Big Sandy Rural Electric Cooperative

Corporation2006 Load Forecast

Prepared by:East Kentucky Power Cooperative, Inc.

Forecasting and Market Analysis Department

July 2006

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Table of Contents

• Introduction and Executive Summary 5• Narrative 16• Key Assumptions 20• Methodology and Results 28

– Residential Forecast 33– Small Commercial 38– Large Commercial 40– Peak Day Weather Scenarios 43

• RUS Form 341 46

Page Number

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IntroductionExecutive Summary

Big Sandy Rural Electric Cooperative Corporation (Big Sandy RECC), located in Paintsville, Kentucky, is an electric distribution cooperative that serves members in eight counties. This load forecast report contains Big Sandy RECC’s long-range forecast of energy and peak demand.

 Big Sandy RECC and its power supplier, East Kentucky Power Cooperative (EKPC), worked jointly to prepare the load forecast. Factors considered in preparing the forecast include the national and local economy, population and housing trends, service area industrial development, electric price, household income, weather, and appliance efficiency changes.

 EKPC prepared a preliminary load forecast, which was reviewed by Big Sandy RECC for reasonability. Final projections reflect a rigorous analysis of historical data combined with the experience and judgment of the manager and staff of Big Sandy RECC. Key assumptions are reported beginning on page 20.

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Executive Summary (continued)

The load forecast is prepared biannually as part of the overall planning cycle at EKPC and Big Sandy RECC. Cooperation helps to ensure that the forecast meets both parties’ needs. Big Sandy RECC uses the forecast in developing two-year work plans, long-range work plans, and financial forecasts. EKPC uses the forecast in areas of marketing analysis, transmission planning, generation planning, demand-side planning, and financial forecasting.

 

The complete load forecast for Big Sandy RECC is reported in Table 1-1. Residential and commercial sales, total purchases, winter and summer peak demands, and load factor are presented for the years 1990 through 2025.

8

Year

ResidentialSales

(MWh)

SeasonalSales

(MWh)

SmallComm.Sales

(MWh)

Public Buildings (MWh)

LargeComm.Sales

(MWh)

OtherSales

(MWh)

TotalSales

(MWh)

OfficeUse

(MWh)%

Loss

PurchasedPower(MWh)

1990 110,505 0 45,849 0 19,085 0 175,439 23 6.2 187,1331991 119,353 0 46,463 0 19,057 0 184,873 25 6.4 197,4861992 121,001 0 52,322 0 16,158 0 189,481 26 6.5 202,6801993 131,824 0 52,899 0 15,380 0 200,104 21 6.6 214,3561994 133,262 0 53,317 0 14,666 0 201,245 23 6.9 216,1651995 144,821 0 49,036 0 28,301 0 222,158 26 6.2 236,9501996 151,478 0 51,277 0 35,989 0 238,744 33 5.3 252,0461997 150,608 0 52,342 0 28,272 0 231,221 28 5.5 244,8091998 153,024 0 51,790 0 18,281 0 223,095 25 5.5 235,9971999 158,180 0 51,838 0 22,748 0 232,766 26 6.1 247,8522000 167,638 0 59,635 0 15,197 0 242,470 26 5.6 256,8352001 167,213 0 63,165 0 15,897 0 246,275 24 5.1 259,5072002 176,607 0 66,510 0 16,560 0 259,678 22 5.7 275,5162003 176,097 0 74,063 0 6,799 0 256,959 20 5.4 271,6202004 177,803 0 70,847 0 5,873 0 254,523 19 6.2 271,4822005 186,575 0 67,167 0 4,873 0 258,616 22 6.5 276,6672006 185,021 0 70,060 0 5,429 0 260,510 22 6.0 277,1622007 187,556 0 71,930 0 5,430 0 264,917 22 6.0 281,8502008 191,527 0 73,572 0 5,430 0 270,530 22 6.0 287,8212009 195,147 0 75,195 0 5,430 0 275,773 22 6.0 293,3992010 198,297 0 76,786 0 5,430 0 280,513 22 6.0 298,4412011 201,806 0 78,387 0 5,430 0 285,624 22 6.0 303,8792012 205,572 0 79,989 0 5,430 0 290,991 22 6.0 309,5892013 209,165 0 81,594 0 5,430 0 296,190 22 6.0 315,1192014 213,039 0 83,205 0 5,430 0 301,675 22 6.0 320,9542015 216,826 0 84,810 0 5,430 0 307,067 22 6.0 326,6912016 220,341 0 86,401 0 5,430 0 312,173 22 6.0 332,1222017 223,525 0 87,998 0 5,430 0 316,953 22 6.0 337,2072018 227,692 0 89,627 0 5,430 0 322,750 22 6.0 343,3742019 231,720 0 91,246 0 13,694 0 336,661 22 6.0 358,1732020 236,165 0 92,866 0 13,694 0 342,726 22 6.0 364,6262021 240,935 0 94,513 0 13,694 0 349,142 22 6.0 371,4512022 245,500 0 96,146 0 13,694 0 355,341 22 6.0 378,0452023 250,049 0 97,770 0 13,694 0 361,514 22 6.0 384,6122024 254,916 0 99,393 0 13,694 0 368,004 22 6.0 391,5172025 259,028 0 101,001 0 13,694 0 373,723 22 6.0 397,601

