best of blog posts part 2

7/31/2019 Best of Blog Posts Part 2

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areFL Horse Racing Softwest of the Blog Part 2 & Betting AdvantageB

4/5/2011

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Welcome back to the FL Horse Racing Softwares Best Blog Posts Part 2.

The purpose of this free PDF giveaway is to bundle together some of my most helpful horse

racing blog posts which you can read at will without having to go back to the blog. The posts

themselves offer additional horse racing information which is not always accessible to the

everyday bettor. Ive also include a section for newbies, this is my Betting Advantage PDF

which shows how important the basics are and how to avoid mistakes.

Ive compiled a list of the headlined quotes from all the current blog posts as a way of

quickly addressing common race issues. Mainly as a point of reference to any form study you

may be doing.

Page 3-9, Class Act To Follow by Ross Turner in: Nov 12 - When looking at any horserace we can be certain of one thing and one thing only. One of these horses will win the race

The ability of each horse cannot solely lie with its last race or last couple of races

From 30 feet away she looked like a lot of class. From 10 feet away she looked like

something made up to be seen from 30 feet away. Raymond Chandler

Page 10-13, Focus On Fitness by Ross Turner Dec 13 - Fit and race fit are twocompletely different things

Page 14-17, Punter to Professional by Ross Turner Jan 13 Is one month really longenough to get used to using the FL software? Thinking about how you cans find profitable

ways to use the FL Software should be one of your main focuses whether you are successful

using it already or not.

Page 18-26, Quick Fire Win or Lose Racing Guide by Ross Turner March 4th Simply identify the number of runners in the race that the selection is running in and select

the appropriate row from the table

Page 27-30, Bonus: Betting Advantage Planning, Ground Conditions, Patience, Form,and Consistency is the Key, Distance, Weight, & Discipline

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ClassActToFollowby Ross Turner in: Nov 12

Friday already..!

Is it me or do the weeks just seem to fly by at the moment, Im constantly reminded by my

elders that as the years tick by you notice time seems to move a great deal faster however you

seem to move a great deal slower, Im hoping its just the cold weather.

Maybe this is another reason why some people just want to get to the nitty gritty of form

reading and really just apply a few methods to enable them to quickly differentiate between

possible selection.

I do think that sometimes over study can play apart in what you are actually trying to achieve

as a form reader and the notion of form reading perfection seems unattainable for the average

racing enthusiast. My point here is to make sure everyone not only understand what we are

trying to do when looking at a horses chances within a race, but also that you are able to

apply some of the reasons and methods laid out within this blog. By not only encouraging

you to introduce some of the methods into your own selection process, but to do so quickly

and easily but most importantly, effectively.

When looking at any horse race we can be certain of one thing and one thing only. One

of these horses will win the race

Now Im sure a few of you may be saying, Yes but what about a dead heat?

Lets not worry about that as the odds for this happening in the race you are dealing with are

somewhat remote, and Ive only ever been involved in a handful of races when this affected

my selection. Even with a dead heat this is certainly better than the horse finishing runner up.

Now Im certain someone will dig out the facts for dead heats for this year and last and I

know Ive read it somewhere already but I cant remember off the top of my head today.

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Class Act To Follow

Watching and taking note of how a close race or a weak affair finished can give you a great

insight in the structure of the race and the horses performing within it. Especially if you

following a particular horses progress.

As we all know Handicap races are supposed to finish with all the horses finishing together,

at least that what the Handicapper is trying to predict when handing out penalties.

Unfortunately certain aspects of todays elements, horses form past or present as well as any

current fitness issues allow little chance of this actually happening. Usually what happens is

that the horses running in Handicap races are just as strung out as in all other types of races.

So how do we start to predict todays performances, well you should normally start by

looking at the figures that todays horses have ran previously. In general when horses runwell they receive good finishing form numbers and when they dont they receive bad ones.

This is taking recent form into account only and we all know by now that there is more to this

than first meet the betting eye.

The ability of each horse cannot solely lie with its last race or last couple of races

There are many reasons why a horse may not run to its recent form numbers, such as

unsuitable distance, wrong type of track, draw biases, pace problems, trouble getting an open

run, wrong ground conditions, class, and the list goes on. However what you need to do at

this early stage of the selection process is to determine which horses seem capable under

reasonable circumstances, of winning the race.

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Class Act To Follow Some races are easier than others to qualify and the reason for this has to be the quality of the

race as well as the history of the horses competing.

What to look for;

One way to determine the competition is to follow the Official Rating of the top 3 to 4

runners within todays race. If the top rated horse for example is running of an official rating

of 79, and the other three horses have exceeded or been around this number recently and

nobody else within the race has beaten a 79 rated horse, its not likely someone will pull off asurprise. The simple way to do this is look at all horses last runs (if won) and see what type of

competition they ran against in their last race, the Racing Post history will give you all the

Official Ratings of horses it ran against previously. At this stage of the process youre not

really evaluating form but simply getting a feel for each horse and its ability.

Race Class;

From 30 feet away she looked like a lot of class. From 10 feet away she looked like

something made up to be seen from 30 feet away. Raymond Chandler

The argument for horses chances of winning when dropping back in Class than whenstepping up in Class gives a good indication of what to look for.

