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Informal paper 13

ECONOMIC COMMISSION FOR EUROPE COMMITTEE ON ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY Working Group on Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Sixth session Geneva, 12–14 June 2006 Item 5 f the provisional agenda

SUPPORT TO THE FOURTH PAN-EUROPEAN ASSESSMENT REPORT ON THE STATE OF THE ENVIRONMENT

Annex

Belgrade 2007 report Outline April-May 2006

Version 15/05/06 Draft in progress

May, 2006

Project manager: Adriana Gheorghe

David Stanners European Environment Agency

Contents

1. Overview of structure of the EEA Belgrade 2007 report ........................ 3

1.1. Overview of chapters and sections.......................................................................3 1.2. Overview of content of sections............................................................................4

2. Chapter 1: Setting the Scene .................................................................... 7

2.1. Section 1.1: Background and Introduction ........................................................7 2.2. Section 1.2: Socio-Economic developments in Europe......................................8 2.3. Section 1.3: Perspectives on the environment in EECCA ..................................9 2.4. Section 1.4: Towards Sustainability....................................................................10 2.5. Section 1.5: Partnerships and Policy..................................................................11

3. Chapter 2: Environment and health and the quality of life .................. 13

3.1. Section 2.1: Introduction - Environment and health (10-12 p.).........................13 3.2. Section 2.2: Air Quality in EEA and EECCA region (9-12 pages).....................15 3.3. Section 2.3: Water stress (14-20 pages) .............................................................17 3.4. Section 2.4: Chemicals/hazardous substances (10-12 pages).........................19

4. Chapter 3: Climate change...................................................................... 23

5. Chapter 4: Biodiversity............................................................................ 26

6. Chapter 5: Marine and coastal environment ......................................... 31

7. Chapter 6: Sustainable Consumption & Production and Waste ......... 36

8. Chapter 7: Sector integration.................................................................. 41

8.1. Section 7.1 Energy (ca 10 pages) ........................................................................41 8.2. Section 7.2: Transport (8-10 pages) ....................................................................44 8.3. Section 7.3: Agriculture (ca 10 pages)................................................................46

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1. Overview of structure of the EEA Belgrade 2007 report

1.1. Overview of chapters and sections

Title Pages Chapter 1. Setting the scene • Section 1.1: Background and Introduction • Section 1.2: Socio-Economic developments in Europe • Section 1.3: Perspectives on the environment in EECCA • Section 1.4: Towards Sustainable Consumption and Production • Section 1.5: Partnerships and Policy

30

Chapter 2: Environment and health and the quality of life • Section 2.1: Introduction - Environment and health (10-12 pages) • Section 2.2 Air Quality in EEA and EECCA region (9-12 pages) • Section 2.3: Water stress (14-20 pages) • Section 2.4: Chemicals/hazardous substances (10-12 pages)

43-56

Chapter 3: Climate change • Section 3.1: Key messages – introduction (1 page) • Section 3.2: Climate change and its impacts (4-5 pages) • Section 3.3: Greenhouse gas emissions trends and projections (including

progress towards targets) (4-5 pages) • Section 3.4: Actions to minimise impacts of climate change (Policy ac-

tions) (4-5 pages) • Section 3.5: Interaction between climate change and ozone depletion (1

page)

14-17

Chapter 4: Biodiversity • Section 4.1: Key messages – introduction (1 page) • Section 4.2: An integrated approach to halting biodiv. decline by 2010 (1

page) • Section 4.3: Species diversity (4-5 pages) • Section 4.4: Ecosystem diversity (4 pages) • Section 4.5: Ecological Networks (3 pages) • Section 4.6: Sustainable use (8 pages) • Section 4.7: Administration, participation and awareness (3 pages)

24-25

Chapter 5: Marine and coastal environment • Section 5.1: Key messages – introduction (1.5 pages) • Section 5.2 :Marine and coastal ecosystems in Europe, Caucasus and Cen-

tral Asia: A regional overview (state and trends) (16.5 pages) • Section 5.3: Eastern European, Caucasus and Central Asia regional seas:

Specific key environmental impacts (4 pages) • Section 5.4: Summary, conclusions and recommendations (2 pages)

25

Chapter 6: Sustainable Consumption & Production and Waste • Section 6.1: Key messages – introduction (1 page) • Section 6.2 Production and resource use • Section 6.3: Consumption • Section 6.4: Waste prevention and management

~25

Chapter 7: Sector integration • Section 7.0: Key messages – introduction (1 page) • Section 7.1: Energy (ca 10 pages) • Section 7.2: Transport (8-10 pages)

30-40

• Section 7.3: Agriculture (ca 10 pages) • Section 7.4: Total 200-

250

1.2. Overview of content of sections

Title Pages Chapter 1: Setting the scene (~30 pages) Section 1.1: Background and Introduction • Key messages – introduction (1. page) • Mandate and Purpose (1 page) • Report Structure and Audience (1-2 pages) • Data and Indicators (1 page)

4-5

Section 1.2: Socio-Economic developments in Europe • Key messages – introduction (1. page) • Economic developments (2 pages) • Social developments (2 pages) • Poverty (1 page) • Migration (1 page)

7

Section 1.3: Perspectives on the environment in EECCA • Key messages – introduction (1. page) • sections missing

Section 1.4: Towards Sustainable Consumption and Production • Key messages – introduction (1. page) • Consumption (1 page) • Production (1 page) • Waste? (1 page)

3

Section 1.5: Partnerships and Policy • Key messages – introduction (1. page) • Partnerships (1 page) • Europe and the Global Environment – GEO4 (2 pages) • The EECCA Strategy Review (2 pages) • Other Regional Reports (1 page) • Implementation (1 page)

8

Chapter 2: Environment and health and the quality of life (43-56pages) Section 2.1: Introduction - Environment and health • Key messages (1 page) • Environmental change and human health/well-being (3-3.5 pages) • Multi-causality of environmental impacts on human health and challenges

in E&H assessments (2.5 - 3 pages) • Human exposure and health effects of environmental hazards (3-4 pages) • Burden of disease attributable to environmental factors (1-1.5 pages) • Policy context – links between E&H recognized in policy documents (0.5

page)

10-12

Section 2.2: Air Quality • Key messages – introduction (0.5-1 page) • Introduction – socio-economic and legal framework (1.5-2 pages) • Atmospheric emissions (1.5-2 pages) • Ambient Air Quality (status and its development)(2-2.5 pages) • Impact of air pollution (1.5 -2 page) • Air quality prospects (responses)(2-2.5 page)

9-12

Section 2.3: Water stress • Key messages – introduction (1 page)

14-20

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• Water resources and use (3-4 pages) • Drinking water problems (2-3 pages) • Climate impacts on water (2-3 pages) • Floods (1-2 pages) • Pollution and water quality (3-5 pages) • Ecological quality (river regulation and Europe’s old lakes) (2 pages) Section 2.4: Chemicals/hazardous substances • Introduction and key messages (1 page) • Production and use (Drivers) (1 page) • Emissions and releases of hazardous substances (Pressures) (2p) • State and environment and health impacts (3 pages) • Responses (1-2 pages) • Case studies (ca. 2-3 pages, partly distributed in textboxes and graphs) • Outlook (1 page)

10-12

Chapter 3: Climate change (14-17 pages) Section 3.1: Key messages – introduction 1 Section 3.2: Climate change and its impacts 4-5 Section 3.3: Greenhouse gas emissions trends and projections (including pro-gress towards targets)

4-5

Section 3.4: Actions to minimise impacts of climate change (Policy actions) 4-5 Section 3.5: Interaction between climate change and ozone depletion 1 Chapter 4: Biodiversity (24-25 pages) 24-25 Section 4.1: Key messages – introduction 1 Section 4.2: An integrated approach to halting biodiv. decline by 2010 1 Section 4.3: Species diversity (4-5 pages) General trends (2 pages) Invasive alien species (3 pages)

4-5

Section 4.4: Ecosystem diversity General trends (2 pages) Pressures (2 pages)

4

Section 4.5: Ecological Networks • Pan-European Ecological Network (1 page) • EMERALD (1 page) • Natura2000 (1 page)

3

Section 4.6: Sustainable use • Ecosystem goods and services (1 page) • Forestry (3 pages) • Agriculture (3 pages) • Tourism (1 page)

8

Section 4.7: Administration, participation and awareness • Monitoring (1 page) • Public awareness action plans (1 page) • Policy challenges (1 page)