2006 Load ForecastBig Sandy RECC

MWh Summary

Table 1-1

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Winter Summer

Season

NoncoincidentPeak Demand

(MW) Year

NoncoincidentPeak Demand

(MW) Year

PurchasedPower(MWh)

Load Factor(%)

1989 - 90 50.0 1990 40.4 1990 187,133 42.7%1990 - 91 44.5 1991 41.4 1991 197,486 50.7%1991 - 92 46.1 1992 41.8 1992 202,680 50.2%1992 - 93 48.0 1993 45.2 1993 214,356 50.9%1993 - 94 62.6 1994 44.9 1994 216,165 39.4%1994 - 95 57.1 1995 49.7 1995 236,950 47.4%1995 - 96 69.0 1996 47.6 1996 252,046 41.7%1996 - 97 64.5 1997 50.8 1997 244,809 43.3%1997 - 98 55.4 1998 47.8 1998 235,997 48.6%1998 - 99 63.1 1999 53.7 1999 247,852 44.8%1999 - 00 68.7 2000 49.9 2000 256,835 42.7%2000 - 01 68.5 2001 51.8 2001 259,507 43.2%2001 - 02 69.1 2002 54.9 2002 275,516 45.5%2002 - 03 72.0 2003 51.3 2003 271,620 43.1%2003 - 04 74.8 2004 48.9 2004 271,482 41.4%2004 - 05 77.4 2005 53.1 2005 276,667 40.8%2005 - 06 72.9 2006 54.4 2006 277,162 43.4%2006 - 07 77.9 2007 54.7 2007 281,850 41.3%2007 - 08 79.3 2008 55.5 2008 287,821 41.4%2008 - 09 81.2 2009 56.6 2009 293,399 41.3%2009 - 10 82.6 2010 57.4 2010 298,441 41.2%2010 - 11 84.2 2011 58.3 2011 303,879 41.2%2011 - 12 85.6 2012 59.0 2012 309,589 41.3%2012 - 13 87.4 2013 60.1 2013 315,119 41.1%2013 - 14 89.1 2014 61.1 2014 320,954 41.1%2014 - 15 90.8 2015 62.0 2015 326,691 41.1%2015- 16 92.1 2016 62.7 2016 332,122 41.2%2016 - 17 93.8 2017 63.8 2017 337,207 41.0%2017 - 18 95.6 2018 64.8 2018 343,374 41.0%2018 - 19 97.4 2019 65.8 2019 358,173 42.0%2019-2020 98.9 2020 66.7 2020 364,626 42.1%2020-2021 103.0 2021 69.8 2021 371,451 41.2%2021-2022 104.9 2022 70.9 2022 378,045 41.2%2022-2023 106.7 2023 72.0 2023 384,612 41.1%2023-2024 108.4 2024 72.9 2024 391,517 41.2%2024-2025 110.4 2025 74.2 2025 397,601 41.1%

Big Sandy RECC2006 Load Forecast

Peaks Summary

Table 1-1 (continued)

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Executive Summary (continued)

Overall Results

• Total sales are projected to grow by 1.9 percent a year for the period 2005-2025, which is the same as the growth projected in the 2004 load forecast for the period 2004-2024. Results shown in Table 1-2 and Figure 1-1.

• Winter and summer peak demands for the same period indicate annual growth of 2.1 and 1.6 percent, respectively. Annual peaks shown in Figure 1-2.

• Load factor remains steady at approximately 41% for the forecast period. See Figure 1-3.

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Executive SummaryOverall Results (continued)

TimePeriod Residential

Small Commercial

Large Commercial

Total Sales

1995-2000 3.0% 4.0% -11.7% 1.8%2000-2005 2.2% 2.4% -20.3% 1.3%2005-2010 1.2% 2.7% 2.2% 1.6%2010-2015 1.8% 2.0% 0.0% 1.8%2015-2020 1.7% 1.8% 20.3% 2.2%2020-2025 1.9% 1.7% 0.0% 1.7%

1995-2005 2.6% 3.2% -16.1% 1.5%2005-2015 1.5% 2.4% 1.1% 1.7%2015-2025 1.8% 1.8% 9.7% 2.0%

5 Year Growth Rates

Table 1-2Big Sandy RECC

2006 Load ForecastSummary of Sales Growth Rates

10 Year Growth Rates

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Figure 1-1 Average Annual Growth in Sales 2005-2025

1.7%2.1%

5.3%

1.9%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

Residential Sales Small CommercialSales

Large CommercialSales

Total Sales

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Figure 1-2Peak Demand Forecast Winter and Summer

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Su

m O

f S

ub

sta

tio

ns

Pe

ak

De

ma

nd

(M

W)

Winter History Winter Forecast Summer History Summer Forecast

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Figure 1-3Annual System Load Factor

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

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Narrative Counties Served

Big Sandy RECC provides service to members in 8 counties.