There are several reasons for this;

1: The Easier Pace Of Lower Class Races.

2: The Quality Of The Opposition, (some of which may be moving up in class to compete).

3: The Fact That A Horse Is Often Dropped In Class After A Dull Effort (and then it

produces its usually effort in milder competition.

4: The Previous Class Not Suiting The Horse (especially after a long layoff as well as having

a fitness issues).

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Class Act To Follow

Prize money in Handicap races is the bread and butter for any stable throughout the season,

so what affect does this have on Class?

Quality of the field can be determined by the prize money on offer, understanding the Class

hierarchy within a particular track will go a long way to point you in the direction of potential

selections.

Ask yourself this; is the quality of the competition in a 2500 race for Non Handicaps at

Kempton tougher than or not as tough as a 4000 race for Non Handicap types at Southwell,what kind of field is attracted to smaller prize money races? Especially if some of the runners

were previously racing for 6500 prize money races a few months ago.

When horses go up or down in Class they also go in and out of form, as a rule of thumb the

higher Class races present the horse with a greater number of potential race rivals. Whenlooking at Class past and present of a potential selection I would suggest you look at how

successful the horse has been in the past in relation to todays Class, rather than noting that

the horse has ran in this Class but did nothing.

If a horse has shown in the past that it can compete in this Class then there is a positive that

the horse may repeat that run again today. Look for a horse which has at least placed in

todays Class, over similar trip and ground conditions.

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Class Act To Follow Truly Dropping Back in Class;

For example, lets say Horse A wins and places in four races over Class 4 conditions, one

win, one second place and two third places. The trainer then decides to step Horse A up to

Class 2 competition where the horse finishes 11th.

The trainer then decides to enter the horse in a Class 3 race to hopefully improve the horses

chances. The question we now need to ask ourselves is does this mean now that the horse has

dropped back in Class? And the answer is this, well no not really.

Let me explain, due to the level of the horses success we know his best performances have

come at Class 4 where we can expect him to give us a run for our money. His performances

at Class 4 are proven; his performances are not proven in Class 2 races where he managed to

achieve nothing apart from make up the numbers. He is not even proven at Class 3 where he

still might be simply outclassed.

Sometimes its difficult to gauge Class levels and the greater numbers of horses you have in

the race where the trainer has moved them through this Class shifting process. Its worth

paying attention when the more respected and higher percentage 20% plus strike rate trainers

move their horses up or down in Class. Again a big drop in Class usually means a drop inconfidence or the desire to offload a particular horse; however a step up can indicate the

opposite.

Dont get this confused with the normal trainer types as this only really applies to the trainers

right at the top of their game. By including this point Im by no means trying to confuse you

with the step up or drop back in Class overall.

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Class Act To FollowPoint to Ponder;

Having horses that have at least 8 races minimum gives you some history to work with, the

more the better. If all the horses in a particular race have a similar level of history then it may

be easier to work through the pack.

While recent form is important , any horse which has shown itself to have previous Class

form must be taken into account and monitored respectively as there is a chance the horse

may very well return to its previous racing ability.

If the horse was competing successfully 8 months ago then missed the next few months for

whatever reason, then came back on its first start only to produce nothing like its past form,

this could be seen as expected.

It may be that the horse simply needs to attain a certain level of race fitness again to return to

its former success despite its disappointing first return run. Remember recent form and past

performances need to be taken equally into account and their merits awarded the relevant

approval.

Finally;

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Class Act To Follow I would suggest when doing this type of pre race analysis, if 2 or even 3 horses are standing

out above the rest of the field and you cannot really separate one horse from another, my

advice is to back them all.

Now you can play around with the staking here if you wish, but in terms of trying to find the

race leaders you should never really have more than 3 outright backing selections in any

given race unless the race is a really tight affair in which case it may be wise to avoid such

races.

Its always better to spread or simply Dutch your bets rather than leave one selection out of

the fold only to see him win by a nose. Especially if you are getting started with racing,

dutching can be an ideal opportunity for some welcomed early success. You never know

you may even find yourself involved with a dead heat.

Have A Great Weekend,

Ross

p.s, I have no idea where this bear race photo was taken and which sick bastard thought this

was a good idea, you certainly wouldnt think the Queen would be interested in sitting thoughthe full Race Card. Who knows what the hell is going through the bears mind, If I win this

next time its Ascot. Answers in a comment please

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FocusOnFitnessbyRossTurnerDec13

A Ferrari in the showroom cannot out run a Volvo thats on the road. Therefore the search for

horses with good speed power and class credentials must be treated by how they appear on

form.

Instead of simply betting the horses with the lowest form figures, you should start to look for

horses that appear to be rounding into condition. Sharp fit horses often out ran their latest

form numbers while classy animals whose form was suspect often ran worse than projected.

Some consensuses on the characteristics of horses that are considered to be in form are

among the positives;

The horse finished within five lengths of the winner last time out in its regular class.

The horse ran at or near the front of the pack until at least the final furlong, or the

horse passed several rivals on the run in.

