beyond the crisis : ovethrowing the discredited development model arnaud zacharie (cncd – belgium)
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Beyond the crisis : ovethrowing the discredited development
model
Arnaud Zacharie (CNCD – Belgium)
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Majors problems to resolve• International capital flows liberalisation, financial
instability and « bubble economy »• Global imbalances, exchange rates instability and
reserve accumulation by developing countries• Global competition, social dumping and loss of
the part of wages in GDP• Unsustainable growth model, CO2 emissions and
climate change• Global economy, national policies and lack of
global governance
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South-North financing
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Alternatives
• Capital control mechanisms (ex. : « encaje »)• Addressing capital flight (tax havens)• Domestic savings mobilisation• Progressive taxation system• Debt cancellation
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Global imbalances
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
Economies en voie dedéveloppement
Economies en transition
Economies développées
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Reserve accumulation inReserve accumulation in t the Southhe South
Source: IMF, International Financial Statistics, and IMF staff calculations
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Reserve accumulation in the world
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%19
93
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Economies développées
Economies en transition
Economies en voie dedéveloppement
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Alternatives
• New global reserve system and exchange rates stabilisation (ex. : new type of SDR)
• Regional reserve systems (ex. : Chiang Mai initiative)
• Regional currency systems
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Social dumping and wage share in the South
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Social dumping and wage share in the North
Evolution de la part des salaires dans la richesse créée par l'ensemble de l'économie
50,0%
52,0%
54,0%
56,0%
58,0%
60,0%
62,0%
64,0%
66,0%
68,0%
70,0%
France Union européenne G7
1970
1980
1995
2005
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Alternatives
• Decent work agenda• Social standards (incl. European social
harmonisation) • Capping return on equity
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CO2 emissions
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Alternatives
• Ecological debt financing• Financing a new model of sustainable
development by new clean development mechanisms
• Environmental standards• A new sustainable GDP
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IMF democratic deficit
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
EU 27 Etats-Unis
Japon Afrique Chine Russie Inde Brésil
Population Revenu en PPP Votes FMI
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Lack of coherence
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Alternatives
• A new global system of governance (ex. : a New Global Economic Coordination Council)
• Democratisation of the new global system of governance
• Creation of a World Environmental Organisation
• Hierarchy of international law standards