beyond oil: imagining the future
TRANSCRIPT
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Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
Beyond Oil Imagining the Future
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Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
Question:Climate Change:
A: It’s a very serious looming crisis
B: Confused; not sure what to make of it
C: It’s overblown. Earth’s climate has always been variable
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Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
Question:Transportation without Oil:
A: Yes, I believe it’s possible
B: I don’t know if it’s possible
C: No, it’s not possible.
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Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
Before Oil… Remembering the Past
Four million years of walking
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Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
Walking = 4,000,000 yearsVancouver to Kelowna/Kamloops = 400 km
10,000 years = 1 kilometreThe last 100 years = 10 metres
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Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
Petrolia, Ontario1858
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Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2011www.earthfuture.com
As we burn the fossil fuels…
Guy Dauncey 2007www.earthfuture.com
CO2 CO2CO2
CO2
CO2 CO2
100 million tonnes a day = 4 million tonnes an hour = 67,000 tonnes a minute = 1,000 tonnes a second
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Guy Dauncey 2011www.earthfuture.com
+ 2˚C rise
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The last time the world was 3°C warmer
the sea level was 25 metres higher
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Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
2 metres
10 metres
18 metres
25 metres
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Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
1 metre sea-level rise http://flood.firetree.net
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Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
3 metres sea-level rise http://flood.firetree.net
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Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
20 metres sea-level rise http://flood.firetree.net
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Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
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Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
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Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
German Institute for Economic Research and Watkiss et al. 2005
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Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2011www.earthfuture.com
Tar Sands: 1.2 million barrels a dayThe world is consuming 89 million barrels a day
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Total carbon in the world’s fossil fuel reserves
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Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2011www.earthfuture.com
The Teeny-Weeny, Ever-So-Brief Age of Oil
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Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2011www.earthfuture.com
10,000 years past
10,000 years future
The Teeny-Witzy, Ever-So-Brief Age of Oil
Neolithic Era: 8,000 yearsAncient Egypt: 3,000 yearsRoman Empire: 1,000 yearsIslamic Golden Age: 600 yearsEra of Oil: 100 years
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Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2011www.earthfuture.com
10,000 years past
10,000 years future
The Teeny-Witzy, Ever-So-Brief Age of Oil
Neolithic Era: 8,000 yearsAncient Egypt: 3,000 yearsRoman Empire: 1,000 yearsIslamic Golden Age: 600 yearsAge of Oil: 100 years
What happens here?
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Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2011www.earthfuture.com
A billion yearsfuture
Neolithic Era: 8,000 yearsAncient Egypt: 3,000 yearsRoman Empire: 1,000 yearsIslamic Golden Age: 600 yearsAge of Oil: 100 years
The Sun does not begin to turn into a Red Giantfor a billion years.
That’s 100,000 periods of 10,000 years
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Beyond Oil Awakening the Future
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BCSEA 2012www.bcsea.org
BCSEA vision is a sustainable future in which
all of BC’s energy
is green and renewable.
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How Are We Using the Oil?Cars & light trucks 40%Heavy trucks 13%Flying 8%Shipping 2.5%Asphalt 3%Rail freight 1%Recreational 1%Military 1.5%
TOTAL TRANSPORT 71%
Non-transport uses 29%
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1 5% shift to walking
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Neighbourhood Walkability Auditwww.walklive.org
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Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Toronto Walking School Bus
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IS IT POSSIBLE?
YESNO
MAYBE
A 5% shift to walking
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The Journey Beyond Oil
Cars & light trucks
5% shift to walking = 95% of oil demand
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2 15% shift to cycling
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In Holland, 40% of all traffic movement is by bicycle
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Safe bike lanes and routes Good bike parking Cycling education in schools
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Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
Vancouver, Howe Street
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City Bike Sharing
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Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
Electric Bicycles
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Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
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Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
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Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
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Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
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Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
www.emcyclellc.com
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Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
A fun cycling culture
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Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
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Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
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Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
School at Assen, Holland
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Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
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Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
IS IT POSSIBLE?