3

Chapter 5: Marine and coastal environment (25 pages) Section 5.1: Key messages – introduction (1.5 pages) 1.5 Section 5.2 :Marine and coastal ecosystems in Europe, Caucasus and Central Asia: A regional overview (state and trends) • Eutrophication (3 pages) • Fisheries, including aquaculture production/impacts (3 pages) • Invasive alien species (1.5 pages) • Climate change (2 pages) • Pollution from radionuclides (1.5 pages) • Pollution from hazardous substances (1.5 pages) • Coastal zone use (4 pages)

16.5

• Oil pollution/exploration (1 page) • Shipping (1 page) Section 5.3: Eastern European, Caucasus and Central Asia regional seas: Spe-cific key environmental impacts Barents Sea profile Black Sea profile Caspian Sea profile Russian Arctic Seas profile

4

Section 5.4: Summary, conclusions and recommendations 2 Chapter 6: Sustainable Consumption & Production and Waste (25 pages) Section 6.1: Key messages – introduction 2 Section 6.2 Production and resource use Trend in material consumption and environmental impact Decoupling of resource use from economic growth, and resource productivity

< 10

Section 6.3: Consumption General Trends and Characteristics of Consumption Footprint of European consumption Selected Consumption areas and their environmental impacts Options for more sustainable consumption

< 10

Section 6.4: Waste prevention and management • General trends of waste generation in the EU, the EECCA countries and

the Balkans • Hazardous waste problems in EECCA countries and the Balkans • Waste prevention is insufficient; landfilling is still dominant • Waste as a resource • Existing and new tools supporting political decisions on waste manage-

ment

< 10

Chapter 7: Sector integration (30 pages) Section 7.0: Key messages – introduction 1 Section 7.1: Energy • Key message and introduction (1 page) • Energy consumption (level of consumption, fuel mix, efficiency) (3 pages) • Environmental impacts of energy production and consumption (3 pages) • Policy prospect (3 pages)

10

Section 7.2: Transport • Key message and introduction (1 page) • Transport growth (1-2 pages) • Environmental impacts of transport (2-3 pages) • Policy prospect (3 pages)

8-10

Section 7.3: Agriculture • Key message and introduction (1 page) • Agricultural trends and related environmental pressures (3 pages) • Environmental impacts of agriculture (3 pages) • Policy responses (3 pages)

10

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2. Chapter 1: Setting the Scene

Chapter 1: Setting the Scene (around 30 pages?) • Section 1.1: Background and Introduction • Section 1.2: Socio-Economic developments in Europe • Section 1.3: Perspectives on the environment in EECCA • Section 1.4: Towards Sustainable Consumption and Production • Section 1.5: Partnerships and Policy

2.1. Section 1.1: Background and Introduction

1. Key messages – introduction (1. page) To follow when outline is agreed

2. Mandate and Purpose (1 page) Main storyline – The Dobris process (EfE) and the SOER series. Mandate from environment ministers and key priorities – policy-oriented, benchmarking. An ever-expanding Europe; EU25+, and new emphasis on EECCA regions. Improving data, improving cooperation, emerg-ing issues. Timeframe – what has happened since Kiev, but also, what has happened since Do-bris? Looking back; looking forward – what is coming up in 2007 and beyond ? • Environment in Europe (emphasise priority issues eg biodiv, climate, SCP …) • The EfE Process – and Belgrade objectives • Shape of Europe – a growing Europe • New borders, new neighbours, marine and Arctic • Key political developments: enlargement and Neighbourhood Policy • Key environmental policy developments, eg Kyoto (EU and Russia), CBD, CSD, EECCA

Strategy, EUSDS and/or 6EAP Review; Lisbon? • Future prospects Information sources: • Kiev report as possible model • David Stanners’ presentation on content • Other papers and mandate from Circa • SOER2005

3. Report Structure and Audience (1-2 pages) Main storyline – explanation of structure –priorities and approach taken.[NB the title is from Kiev, but that did not actually discuss audience much. Is this important?]Short description of content, but no replication of actual content. • Chapter 2 structure and content • Chapter 3 structure and content • Etc Information sources: • Report outline and content Potential overlap to other chapters/sections • Brief reference to other chapters in turn

4 Data and Indicators (1 page) Main storyline – Improving data quality and data coverage. Renewed emphasis on EECCA countries. Types of data and new activities (NB prefigures partnership approach – mention other activities, but only briefly here). Use of indicators and case studies, and wider approach to data provision and presentation. • Data quality – issues and methods • Context – more countries, newly emerging issues • New data and new activities? Information sources: • Report outline and content

Potential overlap to other chapters/sections • Brief reference to other chapters in turn

NB Kiev intro also had ‘supporting activities’ and ‘other reports’ – but most if not all of this now goes into Section 1.5. Or do we want to address EEA’s own and related activities here?

2.2. Section 1.2: Socio-Economic developments in Europe


2. Economic developments (2 pages) Main storyline – Living together in an expanding Europe. EU15/EEA generally a period of slug-gish economic growth. Further east, still in the aftermath of the breakup of the Soviet bloc. CEE countries generally experiencing rapid growth in recent years – some have now got back to or exceeded their GDP of 1989. But some living beyond their means. EECCA countries still strug-gling in many cases, especially those that have experienced prolonged political or social up-heaval. Also a mixed picture – in all groupings, some are doing better than others. • Indicators:

o GPD per capita and/or PPP contrasting EU15, EU10, EECCA o Import and export figures

• Living together – flows of energy and materials, people • Imports and exports – some living well beyond their means • Focus on EECCA data –wealth, output, consumption, trade • Types of economy – west moving to service economy, some EECCA in danger of becoming

stuck in extractive industry? • Agriculture and subsistence Information sources: • OECD and World Bank data • OECD quality of life statistics • Ljubov? Potential overlap to other chapters/sections • Should set the scene for later sections (Poverty, migration, tourism, material flows, etc) • SCP • Subsistence agriculture • Energy

3. Social developments (2 pages) Main storyline – Progress is mixed. On average people are getting wealthier and living longer, etc, but others are left behind. Some in eastern Europe, etc becoming very rich, but poverty also an issue.. • Indicators:

o Average household incomes o Life expectancy o Access to basic services o Wellbeing index (?link to GEO4)

• Health and life expectancy • Access to education and other services • Access to services (eg electricity and piped water, sanitation) Information sources: • OECD and World Bank data • Ljubov? • Other specific studies – to add Potential overlap to other chapters/sections • Energy • Water • Other environmental services

4 Poverty (1 page) Main storyline – Access to work and wealth. Subsistence agriculture. Environmental causes and

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consequences of poverty … • Indicators:

o Percentage of population/children in poverty o Percentage of population in subsistence agriculture

• Work and labour • Subsistence agriculture and the environment • Environmental degradation Information sources: • Basic indicators of distributional effects • World Bank, etc • Specific studies – to add Potential overlap to other chapters/sections • Links to agriculture and soil • Other aspects of state of environment

5 Migration (1 page) Main storyline – Not only materials are moving; indicators of inflows and outflows by country. Many in search of work – within EU25 post-enlargement, but also within and from EECCA. NB also emigration from Europe. Consequences – positive and negative. • Indicators:

o Population density/proportion of population in urban areas o Migration trends

• Rural/urban – urbanisation • Migration across Europe • Emigration Information sources: • To add

2.3. Section 1.3: Perspectives on the environment in EECCA


2. To follow – have requested material available which will determine content (n pages) Main storyline – We have elements of an ‘objective’ picture from social, economic and environ-mental indicators, case studies, etc, but how is the situation perceived by key commentators? How have things changed for the better or the worse? What is now on the horizon, and how will this impact on future prospects? Information sources: • Potential overlap to other chapters/sections • Links to outlooks/scenarios in other work?

3. Title (1 page) Main storyline – Sub-issues in form of bullet points. • Information sources: • Potential overlap to other chapters/sections •

4 Title (1 page) Main storyline – Information sources:

• Potential overlap to other chapters/sections •

5 Title (1 page) Main storyline – Information sources: • Potential overlap to other chapters/sections •

2.4. Section 1.4: Towards Sustainability

1. Key messages – introduction (1. page) To follow when outline is agreed. Especially here would be important to distinguish from Chap-ter 6.

