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RAAF Air Power Conference
Engaging digital natives in matters of defence
Bernard Salt AM The Demographics Group
21 March 2018
Source: Based on UN Population Division data; World Bank World data; The Demographics Group; presentation template by SlidesCarnival
Global population 1900-2100 and global cereal production 1961-2014
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3
-
2
4
6
8
10
12
1900
19
04
1908
19
12
1916
19
20
1924
19
28
1932
19
36
1940
19
44
1948
19
52
1956
19
60
1964
19
68
1972
19
76
1980
19
84
1988
19
92
1996
20
00
2004
20
08
2012
20
16
2020
20
24
2028
20
32
2036
20
40
2044
20
48
2052
20
56
2060
20
64
2068
20
72
2076
20
80
2084
20
88
2092
20
96
2100
Glo
bal c
erea
l pro
duct
ion
(bill
ion
met
ric to
ns)
Wor
ld p
opul
atio
n (b
illio
ns)
Population (projected) Cereal (metric tons) Population (historic)
Food Energy Water Resources
Commodities
Space Security
Australia has what the rest of the world wants
Source: Based on International Monetary Fund,; The Demographics Group; presentation template by SlidesCarnival
Australia is a good place to do business
BIGGEST
1. United States 19.362
2. China 11.938
3. Japan 4.884
4. Germany 3.652
5. France 2.575
6. United Kingdom 2.565
7. India 2.439
8. Brazil 2.081
9. …
13. Australia 1.390
$UStn GDP 2017 $US GDP per capita 2017 (excludes <$300bn)
RICHEST
1. Switzerland 81,000
2. United States 59,000
3. Denmark 56,000
4. Australia 56,000
5. Singapore 54,000
6. Sweden 53,000
7. Netherlands 48,000
8. Austria 46,000
9. Hong Kong SAR 45,000
10. Canada 45,000
FASTEST RISING
1. Ireland 40%
2. China 36%
3. India 25%
4. Hong Kong SAR 23%
5. Israel 23%
6. Republic of Korea 22%
7. Philippines 17%
8. United States 16%
9. …
35. Australia -18%
GDP per capita 2012-17 growth % (excludes <$300bn)
Source: The Demographics Group; presentation template by SlidesCarnival
Wellington Christchurch
Strategic issues will reshape the Indian
Ocean Rim in the 21st Century … with
defence implications for Australia
Auckland
TEXAS
Berlin 13% London 36%
Paris 22%
Madrid 20%
Mumbai 1%
Shanghai 0% Tokyo 2%
Seoul 4%
Singapore 29%
Darwin 28% Cairns 29%
Alice Springs 29%
Auckland 39%
Wellington 27%
Adelaide 28% Perth 39% Buenos Aires 13%
Miami 39% San Francisco 36%
Pittsburgh 4%
Toronto 49% New York
29%
Johannesburg 6%
Moscow 13%
Vienna 32%
Brisbane 28%
Melbourne 36%
Dubai 83%
Stockholm 30%
Sydney 39% Canberra
28%
Australia has an absorbent “changeable” culture
Source: relevant local census data,The Demographics Group; presentation template by SlidesCarnival
Proportion of city population comprising international-born residents as measured by local censuses
8,000km
Australia’s future pathway seems clear
Percentage of population in selected cities with Asian or Indian heritage at the last relevant census
City Population % Population by Asian/Indian Heritage
Vancouver 2.3m 41%
San Francisco 4.7m 25%
Auckland 1.4m 23%
Sydney 5.0m 20%
Melbourne 4.4m 17%
Brisbane 2.3m 9%
Source: data based on relevant national statistical offices; The Demographics Group; presentation template by SlidesCarnival
Australia’s population mountain … Millennials are the bedrock
Source: Based on Australian Bureau of Statistics data; The Demographics Group; presentation template by SlidesCarnival
-
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000 1 4 7 10
13
16
19
22
25
28
31
34
37
40
43
46
49
52
55
58
61
64
67
70
73
76
79
82
85
88
91
94
97
Millennials Gen X Baby Boomers All Pre-Boomers Gen Z
20 40 60 80 100
5.0m 5.9m 5.7m 4.8m 2.3m
The ups and downs of Australian youth
Source: Based on Australian Bureau of Statistics data; The Demographics Group; presentation template by SlidesCarnival
1980 2000
-50,000
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
1978
19
80
1982
19
84
1986
19
88
1990
19
92
1994
19
96
1998
20
00
2002
20
04
2006
20
08
2010
20
12
2014
20
16
2018
20
20
2022
20
24
2026
20
28
2030
20
32
2034
20
36
2038
20
40
2042
20
44
2046
20
48
2050
20
52
2054
20
56
2058
Net growth in population aged 18-35 over 100 years in Australia
2020 2040