YESNO
MAYBE
15% shift to cycling
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Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
The Journey Beyond Oil
Cars & light trucks
5% shift to walking = 95% of oil demand15% shift to cycling = 80% …
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Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
3 v15% shift to transit and LRT
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Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
Hasselt, BelgiumFree transit, included in city taxes1996-2006 13-fold increase in ridership
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Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
Real-time electronic displays
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Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
Bus shelter in Taiwan
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Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
Stockholm – 200 buses run on biogas from sewage treatment
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Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
Umea, SwedenFast-Charging Electric Bus, 18 hours/day
1 – 2 euros for 10-20 kWh electricity to go 10 km
www.opbrid.com
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Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
OLEVOn-Line Electric Vehicle, South Korea
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Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
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Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Japan’s Future Electric Bus
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Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
IS IT POSSIBLE?
YESNO
MAYBE
15% shift to Transit & LRT
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Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
LRT in Portland, Oregon
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Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
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Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
Electric train+ green electricity = no climate impact
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Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
The Journey Beyond Oil
Cars & light trucks
5% shift to walking = 95% of oil demand15% shift to cycling = 80% …15% shift to transit/LRT = 65% …
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Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
4 5% shift to Telework
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Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
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Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
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Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Cisco Systems
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Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
IS IT POSSIBLE?
YESNO
MAYBE
5% shift to Telework
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Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
The Journey Beyond Oil
Cars & light trucks
5% shift to walking = 95% of oil demand15% shift to cycling = 80% …15% shift to transit/LRT = 65% …5% shift to telework = 60% …
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Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
5 v5% shift to Ride-Sharing
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Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
Kijiji
Craigslist
Shareyourride.net
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Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
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Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
Real-time Ride-sharingwww.car.ma
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Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
Guaranteed emergency ride homeCash-out parking – paid for not using employee
parking spaceRideshare Plus Rewards Book
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Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
IS IT POSSIBLE?
YESNO
MAYBE
5% shift to Ridesharing
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Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
The Journey Beyond Oil
Cars & light trucks
5% shift to walking = 95% of oil demand15% shift to cycling = 80% …15% shift to transit/LRT = 65% …5% shift to telework = 60% …5% shift to ride-sharing = 55% …
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Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
See
650 members share 23 vehicles
www.victoriacarshare.ca
6 5% shift to Car Sharing
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Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
Car-sharing forecast North America 2016:
4.4 million usersDavid Zhao, automotive research analyst with Frost & Sullivan,
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Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
Peer-to-Peer Car-Sharing
Vehicles owners earnup to $300 a month
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Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
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Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
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Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
IS IT POSSIBLE?
YESNO
MAYBE
5% shift to Car-sharing
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Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
The Journey Beyond Oil
Cars & light trucks
5% shift to walking = 95% of oil demand15% shift to cycling = 80% …15% shift to transit/LRT = 65% …5% shift to telework = 60% …5% shift to ride-sharing = 55% …5% shift to car-sharing = 50% …
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Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
7 Better Inter-ModalConnections
Single Smart Card for transit, LRT, car-share,
ride-share, ferries, rail
Good transit-ferry connections
Good bike-parking at every transit station
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Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
Transport London’s Oyster Card
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Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
Walk Bike
Food Help
Taxi
Skype
ParkRide share
Ski-lift
Maps
Ferry Fly
Car share
LRTTransit
Rail
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Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
IS IT POSSIBLE?
YESNO
MAYBE
Better Inter-ModalConnections
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Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
8 Smart Growth
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Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
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Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
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Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
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Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
Jamestown Mall Area Plan, St. Louis County, Missouri
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Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
Metro do Porto, Portugal
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Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
IS IT POSSIBLE?
YESNO
MAYBE
Smart Growth
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Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
9 50% shift to Hybrid EVs
80% of average mileage on electric drive
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Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
Chevy Volt2,500 km on one tank of gas
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Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
Volkswagen XL1 (1-litre) 2012 Diesel plug-in hybrid
795 kg 75km battery range0.9 litres/100 km (260 mpg US)
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Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
IS IT POSSIBLE?
