benchmarking options for the effective achievement of the ...€¦ · benchmarking options, iaee...

Benchmarking options, IAEE 2017, 5.9.2017, Slide 1

IAEE 2017

Authors: Lukas Liebmann, Christoph Zehetner, Gustav Resch

Energy Economics Group, Vienna University of Technology

Contact:

Web: http://eeg.tuwien.ac.at

Email: [email protected]

Benchmarking options for the effective

achievement of the renewable energy

target of the EU energy strategy by 2030

http://eeg.tuwien.ac.at/

mailto:[email protected]


Research Questions

(1) What are benchmark options needed for?

(2) What is the target for the share of renewable energies in the final energy

consumption of different benchmark options for individual EU Member States to

ensure the achievement of the 27% target of the EU?

(3) What possible bandwidths for the share of renewable energies in gross energy

consumption are given by the different benchmark options?

(4) What is the expected net increase in RES deployment between 2020 and 2030?

Introduction


2030 Climate & energy framework

Political framework

27% to 30% increase in energy efficiency

At least 27% RES share in gross final energy consumption

At least 27% RES share in gross final energy consumption


Framing the obstacles

• According to current scenarios (PRIMES Reference 2016) the EU would reach a

renewable share of 24.3% by 2030. This result shows that the EU would not meet

the set target for 2030.

• There are barriers to achieve the target of at least 27% in a “business as usual"

scenario:

• Missing from cost-effectiveness

• Imperfect markets

• Update of the legal framework

• Lack of citizen participation

Political framework


Mechanism to close the „ambition gap“

Political framework


Pledging and Compensation Mechanisms - Benchmarks Needs?

• Benchmarks would enable the European Commission to provide "guidance on

sufficiently ambitious commitments by EU Member States and to enable them to

assess the contribution that individual Member States need to achieve the EU

objective“

• Benchmarks would

• provide an indicator for Member States for a 'fair contribution' to the overall

EU objective

• In order to implement a gaps-filling mechanism and associated financial

payments from Member States in case of not achieving the overall EU target

• Benchmarking options are possible on the basis of different indicators

Political framework


Benchmark according to the logic of the RD 2020

50% of the necessary effort is distributed globally and 50% by means of GDP

weighting

Allocation method with moderate differences between Member States

The GDP-based approach does not always lead to the expected results

Results

27%

41%

20%

21% 20%

19%

25%

39%

30%

25%27%

44%

30%

26%

19%

24%24%

29%

18%

47%

18%

21%20%

38%

29%

56%

31%

20%23%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

EU 2

8

AT

BE

BG CY

CZ

DE

DK EE EL ES FI FR HR

HU IE IT LT LU LV MT

NL PL

PT

RO SE SI SK UKEU

202

0 R

ES t

arge

ts p

er

cou

ntr

y an

d t

he

ad

dit

ion

al

RES

sh

are

ne

ed

ed

to m

ee

t 203

0 ta

rge

t (R

ED 2

020

calc

ula

tio

n a

pp

roac

h)

RD2020 approach 2020 targets 2015 RES shares


* Vorläufige Ergebnisse aus IMPACT ASSESSMENT SWD(2016) 418 final

Benchmark based on the national potential for renewable energies

Bandwidths result from European least-cost scenarios – The min-max spread is based

on a sensitivity analysis of nonfinancial barriers, energy consumption and the possible

promotion of biofuels

High burden for economically weaker countries

27%

45%

18%

28%

18% 18%

25%

38% 39%

28% 27%

46%

34%

39%

19%

24% 25%

36%

11%

48%

18% 19%

23%

44%

34%

55%

33%

19% 19%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

EU 2

8

AT

BE

BG CY

CZ

DE



NL PL

PT

RO SE SI SK UKEU

202

0 R

ES t

arge

ts p

er

cou

ntr

y an

d t

he

ad

dit

ion

al

RES

sh

are

ne

ed

ed

to m

ee

t 203

0 ta

rge

t (R

ED 2

020

calc

ula

tio

n a

pp

roac

h)

RES Potential max RES Potential min 2020 targets 2015 RES shares

Results


The “alternative approach” described in the Impact Assessment

The “alternative approach” described in the Impact Assessment implicitly takes the potential

availability of renewables resources into consideration by including the size of the country as

a determining parameter in addition to GDP and equal sharing (“flat rate”).

More precisely, these impact factors are weighted differently in the RES target allocation –

i.e. the allocation is based on 50% flat-rate, 25% GDP and 25% land area per capita.

-0,3%

-1,0%

3,7%

0,9%

0,4%

-1,0%-1,2%

4,6%

1,7%

0,6%

4,6%

-0,3%

2,5%

1,4%

0,2%

-0,6%

4,3%

-1,1%

5,1%

-2,0%

-1,3%

0,9% 0,8%

2,9%

3,6%

0,6% 0,8%

-1,2%

-3%

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

AT BE BG CY CZ DE DK EE EL ES FI FR HR HU IE IT LT LU LV MT NL PL PT RO SE SI SK UK

De

viat

ion

s o

f Are

a (T

ota

l) b

en

chm

ark

com

par

ed

to

RD

2020

ap

pro

ach

Results


Needed net deployment of RES between 2020 and 2030

The required increase in net additional RES deployment is significantly higher if we assume an

RES target of 30% instead of 27%. However, even with a 30% RES target, this would result in

lower or comparable net renewables increase in 2020-2030 compared to 2010-2020 for most

Member States.

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

AT

BE

BG CY

CZ

DE



NL PL

PT

RO SE SI SK UK

Ne

ed

ed

ne

t de

plo

yme

nt o

f RES

to m

ee

t th

e 2

030

targ

et a

cco

rdin

g th

e 2

020

logi

c fo

r 27

% a

nd

30%

e

xpre

sse

d in

mto

e

2020 logic (30%) 2020 logic (27%) Net increase 2005-2015 Net increase 2010-2020

Results


Needed net deployment of RES between 2020 and 2030 relative to

the GFEC of 2015

The required increase in net additional RES deployment expressed in RES per gross final

energy consumption (GFEC) of 2015

-0,1

-0,1

0,0

0,1

0,1

0,2

EU 2

8

AT

BE

BG CY

CZ

DE



NL PL

PT

RO SE SI SK UK

Ne

ed

ed

ne

t de

plo

yme

nt o

f RES

to m

ee

t th

e 2

030

targ

et a

cco

rdin

g th

e 2

020

logi

c fo

r 27

% a

nd

30%

e

xpre

sse

d in

mto

e R

ES p

er m

toe

GFE

C o

f 201

5

2020 logic (30%) 2020 logic (27%) Net increase 2005-2015 Net increase 2010-2020

Results


• Benchmarks can guide the Member States through the pledging process and form

the basis for gap-filling mechanism

• A “fair and efficient" approach to ensure political feasibility (depending on the

gap between the benchmarks of the Member States)

• Contrary benchmarks in a GDP and a potential-based benchmarking approach

deliver a valid argument for regional cooperation

• Assuming a 30% energy efficiency target, an EU RES-target of 30% would result in

lower or comparable net renewables increase in 2020-2030 compared to the 2010-

2020 effort for most Member States

Conclusions


Lukas Liebmann

E-Mail: [email protected] Telefon: +43-1-58801-370 355

Energy Economics Group (EEG), Vienna University of Technology

Gußhausstraße 25-29/E370-3, A-1040 Vienna, Austria

http://eeg.tuwien.ac.at

Thank you for your attention!

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