2. Consumption (1 page) Main storyline – The very big picture (above Lars’ Chapter 6 work to contextualise). [NB impor-tant to agree clear boundary – contextualise Ch6, not steal its thunder] Generally wealth is in-creasing, but unevenly. Leads to growing consumption of energy and materials, and in some places to overconsumption while others still lack basic food and water, goods and services Be-haviour – changes taking place. • Indicators:

o Goods consumed (weight or value) per unit GDP? o Global footprint trend? o Sustainability index?

• Consumption • Unsustainable footprint of most of EU [box or case study] • Decoupling – any signs of changes in behaviour (possible case study approach) Information sources: • ESI work from Yale • Other footprint or TMR studies Potential overlap to other chapters/sections • Chapter 6 Sustainable consumption & production and waste • Swedish and ENEP ROE work …

3. Production (1 page) Main storyline – Basic patterns – raw materials, energy, goods. Production and flows –rapid growth in some countries in east using old and inefficient technology – an opportunity to im-prove. NB not just a tidal flow from east to west of materials and energy; also of manufactured goods from west to east. How to decouple resources and TMR from GDP growth? • Indicators

o Trends in industrial sectors in EU15, EU10 and EECCA • Changing patterns of economic activity Information sources: • World Bank and OECD, etc • Ljubov data • Case reports? Potential overlap to other chapters/sections • Trade and material flows • Chapter 6 Sustainable consumption & production and waste • Swedish and ENEP ROE work …

4 Waste? (1 page) Main storyline – Waste growth reflecting consumption. Increasing problems of disposal eg land-fill; some recycling • Reflecting highlights of Chapter 6

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Information sources: • Potential overlap to other chapters/sections •

2.5. Section 1.5: Partnerships and Policy


2. Partnerships (1 page) Main storyline – Kiev ministerial declaration called on EEA specifically to build new partner-ships for Belgrade. Requirements of EfE, WSD, etc requires cooperation, also load sharing for efficiency and effectiveness. Belgrade is a conference for deliverables and assessment of pro-gress. Matching environmental with social and economic, in terms of assessments and policy delivery. The range of actors and reports, and the place of SOER in this. • Partnerships • Reports just out • Reports upcoming • A map of how they fit together • Highlighting key reports • The big picture • Assessment of progress Information sources: • Partnerships – cf DES slide • Relevant reports and drafts as available Potential overlap to other chapters/sections • No – gathering and assembling key messages from elsewhere is key

3. Europe and the Global Environment – GEO4 (2 pages) Main storyline – Wealth and poverty. Some key trends where we follow other regions – urbani-sation and sprawl, land degradation, growing consumption, threat of climate change. Also good news stories, eg some threats being tackled. Long range transboundary issues, shared sinks, seas. • Key impacts from above • Transboundary and neighbourhood challenges • Marine case study? • Possible case study? Information sources: • GEO4 draft Potential overlap to other chapters/sections • Some in various areas – need to ensure key messages are complementary

4 The EECCA Strategy Review (2 pages) Main storyline – TBD Information sources: • Coordination with Task Force Potential overlap to other chapters/sections •

5 Other Regional Reports (1 page) Main storyline – TBD: Caspian, Carpathians, Balkans and CCA (UNDP), Baltic, etc • Short summary on each selected report (incl case studies) Information sources: • Relevant reports or drafts

Potential overlap to other chapters/sections • Some in various areas – need to ensure key messages are complementary • Potentially good opportunities for illustrative case studies to link to key issues

6 Implementation (1 page) Main storyline – Do we have the political, economic or administrative structures to make things more sustainable? Probably not … • Political initiatives – how they fit together • Where are the gaps? • Do all countries have the resources/political will to achieve SD? • Conflicting priorities • And is there a unique model (maybe good case studies/good practice examples) • EU norms and wider Europe (poss case study from EU10 eg WFD?) • How to change things, eg water – public good, private enterprise or PPP? Information sources: • Environmental Management in EECCA (OECD 2005) Potential overlap to other chapters/sections •

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3. Chapter 2: Environment and health and the quality of life

Chapter 2 is composed of four sections • Section 2.1: Introduction - Environment and health (10-12 pages) • Section 2.2 Air Quality in EEA and EECCA region (9-12 pages) • Section 2.3: Water stress (14-20 pages) • Section 2.4: Chemicals/hazardous substances (10-12 pages)

3.1. Section 2.1: Introduction - Environment and health (10-12 p.)

1. Key messages (1 page) Significance of the environment for human health and well-being increasingly recognized. Envi-ronmental changes due to human activity and disturbance of the ecosystem services exert direct and indirect impacts on humans. Interactions between environment and health - complex and interlinked, characterised by multicausality with different strength of association, different time lags and spatial ‘displacement’ between environmental stressor/impacts, and many modifying forces. Challenges in establishing causal links and quantifying health effects. ‘Traditional’ and ‘modern’ EH hazards; the latter often resulting from unsustainable production and consumption patterns. Outdoor and indoor air pollution, water contamination, noise, haz-ardous chemicals and food contamination- major ‘direct’ causes of environmentally related health problems. Environmental factors are known or suspected contributors to respiratory and cardiovascular diseases, some types of cancer, neurological effects, asthma and allergies, re-productive and developmental disorders. The magnitude of adverse impacts influenced by the exposure and vulnerability to stressors. Inequalities in exposure and vulnerability may result in higher risk in certain populations /locations. Estimates of burden of disease attributable to environmental factors– concept of DALYs, and the recent estimates for the European region. Challenges in assessing E&H interactions; complexity and uncertainty in establishing E&H links; use of precautionary principle. Coverage of environmental issues in the chapter - not exhaustive; occupational, as well as life-style related risk factors (smoking, exposure to ETS, diet, alcohol, physical activity, etc) beyond the scope, though public health relevant. Public concerns and the current knowledge of E&H associations call for preventive and protec-tive strategies. The EU E&H Action Plan and the Budapest process (CEHAPE and E&H infor-mation system) address EH problems, focusing on children. Referral to the Millennium Assess-ment. Environmental influences on health recognized in the 6th EAP and the EECCA strategy - air, water, and hazardous chemicals specified in the context of human health in these policy docu-ments; discussed in details in the following sub-chapters.

2. Environmental change and human health/well-being (3-3.5 pages) Main storyline. Environmental integrity and maintenance of ecosystem services is crucial for human health and well-being. Human activity contributes to a range of interdependent environ-mental changes. Human health and well-being may be affected both directly (exposure to pollut-ants, floods, heat waves, etc) or indirectly (eg. by altering risks of infectious diseases, food availability, etc). The magnitude of these impacts and relative importance of specific environ-mental stressors may vary (eg. higher relevance of biodiversity loss in areas where population relies on local food production or plants used as medicines). • basic ecosystem services and their relevance for human well being • main environmental changes (climate change, stratospheric ozone depletion, land cover

change, urbanization, deforestation, desertification, biodiversity loss, depletion of freshwater resources) and possible impacts on health and well-being

• responses (and vulnerability) • benefits of environmental/ecosystem changes for health and well-being and ‘trade-offs’

Information sources: • Reports of the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment: Ecosystems and human well-being: Health synthe-

sis; Policy Responses; Current State and Trends • Floods, health and climate change. A strategic review. Tyndall Centre, 2004. • Interconnections between human health and ecological integrity. SETAC 2002 • Floods: climate change and adaptation strategies for human health, WHO 2002 Potential overlap to other chapters/sections • Floods in water section • Chapter 1 and chapter 5 on marine on ecosystem services • Chapter 3 on climate change

3. Multicausality of environmental impacts on human health and challenges in E&H assess-ments (2.5 - 3 pages) Main storyline: environmental impacts on health result from the combined exposures with dif-ferent time lag, being modified by individual factors, ‘indirect’ environmental factors, as well as socio-economic conditions. The magnitude of health outcomes depends both on the exposure and vulnerability to environmental stressors. • key features of environmental exposures and implications for health impacts • vulnerability to environmental stressors: gender, age, genetics, overall health condition; pov-

erty; social exclusion; certain population groups • inequalities of exposure; socio-economic and institutional differences affecting vulnerability

to environmental stressors • precautionary approach Information sources: • Environment and Health. EEA, 2005 • Background papers on multicausality, EEA 2004 • Ecosystems and human well-being. Report of the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Potential overlap to other chapters/sections • Poverty related to water and energy use (section 2.3 and section 7.3)

