Climate Change ProjectionsClimate Change Projectionsand Implicationand Implication

The River, the Bay and the Strait The River, the Bay and the Strait ForumForum

Up FrontUp Front This presentation is not about the This presentation is not about the

science of climate change.science of climate change. Assuming that the climate is already Assuming that the climate is already

changing and it will continue to do so changing and it will continue to do so even with mitigation.even with mitigation.

Projection not fact. Still requires Projection not fact. Still requires development of peer review process development of peer review process and adoption into policy.and adoption into policy.

ProblemsProblems Differing projections depending on model Differing projections depending on model

used.used. State Government guaranteeing flow rates State Government guaranteeing flow rates

and yield based on CSIRO projections.and yield based on CSIRO projections. 78% of catchment area does not 78% of catchment area does not

correspond to 78% of flow.correspond to 78% of flow. Removing 22% of a catchment area will Removing 22% of a catchment area will

have an impact, especially in addition to have an impact, especially in addition to reduced rainfall.reduced rainfall.

SimCLIM Family TreeSimCLIM Family Tree

VANDACLIM (island version)

BDCLIM (Bangladesh)

VANDACLIM (fictitious country)

OZCLIM (CSIRO)

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

CLIMPACTSCLIMPACTS

CHAMP (New Zealand)

CANCLIM (Canada)

SimCLIM

SriLankaCLIM

HOTSPOTS (NZ)

TopoCLIM

Hard-wired

Open-system

DryCLIM

COMMERCIAL VERSION

Source: CLIMsystemsSource: CLIMsystems

Climate ModellingClimate Modelling

Where computer programs make Where computer programs make projections about future climate projections about future climate using:using:1. Global circulation models (GCMs),1. Global circulation models (GCMs),

2. Emission scenarios, and2. Emission scenarios, and

3. Climatic sensitivity.3. Climatic sensitivity.

Global Circulation Models Global Circulation Models (GCMs)(GCMs)

Physically based, complex, 3D models.Physically based, complex, 3D models. Take into account as many factors as Take into account as many factors as

possible that could influence climate and possible that could influence climate and hence simulate the global climate system.hence simulate the global climate system.

Climate factors include: wind patterns and Climate factors include: wind patterns and ocean currents, cyclones, El Nino, ice-ocean currents, cyclones, El Nino, ice-sheets, clouds, ecosystems etc.sheets, clouds, ecosystems etc.

Source: CLIMsystemsSource: CLIMsystems

Emission ScenariosEmission Scenarios

Source: Source: http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc/emission/index.htm

2008 2020

2050 2100

Kandanga

Imbil

Kenilworth

Maleny

Kandanga

Imbil

Kenilworth

Maleny

Kandanga

Imbil

Kenilworth

Maleny

Kandanga

Imbil

Kenilworth

Maleny

Annual Average Change in Annual Average Change in Precipitation (mm):Precipitation (mm):

20082008 20202020 20502050 21002100

KandangaKandanga 1197.5 – 1197.5 – 1374.01374.0

1197.5 – 1197.5 – 1374.01374.0

1020.9 – 1020.9 – 1197.51197.5

844.3 – 844.3 – 1020.91020.9

ImbilImbil 1020.9 – 1020.9 – 1197.51197.5

1020.9 – 1020.9 – 1197.51197.5

1020.9 – 1020.9 – 1197.51197.5

844.3 – 844.3 – 1020.91020.9

KenilworthKenilworth 1197.5 – 1197.5 – 1374.01374.0

1197.5 – 1197.5 – 1374.01374.0

1020.9 – 1020.9 – 1197.51197.5

844.3 – 844.3 – 1020.91020.9

MalenyMaleny 1727.2 – 1727.2 – 1903.81903.8

1727.2 – 1727.2 – 1903.81903.8

1550.6 - 1550.6 - 1727.21727.2

1374.0 – 1374.0 – 1550.61550.6

Annual Average Change in Annual Average Change in Precipitation (mm/year):Precipitation (mm/year):