Figure 1-4

0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000

Other Counties (6)

Johnson County

Floyd County

Number of Members

Includes: Breathitt, Knott, Lawrence, Magoffin, Martin, Morgan

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Narrative (continued)

As of 2006, the Floyd County labor force was engaged in wholesale and retail sales (30 percent), services (30 percent), and mining (20 percent). Average weekly wages earned in wholesale and retail sales were $350, services $500, and mining $1,000.

 Johnson County’s work force was primarily engaged in wholesale and retail sales (45 percent) and government (25 percent), earning $350 per week average in wholesale and retail sales, and $600 for government employees.

 Population trends of the area indicate only slight increases in the next 20 years. The bulk of the population resides in the rural areas and Big Sandy RECC should receive its share of future services. This share will probably continue in the next 5-10 years, with major roadways being developed and an increase in retired people relocating back into Big Sandy RECC’s service territory.

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Narrative (continued) Big Sandy RECC MembersDemographic Information

• There is an average of 2.33 people per household.

• 56% of all homes are headed by someone age 55 or greater.

• 8% of homes have farm operations, with beef cattle most prevalent.

• 19% of all homes served are less than 10 years old.

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Key AssumptionsPower Cost and Rates

• EKPC’s wholesale power cost forecast used in this load forecast comes from the following report: “Twenty-Year Financial Forecast, Equity Development Plan, 2006-2025”, dated January 2006.

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Key Assumptions (continued)Economic

(%) Change

(%) Change

(%) Change

(%) Change

(%) Change

(%) Change

(%) Change

1990 540,824 -0.5% 190,058 2.5% 144,054 3.4% 9.0% -3.5% $25,743 -1.6% $8,910 1.1% $16,475 1.7%

1991 544,407 0.7% 192,903 1.5% 144,936 0.6% 12.0% 33.8% $25,411 -1.3% $9,096 2.1% $16,707 1.4%

1992 547,802 0.6% 193,612 0.4% 145,141 0.1% 11.3% -5.4% $25,828 1.6% $9,402 3.4% $17,163 2.7%

1993 551,087 0.6% 195,843 1.2% 148,381 2.2% 10.0% -12.1% $25,735 -0.4% $9,416 0.2% $17,087 -0.4%

1994 553,065 0.4% 196,987 0.6% 150,867 1.7% 8.9% -10.8% $25,741 0.0% $9,522 1.1% $17,217 0.8%

1995 555,088 0.4% 201,264 2.2% 155,081 2.8% 9.1% 2.0% $25,511 -0.9% $9,584 0.6% $17,265 0.3%

1996 554,460 -0.1% 199,145 -1.1% 154,776 -0.2% 9.5% 4.7% $25,641 0.5% $9,674 0.9% $17,447 1.1%

1997 554,363 0.0% 202,287 1.6% 157,169 1.5% 8.2% -13.5% $26,087 1.7% $10,069 4.1% $18,163 4.1%

1998 554,044 -0.1% 201,723 -0.3% 159,377 1.4% 6.8% -17.7% $26,377 1.1% $10,284 2.1% $18,562 2.2%

1999 553,832 0.0% 204,002 1.1% 159,825 0.3% 6.9% 2.2% $26,516 0.5% $10,479 1.9% $18,921 1.9%

2000 552,926 -0.2% 202,132 -0.9% 158,377 -0.9% 6.4% -7.6% $26,390 -0.5% $10,737 2.5% $19,418 2.6%

2001 551,463 -0.3% 202,586 0.2% 159,095 0.5% 6.6% 3.9% $26,200 -0.7% $11,012 2.6% $19,968 2.8%

2002 554,005 0.5% 201,554 -0.5% 157,185 -1.2% 7.2% 8.3% $26,520 1.2% $11,137 1.1% $20,102 0.7%

2003 554,238 0.0% 203,166 0.8% 155,124 -1.3% 8.3% 15.7% $26,624 0.4% $11,109 -0.2% $20,044 -0.3%

2004 555,666 0.3% 205,488 1.1% 159,456 2.8% 8.7% 4.2% $26,654 0.1% $11,237 1.2% $20,223 0.9%

2005 557,768 0.4% 207,099 0.8% 162,464 1.9% 8.1% -6.6% $26,767 0.4% $11,330 0.8% $20,312 0.4%

2006 559,879 0.4% 208,737 0.8% 165,519 1.9% 7.7% -4.1% $26,654 -0.4% $11,434 0.9% $20,422 0.5%

2007 560,254 0.1% 209,187 0.2% 166,360 0.5% 7.8% 0.3% $26,767 0.4% $11,562 1.1% $20,638 1.1%