4. Human exposure and health effects of environmental hazards (3-4 pages) Main storyline: exposure and possible health effects of the most common pollutants; environ-mental contribution to common diseases; human biomonitoring • Heavy metals and POPs, products of combustion process – PAHs, etc • Diseases and health disorders related to environmental factors • Physical stressors – ionizing radiation – Chernobyl accident (20 years later); noise Information sources: • Environment and Health. EEA, 2005 • IV German Environmental Survey (contacts with experts involved in the Survey); III German Envi-

ronmental Survey (available online) • Case study: WHO survey on POPs in human milk (contacts with WHO experts) • Report of the World Resources Institute, 2005 • Search for case studies: research projects, publications, reports, SoE reports etc Potential overlap to other chapters/sections • Section 2.4 on chemicals

5. Burden of disease attributable to environmental factors (1-1.5 pages) Main storyline: Estimates of burden of ill health attributable to environmental factors– concept of DALYs and the recent estimates for the European region; ‘uni-causal’ approach. • Estimates of environmental burden of disease in Europe for the selected factors Information sources: • WHO. The European Health Report 2005 • WHO. Burden of disease attributable to selected environmental factors and injuries among Europe’s

children and adolescents. EBD Series, WHO, 2004 • OECD review, 2001 • Environment and Health. EEA, 2005

6. Policy context – links between E&H recognized in policy documents (0.5 page) • EU E&H Action Plan, CEHAPE (Children Environment and Health Action Plan for Europe)

– post Budapest process • CAFÉ, WFD, REACH

15 PKR/15/05/2006

Information sources: • Original policy documents (available on-line) • Environment and Health. EEA, 2005 Potential overlap to other chapters/sections • Chapter 1

3.2. Section 2.2: Air Quality in EEA and EECCA region (9-12 pages)

1. Key messages – introduction (0.5-1 page) • Air pollution has long been recognised as posing a significant risk to human health and the

environment. Europe has made great strides in reducing many forms of air pollution. Ac-tions have focused on establishing minimum quality standards for ambient air and tackling the problems of acid rain and ground level ozone.

• Polluting emissions from large combustion plant and mobile sources have been reduced; fuel quality improved and environmental protection requirements integrated into the trans-port and energy sectors. In particular, it has eliminated smog in many areas and reduced acid rain.

• Despite remarkable reduction of air pollutant emissions atmospheric pollution still poses remarkable threat to human health and the environment as a whole. Limit values for PM10 and ozone are extensively exceeded in Europe.

• Current levels of air pollution by fine particles and ozone are causing significant damage to health in European cities resulting in several hundreds of thousands of premature deaths in Europe each year, increased hospital admissions, extra medication, and millions of lost working days., increasing mortality, shortening life expectancy by almost one year, increas-ing morbidity, and affecting the healthy development of children.

• Although as a result of the economic restructuring in EECCA region pollutant levels in am-bient air have decreased, concentrations above limit values still occur in many cities. Simi-lar to western Europe the main public health impact is caused by air pollution by small par-ticles and ozone.

• The growth in (private) road transport substantially contributes to air pollution in cities. However, emissions from industry, power production and households contributes substan-tially as well to air pollution in urban areas in many parts of EECCA, central and eastern Europe and in Balkan countries.

• Acidification and eutrophication of ecosystems by air pollution and exposure of vegetation to excessive concentration of ozone in lower part of atmosphere pose still a serious threat to the environment in many parts of Europe and EECCA region.

2. Introduction – socio-economic and legal framework (1.5-2 page) Main storyline. Present air quality and air pollutant emission related legal framework in EU25, candidate countries and EECCA region, LRTAP Convention, socio-economic development hav-ing influence on the AQ legal framework (- EU enlargement, environmental strategy (possibly comparison of AQ objectives/standards, LV as box). Development of air pollution effecting sectors (transport, energy and industry)(possibly reference to other chapters) The progress in Central and Western Europe would be assessed against the policy intentions of the 6th Environmental Action Programme. CAFÉ Air pollution Thematic strategy. Information sources: • International sources on Economic, Environmental and Social Statistics (UN, OECD) • EECCA Environmental strategy (ECE/CEP/105/Rev.1). • EU air quality legislation • Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution • Aleg Cherp*, Irina Kopteva, Ruben Mnatsakanian. ‘Economic transition and environmental sustain-

ability: effects of economic restructuring on air pollution in the Russian Federation. Journal of Envi-ronmental Management 68 (2003) 141–151

Potential overlap to other chapters/sections • Energy 7.3.3 Air pollutant emissions • Transport section (7.2.2 Air and noise pollution)

3. Atmospheric emissions (1.5-2 pages) Main storyline.

For the EU10 and Accession/Candidate states excluding Turkey the acid emissions target has already been met and the NIS are at a similar level of reduction. Rapidly increasing private transport is a major problem for the urban environment in EECCA. • Trends of acidifying, eutrophying, ozone precursor, and PM precursor and PM primary parti-

cle emissions in EU25, candidate countries and EECCA region; (1990, 2000, 2005 and ex-pected projection according to CLE for 2010, 2020)

Information sources: • CSI001 Emission of acidifying substances; CSI002 ozone precursor and CSI003Emissions of particles

for the EEA countries • Data from EMEP & Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution • EECCA indicator: emissions of pollutants into the atmospheric air • CEC Emissions of Air Pollutants • Государственный доклад «О состоянии и охране окружающей среды Российской Федерации в

2004 году http://www.mnr.gov.ru/part/?act=more&id=726&pid=153 Potential overlap to other chapters/sections • Transport section (7.2.2 Air and noise pollution)

4. Ambient Air Quality (status and its development)(2-2.5 pages) Main storyline: Large fractions of the urban population are exposed to concentrations of air pollutants in excess of the health-related limit or target values defined in the air quality policies. Air pollution is among the most serious of the environmental problems faced by cities in EECCA. Lack of monitoring data precludes in-depth assessment of the state of air quality in this region. • Trends of NO2 and PM10 annual averages, ozone air pollution indicators in urban ar-

eas(graphs and map presentation); • SO2 indicator in urban areas for comparison of region, • Hazardous substances (Heavy metals and PAH data are available in EECCA region). Information sources: • CSI004 Exceedance of air quality limit values in urban areas • Information from EEA SoER2005 and other EEA reports • EECCA indicator: air quality in urban areas and review of state of environment reports Potential overlap to other chapters/sections • Transport section (7.2.2 Air and noise pollution)

5. Impact of air pollution (1.5 -2 page) Main storyline: Air pollution is a significant public health concern. It is responsible for a signifi-cant reduction in average life expectancy, several hundred thousand premature deaths, thou-sands of additional hospital admissions, increased use of medication and millions of days every year where activities are restricted. The pollutants of most concern for human health are ozone and airborne particulate matter. Air pollution can have a number of other impacts:, acidifica-tion, eutrophication, and damage to other ecosystems such as forests. Other impacts have been identified and assessed, such as damage to materials, buildings and cultural heritage, as well as wider economic and social effects • Health effects ozone exposure (premature deaths, chronic bronchitis, restricted activity days), • health effects particulate matter (PM) • acidification, eutrophication and ozone pollution impact to vegetation (??) Information sources: • CSI005 Exposure of ecosystems to acidification, eutrophication and ozone for the EEA countries • Effects of air pollution on health cannot currently be quantified in EECCA – information may be in-

cluded from review of SoE reports • Health basis for air quality management in Eastern Europe, Caucasus and Central Asia. Report from a

WHO consultative meeting. Moscow, Russian Federation, WHO 2005 • ‘Systematic Review of Health Aspects of Air Pollution in Europe’ WHO report Potential overlap to other chapters/sections • Section 2.1 environment and health

6. Air quality prospects (responses) (2-2.5 page) Main storyline: The specific EU air quality policies of the CAFE Strategy will significantly im-prove air quality and reduce the impacts both for human health and ecosystems. Economic growth in EECCA region, which is now expected, will not immediately bring in new technology for industrial sources. Growth in transport and a greater proportion of new vehicles can be ex-

17 PKR/15/05/2006

pected, but improvements in air quality will take many years. In some countries, serious eco-nomic problems will preclude strong abatement measures. Emissions can therefore be expected to rise, with consequent effects on air quality. Information sources: • Impact assessment in relation to the CAFÉ thematic strategy • The CAFE Programme, Implementation of the Thematic Strategy on Air Pollution • Государственный доклад «О состоянии и охране окружающей среды Российской Федерации в

2004 году; http://www.mnr.gov.ru/part/?act=more&id=726&pid=153 • Information from EEA SoER2005 and other EEA reports

3.3. Section 2.3: Water stress (14-20 pages)

1. Key messages – introduction (1. page) The key messages of this chapter will very much depend on the data and information that be-comes available during the data collection phase. However, the messages will as far as possible focus on a comparison of the situation in EECCA countries and the west-Balkans with that of the EEA countries. • Water stress is an issue in the southern part of the region, specifically in the central Asian

countries. Water availability is crucial for economic development in Central Asia. Socio-economic consequences (limited access to water for domestic and agricultural use) go hand in hand with environmental consequences (wetland degradation, salt water intrusion).