The horse has been working regularly, with no gaps in the fitness lines; this is based on

how the horse has been training at its stable.

The horse shows no gaps in his racing entries. If he usually races every four weeks,

make sure he does not suddenly show an 8 week gap.

The horse was overmatched last time out but ran his usually mark. The horse may

have ran against better classed opposition, was the horse stepped up in class or was the

race a tougher than the usual affair.

To be considered to be in form, a horse should have accomplished at least one of these points

above. Conversely a horse that has done little but run around in the back of the pack, never

really making a move, can generally be quickly dismissed as a contender without a massivedrop in class.

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Focus On Fitness

An exception is a turf horse that got trapped behind a slow pace and came home in his usual

quick fashion. Other indicators of possible poor form include the additional of front wraps, a

class drop after a win or a double or triple drop after an in the money finish. A switch of

stables from a top trainer to a lower grade stable especially if accompanied by a class drop,

frequent breaks in both the training and racing patterns a too fat or too skinny appearance on

race day and a sudden lack of early speed from a horse who previously was known for quick

starts.

Fit and race fit, are two completely different things

Lets take, boxing for an example, a fighter coming back from an injury or after a fight at a

higher level may still be fit in a general but will usually schedule a number of less classy

opponents to give him a chance to get his skills and ring fitness back up to scratch, also

confidence is a big part of the winning process, it allows a mental edge to develop.

Similar in horse racing, from a horses perspective getting its head in front shows a will to

compete, dig deep and ultimately win. Its more difficult for a horse to do this against similar

class opposition if the horse is just back from a lay off or back from injury. You may also

hear about trainers having their horses in for breathing operations, this is quite common and

even the mighty Denman, was whisked into the theatre to have a procedure. This is quitestandard as far as horse operations go, certainly compared to having a nose job..!

Horses use a great deal of stamina, during a race and their muscles require a great deal of fuel

and preparation to allow the horse to run to a very high standard. If they are rushed back into

the mix to quickly this may actually break them down rather than help them to recover at a

steady pace and gain there fitness levels back previously.

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Focus On Fitness

You may see a horse brought back lightly raced over the next two or three runs to make sure

its progression is steady. Dont expect a horse which has been off the course for 6-12 months

to suddenly put in a winning performance.

Like everything to do with horse racing there are exceptions to the rule, such as jumps or flat

specialist horses which are proven to come back strong after a long season layoff, this is

usually down to the stable been able to deliver these horses to the track in a top physical

condition.

It is down to the trainers skill and knowledge of the individual horse they are working with

to determine when the horse needs a rest and when it needs another race or two to get back

into winning contention.

A racehorse is a finely tuned animal, its nature needs to be assessed and its fitness program

like any other athlete mapped out and cycled to allow it to peak at the right time for the right

race. It cannot achieve constant form figures of first places forever. They will be times when

you can clearly see a drop off in form coming or when you notice how a horse has seemed to

increase in performance and distance over the same course, distance, against weaker and then

stronger competition.

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Focus On Fitness Sometimes you will just know, and I realise this sounds slightly mystic ball, however the

more your involved with racing the more you have your nose to the ground as it were the

more likely you will be to spot opportunities when they arise.

Usually these are easier to spot in the bigger meetings and all the top horses have prepared

for one particular race and a quick look at recent performances can be a great view point to

find a winner. However on a daily or weekly basis there are a number of points which you

can easily apply to your form reading capabilities.

For now I just want to leave you all with a guide to what to start to look for when

making fitness decisions;

Check the horses last Race Comments, to see how the horse ran in its last race.

Look for comments such as if a horse finished strongly or slowed down 1f from home, if

the horse was one paced or chased the leader home.

This can be a good indication to whether the horse is running into form, so make sure you

check the last race and look for improvements in finishing positions if the horse ran the same

class distance, ground conditions as last time.

Go back and look through the horses history to see if any patterns seem to match from the

previous season. Form figures will give you a good idea as to how the horse performs from

race to race after a layoff.

Points to consider;

Flat Races Winning Percentages.

86 % of horses returning on the flat within a 28 day period won their races.

Jumps Races Winning Percentages

73 % of horses returning within a 21 day period won their races.

So backing anything returning after 28 days must be treated with caution. Note only ignore

these rules when races such as Group 1 & 2 are considered. This is because the top horses

and a four week form cycle do not apply.

Talk Soon

Ross

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PuntertoProfessionalin30DaysbyRossTurner Jan 13th

Is one month really long enough to get used to using the FL software? Now Im not just

saying this to make sure I get additional months subscription out of new members. Im asking

the question which you should be asking yourselves before you actually press the "Add to

Cart" button next time around.

If anything is worth investing in then surely you need to allow that investment, whether its

time, money or skill to develop and then flourish. Of course along the way there will be

errors, frustrations, highs and low, and maybe some nail biting thrown in for good measure,

but life is not all about the end product its about how we get there. Sometimes you can be so

blinded by the end result that you miss the actual ride.

