radar Topographic Mission

Terrain/moisture

Landsat mosaic

Parameters

Compare

LAI, fPAR, GPP, NPP

TOPSTOPS

Observations to Decision SupportObservations to Decision Support