2008 559,983 0.0% 209,116 0.0% 166,228 -0.1% 7.6% -2.2% $26,831 0.2% $11,694 1.1% $20,882 1.2%

2009 559,782 0.0% 208,980 -0.1% 165,972 -0.2% 7.5% -1.4% $26,870 0.1% $11,829 1.2% $21,132 1.2%

2010 559,699 0.0% 208,770 -0.1% 165,581 -0.2% 7.6% 1.6% $26,899 0.1% $11,969 1.2% $21,385 1.2%

2015 560,660 0.0% 208,498 0.0% 165,074 -0.1% 7.8% 0.5% $26,970 0.1% $12,716 1.2% $22,680 1.2%

2020 562,110 0.1% 210,100 0.2% 168,064 0.4% 7.4% -1.1% $26,993 0.0% $13,601 1.4% $24,196 1.3%

2025 564,514 0.1% 212,857 0.3% 173,208 0.6% 7.4% 0.1% $26,999 0.0% $14,557 1.4% $25,786 1.3%

2030 567,274 0.1% 215,400 0.2% 177,954 0.5% 7.4% 0.0% $27,001 0.0% $15,500 1.3% $27,324 1.2%

Notes: Wages & Per Capita Income are in constant 2006 dollars; Income is in millions of constant 2005 dollars.

Growth rates are average annual changes. Data for 2004 and 2005 are simulated.

Regional SummaryEast Economic Region History and Forecast

Unemployment Rate

Regional Income

Population Labor ForceTotal

EmploymentAverage Real

Wages

Forecast

Long-Term Forecast

Actual

Real Per Capita Income

EKPC’s source for economic forecasts is DRI-WEFA.

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Key Assumptions (continued)Share of Regional Homes Served

Figure 1-5

Big Sandy RECC’s market share will increase for the forecast period.

0%

2%

4%

6%1

98

6

19

87

19

88

19

89

19

90

19

91

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

20

00

20

01

20

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03

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04

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07

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20

22

20

23

20

24

20

25

Sh

are

(%

)

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Key Assumptions (continued)Household IncomeMembers’ Greatest Sources

Figure 1-6

Education3%

Construction4%

Manufacturing1%

Retail & Service10%

Retirement55%

Other17%

Mining10%

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Key Assumptions (continued)Appliance Saturations

•

•

• Room air conditioner saturation is remaining steady at 27 percent.

•

• Appliance efficiency trends are accounted for in the model. The data is collected from Energy Information Administration, (EIA). See Figure 1-7.

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Key Assumptions (continued)Saturation Rates Non HVAC Appliances

• Microwave Oven 99%

• Electric Range 88%

• Dishwasher 41%

• Freezer 55%

• Clothes Dryer 96%

• Personal Computer 52%

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Key Assumptions (continued)Figure 1-7

Residential Appliance Efficiency Trends East South Central Region

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

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04

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05

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06

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22

20

23

20

24

20

25

Eff

icie

nc

y R

ati

ng

Heat Pump Heating (HSPF)

Heat Pump Cooling (SEER)

Central Air (SEER)

Room Air (EER)

Water Heating (EF)

All of the projections are very similar to what was used in the 2004 Load Forecast. However, the 2004 Load Forecast assumption was just below 8 by 2024 whereas this update shows the trend continuing above 8.

Source: Energy Information Administration (EIA) Efficiency Trend Update, 2005

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Key Assumptions (continued)Weather

• Weather data is from the Jackson weather station.

• Normal weather, a 30-year average of historical temperatures, is assumed for the forecast years.

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Methodology and ResultsIntroduction

This section briefly describes the methodology used to develop the load forecast and presents results in tabular and graphical form for residential and commercial classifications. Table 1-3 through Table 1-5 shows historical data for Big Sandy RECC as reported on RUS Form 736 and RUS Form 5.

 

A preliminary forecast is prepared during the first quarter depending on when Big Sandy RECC experiences its winter peak. The first step is modeling the regional economy. Population, income, and employment are among the areas analyzed. The regional model results are used in combination with the historical billing information, appliance saturation data, appliance efficiency data, and weather data to develop the long range forecast.

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Table 1-3

YearkWh Purchased

And GeneratedChange kWh Sold Change kWh Loss % Loss

Annual

Load

Factor

Average

Number Of

Consumers

Miles

Of

Line

Consumers

Per Mile

Cost Of

Purchased Power

Cents

/ kWh

1993 214,356,363 200,104,026 14,222,107 6.6% 51.6% 10,651 933 11.4 $8,769,987 4.1

1994 216,165,479 0.8% 201,244,775 0.6% 14,897,542 6.9% 40.3% 10,906 940 11.6 $8,962,308 4.1

1995 236,950,052 9.6% 222,157,848 10.4% 14,767,204 6.2% 50.4% 11,130 944 11.8 $8,288,990 3.5