Think of it this way, how many driving lessons did you take before you took your Driving

Test, 10, 20, 80? you see for some people it may have been a few, for others a lot more. We

all are good at certain skills and not so good at others, some men can iron a crisp white shirt,for others it end up looking like an old sock thats been lying at the bottom of the washing

basket for a week. The question you need to ask yourself is; are you giving yourself enough

practises to pass before you quit?

How long did it actually take you to go from Newbie, to Novice to Advanced in your driving

career? Im guessing a while.

Are you been too hard on yourself when it comes to expecting instant success? Are you

blaming other people, the weather, lady luck or the missus? If you already call the missus

lady luck then good on ya

Either way Im here as youre lets call me your assistant. I dont like the word teacher

due to the fact it reminds me of school to much which in turn reminds me of boring lessons of

little interest on my part apart from Maths and Art, maybe some English from time to time.

I certainly dont mind doing all I can to help guide you along the road to seeing success at the

end of it. Unlike some people within this market who keep the mystic ball stashed in a

cupboard at the bottom of the stairs carefully wrapped in a Tescos shopping bag. For me if I

have extra information which I think might benefit some or all then Im going to share it with

you. It does not cost me anything apart from maybe a little time which I could be spending

practising ironing my shirts. To actually collect all the information together and make it read

able is a small price to pay on my behalf.

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Punter to Professional in 30 Days You see Ive been giving a great deal of thought lately to how members use the software and

how they consume the information they are presented with, and I think I can improve a great

deal of what we are trying to do. By doing this Im sure I can get you to where you want to be

in terms of sports betting. How Im going to do this is not important at the moment but rest

assured I will do it and soon.

Thinking about how you cans

find profitable ways to use the FL Software should be one of your main focuses whether you

are successful using it already or not. Identifying areas you are not successful in is of less

importance than areas which you are successful in. This may sound a little strange so let me

explain.

Most footballers have one foot which they either prefer or in most cases can only use. Now

what they tend to focus on is making their preferred foot better by practising every day. Now

other footballers maybe adept at using both feet, we call these show offs, however just

because one foot is better than the other doesnt mean the other is any less important. It also

doesnt mean that there is no reason why you cannot practice with the less favoured foot to

bring it up to a standard to almost equal your preferred foot.

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16/30

Punter to Professional in 30 Days For those who think Ive finally lost the plot its really quite simple. Work on bringing you

current or favoured method up to scratch, to achieve a higher level of success, refine it, make

it greater, then once you succeed in doing this you can work on developing other weaker

areas until you have something else in your armoury to fall back on. Once you manage to do

the hard work the first time around there is no reason why you cannot do it again and again.

Once you get to the stage where you can use both skill sets then youre in a much greater

position compared to the average punter out there.

FL Created A Form Reading Tool, So Use It

I love getting emails from members, especially the ones who ask questions or want to learn

more. I must admit within the FL members group we have what I like to call the FL core.

Core members are something of a rare bread these days, I hear little from them, they are a

small yet solid group, they keep themselves to themselves, but they are always watching,

always listening and always up to date. They log into the Software almost every day (and yes

I can check) and most of them have been with me for a long time. They understand racing

and they know what suits their particular race needs.

The reason I mention them is for this reason, I admire them, and the reason is because they

help me to understand which direction I need to take in order to protect the needs of currentor future members. These core members didnt just wake up one day and start betting at the

bookies, actually maybe they did but Im guessing whichever way they got started they did it

for one if not two reasons;

Reason Number 1: To Win Money.

Reason Number 2: For A Love Of Racing.

Being passionate about your chosen career, sport or hobby will get you a long way even if

youre missing a few key ingredients, mix in some skill and a will to learn and youre

certainly on the right path. You see these core members didnt suddenly become advanced

bettors, it took them years not weeks or months. I myself am in my 8th year and still learning

still developing, looking for new ways to develop my skill set to find other methods within

methods to explore what others may have missed.

My point is, if youre in racing or any sports betting for the fact you must win money and

quickly then please leave now. Its not possible, maybe dropping that extra Christmas weight

and becoming a Jockey would suit you best. But if your here to learn and to fine tune your

current skill set no matter how little your experience, then you have come to the right place

and without a doubt 2011 will be the year you finally get the answers youve been looking

for.

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17/30

Punter to Professional in 30 Days Having the software or any other product for a month and either giving up or simply saying

its not working for me sometimes needs to be questioned, is this a true reflection on the

product or are you just looking for the next new shiny toy in the box?

Members use the software differently with different

results, there are no right or wrong answers, its intended to suit every ones needs, within this

flexibility lies its strength.

One of the key factors here is that having a tool at your disposal which not only saves time

and effort but also shows you the horses with the best ratings figures in a particular race,

there past and current patterns, there statistics over filters and conditions has to be looked at

in greater detail, first glance simply isnt enough.

Start thinking outside the box and great things can happen. Racing is not just about winning

and losing, it has to be about so much more. Its just not as clear cut or ready to be defined as

two opposite ends of the spectrum.

Let me know what you think, Im always happy to hear from you

Talk Soon

Ross

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QuickFireWinorLoseRacingGuidebyRossTurnerMar 14th

I had an interesting email from a member last

week regarding historical data and stats which he uses daily within his betting. He was asking

me a few questions over Email regarding different ways in which to use the software. A

couple of days later he sent me what he had put together.

