„beyond nukes – what comes in germany after phasing out of nuclear energy?“
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Conference on the Future of Energy in Enlarged Europe: Perspectives for R&D Co-operation“ A contribution within the context of the ‘Weimar Triangle’ Warsaw, 7- 8th October 2004. „BEYOND NUKES – What comes in Germany after phasing out of Nuclear Energy?“. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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Conference on the Future of Energy in Enlarged Europe:
Perspectives for R&D Co-operation“ A contribution within the context of the
‘Weimar Triangle’ Warsaw, 7- 8th October 2004
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„BEYOND NUKES – What comes in Germany after phasing
out of Nuclear Energy?“
Jürgen Hogrefe,Senior Vice President of EnBW AG – Energie Baden Württemberg, Karlsruhe
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1. Challenge for the German Energy Sector
2. General Conditions and Premises
3. EnBW Generation Strategy
Contents
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Germany has a share of circa
20% of the power installed in
Europe!
Source: Facts and Figures of Electrical Production 2003 ; VGB PowerTech
Note: Translation of the figure see appendix 1
European capacity development
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Assuming a constant need of
power:
Additional capacity in
Germany by 2025 of ca.
61,700 GW as a result of the
age structure and the exit
from nuclear energy
Source: Facts and Figures of Electrical Production 2003 ; VGB PowerTech
Note: Translation of the figure see appendix 2
German capacity development
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1. Challenge for the German Energy Sector
2. General Conditions and Premises
3. EnBW Generation Strategy
Inhalt
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General conditions are generally accepted as the basic parameter for the future of energy.
Supply security
Environmental tolerance and sustainability
Profitability
Political framework
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Target square of an energy supply company in Germany
Kyoto Protocol
Atomic Consensus
Customers‘ price concept
Shareholders‘ idea ofreturns
Are the general conditions such that all the targets can be sufficiently met ?
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General Conditions and Premises
- Development of the national electrical consumptions
- Nuclear energy consensus
- Development of the climate situation
- Assuring the greatest possible autonomy of the national energy supply
- Availability of the primary energy sources oil, gas, coal and their price
development
- Secure the energy supply for the customers
- Technological development in power plants and networks
- Profitability of the energy production under the conditions of a liberalized
market
- Sufficient focus on the national competitive situation
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Lifespan of the German nuclear power plants on the basis of the nuclear energy agreement
Nettostromerzeugung seit 1. Synchronisation bis 31.12.1999
127,3
168,6
128,4
165,8
83,6
121,5
182,9
114,1
165,0
131,6
135,2
127,5
159,4
151,6
130,4
125,0
121,5
110,8
8,7
72,2 TWh
Bisherige Laufzeit bis 31.12.1999
27,6
24,8
23,1
22,9
22,9
20,8
20,3
19,8
17,5
15,8
15,4
14,9
14,9
14,7
13,0
11,7
11,5
10,7
2 *
30,7 J ahre
Reststrommenge ab 1.1.2000übertragbar auf andere Kraftwerke
23,2
62,0
57,3
81,5
47,7
78,3
118,0
87,1
150,0
158,2
160,9
168,3
200,9
198,6
217,9
231,2
230,1
236,0
107,3
8,7 TWh
2.623,30 TWh2.530,97 TWh* davon 13 Monate Stromlieferung;seit 1988 aus juristischen Gründen außer Betrieb bisher insgesamt erzeugt vereinbarte Reststrommenge
01.04.69 Obrigheim
19.05.72 Stade
26.02.75 Biblis A
01.12.76 Neckarwestheim I
31.01.77 Biblis B
09.02.77 Brunsbüttel
21.03.79 Isar I
06.09.79 Unterweser
26.03.80 Philippsburg I
17.06.82 Grafenrheinfeld
28.03.84 Krümmel
19.07.84 Gundremmingen B
18.01.85 Gundremmingen C
01.02.85 Grohnde
18.04.85 Philippsburg II
22.12.86 Brokdorf
09.04.88 Isar II
20.06.88 Emsland
15.04.89 Neckarwestheim II
01.10.87 Mülheim-Kärlich
Beginn kommerzieller Leistungsbetrieb
Transfers of quantities of electricity are possible !Note: Translation of the figure see appendix 3
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• 62 % of those surveyed expect that the residual lifespan of the nuclear power plants will be extended
• Those surveyed are convinced that the German electrical supply cannot be assured without nuclear power and that the exit from nuclear energy and the reduction of emissions are mutually exclusive targets
Source: trend research; Power Plants 2020
Detailed Germany-wide survey of about 80 % of the power plant operators
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Prognosis for regenerative energies in Germany
The share of regenerative energies is limited despite subsidies and substantial growth
Share of renewable energies in the primary energy consumption in 2004 was 3.1 %
Political target according to the German Renewable Energy Act:
Share of renewable energies in electrical supply by 2020 of 20 %;
Note: Translation of the figure see appendix 4
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Replacement of lost capacities
Replacement capacities in the magnitude of the nuclear power plants to be shut down can only be supplied by fossil-fuel power plants for the short-to-medium term
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1. Challenge for the German Energy Sector
2. General Conditions and Premises
3. EnBW Generation Strategy
Inhalt
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Electrical power supplied by EnBW in 2003
Electrical power supplied in 2003 at 75,3 TWh
Nuclear energy represented an important component of the EnBW energy mixture
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Renewable energies at EnBW
Subsidizing of major hydroelectric plants (> 5 MW) on the basis of the amendment of the German Renewable Energy Act
Rebuilding Rheinfelden in the Energiedienst AG (80 % holding of EnBW):• Hydro-electric power plant with total power of 116 MWel• Commencement of operations expected for 2011