1996 252,046,074 6.4% 238,743,960 7.5% 13,275,836 5.3% 44.0% 11,335 953 11.9 $8,385,103 3.3

1997 244,808,614 -2.9% 231,221,456 -3.2% 13,565,706 5.5% 46.6% 11,541 962 12.0 $8,147,456 3.3

1998 235,997,075 -3.6% 223,094,551 -3.5% 12,879,324 5.5% 50.9% 11,694 968 12.1 $7,891,696 3.3

1999 247,852,171 5.0% 232,765,613 4.3% 15,060,994 6.1% 48.1% 11,930 974 12.2 $8,769,787 3.5

2000 256,835,314 3.6% 242,469,618 4.2% 14,332,520 5.6% 43.9% 12,054 986 12.2 $9,417,427 3.7

2001 259,507,168 1.0% 246,275,275 1.6% 13,204,366 5.1% 44.2% 12,193 995 12.5 $10,107,237 4.0

2002 275,516,457 6.2% 259,677,960 5.4% 15,813,179 5.7% 47.3% 12,375 998 12.4 $10,508,056 3.8

2003 271,620,104 -1.4% 256,958,914 -1.0% 14,635,634 5.4% 45.0% 12,509 1,001 12.5 $10,801,534 4.0

2004 271,482,104 -0.1% 254,523,191 -0.9% 16,933,368 6.2% 41.5% 12,705 1,003 12.7 $11,947,454 4.4

2005 276,667,440 1.9% 258,615,550 1.6% 18,027,768 6.5% 43.6% 12,888 1,012 12.7 $14,336,761 5.2

5.9% 3.9

Big Sandy RECC Comparative Annual Operating DataPeak

Demand

(MW)

47.4

61.2

53.7

60.0

65.4

52.9

Average

58.8

74.7

72.4

66.7

67.0

66.5

68.9

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Table 1-4

Year kWh Sales%

Change

kWh

Sales

%

ChangekWh Sales

%

ChangekWh Sales

%

ChangekWh Sales

%

Change

kWh

Sales

%

Change

1993 131,824,283 0 52,899,343 15,380,400 0 0

1994 133,261,711 1.1% 0 53,316,664 0.8% 14,666,400 -4.6% 0 0

1995 144,820,691 8.7% 0 49,035,757 -8.0% 28,301,400 93.0% 0 0

1996 151,478,033 4.6% 0 51,277,327 4.6% 35,988,600 27.2% 0 0

1997 150,607,503 -0.6% 0 52,341,953 2.1% 28,272,000 -21.4% 0 0

1998 153,023,508 1.6% 0 51,789,643 -1.1% 18,281,400 -35.3% 0 0

1999 158,179,625 3.4% 0 51,838,488 0.1% 22,747,500 24.4% 0 0

2000 167,638,392 6.0% 0 59,634,526 15.0% 15,196,700 -33.2% 0 0

2001 167,213,408 -0.3% 0 63,164,867 5.9% 15,897,000 4.6% 0 0

2002 176,607,431 5.6% 0 66,510,282 5.3% 16,560,247 4.2% 0 0

2003 176,096,994 -0.3% 0 74,063,320 11.4% 6,798,600 -58.9% 0 0

2004 177,803,401 1.0% 0 70,847,290 -4.3% 5,872,500 -13.6% 0 0

2005 186,574,874 4.9% 0 67,167,476 -5.2% 4,873,200 -17.0% 0 0

2 Year 5,238,940 2.9% -3,447,922 -4.8% -962,700 -15.3%

5 Year 3,787,296 2.2% 1,506,590 2.4% -2,064,700 -20.3%

10 Year 4,175,418 2.6% 1,813,172 3.2% -2,342,820 -16.1%

Average Annual Change

Big Sandy RECC Comparative Annual Operating Data

ResidentialResidential

Seasonal

Commercial /

I ndustrial

(1 MW Or Less)

Commercial /

I ndustrial

( Over 1 MW)

Public Street /

Highway Lighting

Public

Authorities

31

Table 1-5

Year Consumerskwh /

Mo.Consumers

kwh /

Mo.Consumers

kwh /

Mo.Consumers kwh / Mo. Consumers

kwh /

Mo.Consumers kwh / Mo.

1993 9,833 1,117 0 815 5,409 3 427,233 0 0

1994 10,078 1,102 0 826 5,379 2 611,100 0 0

1995 10,305 1,171 0 821 4,977 4 589,613 0 0

1996 10,495 1,203 0 836 5,111 4 749,763 0 0

1997 10,683 1,175 0 854 5,108 4 589,000 0 0

1998 10,838 1,177 0 853 5,060 3 507,817 0 0

1999 11,038 1,194 0 888 4,865 4 473,906 0 0

2000 11,132 1,255 0 919 5,408 3 422,131 0 0

2001 11,239 1,240 0 952 5,529 2 662,375 0 0

2002 11,377 1,294 0 996 5,565 2 690,010 0 0

2003 11,488 1,277 0 1,020 6,051 1 566,550 0 0

2004 11,665 1,270 0 1,039 5,682 1 489,375 0 0

2005 11,804 1,317 0 1,083 5,168 1 406,100 0 0

10 Year Avg. 150 15 26 19 0 -18,351

5 Year Avg. 134 12 33 -48 0 -3,206

2 Year Avg. 158 20 32 -441 0 -80,225

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Consumers 245 227 190 188 155 200 94 107 138 111 177 139

kWh/ month -15 69 32 -28 2 18 61 -15 54 -16 -7 47

Annual Changes I n Big Sandy's Residential Class

Big Sandy RECC Comparative Annual Operating Data

ResidentialResidential

Seasonal

Commercial /

I ndustrial

(1 MW Or Less)