From time to time he sends me his betting thoughts and a few ideas he is having about

racing/systems/strategies. I think he likes to run things by me so I can give my seal ofapproval, which I certainly dont mind doing as long as I have the free time to do so. Anyway

we got chatting and he follows up with types of races and favourite winning percentages in

relation to his betting activity. He uses the software ratings to whittle down his selection

process by mainly using a table showing past data of races showing favourites, non favourites

etc. Depending on the table he would look for laying or backing opportunities within the

software. He basically structures his betting to the table and eliminates selections which dont

fit the past data. Sound simple enough right?

So I asked him if he would mind me sharing his thoughts and finding with the rest of the blog

readers and he said of course, but dont mention my name..! Why not Brian, I asked ? he

said in case my wife reads it and shell know what Ive been doing, instead of walking herdogs and looking after the mother in law while the wife does nightshift! After laughing out

loud I agreed. To be honest he would not be the first member Ive had who hid his betting

activity/hobbies from the missus. Live and let live thats my motto, well one of them at least.

Ok so lets get into Brians stuff so you can use it possibly to achieve a greater strike rate

within your own betting or even to point you in a different direction all together, who knows,

but its certainly something you should be considering if youre not already doing so.

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Quick Fire Win or Lose Racing Guide RacesTypesTheGoodtheBad&theUgly

Our greatest asset apart from having software do much of the gruntwork for us is our betting bank. The way we use it and protect it is vital as without great care

and attention our betting activities will simply cease. So how do we go about doing such a

thing, well firstly you must ensure that you use every percentage of your bank in an effective

professional manner and dont abuse it. One way of protecting your bank is to carefully select

the races that you are involved with, whether that is on a daily or weekly basis.

As anyone who has tried his/her hand in horse racing the first thing you notice is the huge

amount of variables associated with a horse. Examples of these variables can range from,

recent form, past form, ground conditions, distance, course, jockey and trainer stats, the list

goes on.

Some variables have a greater influence on the outcome of a race whereas other variables

have far less of an effect. If we look at three variables in particular, these variables are found

to have a relatively greater influence on the outcome of a horse race within a race.

Race Type; That The Horse Is Competing Within.

Number of Runners Within The Race.

Odds Of The Selection.

Let look at and consider the types of races and the number of runners/odds of the selection.

As a general rule of thumb on average only 35% of favourites win their races.

There are certain types of races in which favourites perform much better. There are also

certain types of races in which they tend to perform far worse. By using this type of

information we can point towards the right direction as to which race types are more

beneficial to the type of betting you are involved with, whether its Backing, Laying or

Dutching etc.

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20/30

Quick Fire Win or Lose Racing Guide The chart below shows the strike rate of favourites in various race types:

As you can see by the chart the types of races with have an above average favourite strike

rate (35%) are shown in the last third of the chart in silver. The above table results relate to

races which were run in the UK between 1991 and March 2008.

Ok so we now have some additional data so how do we make the best use of it..? Well, that

depends on what you are trying to achieve. If a selection system identifies favourites which

are to be backed to win, we should concentrate on those selections that are running in race

types which are shown in (Silver)since their strike rates are above the average (35%).

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21/30

Quick Fire Win or Lose Racing Guide This provides our selections with the best winning opportunities. Those types of races which

are elsewhere on the chart should be avoided since the strike rates of favourites, running in

these types of races, are below the average for winning favourites. This provides our

selections with the worst winning opportunities statistically.

Ifyouareworkingwithaselectionsystemwhichidentifiesnonfavouriteswhicharetobebackedtowin,thereforeopposingfavouritesyoushouldconcentrateonthoseselections

thatarerunninginracetypeswhichareshowninblueuptoandincludingNationalHunt

Flat,as

the

graph

clearly

shows

favourites

which

run

is

these

types

of

races

have

strike

rates

thatarebelowtheaverage(35%).

Simply put this means that race favourites are more unlikely to win. This provides non-

favourites with the best winning opportunities.

Those types of races which are shown in Silverare best avoided since the strike rates of

favourites, running in those types of races, are above the average. This provides non-

favourites with the worst winning opportunities.

Ifaselectionsystemidentifiesfavouriteswhicharetobelayedtolose,weshouldconcentrate

on

those

selections

that

are

running

in

race

types

which

are

shown

in

blue

since

theirstrikeratesarebelowtheaverage(35%).

This provides selections with the best losing opportunities. Those types of races which are

shown in Silver are best avoided since the strike rates of favourites, running in those types of

races, are significantly higher than normal. This provides non-favourites with the worst losing

opportunities.

Ifaselectionsystemidentifiesnonfavouriteswhicharetobelayedtolose,weshouldconcentrateonthoseselectionsthatarerunninginracetypeswhichareshowninSilver

sincethestrikeratesoffavouriteswhichruninthosetypesofracesareabovetheaverage

(35%).

This provides non-favourites with the best losing opportunities. Those types of races which

are shown in blue type are best avoided since the strike rates of favourites, running in those

types of races, are below the average. This provides non-favourites with the best winning

opportunities and hence, the worst losing opportunities.