YESNO
MAYBE
50% shift to Hybrid EVs
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Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
The Journey Beyond Oil
Cars & light trucks
5% shift to walking = 95% of oil demand15% shift to cycling = 80% …15% shift to transit/LRT = 65% …5% shift to telework = 60% …5% shift to ride-sharing = 55% …5% shift to car-sharing = 50% …50% of vehicles hybrid electric = 30% 80% of mileage electric
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Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
10 v50% shift to Electric Vehicles
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Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
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Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
Low Price: Renault Twizy EV 2 seats, 100 km range, made in Spain 80 kph top speed, 3.5 hours recharge $9,700 + $60/month battery lease
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Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
In UK: $10,600 + $65 monthly battery lease charge
Top
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Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
Mid-price: Mitsubishi MiEV 5 seats Top speed 130 kph 150 km range $25,000 after rebates
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Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
Nissan Leaf Electric - 120 km range
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Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
Smart Electric – 135 km range
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Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
Toyota RAV4 EV148 km range
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Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
Top price: Tesla EV Model-X 7 seats. Spacious luggage capacity front & rear 0-90 kph in 4.4 seconds 300-400 kilomertes range $67,000 plus incentives Delivery in 2014
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Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
Top
The KIA Pop: yet to be released
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Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
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Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
STELLA
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Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
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Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
Made by Dutch students, Eindhoven UniversityFamily size, 4-seaterRoadworthy, legal in HollandWeight: 380 kg (1120 kg for normal EV)Range: 400 km no sunshine, 600 km full sunshineSolar PV cost $4,00010 months a year it produces more energy than it usesExcess power back into the grid
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Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
Electric cars, running on green electricity = no climate impact
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Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
Honda solar electric car charging
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Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
Electric car fast charging
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Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
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Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
50% fuel reductionMercedes Biome concept car
Ultra-lights
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Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
Average car 2,000 kgToyota Prius V 1,485 kgEvonik Elise EV 950 kg
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Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
1.5 kW of solar PV = 1,500 kWh a year
Electric car: 15 kWh = 100 km
10,000 km = 1,500 kWh
PV for EV
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Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
1.5 kW solar PV $7,500
3.5% 25 year mortgage on $7.5k = $37/month
Gas @ $1.30 litre = $80/month
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Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
IS IT POSSIBLE?
YESNO
MAYBE
50% shift to Electric Vehicles
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Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
The Journey Beyond Oil
Cars & light trucks
5% shift to walking = 95% of oil demand15% shift to cycling = 80% …15% shift to transit/LRT = 65% …5% shift to telework = 60% …5% shift to ride-sharing = 55% …5% shift to car-sharing = 50% …50% vehicles hybrid EV 80% = 30% …50% of vehicles are electric = 5% …Lightweight design saves 50% = 2.5% …If all vehicles EVs = 0.0% …
= Beyond Oil
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Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
IS IT POSSIBLE?
YESNO
MAYBE
100% shift to Beyond Oilfor cars & light trucks
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Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
Integrated Governance
CyclingTransit
HighwaysRail
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Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
Integrated Cost Analysis
$CyclingTransit
HighwaysRail
$
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Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
Cost of a new traffic lane$300,000 to $500,000 per km 800 vehicles per hour
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Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
Cost of a new traffic lane$300,000 to $500,000 per km 800 vehicles per hour
Cost of a 1.5 metre bike lane$5,000 to $10,000 per km for re-striping
2,000 trips per hour = 75 to 250 times more cost-effective
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Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
Cost of a new traffic lane$300,000 to $500,000 per km 800 vehicles per hour
Cost of a 1.5 metre bike lane$5,000 to $10,000 per km for re-striping
2,000 trips per hour = 75 to 250 times more cost-effective
$35,000 to $150,000 per km when road widening required = 5 to 35 times more cost-effective
Ministry of Transportation of Ontario, Ontario Bikeways Planning and Design Guidelines, pg. 8-34, March 1996.
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Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
Cost of a new traffic lane$300,000 to $500,000 per km 800 vehicles per hour
Cost of a 1.5 metre bike lane$5,000 to $10,000 per km for re-striping2,000 trips per hour
= 75 to 250 times more cost-effective
$35,000 to $150,000 per km when road widening required = 5 to 35 times more cost-effective
Ministry of Transportation of Ontario, Ontario Bikeways Planning and Design Guidelines, pg. 8-34, March 1996.
Cost of a new separated bike lane $100,000 per km
= 7 to 12 times more cost-effective
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Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
Carbon Taxes Feebates Road tolls Utility Public
Service Charges
How can we pay for it all?