2016 1. No religion 6,933,700 2. Catholic 5,291,800 3. Anglican 3,101,200 4. Uniting Church 870,200 5. Islam 604,200 6. Buddhism 563,700 7. Presbyterian & Reformed 526,700 8. Eastern Orthodox 502,800 9. Hinduism 440,300 10 Baptist 345,100 11. Pentecostal 260,600 12. Lutheran 174,000
Religious affiliation in Australia between the 2011 and 2016 censuses
Change 2011-2016
+45% -3%
-16% -18% +27%
+7% -12% -11% +60%
-2% +9%
-31%
Source: Based on Australian Bureau of Statistics data; The Demographics Group; presentation template by SlidesCarnival
There has been a loss of faith in big institutions
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
Dec
-196
1 Ju
l-196
2 Fe
b-19
63
Sep
-196
3 A
pr-1
964
Nov
-196
4 Ju
n-19
65
Jan-
1966
A
ug-1
966
Mar
-196
7 O
ct-1
967
May
-196
8 D
ec-1
968
Jul-1
969
Feb-
1970
S
ep-1
970
Apr
-197
1 N
ov-1
971
Jun-
1972
Ja
n-19
73
Aug
-197
3 M
ar-1
974
Oct
-197
4 M
ay-1
975
Dec
-197
5 Ju
l-197
6 Fe
b-19
77
Sep
-197
7 A
pr-1
978
Nov
-197
8 Ju
n-19
79
Jan-
1980
A
ug-1
980
Mar
-198
1 O
ct-1
981
May
-198
2 D
ec-1
982
Jul-1
983
Feb-
1984
S
ep-1
984
Apr
-198
5 N
ov-1
985
Jun-
1986
Ja
n-19
87
Aug
-198
7 M
ar-1
988
Oct
-198
8 M
ay-1
989
Dec
-198
9 Ju
l-199
0 Fe
b-19
91
Sep
-199
1 A
pr-1
992
Nov
-199
2 Ju
n-19
93
Jan-
1994
A
ug-1
994
Mar
-199
5 O
ct-1
995
May
-199
6 D
ec-1
996
Jul-1
997
Feb-
1998
S
ep-1
998
Apr
-199
9 N
ov-1
999
Jun-
2000
Ja
n-20
01
Aug
-200
1 M
ar-2
002
Oct
-200
2 M
ay-2
003
Dec
-200
3 Ju
l-200
4 Fe
b-20
05
Sep
-200
5 A
pr-2
006
Nov
-200
6 Ju
n-20
07
Jan-
2008
A
ug-2
008
Mar
-200
9 O
ct-2
009
May
-201
0 D
ec-2
010
Jul-2
011
Feb-
2012
S
ep-2
012
Apr
-201
3 N
ov-2
013
Jun-
2014
Ja
n-20
15
Aug
-201
5 M
ar-2
016
Oct
-201
6 M
ay-2
017
Dec
-201
7
Years of prosperity have created a culture of aspiration
Per cent change in Australian GDP by quarter from December 1961 to December 2017
Source: Based on Australian Bureau of Statistics data; The Demographics Group; presentation template by SlidesCarnival
Fraser
1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s
Menzies Whitlam
GST GFC
Hawke
The way Australians live has changed … and so too have expectations
Source: House plans created by Sawmill Designs
1950s Today
I stopped eating smashed avocado … and now I own a castle
17 years Australia November quarter 2017 – up 3.6m (8.7m – 12.3m)
Nov 2000 – Nov 2017 (000)
Jobs grown: 3,873 Jobs contracted: 293 Net jobs added: 3,579
Education & Training
Admin & Support
Mining
Financial & Insurance
Public Admin & Safety
Wholesale Trade
Rental/Hiring & Real Estate
Info Media & Telecoms
Manufacturing
Agriculture/Forestry & Fishing
Construction Arts & Recreation
Electricity/Gas/ Water & Waste
Transport/ Postal/
Warehouse
Healthcare & Social Assistance
Retail Trade Accom. & Food Other
Services
Professional/ Scientific/
Tech.
-200
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
Source: Based on Australian Bureau of Statistics data; The Demographics Group; presentation template by SlidesCarnival
Knowledge workers are driving Australian prosperity
Ups and downs of the Australian job stakes
Source: Based on Australian Bureau of Statistics data; The Demographics Group; presentation template by SlidesCarnival
Photographic Developer & Printer
2001: 5,000 2011: 2,000 2016: 1,000
Word Processing Operator
2001: 14,000 2011: 9,000 2016: 6,000
Sewing Machinist
2001: 18,000 2011: 11,000 2016: 8,000
Barista
2001: Not defined 2006: 8,000 2011: 22,000 2016: 37,000
Truck Driver
2001: 105,000 2011: 135,000 2016: 137,000
Management Consultant
2001: 30,000 2011: 41,000 2016: 55,000
Job numbers between selected censuses
Defence work spans all generations
Age profile of the Defence industry between the 2011 and 2016 Censuses
2011: 73,400
Gen Z Gen Y Gen X Baby Boomers
Source: Based on Australian Bureau of Statistics data; The Demographics Group; presentation template by SlidesCarnival
2016: 75,500 Change: 2,100 or -3% Aged 50+: 19%
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65+
Source: Based on Australian Bureau of Statistics data; The Demographics Group; presentation template by SlidesCarnival
• 5.9m now, 6.5m 2025
• Never experienced a recession
• Most educated
• Ethnically diverse
• Engage with the digital community
• Famously changeable
www.thedemographicsgroup.com.au
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