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22/30

Quick Fire Win or Lose Racing Guide

To clear up any possible confusion regarding the above backing or laying favourites or non

favourites, below you will find a very helpful table which you can use easily to spot potential

back or lay opportunities within any race type you may currently be looking into.

All you need to do when using the table below is to select the type of race your selection is

running in, then chose between the back or lay, favourite or non favourite. If the selected

element of the table contains a (Yes), then the bet has a better than average chance of

succeeding (winning). If the selected element of the table contains a No, then the bet has a

worse than average chance of succeeding (losing) and is best avoided.

For Example;

Lets suppose that a selection system that identifies horses that are to be backed to win has

identified the favourite in a Novice Chase. From the table, we can see that, if we look along

the (Novice Chase) row and look at the table element under the (Back Favourite) column, it

contains a (Yes). Therefore, the bet stands a better than average chance of succeeding. In fact,

if we take a look at the first graph in this post, we will see that the strike rate of favourites in

Novice Chase races is 48%.

Another Example;

Lets suppose that a laying selection system has identified a non-favourite in a Selling

Handicap. From the table below, it can be seen that, if we look along the (Selling Handicap)

row and look at the table element under the (Lay Non-Favourite) column, it contains a (No).

Therefore, our bet stands a worse than average chance of succeeding. In fact, if we take a

look at the first graph in this post, you can see that the strike rate of favourites running in

Selling Handicaps is only 22%. Therefore, it is highly likely that the favourite will lose and

that a non-favourite will win the race. Therefore, the selection is best avoided in this

particular case.

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23/30

Quick Fire Win or Lose Racing Guide Type of Races -Selection Back/Lay

Making use of the above table will not guarantee success. However, there is every chance

that the strike rate of any system you are using will be improved. You could use these graphs

and tables as an added filter to your selection process or as a final check before placing any

bets.

Number of Runners;

As discussed earlier, our greatest asset is our betting bank. It should therefore be used in the

most effective and efficient manner possible. One way of ensuring this is to carefully selectthe races that you are involved with, particularly with regard to the number of runners in the

race.

Although, on average, only 35% of favourites win their races, the fewer runners that there are

in a race, the more likely it is that the favourite will win.

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24/30

Quick Fire Win or Lose Racing Guide The chart below shows the strike rate of favourites by number of runners in the race:

The above table relates to races ran in the UK between 1991 and March 2008.

Ok so although we now have this additional data, how can we make the best use of it? Well,

that depends on what we are actually trying to achieve.

Ifaselectionsystemidentifiesfavouriteswhicharetobebackedtowin,weshouldconcentrateonthosethatarerunninginraceswithlessthaneightrunners.Thestrikeratesoffavouriteswhichruninsuchracesareabovetheaverage(35%).Thisprovidesfavourites

withthebestwinningopportunities.

Those field sizes which are shown at the top of the chart are best avoided since the strike

rates of favourites, running in such races, are below the average (35%). This providesfavourites with the worst winning opportunities.

24
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25/30

Quick Fire Win or Lose Racing Guide Ifaselectionsystemidentifiesnonfavouriteswhicharetobebackedtowin,weshould

concentrateonthosethatarerunninginraceswhichareshowingbelowtheaveragesince

thestrikeratesoffavouriteswhichruninsuchracesarebelowtheaverage(35%).This

providesnonfavouriteswiththebestwinningopportunities.

Those field sizes which are showingabove 35 % are best avoided since the strike rates of

favourites, running in such races, are above the average. This provides non-favourites with

the worst winning opportunities.

Ifaselectionsystemidentifiesfavouriteswhicharetobelayedtolose,weshouldconcentrateonthosethatarerunninginfieldsizeswhichareshownlargerthan1011

runnerssincethestrikeratesoffavouriteswhichruninsuchracesarebelowtheaverage

(35%).Thisprovidesfavouriteswiththebestlosingopportunities.

Those field sizes which are shown from 6-7, 2-5 are best avoided since the strike rates of

favourites, running in such races, are above the norm. This provides non-favourites with the

worst losing opportunities.

Ifaselectionsystemidentifiesnonfavouriteswhicharetobelayedtolose,weshouldconcentrate

on

those

that

are

running

in

field

sizes

which

are

shown

in

above

the

35%

type

sincethestrikeratesoffavouriteswhichruninsuchracesareabovetheaverage.This

providesnonfavouriteswiththebestlosingopportunities.

Those types of races which are shown above the average (35%) bar are best avoided since the

strike rates of favourites, running in such races, are below the average. This provides non-

favourites with the worst losing opportunities. If all this seems slightly confusing then dont

worry, we have created yet another table below which shows exactly which races you should

avoid.

Simply identify the number of runners in the race that the selection is running in and

select the appropriate row from the table

Now, look along the four remaining columns to the one that best describes the type of bet that

you intend to place (back/lay) and the type of horse that you intend your bet to apply to

(favourite or non-favourite). If the selected element of the table contains a (Yes) then the bet

has a better than average chance of succeeding. If the selected element of the table contains a

(No), then the bet has a worse than average chance of succeeding and is best avoided.