• Drinking water problems in the EECCA and SEE countries are a mixture of environmental and financial and management issues

• Climate impacts on water gave already been observed and more serious impacts can be predicted for the future

• Floods • Pollution and water quality • River fragmentation • Europe’s old lakes (e.g. lake Ohrid, Baikal, Prespa, Sevan; Issyk-Kul) are threatened by

human activities (tourism development, water abstraction for agriculture; damming for hy-dropower etc.)

2. Water resources and use (3-4 pages) Main storyline with EECCA focus but also Mediterranean countries as in the EU water initiative (launched at the WSSD in 2002): Water stress is an issue in the southern part of the region, spe-cifically in the central Asian countries. Water availability is crucial for economic development in Central Asia. Socio-economic consequences (limited access to water for domestic and agricul-tural use) go hand in hand with environmental consequences (wetland degradation, salt water intrusion). • Trend in water abstraction and sectorial water use • Water abstraction for agriculture and irrigation (may be moved to agriculture section (ch. 7)) • Drought episodes (focus on droughts last years in EECCA, Iberian Peninsula & Heat wave

2003) • River basins affected by high water abstraction (e.g. Guadiana, Jucar, Turkish rivers, Amu &

Syr Daray) • High loss rates of abstracted water Information sources: • CSI18 Use of freshwater resources (Water exploitation index; water abstraction and consumption by

sectors; EEA32 update of CSI18 spring 2006); • EECCA (UNSTAT questionnaire & national statistical offices) – EECCA indicators (revised 06) Re-

newable fresh water resources (surface and groundwater); Freshwater abstraction; Household water use per capita; Water loses; Reuse of freshwater in manufacturing industry

• Case study on drought episodes (Based on review of SoE reports) • Case study on rivers affected by high water abstraction (Based on review of SoE reports; WFD article

5 reports) • High loss rates of abstracted water (Based on review of SoE reports & EECCA indicator) Potential overlap to other chapters/sections • Water abstraction for agriculture and irrigation (Chapter 7)

• Climate change impact on water resources (Chapter 3) • Droughts (Soil – chapter 4)

3. Drinking water problems (2-3 pages) Drinking water problems in the EECCA and SEE countries are a mixture of environmental and financial and management issues. • Percentage of population connected to water supply networks • Bad condition of supply networks and unprotected wells • Water and poverty issues • Drinking water quality • Water and health issues; out-break of water-borne diseases • Status of ratification of the Protocol on Water and Health • EU water initiative Information sources: • Population connected to water supply networks (MDG indicator; review of SoE reports; National

Environmental Health Action Plans (NEHAB)) • CSI18 Use of freshwater resources (Water exploitation index; water abstraction and consumption by

sectors; EEA32 update of CSI18 spring 2006; EECCA (UNSTAT questionnaire & national statistical offices) –

• EECCA indicators (revised 06) Household water use per capita; & Water loses • Bad condition of supply networks and unprotected wells (review of SoE reports; NEHABs) • Water and poverty issues (review of SoE reports; UNDP; WorldBank) • Drinking water quality (review of SoE reports; NEHABs); EECCA indicators (revised 06): Drinking

water quality: proportion of samples failing the standard • Water and health issues (WHO; review of SoE reports; NEHABs) • Status of ratification of the Protocol on Water and Health (WHO information www) Potential overlap to other chapters/sections • WHO report in 2006/07?

4. Climate impacts on water (2-3 pages) • Effect on precipitation, run-off and availability of water.

o Increased run-off of the large Russian rivers discharging into the Arctic Sea o Change in seasonality in run-off o Rivers fed by glaciers and snow (The Alps: Rhone, Rhine, Danube, rivers in the north;

Tajikistan etc.) • Impact on availability of water • Higher water temperature and change in ice-cover Information sources: • Case study on increased run-off of the large Russian rivers discharging into the Arctic Sea; & Rivers

fed by glaciers and snow (Based on review of scientific literature; ACIA) • Impact on availability of water (SOER05 environmental outlook; GEO4 scenarios?; EECCA outlook

indicators; IPCC 4th assessment results) • Higher water temperature and change in ice-cover (ETC/WTR2005 Scoping study on climate impact

on water) Potential overlap to other chapters/sections • IPCC 4th assessment report 2007 • Climate change impact on water resources (Chapter 3)

5 Floods (1-2 pages) • Flood risk maps from JRC supplemented with information from EECCA • Overview of major floods the last 5 years • Climate change and floods • EU policy on flood risk management Information sources: • •Flood risk maps from JRC supplemented with information from EECCA • Overview of major floods the last 5 years (update of information in EEA Briefing 1/2005 - Climate

change and river flooding in Europe) • EU policy on flood risk management (CEC flood risk homepage – including impact assessment www) Potential overlap to other chapters/sections • Climate change and health

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6 Pollution and water quality (3-5 pages) • Sanitation and waste water treatment • Nutrient pollution (load and sources of pollution) • Diffuse pollution (nutrients and pesticides)

o Effect of changes in the east on pressures from agriculture o Effect of measures (Nitrate Directive and national measures) on diffuse pollution o Pollution by pesticides (Aral Sea case; old pesticide stocks)

• Pollution from mining – including accidents • The state of water quality across Europe and EECCA Information sources: • Sanitation and waste water treatment (MDG indicator; UNSTAT questionnaire; CSI24 Urban Waste

Water Treatment update EEA32 spring 2006: EECCA indicators (revised 06): Non-treated urban wastewater; review of SoE reports)

• Load and sources of pollution (update of EEA 2005 source apportionment report with EECCA and SEE information)

• Diffuse pollution (based on LARA results and updated with information from EECCA) • Pollution from mining – including accidents (review of SoE reports) • The state of water quality across Europe (EEA32 update of CSI19 Organic pollution; CSI20 Nutrient

Pollution – EECCA indicators (revised 06): oxygen-consuming substances in rivers & Nutrients (ni-trates and phosphates) in freshwater (rivers, lakes and groundwater); information from TACIS project (review of SoE reports)

Potential overlap to other chapters/sections • UNECE 2007 Transboundary water report • Diffuse pollution (nutrients and pesticides) – (Ch. 7 agriculture) • Load and sources of pollution (Ch. Marine and coastal management)

7. Ecological quality (2 pages) • River regulation – many European rivers have their flow regulated affecting migration fish

such as sturgeon and salmon • Europe’s old lakes (e.g. lake Ohrid, Baikal, Prespa, Sevan; Issyk-Kul) are threatened by hu-

man activities (tourism development, water abstraction for agriculture; damming for hydro-power etc.)

Information sources: • Damming of rivers (EEA spatial data; review of scientific literature and SoE reports) • Salmon and sturgeon (scientific literature and SoE reports) • Case study Europe’s old lakes (review of scientific literature and SoE reports) Potential overlap to other chapters/sections • Sturgeon (Ch. Marine and coastal management) • Aquatic ecosystems (Ch. 4 Nature and biodiversity)

3.4. Section 2.4: Chemicals/hazardous substances (10-12 pages)

1. Introduction and key messages (1 page) Frame: Role of chemicals in techno- and eco-sphere. Use of lifecycle stages to connect to other (sub) chapters in the report) and to demonstrate links to DPSIR such as relevant drivers in the different sec-tors, state and impact in environmental compartments and human health, relevant policies. Chemicals, natural and man-made, are an integral part of our natural and urban environment. As they are everywhere there is a strong need to ensure a safe handling. This requires in-depth knowledge about the inherent properties of chemicals and mechanisms to avoid or at least reduce risks. Man-made or industrial chemical substances can be released during every stage of their lifecycle from production (or import) and processing over manufacturing and use (industrial and private) to disposal. This can lead to gross pollution (poorly managed industries, contaminated sites, accidents) as well as diffuse releases causing long-term combined exposure to low levels of chemicals mixtures. The as-sessment and management of these risks therefore requires an integrated approach rather than isolated measures.

