Advances in the

Collection and Analysis of Large Volumes of Information on the nuclear fuel cycle from disparate sources as a verification tool

Ben Wilson, Ahmed El Gebaly, Regine Schuler, Paul Marc Schot, Matt Ferguson

International Atomic Energy Agency, Department of Safeguards2014-10-22

Symposium on International SafeguardsLinking Strategy, Implementation and People

20-24 October 2014, IAEA HQ Vienna

OBE

JCTI

VESO

URC

ESAC

TIVI

TIES

WHA

T

CC

NM accountancy

BB

Information analysis

AAUndeclared Material

Undeclared Facility

Undeclared Activity

Undeclared Material

Declared Facility

Undeclared Activity

Declared Material

Declared Facility

Undeclared Activity

DiversionMisuseClandestine

Generic Objectives

State Info

OPS Info

State Info

OPS Info

OS Info incl. Trade, Ind.

OS Info incl. Trade, Industry

Partner State Info

OPS Info

Information analysis

Complementary Access

Other applicable measures

Field activities Field activities

DIV DIV

Need for Information

IAEA seeks to provide credible assurance that States are fulfilling their SG obligations.

States declarations are verified for correctness and completeness.

To achieve this end: declarations are analyzed, in-field activities are planned and performed, SG relevant information collected, Analysis of all information undertaken.

Need to diversify information

Increase the Departments ability to detect undeclared material and activities.

Ensure coverage of all available relevant information.

Increase the accuracy of relevant information Information collected from diverse sources Ensure the objectivity and independence of

analysis and conclusions.

Multiple & Diverse Information Sources

Available data sources

IAEA sought diverse source types. Identified several sources per information type. Studied the data format per source. Designed procedures to help analyst deal with

these different sources. Identified ways and methods to handle

information from these sources.

IAEA OPEN SOURCES

Collected by other departments of the IAEA through their activities .

Materials and technical equipment provided to Member States through TC Projects.

Reports of the travel trips of IAEA professionals to facilities in Member States.

Any open source does not fall under any of the other

categories.

Publications originating from scientific organizations on the progress of their research activities

Publications originating from scientific or industrial organizations on the progress of their commercial related

research activities.

These are data derived from the official national customs declarations of

exported goods.

Companies directories describing their production capabilities .

Information on the State of interest, received from their partner States.

Results of the SGOPs in-fields activities

Cross Dep.

Other OS

Travel Report EXIM

TC Ind. Cap.

SGOPs Patent

Partner State R&D

State

MiningConversionEnrichmentFuel FabricationReactorReprocessingetc

Categorization Anal ysis

Data Sources

Information received

through the State either

through declarations

or using other

channels.

Challenges faced

Sources for each information type per State Data categorization Data sets sizes Structuring information Information management and collation

Data CategorizationThe Physical Model is used to achieve this end

Data categorizationAllows analyst to collate data from different sources and types and enables the utilization of advanced analytical methods.

Data Size

Data sets sizesDue to the advances in collection, data sizes are increasing rapidly every day.

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Structuring Information

Property matches (names, addresses,

emails)

Structuring informationTo enable advanced and new methods of analysis structuring data is essential.

Information Management and Collations

Information management and collationAllows analysts to handle large data sets, provides a platform to deploy advanced analytical methods, establishes an environment for information collation from different sources.

Future development

Continuously enhancing the information management and analysis platform.

Covering more HS code for EXIM data analysis. Enhancing data collection for industrial

capabilities surveys. Developing a capability to identify, collect and

analyze open source transaction data.

Future development

Enhancing data collection for uncategorized open sources.

Developing a capability to structure flat text data sources.

Enhancing the capability to categorize all data and information available to the IAEA.

Conclusions

Diversifying sources is essential to timely detection of undeclared use of nuclear materials and activities.

Several source types are identified and in use. IAEA continuously seeking better information

coverage. IAEA seeking continued assurance of objectively

and reliability of declarations evaluation.