25


26/30

Quick Fire Win or Lose Racing Guide For Example;

Lets suppose that our backing selection system has identified the favourite in a race

containing seven runners. From the table, we can see that, if we look along the (6 7) row of

the table element under the (Back Favourite) column, it contains a (Yes). Therefore, our bet

stands a better than average chance of succeeding. In fact, if we take a look at the above table

in this, we will see that the strike rate of favourites in races that contain between six and

seven runners is 40%.

Example 2;

Lets suppose that our laying system has identified a non-favourite in a race containing 11

runners. From the table, we can see that, if we look along the (10 11) row and look at the

table element under the (Lay Non-Favourite) column, it contains a (No). Therefore, our bet

stands a worse than average chance of succeeding. In fact, if we look at the chart above, we

will see that the strike rate of favourites in races that contain between 10 and 11 runners is

only 33%. Therefore, it is highly likely that a non-favourite will win the race. Therefore, the

selection is best avoided in this case.

Using historical data like these charts has its place within any system due to the fact that

within horse racing past form, results and stats do constantly overlap and repeat themselves

from year to year. I hope you can find some additional benefit from the charts and tablesprovided. Remember making use of them will not guarantee success, however there is every

chance that the strike rate of any system you may be using will be improved greatly.

Talk Soon

Ross

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27/30

Containedwithinthischapterareanumberofareaswhichmayseemalittlebasic,howeverbeyond

anydoubtyoucanbeassuredtheyareimportant.Thenextfewparagraphsmaybesomeofthemost

importantyouwilleverreadconcerninggambling.Theideathatanyonewithlittleornoknowledge

cansuddenlymakealivingfromgamblingisafable.

Likeanyotherprofessionunlessyouhavethetoolsforthejoborthe,knowhow,howelsedoyou

expecttosucceed.Youmightbeabletomuddlethroughratherblindlyforawhile,butitwillonlybe

amatteroftimebeforeyoubecomeunstuck,howmuchdependsonyou.

BeforeIgive

you

some

pointers

on

selecting

alosing

horse,

let

me

ask

you

this

question.

Haveyoueverconsideredhavingagameplanforyourbettingstrategies?Itsfineifyouhavenever

consideredagameplan,aslongasyouhaventplacedanybetsyet.Iftheanswersyesthenreading

onmayaidyouincompilingyourplanofattackandalsohelpyoutoexecuteyourstrategy.If

Youreanswerisnothenletsbegin.

Peopleingeneraldonthaveagoodplan.Assimpleasthisseemsmostwillignoreplanningandlook

aheadtohowtheyintendtospendtheirwinnings.Thisisthefirstmistake.Nothavingaplanislike

buildingahouse

without

the

architects

blueprint.

You

simply

wont

know

where

to

start

and

when

tostop.Withoutanydoubt,havingagoodplanisthebasisofallsuccessfulventures.

Inlayinghorsesagoodplanmeansknowingtheamountofmoneyyouwouldliketomakeovera

periodoftime,whetherthatisdaily,weeklyormonthlyisdependentonyourownrequirements.A

comprehensiveplanshouldincludetheexactstepsneededtoachieveyourgoalwithouttakinghuge

risks.Insimpletermswantingtomakemoneyfromgamblingwithoutaplanislikestartingona

journeywithoutactuallyknowingwhereyouwouldliketogo.

Everythingelsebeenequalgroundconditionisthesinglemostinfluencingfactortoeffectthe

outcomeofarace.Mosthorsesfinditverydifficulttocopewithsoftergroundespeciallywhenthey

havebeencontinuallyracingonfirmgroundforseveralmonths.Staminaplaysanenormouspart

whenthegroundsoftenandwhenthegroundbecomesheavyanythingcanhappen.Course

conditionsclassedassoftarenotamajorproblembutaheavytracknotoriouslycontributesto

upsettingresults.

Animportantfactortokeepinmindisthateventhoughacoursecouldbedescribedassoftearlyin

themorning;itdoesnotmeanthatthesameconditionswillexisttowardstheendoftheraceday.

Afterseveralraceshavebeenrunthecourseconditioncouldeasilychange.

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28/30

Nothavingenoughpatience.Nowthistopicwillbecompletelyrelevanttoatleast70%0fpeople

readingthisbook.Thereasonsforthisaresimple;peoplelivebusylivesthesedays.Everythingisso

fastpacedthatsometimesyoujustcantaffordtobepatient.Howeverwithgamblingtheworse

mostsouldestroyingthingyoucoulddoisletyourimpatientnaturegetthebetterofyou.

Peoplewantandexpecttomaketoomuch,tooquickly.Beingtotallyunrealisticwiththe

expectationsontheirreturnstheygambleontoomanyhorsespayinghighliabilitiesandwhenthat

rankoutsiderfinallywins,disaster.

Theyalsospendtheirhardearnedmoneyonlucrativebutweaksystemsbasedonpoorquality

informationorsillybeliefs.Turningaworkingbankof20.00into1,000ormoreinjustoneweekis

unrealisticandextremelydifficulttoachieve.Yesweallwanttogetrichquick,noonewantstowait

forever,butbeingrealisticplaysamassivepartbetweenachievingthatgoalandfailing.