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Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
Electronic Road Pricing
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Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
Road-pricing on the Malahat
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Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
30,000 vehicles a day$2 one-way toll = $60,000 a day
= 250 luxury coaches= up to 10,000 passengers a day
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Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
Electric Freight
Renault Radiance Dutch concept electric truck
Average 18-wheeler 6.5 mpg Super-efficient designs 9 mpg
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Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
Cargohopper 3 tonnes max 60 km range 20 kph top speed Urban deliveries Holland
www.cargohopper.com
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Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
Freight Solutions - Trucking
Super-efficient designs save 35% Electric plug-in to eliminate idling saves 8% Slower driving saves 8% ‘Empty miles’ shipping saves 5-15% Combined innovations could save 60%
But 60% increased demand would wipe out all the gains.
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Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
Solar ElectricFreight Tube
Vancouver – San Diego 5 hours
1994 US Federal Highway Administration study
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Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
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Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
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Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
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Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
Shipping Solutions
2.5% of global oil use
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Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
Solar Sailor www.solarsailor.com
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Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
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Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
The Maltese Falcon: Advanced Square Rigger Sail Design
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Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
B9 Shipping: 100% renewably powered commercially and technically viable sailing hybrid cargo ships.
www.b9energy.com
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Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
9 MW of solar panelsRetractable sails between each cargo bay
Self-unloading cargo baysSuperconducting power link
Modular LNG hydrogen fuel cellsSleek, low wind resistance design
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Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
Slowing from 25 to 20 knots – saves 50% Slowing from 23.5 to 20 knots - saves 25% Skysails on slow boats (10 knots) - saves 20% Ecospeed coating and underwater cleaning – saves 20% Underwater propellor polishing – saves 2% Black carbon elimination through cleaner fuel
But 50% increased demand would wipe out all the gains.
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Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
Flying Solutions
8% of global oil use
Latest designs save 20%
But a 20% increased demand would wipe out all the gains.
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Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
Proposed EADS VoltAir lithium-air battery aircraftSuperconducting electric motors
Paris Airshow, 2011Up to Mach 4, Paris – Tokyo in 2.5 hours
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Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
Renewable Electricity
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Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
Renewable Fuel
Biofuel made from… Farm and forest wastes Sewage and urban organic wastes Cultivated algae using waste CO2 Cultivated seaweed
Renewable fuel made from… Carbon monoxide and industrial wastes Green hydrogen Green methanol (hydrogen and waste CO2)
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Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
Renewable Fuel
Will there be enough?
Rocky Mountain Institute:with 84% fuel-saving potentialUS demand = 3.1 million barrels a day
USDA-DOE analysis: US farmland could sustainably provide dry collectable biomass wastes = 3 million barrels a day.
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Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
Stronger Local Economies
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Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
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Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
So what’s
The Secret
to make it all happen?
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Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
Community engagement
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Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
Special Discount
$20 Signed copies
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Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
BCSEA 2012www.bcsea.org
Together, we can change the world.
To become a BCSEA Memberwww.bcsea.org/join
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Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
This whole presentation is available on
www.slideshare.net/GuyDauncey
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Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
How can we make it happen?
Questions
Discussion
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Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
D'où venons-nous? Que sommes-nous? Où allons-nous?
Where Do We Come From? What Are We? Where Are We Going??
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Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
Voyager 1 photo of Earth from 6 billion kilometers.
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Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
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Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
The Universe has taken
13 billion years
to create us
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Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
Number of stars in the Universe
1024: 1 trillion trillion
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Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
Number of atoms in your body:
1027: 1000 trillion trillion
All self-organized into one amazing whole
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Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
Every atom in your body was either made in the Big Bangor in a later Supernova explosion
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Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
Number of stars in our galaxy
100 trillion
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Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
Number of synapses in your brain
100 trillion
All self-organized into one amazing whole
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Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
100 trillion synapses 100 trillion stars
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Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
We are all conscious
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Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
Do you have free will to choose your future?
Or is everything predetermined?
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Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
You have free will We can make a difference
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Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
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Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
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Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com It’s Our World – Let’s Change ItGuy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
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Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
This is about us, our planet,and our future.
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Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
Taken together, our efforts to make a better world are like drops of dew that slowly accumulate in the soul of the world. They hasten the day when the whole Earth,With all its peoples and all its many creatures, will enjoy harmony, fulfillment and peace.
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Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey
www.earthfuture.com