Commercial /

I ndustrial

( Over 1 MW)

Public Street /

Highway LightingPublic Authorities

32

Methodology and Results (continued)

The preliminary forecast was presented to Big Sandy RECC staff, and reviewed by the Rural Utilities Services (RUS) Field Representative. Changes were made to the forecast as needed based on new information, such as new large loads or subdivisions. In some instances, other assumptions were changed based on insights from Big Sandy RECC staff. Input from EKPC and Big Sandy RECC results in the best possible forecast.

33

Methodology and Results (continued)Residential Forecast

Residential customers are analyzed by means of regression analysis with resulting coefficients used to prepare customer projections. Regressions for residential customers are typically a function of regional economic and demographic variables. Two variables that are very significant are the numbers of households by county in each member system's economic region and the percent of total households served by the member system. Table 1-6 and Figure 1-8 report Big Sandy RECC’s customer forecast.

The residential energy sales were projected using a statistically adjusted end-use (SAE) approach. This method of modeling incorporates end-use forecasts and can be used to allocate the monthly and annual forecasts into end-use components. This method, like end-use modeling, requires detailed information about appliance saturation, appliance use, appliance efficiencies, household characteristics, weather characteristics, and demographic and economic information. The SAE approach segments the average household use into heating, cooling, and water heating end-use components. See Figure 1-9. This model accounts for appliance efficiency improvements. Table 1-6 reports Big Sandy RECC’s energy forecast.

34

Table 1-6

Customers Use Per Customer Class Sales

AnnualAverage

AnnualChange

%Change

MonthlyAverage(kWh)

AnnualChange(kWh)

%Change

Total(MWh)

AnnualChange(MWh)

%Change

1990 9,280 992 110,5051991 9,431 151 1.6 1,055 62 6.3 119,353 8,848 8.01992 9,594 163 1.7 1,051 -4 -0.3 121,001 1,648 1.41993 9,833 239 2.5 1,117 66 6.3 131,824 10,823 8.91994 10,078 245 2.5 1,102 -15 -1.4 133,262 1,437 1.11995 10,305 227 2.3 1,171 69 6.3 144,821 11,559 8.71996 10,495 190 1.8 1,203 32 2.7 151,478 6,657 4.61997 10,683 188 1.8 1,175 -28 -2.3 150,608 -871 -0.61998 10,838 155 1.5 1,177 2 0.2 153,024 2,416 1.61999 11,038 200 1.8 1,194 18 1.5 158,180 5,156 3.42000 11,132 94 0.9 1,255 61 5.1 167,638 9,459 6.02001 11,239 107 1.0 1,240 -15 -1.2 167,213 -425 -0.32002 11,377 138 1.2 1,294 54 4.3 176,607 9,394 5.62003 11,488 111 1.0 1,277 -16 -1.3 176,097 -510 -0.32004 11,665 177 1.5 1,270 -7 -0.6 177,803 1,706 1.02005 11,804 139 1.2 1,317 47 3.7 186,575 8,771 4.92006 11,970 166 1.4 1,288 -29 -2.2 185,021 -1,554 -0.82007 12,124 154 1.3 1,289 1 0.1 187,556 2,535 1.42008 12,272 148 1.2 1,301 11 0.9 191,527 3,972 2.12009 12,417 145 1.2 1,310 9 0.7 195,147 3,620 1.92010 12,559 142 1.1 1,316 6 0.5 198,297 3,149 1.62011 12,700 141 1.1 1,324 8 0.6 201,806 3,510 1.82012 12,841 141 1.1 1,334 10 0.7 205,572 3,766 1.92013 12,981 140 1.1 1,343 9 0.7 209,165 3,593 1.72014 13,122 141 1.1 1,353 10 0.8 213,039 3,874 1.92015 13,261 139 1.1 1,363 10 0.7 216,826 3,787 1.82016 13,402 141 1.1 1,370 8 0.6 220,341 3,515 1.62017 13,542 140 1.0 1,376 5 0.4 223,525 3,183 1.42018 13,681 139 1.0 1,387 11 0.8 227,692 4,168 1.92019 13,821 140 1.0 1,397 10 0.7 231,720 4,028 1.82020 13,962 141 1.0 1,410 12 0.9 236,165 4,445 1.92021 14,102 140 1.0 1,424 14 1.0 240,935 4,770 2.02022 14,241 139 1.0 1,437 13 0.9 245,500 4,565 1.92023 14,382 141 1.0 1,449 12 0.9 250,049 4,548 1.92024 14,522 140 1.0 1,463 14 1.0 254,916 4,868 1.92025 14,662 140 1.0 1,472 9 0.6 259,028 4,111 1.6