Formisahorsespastperformance.Asimportantasformistopickingwinninghorses,itisnot

importantenough

to

be

solely

relied

on

to

determine

the

outcome

of

arace.

In

saying

that,

the

bettingpublicusuallyreliesonlyonformtohelpselectwinners;theresultisalossofmoney.Very

fewhorsescanbereliedonsolelybasedontheconsistencyofitswinsthroughoutitscareer.

Justlikehumans,horsesalsohavealifecycle.Ifformwereaclearguidetopickinglosing/winning

horseseverybodywouldbedoingit.Itsnotthateasy!Horsesareanimalsunlesssomeofyou

actuallythoughtheyweremachines,theyarepronetomakingmistakes,runningabadrace,peaking

tosoonornotpeakingatall.

Notbeing

consistent

enough.

Even

when

an

unprofitable

punter

finally

finds

ahighly

profitable

system,heorshegenerallystopsusingitafterafewloses.Whattheyfailtorealizeisthatevery

systemhaslosingruns.Thesearesimplyasmallnumberoflossesinarow.Successfulpuntersknow

thattheselosingrunsarenottobetakenseriouslyandtheyarejustpartofmakingmoneyfrom

gambling.Thereallysadfactisthatattheendofmostlosingrunsarelongandhighlyprofitable

winningstreaks.Unfortunatelylosingpuntersusuallyquitjustbeforepayday,nevergettingthe

chanceofexperiencingthejoyofmakingaconsistentprofitfromgambling.Thissimplyleadsthem

backtotheiroldrecklesshabits,someofwhichcouldendtheregamblingcareerindefinitely.

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29/30

Justlikeathletes,horsesdonotadaptwelltosuddendistancechanges.Whenahorsetrainsforand

winsa16furlongrace,itwillhaveconsiderabledifficultiesrunningitsnextraceover10furlongsand

winningit.Whythishappenscannotfullybeexplainedherebutitsabilitytoaffecttheoutcomeof

aracecantbestressedenough.Usuallyahorserunningwelloveracertaindistanceatitslastrace

willnottakeareductionindistanceofmorethan1.5furlongstoowell.

Ontheotherhandanincreaseindistanceofupto2.5furlongscouldbetotallyharmless.Ihaveseen

countlessraceswherethefavouritehaslosttheracesolelyduetothesignificantdecreasein

distancefromitslaststart.Someracingpunditsclaimthatagoodhorseshouldbeabletobounce

betweenthedifferentdistances.Whatthesesocalledracingpunditshavenotseenisthefatalities

suchunproventheorieshavebeencausingatthecourse!

Extraweightisaddedtohorsesinafieldtomakethefieldconsistentsothatallhorseshavesimilar

chancesof

winning

the

race.

Although

not

the

best

way

of

making

afield

even

in

strength,

the

practiceiswidelyusedandthereforecannotbeignored.Igenerallydonotconsiderasmallamount

ofaddedweightathreattoahorsesperformance.

However,ifyouselectahorsethatisatthetopoftheweightlisttolosethenyoudohavetolookat

thingsabitdifferently.IfitissignificantlyheavierthanthenextheaviesthorseIwouldseriously

considerlayingsuchaprospect.Ontheotherhandifthehorseyouhaveselectedtoloseislighter

thanmostofitsopponentsthatareofsimilarstrengththenyourpickcouldbeatanadvantage.The

bestscenarioforpickingalosinghorsebyitsweightisselectingahorsethatisatthesameweightor

heavierthanitsrivalsandisofsimilarstrengthplusitiscarryingmoreweightinthisracewhen

comparedtoitslaststart.

Notbeingdisciplinedenough.Gamblingwithagoodplan,havinglotsofpatience,beingconsistent

andnotbeinggreedyareallnotworthapennyunlessyoucanfollowthemstrictly.Agoodsystem

wouldhaveitsownclearlydefinedsetofrules.Thismakesthesystemfullyautomatedenablingthe

selectionoflosing/winninghorseswithoutanyhumandecisionatall.Anastutepunterknowsthe

importanceofhavingrulesandstickstothem.Thelawisquitesimple:Ifsomethingworks,donot

changeit!Yourmainobjectiveshouldbetomakeconsistentprofitsusingtherulesoutlinedinasolid

layingmethod.

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30/30

I hope you have enjoyed not only reading these blog posts but also thatyou have managed to take a few notes here and there and also focus onwhat skills suit your type of betting the most while helping to eliminate

any errors you may make from time to time.

The important qualities needed to be successful in gambling may seemquite straight forward, and you know what! They are. Its just a caseof developing your own skills through practise and putting the qualityback into you gambling until these new found techniques become a habit.

Some of you may or may not have all of these qualities Ive mentionedabove within you. If you dont, do not panic! With time and patience, youtoo can master the art of successful gambling. It really is your choice.

The only thing that is standing between you and your ability to makemoney from gambling is your skills, which even after this chapter hasalready been improved:

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