19901990 21002100

BundabergBundaberg 10601060 840840

MaryboroughMaryborough 11481148 920920

GympieGympie 11851185 955955

KingaroyKingaroy 790790 612612

GayndahGayndah 725725 550550

MontoMonto 702702 535535

2008 2020

2050 2100

Kandanga

Imbil

Kenilworth

Maleny

Kandanga

Imbil

Kenilworth

Maleny

Kandanga

Imbil

Kenilworth

Maleny

Kandanga

Imbil

Kenilworth

Maleny

Annual Average Maximum Annual Average Maximum Temperature Change (Temperature Change (00C)C)::

20082008 20202020 20502050 21002100

KandangaKandanga 24.0 – 24.0 – 25.325.3

25.3 – 25.3 – 26.626.6

26.6 – 26.6 – 27.927.9

31.7 – 31.7 – 33.033.0

ImbilImbil 24.0 – 24.0 – 25.325.3

25.3 – 25.3 – 26.626.6

26.6 – 26.6 – 27.927.9

31.7 – 31.7 – 33.033.0

KenilworthKenilworth 22.7 – 22.7 – 24.024.0

24.0 – 24.0 – 25.325.3

25.3 – 25.3 – 26.626.6

29.1 – 29.1 – 30.430.4

MalenyMaleny 21.5 – 21.5 – 22.722.7

22.7 – 22.7 – 24.024.0

24.0 – 24.0 – 25.325.3

29.1 – 29.1 – 30.430.4

Annual Average Maximum Annual Average Maximum Temperature Change:Temperature Change:

19901990 21002100

BundabergBundaberg 26.6326.63 29.71 - 33.3129.71 - 33.31

MaryboroughMaryborough 26.5026.50 29.49 - 32.9929.49 - 32.99

GympieGympie 25.7825.78 28.82 - 32.3828.82 - 32.38

KingaroyKingaroy 24.8224.82 28.21 - 32.1928.21 - 32.19

GayndahGayndah 27.5927.59 30.98 - 34.9530.98 - 34.95

MontoMonto 27.3327.33 30.71 - 34.6630.71 - 34.66

Number of days over Number of days over 353500CC/year/year

20082008 20302030 20502050 20752075 21002100

ImbilImbil 77 1212 2020 4545 7272

Kandanga, Cooroy, Kenilworth and Maleny – no temperature data recorded.

Number of days over Number of days over 404000CC//yearyear

20082008 20302030 20502050 20752075 21002100

ImbilImbil 0.10.1 0.70.7 1.71.7 66 1414

Kandanga, Cooroy, Kenilworth and Maleny – no temperature data recorded.

Number of days over Number of days over 353500CC//yearyear19901990 20202020 20502050 20752075 21002100

BundabergBundaberg 11 22 1010 5959 123123

MaryboroughMaryborough 33 55 3737 6666 114114

GympieGympie 1010 1414 3030 5959 9191

KingaroyKingaroy 44 77 2424 6565 108108

GayndahGayndah 2222 3333 7777 140140 193193

MontoMonto 1919 2828 6262 118118 164164

ConclusionsConclusions Impossible to guarantee water above or Impossible to guarantee water above or

below dam.below dam. Different software packages, models and Different software packages, models and

scenarios can give different projections.scenarios can give different projections. Higher temperatures mean higher levels of Higher temperatures mean higher levels of

evaporation and evapotranspiration.evaporation and evapotranspiration. Longer growing seasons for aquatic Longer growing seasons for aquatic

weeds.weeds. Higher demand for water. Higher demand for water.

Future ResearchFuture Research

Increase accuracy of rainfall projections to Increase accuracy of rainfall projections to local areas i.e. models & data used.local areas i.e. models & data used.

Flow rate projections for the Mary River to Flow rate projections for the Mary River to be determined.be determined.