Big Sandy RECC2006 Load Forecast

Residential Summary

35

Figure 1-8Annual Change in Residential Customers

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Figure 1-9

Big Sandy RECCResidential MWh Usage, History and Forecast

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Other Usage Heating, Cooling and Water Heating Usage

38

Methodology and Results (continued)Small Commercial Forecast

Small commercial sales are projected using two equations, a customer equation and a small commercial sales equation. Both are determined through regression analysis and utilize inputs relating to the economy, electric price, and the residential customer forecast. Small commercial projections are reported in Table 1-7.

39

Table 1-7

Customers Use Per Customer Class Sales

AnnualAverage

AnnualChange

%Change

AnnualAverage(MWh)

AnnualChange(MWh)

%Change

Total(MWh)

AnnualChange(MWh)

%Change

1990 822 56 45,8491991 814 -8 -1.0 57 1 2.3 46,463 614 1.31992 810 -4 -0.5 65 8 13.2 52,322 5,860 12.61993 815 5 0.6 65 0 0.5 52,899 577 1.11994 826 11 1.3 65 0 -0.6 53,317 417 0.81995 821 -5 -0.6 60 -5 -7.5 49,036 -4,281 -8.01996 836 15 1.8 61 2 2.7 51,277 2,242 4.61997 854 18 2.2 61 0 -0.1 52,342 1,065 2.11998 853 -1 -0.1 61 -1 -0.9 51,790 -552 -1.11999 888 35 4.1 58 -2 -3.9 51,838 49 0.12000 919 31 3.5 65 7 11.2 59,635 7,796 15.02001 952 33 3.6 66 1 2.2 63,165 3,530 5.92002 996 44 4.6 67 0 0.6 66,510 3,345 5.32003 1,019 23 2.3 73 6 8.8 74,063 7,553 11.42004 1,039 20 2.0 68 -4 -6.2 70,847 -3,216 -4.32005 1,084 45 4.3 62 -6 -9.1 67,167 -3,680 -5.22006 1,110 26 2.4 63 1 1.9 70,060 2,893 4.32007 1,144 34 3.1 63 0 -0.4 71,930 1,870 2.72008 1,176 32 2.8 63 0 -0.5 73,572 1,642 2.32009 1,207 31 2.6 62 0 -0.4 75,195 1,623 2.22010 1,238 31 2.6 62 0 -0.4 76,786 1,591 2.12011 1,268 30 2.4 62 0 -0.3 78,387 1,602 2.12012 1,299 31 2.4 62 0 -0.4 79,989 1,602 2.02013 1,329 30 2.3 61 0 -0.3 81,594 1,605 2.02014 1,359 30 2.3 61 0 -0.3 83,205 1,611 2.02015 1,389 30 2.2 61 0 -0.3 84,810 1,605 1.92016 1,420 31 2.2 61 0 -0.3 86,401 1,591 1.92017 1,450 30 2.1 61 0 -0.3 87,998 1,597 1.82018 1,480 30 2.1 61 0 -0.2 89,627 1,629 1.92019 1,510 30 2.0 60 0 -0.2 91,246 1,619 1.82020 1,540 30 2.0 60 0 -0.2 92,866 1,620 1.82021 1,571 31 2.0 60 0 -0.2 94,513 1,646 1.82022 1,601 30 1.9 60 0 -0.2 96,146 1,633 1.72023 1,631 30 1.9 60 0 -0.2 97,770 1,624 1.72024 1,661 30 1.8 60 0 -0.2 99,393 1,622 1.72025 1,691 30 1.8 60 0 -0.2 101,001 1,608 1.6

Big Sandy RECC2006 Load Forecast

Small Commercial Summary

40

Methodology and Results (continued)Large Commercial Forecast

Large commercial customers are those with loads 1 MW or greater. Big Sandy RECC currently has 1 customers in this class and is projected to increase to 2 customers by 2025. Large commercial results are reported in Table 1-8.