However reality is different: • Currently there is still a lack of data on inherent properties as well as on exposure/risk. • Widespread use of chemical substances without or despite knowledge about their hazards created a

lot of the well known problems which in case of persistent substances or delayed effects will stay with for a long time, even after substances are phased out. (link to ‘Late lessons’)

• Policies on air, water, soil quality, food and public health are not very well linked. Environmental chemicals do not stop at borders – what is the global situation in chemical safety? Do we export the problems out of the EU? pproaches to solve problem (at least partially): • PIC and POPs conventions, SAICM, ‘green’ industry initiatives • REACH: if adopted will create the knowledge needed for safe management of chemicals – but

knowledge alone is not sufficient – we need also implementation of measures that are appropriate in terms of time and extend (criteria of evidence).

Compare against the 4 questions from “Low doses”: • How many chemicals are there on the market and what is known about their hazards? • What is known about how chemicals move through and accumulate in the environment? • What are the known and suspected human and ecological risks from exposure to chemicals? • What are the current and emerging policy initiatives for reducing or eliminating these risks?

2. Production and use (Drivers) (1 page) The chemicals industry is not only one of the major industries but innovations in this sector have the potential to influence a wide range of downstream uses. Reflect on developments of the last years such as trends of production (types of products, hazardous substances vs. total production volume, ‘out-sourcing’ of production, (Eco)innovation, green chemistry • Production statistics of chemicals, production of (hazardous) chemicals vs. GDP • Use categories of chemicals • Specific categories: agrochemicals (pesticides and fertiliser) production, consumption and use • Import of basic chemicals from countries with emerging industries • (Eco)innovation, green chemistry Information sources: • For EEA: CEFIC data, EUROSTAT statistics and chemical sustainability indicator For EECCA countries? (May be OECD, UNECE?), OECD data? • ECB • Eurostat pesticide statistics, HAIR project ?, Cross-reference to chapter on agriculture • Eurostat import statistics, UN statistics?, CEFIC? • ETAP, follow-up of OECD workshop on service-oriented strategies in the chemicals industry? Potential overlap to other chapters/sections • Chapter sustainable consumption and production • Agriculture(pesticide use)

3. Emissions and releases of hazardous substances (Pressures) (2p) Emissions of hazardous substances from normal use(industry point sources and diffuse sources/consumer products) and in case of accidents • Industry emissions and POPs • Diffuse releases and consumer products • Industrial accidents • Hazardous waste and contaminated sites • Obsolete substances Information sources: • EPER, national PRTR e.g. Czech IPR website www.irz.cz, EMEP (MSC-East POPs, HM database

http://www.msceast.org/); cross-reference to indicators on emissions of hazardous substances in ‘media’ ori-ented chapters eg. Air: Emissions of non-methane VOC, total, CC: green house gas emissions PFCs, HFCs, SFs

• Nordic product register SPIN database, literature/case studies • EU: reports on Seveso-Directive (?); other countries: Convention on the Transboundary Effects of Industrial

Accidents http://www.unece.org/env/teia/welcome.htm ; case studies e.g. Romania (200x mining accident),

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China • Cross-reference to waste and soil sections Information sources for sub-issue • Table 6.3 in Kiev report (update if possible, ) IHPA, FAO, Case study ex-chemical plants in Durres and

Vlora, Albania Potential overlap to other chapters/sections • Ch 2.1 Air quality • Ch 2.2 Water • Ch. 5: Marine and coastal environment • Ch 6: Waste • Soil section in Ch 4: Nature and biodiversity • Ch. 1 (Europe in the wider world)

4. State and environment and health impacts (3 pages) Knowledge about inherent properties of chemicals as well as monitoring information is still incom-plete. Assessment therefore mainly based on case studies • Data availability • Some environmental monitoring results • Environmental impacts • Human bio monitoring and environment surveys • Human health impacts: allergies and other disease pattern changes in East Germany and new

member states after accession Information sources: • Can ECB repeat study for 2005 data as compared to 1998? PBT working group ?information sources for sub-

issue 1 (e.g. EEA and EECCA CSIs, case study based on review of SoE reports) • Cross-reference to air/water soil chapters, HELCOM data, literature, information from specimen

bank,UNEP reports, case studies on dioxin in cows milk (Ireland and Switzer-land),http://www.epa.ie/NewsCentre/ReportsPublications/AirQuality/FileUpload,8 , German national dioxin report, flame retardants, HM in compost (Switzerland ),Spanish HM study ?,Lindane, mercury in Albania, Russia environmental hot spots – see at the Swedish – Russia strategy, Barents initiative, Pskov information system and what is needed; UNECE monitoring working group for harmonization of environmental indica-tors

http://www.unece.org/env/europe/monitoring/meeting.html • Evaluation of WFD-Art. 5 reports; literature on endocrine disruptors, link to biodiversity chapter? • NGO reports on blood levels in humans (politicians, mother and children cohorts); Pilot and/or final results

of German Children environment survey; Flemish study in newborn and adolescents in different environ-mental settings. Human breast milk monitoring results: SE, UK (Alistair Hay), D? WHO for more country results? EECCA countries?

• Scientific literature, EU reports on health in accession countries; data from national E&H reports e.g. http://www.szu.cz/chzp/english/research/index.htm

Potential overlap to other chapters/sections • Ch. 2 introduction and air quality

5 Responses (1-2 pages) Status and process of some policies directly (REACH, POPs, PIC, SAICM, pesticides, biocides ….) or indirectly (WFD, CLRTP, IPPC…) relevant for chemical safety. EU/ECCA environmental strategies. Decline in levels of “classical” chemical pollutants shows that policies can be effective. Still knowledge gaps/emerging problems; measure against millenium goals/RIO, 2020 goal. Information sources: • Information from EU, UN and other international conventions and organisations • OECD EAP task force – analysis of the EECCA strategy • Environmental Performance reviews for the EECCA done by the UNECE

http://www.unece.org/env/epr/welcome.htm Potential overlap to other chapters/sections • Ch. 1 including Europe and the wider world, trade and environment

6 Case studies (ca. 2-3 pages, partly distributed in textboxes and graphs) Situation in some regions and illustrative examples to support overall storyline. • Artic • Baltic • Alps • Mining in the Balkans and examples of remediation in Southern Europe

• Munitions in marine environment: starting to leak, risk of gas-pipeline? • Radio nuclides • Some emerging pollutants and/or technologies: e.g. PBDEs, PFOS/PFOA, Irgarol, Pharmaceuti-

cals in the environment, nanotechnology • Well-know suspects in new light (lead, mercury), PCBs/Hg – cost of inaction, LCA of CFC Information sources: • AMAP, GEO4 Arctic chapter, Vital Arctic Graphics

http://www.vitalgraphics.net/_documents/vitalarcticgraphics.pdf • Nordic Council of Ministers (2005): Risks and management of dioxin-like compounds in Baltic Sea fish: n

integrated assessment. And other literature • MONARP project (Report from Austria) • Environment and Security Initiative www.envsec.org; Mining on Balkans

http://www.envsec.org/see/pub/miningfullb.pdf ; USGS country homepage http://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/country/europe.html For remediation: e-Ecorisk EU project

• International sea maps; scientific literature • Reference to marine chapter, Chernobyl reports; on Uranium waste processing:

http://www.osce.org/bishkek/item_2_181.html • Reference to marine chapter, German study on PFOS/PFOA, scientific literature, Swedish studies on emerg-

ing pollutants:http://www.ivl.se/rapporter/pdf/B1647.pdf ; http://www.ivl.se/rapporter/pdf/B1646.pdf; http://www.ivl.se/rapporter/pdf/B1643.pdf; http://www.ivl.se/rapporter/pdf/B1641.pdf

• Nordic Council studies on cost of inaction PCB/Hg, Ackerman study LCA of CFC Potential overlap to other chapters/sections • Marine and coastal environment • Sustainable development and Waste • Reference to other chapters or other products

7 Outlook (1 page) Potential and risk factors of new policies, e.g. REACH/SAICM, for the environment (+E&H); success depends on practical implementation, extend of supporting initiatives such as industrial ecology, sus-tainable care, green chemistry, Joint initiatives EU-ECCA countries etc Information sources: • Information from EU, UN and other international conventions and organisations • Existing REACH impact assessments • Information from NGOs • sources for sub-issue 1 (e.g. EEA and EECCA CSIs, case study based on review of SoE reports) • Information sources for sub-issue 1 (e.g. EEA and EECCA CSIs, case study based on review of SoE reports) Potential overlap to other chapters/sections • Ch. 1 including Europe and the wider world, trade and environment • Ch. 5 Sustainable consumption and production