Construction of the dam at the Rheinfelden power plant (1st const. phase of rebuilding)
Aerial view of the existing Rheinfelden power plant
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10.000
15.000
2005 2015
MW
Need for coal power plants to be shut down (age-related) and nuclear power plants to be shut down
Own power plants, holdings in power plants and powerplant-like contracts
Option: Capacity for sales increase in growth markets
EnBW capacity needed as a result of power plants lost
Shutdowns as per atomic consensus
Obrigheim (in 2005): 320 MW
Neckarwestheim I (in 2009): 610 MW (EnBW share)
Philippsburg 1 (in 2011): 890 MW
0
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• Increase power of existing conventional power plants
• Extend lifespan of existing conventional power plants
• Rebuild power plants (convert from peak plants to medium and basic power plants)
• Build new power plants
Poss
ibili
ties
for
repla
cin
gca
paci
tyGeneration strategy- Possible replacement measures -
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PWalheim 1El. power 103 MW
Recommencement of operations 01/2005
Lifespan extension measures Increase power
ReactivationWalheim 1, medium power, coal
RetrofittingRheinhafen steam power plant block 7, medium power, coal
Retrofit Rheinhafen steam power plant 7
El. power 492 MWPower gained through retrofit 11 MW Scheduled implementation 10/2005
Examples:
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Options for the building of a new power plant
• Brown coal and hard coal are interesting due to the long-term price stability
• Due to location disadvantages brown coal is not interesting for EnBW
• Natural gas cannot currently be used profitably in the basic power plant due to the high price level
Variable costs
Source: Investments in liberalized energy markets: options, market mechanisms, general conditions; bremer energie institut; January 2004
Note: Translation of the figure see appendix 5
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PProcess prior to investment decision for a new power plant
Time
Power plants capacity development
EnBW sales development(Comparison with PP capacities -> need)
Select primary energy source(Options for EnBW: coal, gas)
Screening of existing EnBW sites(Grid feeding/stability, permit situation, ...)
Detail investigation for selected energy sources and sites
Investment decision
Current status
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Conclusion
• By 2025 61,700 MW of installed power will have to be replaced in Germany as a result of the aging and the exit from nuclear energy
• The target square: atomic consensus, Kyoto Protocol, shareholders’ ideas about returns, customers‘ price ideas have to be met
• According to a survey 80 % of the power plant operators are of the opinion that the German electrical supply cannot be guaranteed without nuclear power and the nuclear energy exit and reduction of emissions are mutually exclusive goals
• Regenerative energies are limited despite subsidies and substantial growth
• Replacement capacities in the magnitude of the nuclear power plants to be shutdown can only be met in the short to middle-term by fossil fuel power plants
• Brown coal and hard coal power plants are economically interesting. Combined cycle power plants are currently not suitable for the basic load as a result of the high price level
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Appendix 1: Translation figure slide 2
Entwicklung des Kraftwerksparks in Europa von 2000-2030
Development of the power plant park from 2000 until 2030 in Europe
Kapazität EU 15 capacity EU 15 GW GW Annahme: Außerbetriebe nach 40 Betriebsjahren.
assumption: shut down after 40 operating years
Sonstige others Erdgas natural gas Kohle (gesamt) coal (total) Kernenergie nuclear energy Wasser hydro-electric power zusätzlicher Bedarf additional need Ersatzbedarf replacement need
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Appendix 2: Translation figure slide 3
Entwicklung des Kraftwerksparks in Europa von 2000-2030
Development of the power plant park from 2000 until 2030 in Europe
Kapazität EU 15 capacity EU 15 GW GW Annahme: Außerbetriebe nach 40 Betriebsjahren.
assumption: shut down after 40 operating years
Sonstige others Erdgas natural gas Steinkohle hard coal Braunkohle brown coal Kernenergie nuclear energy Wasser hydro-electric power Ersatzbedarf replacement need zusätzlicher Ersatzbedarf 21 700 MW durch Kernenergieausstieg
additional replacement need 21,700 MW due to exit from nuclear energy
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Appendix 3: Translation figure slide 10
Beginn kommerzieller Leistungsbetrieb commencement of commercial operation Bisherige Laufzeit bis 31.12.1999 total lifespan until 31/12/1999 Nettostromerzeugung seit 1.Synchronisation bis 31.12.1999
net power generation since 1st synchronization until 31/12/1999
Reststrommenge ab 1.1.2000 übertragbar auf andere Kraftwerke
residual power from 1/1/2000 transferable to other power plants
davon 13 Monate Stromlieferung including 13 months of electrical supply seit 1988 aus juristischen Gründen außer Betrieb
shutdown since 1988 due to legal matters
bisher insgesamt erzeugt total generated until now vereinbarte Reststrommenge residual power agreed upon
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Appendix 4: Translation figure slide 12
Stromimport regenerativ regenerative power import Primärenergie (TWh/a) primary energy (TWh/a) Geothermie geothermal energy Solarkollektoren solar collectors Biomasse biomass Fotovoltaik photovoltaics Windenergie wind energy Wasserkraft hydro-electric power Prozentwert: Anteil am Primärenergieverbrauch
percent value: share of primary energy consumption
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Appendix 5: Translation figure slide 20
Möglicher Einsatzbereich neuer Anlagen als “Preisnehmer”
possible field of application for power plants as “price chargers“
Erdgas heute natural gas today Erdgas 2020 natural gas in 2020 Steinkohle heute hard coal today Steinkohle 2020 hard coal in 2020 Braunkohle heute brown coal today Braunkohle 2020 brown coal in 2020