41

Customers Use Per Customer Class Sales

AnnualAverage

AnnualChange

%Change

Annual Average(MWh)

AnnualChange(MWh)

%Change

Total(MWh)

AnnualChange(MWh)

%Change

1990 4 4,771 19,0851991 3 -1 -25.0 6,352 1,581 33.1 19,057 -28 -0.11992 3 0 0.0 5,386 -966 -15.2 16,158 -2,899 -15.21993 3 0 0.0 5,127 -259 -4.8 15,380 -777 -4.81994 2 -1 -33.3 7,333 2,206 43.0 14,666 -714 -4.61995 4 2 100.0 7,075 -258 -3.5 28,301 13,635 93.01996 4 0 0.0 8,997 1,922 27.2 35,989 7,687 27.21997 4 0 0.0 7,068 -1,929 -21.4 28,272 -7,717 -21.41998 3 -1 -25.0 6,094 -974 -13.8 18,281 -9,991 -35.31999 4 1 33.3 5,687 -407 -6.7 22,748 4,466 24.42000 3 -1 -25.0 5,066 -621 -10.9 15,197 -7,551 -33.22001 2 -1 -33.3 7,949 2,883 56.9 15,897 700 4.62002 2 0 0.0 8,280 332 4.2 16,560 663 4.22003 1 -1 -50.0 6,799 -1,482 -17.9 6,799 -9,762 -58.92004 1 0 0.0 5,873 -926 -13.6 5,873 -926 -13.62005 1 0 0.0 4,873 -999 -17.0 4,873 -999 -17.02006 1 0 0.0 5,429 556 11.4 5,429 556 11.42007 1 0 0.0 5,430 1 0.0 5,430 1 0.02008 1 0 0.0 5,430 0 0.0 5,430 0 0.02009 1 0 0.0 5,430 0 0.0 5,430 0 0.02010 1 0 0.0 5,430 0 0.0 5,430 0 0.02011 1 0 0.0 5,430 0 0.0 5,430 0 0.02012 1 0 0.0 5,430 0 0.0 5,430 0 0.02013 1 0 0.0 5,430 0 0.0 5,430 0 0.02014 1 0 0.0 5,430 0 0.0 5,430 0 0.02015 1 0 0.0 5,430 0 0.0 5,430 0 0.02016 1 0 0.0 5,430 0 0.0 5,430 0 0.02017 1 0 0.0 5,430 0 0.0 5,430 0 0.02018 1 0 0.0 5,430 0 0.0 5,430 0 0.02019 2 1 100.0 6,847 1,417 26.1 13,694 8,264 152.22020 2 0 0.0 6,847 0 0.0 13,694 0 0.02021 2 0 0.0 6,847 0 0.0 13,694 0 0.02022 2 0 0.0 6,847 0 0.0 13,694 0 0.02023 2 0 0.0 6,847 0 0.0 13,694 0 0.02024 2 0 0.0 6,847 0 0.0 13,694 0 0.02025 2 0 0.0 6,847 0 0.0 13,694 0 0.0

Big Sandy RECC2006 Load Forecast

Large Commercial Summary

Table 1-7

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43

Methodology and Results (continued)Peak Day Weather Scenarios

Extreme temperatures can dramatically influence Big Sandy RECC’s peak demands. Table 1-9 and Figure 1-10 reports the impact of extreme weather on system demands.

44

Table 1-9

Winter Peak Day Minimum Temperatures Summer Peak Day Maximum Temperatures

Mild Normal Extreme Normal Extreme

Degrees 10 -3 -12 -17 -25 Degrees 94 98 100 104

Probability 99% 50% 20% 10% 3% Probability 50% 20% 10% 3%

Occurs Once Every 2 Years 5 Years 10 Years 30 Years 2 Years 5 Years 10 Years 30 Years

Noncoincident Winter Peak Demand - MW Noncoincident Summer Peak Demand - MW

Season Mild Normal Extreme Year Normal Extreme

2006 54 61 65 72

2006 - 07 69 78 84 87 93 2007 55 62 65 72

2007 - 08 70 79 86 89 95 2008 56 63 66 73

2008 - 09 72 81 88 91 97 2009 57 64 67 75

2009 - 10 73 83 89 93 99 2010 57 65 68 76

2010 - 11 75 84 91 95 101 2011 58 66 69 77

2011 - 12 76 86 92 96 102 2012 59 66 70 78

2012 - 13 77 87 94 98 105 2013 60 68 71 79

2013 - 14 79 89 96 100 107 2014 61 69 73 80

2014 - 15 80 91 98 102 109 2015 62 70 74 81

2015- 16 81 92 100 104 110 2016 63 70 74 82

2016 - 17 83 94 101 106 112 2017 64 72 76 83

2017 - 18 84 96 103 108 115 2018 65 73 77 85

2018 - 19 86 97 105 110 117 2019 66 74 78 86

2019-2020 87 99 107 111 119 2020 67 75 79 87

2020-2021 91 103 111 116 123 2021 70 78 82 90

2021-2022 93 105 113 118 125 2022 71 79 83 92

2022-2023 94 107 115 120 128 2023 72 80 85 93

2023-2024 96 108 117 122 130 2024 73 81 86 94

2024-2025 98 110 119 124 132 2025 74 83 87 96

Big Sandy RECCPeak Day Weather Scenarios

45

Figure 1-10Big Sandy RECC - Normal Peaks And T&D Planning Peaks

0

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1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 2023

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46

RUS Form 341

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Form 341Form 341