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4. Chapter 3: Climate change

Chapter 3 is composed of five sections • Section 3.1: Key messages – introduction (1 page) • Section 3.2: Climate change and its impacts (4-5 pages) • Section 3.3: Greenhouse gas emissions trends and projections (including progress towards targets)

(4-5 pages) • Section 3.4: Actions to minimise impacts of climate change (Policy actions) (4-5 pages) • Section 3.5: Interaction between climate change and ozone depletion (1 page) The total length is foreseen to be 14-17 pages. 1. Key messages – introduction (1 page)

The content of the chapter highlights progress since the Kiev report • New scientific knowledge on ongoing Climate change and the causes • Kyoto Protocol has entered into force • The need for adaptation programs more accepted • Insurance companies have taken the impacts more seriously • Implementation of the EU-ETS has given carbon a price • Kyoto Protocol flexible mechanisms are more in focus – win-win situations between

annex I countries and non annex 1 countries Brief description of the problem:

• Temperatures are increasing, sea levels rising and glaciers melting due to global warm-ing

• At least a part of this warming is caused by human activities • Impacts like flooding, impacts on biodiversity, ecosystems and human health can be ex-

pected • The problem is addressed globally by UNFCCC/KP, regionally by EU and nationally

by many action programs • In spite of this adaptation actions are needed

Information sources/illustrations: • SoER, TP 2005, Kiev report, other EEA reports • National communications to UNFCCC • Drafts of IPPC 4th assessment report

2. Climate change and its impacts (4-5 pages) The section will describe the ongoing climate change, its causes and its impacts:

• Global (and European) increase in temperature • Rise in sea level • Precipitation raise • Extreme weather events • Glacier melting and arctic ice melting • Impact on agriculture • Impact on the Marine environment (reference to chapter V) • Forestry and agriculture • Natural ecosystems and biodiversity (Reference to chapter IV) • Economic and health-related impacts

Information sources/illustrations: • Case study (1) – Melting of permafrost (1 page) • Case study (2) - Agriculture (in Russia) (1 page) • Special text box – Glacier melting (1/4 page) Boxes: • Mean temperature changes – EEA CSI 012 Global and European temperature • Sea level rise • “High impact, low probability” events, including a possible melting of the Greenland Ice sheet, the

slowdown of the thermohaline circulation, etc. Could be the introduction to a short discussion on the

reasons for the EU to select a 2C target and whether a lower target may be needed to avoid such events.

• Dangerous Climate Change taken from IPCC (4th assessment forthcoming) and the key new report “Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change” (2006)

Information sources • SoER, TP 2005, Kiev report, other EEA reports • ACIA • National communications to UNFCCC • Drafts of IPPC 4th assessment report Potential overlap to other chapters/sections: • Many overlaps for the moment

3.

Greenhouse gas emissions trends and projections (including progress towards targets) (4-5 pages) Main storyline: Trends and projection in total and separately for different sectors (Energy, In-dustry, Transport, Agriculture, Waste). Updating of the information given in the Kiev report. • Targets (EU,EEA, EECCA, Balkan) • Progress towards targets (EU, EEA, EECCA, Balkan) • Policy responses; National programmes Information sources/illustrations: Indicators: • EEA CSI 010Greenhouse gas emissions and removals; CSI 011Projections of greenhouse gas emis-

sions and removals; CSI 006 Production and consumption of ozone depleting substances • EECCA CSI (under discussion) Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Emissions vs targets; Projected GHG emis-

sions in 2010 vs targets; GHG emissions of key source sectors (energy, transport, industry, agricul-ture, waste); Emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) and non-CO2 (N2O, CH4, fluorinated gases); Con-sumption of ozone-depleting substances

Table(s): Targets for all countries Figure(s): Distance to targets • SoER, TP 2005, Kiev report, other EEA reports • National communications to UNFCCC, Inventory reports • Drafts of IPPC 4th assessment report • Tacis project Potential overlap to other chapters/sections: • Section 7.1 energy and section 7.2 transport

4. Actions to minimise impacts of climate change (Policy actions) (4-5 pages) 4.1 Mitigation. [0,5-1 page]

Main storyline: Brief discussion on mitigation in general and in different sectors (energy, trans-port, industrial processes, agriculture and waste). For the sectors covered in the report the main information should be given in those chap-ters/sub chapters (under chapter VII)

4.2 Use of Kyoto mechanisms (Emissions trading, CDM and joint implementation) and sinks (1,5-2 pages) Main storyline: General description of the Kyoto mechanisms. Situation concerning the different mechanisms (need, number of projects registered and in the pipeline, number of allowances expected)

• Joint implementation (JI) • Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) • Green investment schemes (GIS) • Trading with Assigned Amount Units (hot air)

Information sources/illustrations: • Case study – CDM (1 page) • National communications to UNFCCC; UNFCCC web-site

• NAP 2 • TP 2005 • Point Carbon information

4.3 Adaptation [2-2,5 pages] Main storyline: Adaptation programs are needed in addition to mitigation. National plans de-

25 PKR/15/05/2006

signed to take care of regional/national problems are needed. Most sectors of economy will be affected. Information sources: • National communications to UNFCCC • EEA reports (Cost of inaction, vulnerability and adaptation) • Drafts of IPPC 4th assessment report • Point Carbon

5. Interaction between climate change and ozone depletion (1 page) Main storyline: Climate change and ozone depletion separate processes, but there are interac-tions. Interactions include: • Ozone depleting substances have significant GWP • Greenhouse gases affect troposphere and stratosphere and thereby ozone depletion • Production, emission of ozone depleting substances has decreased significantly • Concentrations in troposphere also decrease • Effects seen in stratosphere in concentrations • Ozone depletion has stabalized • Recovery of ozone layer takes until middle of this century • Recovery can be affected by greenhouse gases • Radioative forcing of ozone depleting substances and tropospheric and stratospheric ozone

affect climate change Sources of information: • IPCC/TEAP Special Report on Safeguarding the Ozone Layer and the Global Climate System: Issues

Related to Hydrofluorocarbons and Perfluorocarbons, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge (UK) and New York (USA), ISBN 0-521-68206-1, 2005

• WMO, Scientific Assessment of Ozone depletion 2006, (in preparation) Potential overlap to other chapters/sections: •

5. Chapter 4: Biodiversity

Chapter 4 is composed of seven sections • Section 4.1: Key messages – introduction (1 page) • Section 4.2: An integrated approach to halting biodiv. decline by 2010 (1 page) • Section 4.3: Species diversity (4-5 pages) • Section 4.4: Ecosystem diversity (4 pages) • Section 4.5: Ecological Networks (3 pages) • Section 4.6: Sustainable use (8 pages) • Section 4.7: Administration, participation and awareness (3 pages) The total length is foreseen to be 24-25 pages. 1. Key messages – introduction (1 page)

Species: Strong decline of common species related to agriculture in old member states, but lev-elling off of decline in recent years. Common farmland birds in new member states have re-mained rather stable. Same picture for common forest birds, although decline in new member states less pronounced. More critical species related to extensively farmed habitats have shown very strong decline. Invasive alien species are growing problem. Most important ex-amples … Concrete measures and action plans in …… Evidence suggests that only very quick action upon invasion is effective. Need for early warning systems.

Ecosystems: Decline of utilised farmland and massive urban sprawl around major urban areas. Serious loss of extensive (semi-natural) grasslands. Forest shows light increase. Mountainous habitats under various pressures (infrastructure development, tourism, climate change). Water quality in freshwater habitats has increased, but wetlands have declined strongly. Ecological networks of protected areas and corridors are being created. The N2000 network is getting into place. Little information, however, on measures and conservation status. Analysis of spa-tial configuration shows vulnerability of mountainous habitats, freshwater systems and coastal zones to climate change.

Sustainable use Forestry: The European forest area has slightly increased 1990-2005 mainly due to re-growth

and afforestation of abandoned agricultural land. Protection of forest for biodiversity is in-creasing. Forestry is harvesting much less than the annual increment, however illegal logging is a substantial issue. Forest damage from long-range air pollution has stabilized but forest fires are a main threat in Mediterranean and Steppic (?) regions. The forests deliver a wide range of products of importance to society; most importantly industrial round wood but wood fuel being one of increasing importance

Agriculture: General pressures on the environment are still high, especially in NW-Europe, where diffuse pollution of ground and surface water is a major concern. HNV farmland: Cur-rent estimates suggest that 15-25 % of the Utilised Agricultural Sarea in EU-25 can be con-sidered High Nature Value farmland. Site protection under Natura 2000 will only cover about one third of this area. Intensification and land abandonment are major pressures. The Com-mon Agricultural Policy is increasingly geared towards non trade concerns and provides sev-eral relevant instruments (e.g. AE-schemes), but their targeting to high nature value farmland is not optimal.

2. An integrated approach to halting biodiv. decline by 2010 (1 page) To stop biodiversity decline efforts are made from a spatial perspective (creating ecological networks of protected areas) and a sectoral perspective (stimulating decoupling and sustainable use). Progress is made in both lines of action, but overall biodiversity is still in decline. • Policy background

o EECCA Environment Strategy o Kyiv Resolution on Biodiversity

• Approach (Description of the content of the chapter) o Species diversity (distribution, trends, invasive species)

27 PKR/15/05/2006

o Ecosystems (distribution, trends, goods and services) o Spatial perspective (site protection / ecological infrastructure) o Sectoral perspective (sustainable use / decoupling)

Information sources: • Policy background: EECCA Environment Strategy & Kyiv Resolution on Biodiversity • Approach: Review of/reference to information in Millennium Assessment; SOER2005 & Biodiversity

in Europe Conference docs 3. Species diversity (4 pages) 3.1 General trends (2 pages)

Strong decline of common species related to agriculture in old EU member states, but levelling off of decline in recent years. Common farmland birds in new member states have remained rather stable. Same picture for common forest birds, although decline in new member states less pronounced. More critical species related to extensively farmed habitats have shown very strong decline.

• Red lists (Threatened species) • Common Birds indicator • Water birds • Endemic species Information sources: • IUCN / national red lists • CSI09 Species Diversity (Common Bird Indicator) for EEA32 – Similar to SEBI2010 indicator • For EECCA and Balkan the general trend for selected species may be reported (Review of SoE re-

ports) 3.2 Invasive alien species (3 pages)

Alien species, the second major threat to biodiversity next to land-use changes, establish in Europe at an increasing rate. Main pathways are linked to increasing international trade, transport and tourism. There is a global recognition that there are gaps and inconsistencies in the regulatory framework to control the threat by alien species. Relatively few – ca 200 – of all the thousands of alien species that have established in Europe during the last century are re-sponsible for the main negative impact. These ‘worst invasives’ occur in all main ecosystems and are most frequent in the Mediterranean and ECCA countries. About half the European countries have, or are currently developing national strategies for coordinated efforts to man-age the problem of invasive alien species. In the EU the Life program finances substantial man-agement actions to control invasive alien species. • Cumulative number of alien species in Europe since 1900. • List of worst invasive species threatening biodiversity in Europe per ecosystem (terrestrial,

freshwater & marine). • Maps of distribution and impact of selected IAS in Europe. • ‘Awareness of IAS’. Compilation of policy measures by European countries. • Costs for EU Life-projects aiming at control and management of IAS. Information sources: • Data on pathways to be collected from relevant websites (CBD, GISP, NOBANIS, Ballast Water

Convention). • SEBI2010 indicator: Five Nordic countries will be expanded with 11 Baltic States • Pan-European coverage may be available in first half of 2006. • SEBI EG5 mini project: case studies for terrestrial environment (and marine environment) • Bern Convention, CBD and Ramsar Convention, plus planned EG5 mini-project Potential overlap to other chapters/sections • Invasive alien species are also covered in the marine chapter (ch. 5)

4. Ecosystem diversity (4 pages) EEA countries: Decline of utilised farmland and massive urban sprawl around major urban

areas. Serious loss of extensive (semi-natural) grasslands. Forest shows light increase. Mountainous habitats under various pressures (infrastructure development, tourism, climate change). Water quality in freswater habitats has increased, but wetlands have declined strongly.

The Russian forest is still the largest in the world, but the romantic notion of the taiga as an

unbroken band of boundless wilderness is a myth. Approximately a quarter (26 percent) of the Russian forest remains essentially undisturbed (intact).

Industrial forest harvesting and the fires that follow logging, agricultural use and road con-struction are the main causes of fragmentation and transformation in European Russia and the southern parts of Siberia and the Russian Far East. In Western Siberia and the northern parts of Eastern Siberia and the Far East the extraction of mineral resources (including prospecting and construction of transportation infrastructure) and the massive human in-duced fires that accompany these activities have also caused fragmentation.

Information sources: • General statistics on distribution and trends of ecosystems and habitats • For EECCA and Balkan: Atlas of Russian forests

4.2 Pressures (2 pages) Pressures in Western Europe : from SOE2005 EECCA: Fragmentation of pristine forests, Illegal occupation of land, construction works, and pollution of the territories. Level of poaching is high, especially in the Far East, Siberia and Central regions. Illegal fishing is remains high as well. Impact of invasive species is increasing. Alarming situation for exportation of fauna and flora Caucasus: to be developed • eutrophication • climate change • urbanisation Information sources • Missing Potential overlap to other chapters/sections • Overlap with many other chapters since these pressures are very general.

5.1 Pan-European Ecological Network (1 page) The development of international and European legal frameworks for nature conservation and biodiversity has prompted co-ordinated initiatives between countries with a view to identifying and addressing the major conservation challenges at a supra-national level. Various networks of protected sites have thus been set up, each meeting specific objectives but complementing the others in respect of the primary objective of conserving biodiversity. All of these protected sites, irrespective of whether or not they are organised into networks, form the beginnings of the pan-European ecological network, both owing to their role as core areas and because they are the hallmark of a political commitment to – and an institutional framework for – nature conservation. Information sources • PEEN main report • Carpathian mountains treaty

5.2 EMERALD (1 page) Set up under the Bern Convention, the Emerald Network – envisaged since 1989 – was given practical form in 1996 by the Standing Committee to the Bern Convention with a view to sup-plementing the EU-Natura 2000 network, on a similar basis, in non-Community countries. As well as helping to identify and conserve core areas of the pan-European ecological network, the Emerald Network, which is in the process of being developed, also facilitates the establishment of national networks of protected areas. The first stage in setting up the Emerald Network is the development of pilot projects, supported by the Council of Europe and, in some cases (Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, the “former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia”, Serbia and Montenegro), the European Environ-ment Agency. The purpose of these pilot projects is to identify, with a view to their subsequent protection, sites containing the species and habitats listed in Resolutions No. 4 and 6 of the Standing Committee to the Bern Convention and Annexes I and II of the Habitats Directive. As of late 2005, 27 pilot projects have been organised with a view to launching the Emerald Network, 20 of them in central and east European countries. Information sources • Council of Europe /Bern Convention

5.3 Natura2000 (1 page) The N2000 network is getting into place. Little information, however, on measures and conser-

29 PKR/15/05/2006

vation status. Analysis of spatial configuration shows vulnerability of mountainous habitats, freshwater systems and coastal zones to climate change • Status quo

o Designation o Management (application of instruments) o Conservation status

• Perspectives o Climate change (short reference to CC chapter) o Susceptible habitats / spatial coherence

6. Sustainable use (8 pages) 6.1 Ecosystem goods and servives (1 page)

Sub-issues • Products and services (food, roundwood, fuel wood, NWG, tourism) • Carbon sink issue and possible implications for biodiversity of (forest) management tar-

geted for climate change mitigation Potential overlap to other chapters/sections • Aspects of ecosystem goods and services will also be covered in other chapters

6.2 Forestry1 (3 pages) The area of forest is increasing in all European countries (Apparently this is not true at Pan-European level: it was mentioned during the 2nd writers meeting that forest area is DECREAS-ING in Russia and other EECCA countries) , mainly due to spontaneous re-growth and affore-station of abandoned agricultural (incl. extensively grazed) land. Most of European forests are semi-natural while plantations mainly occurs in the following countries: xxx; Due to increased protection for biodiversity the forest area available for wood supply is stable, or slightly de-creasing (countries: xxx). Forestry activities has during the period 1990-2005 harvested (much) less than the increment; however illegal logging is substantial as shown by … The quality of forest from a biodiversity point of view is indicated by the amount of deadwood. This factor is (to some extent) developing favourable but a target needs to be identified. The damage to the European forests from long-range air pollution seems to have stabilised but forests are still under threat, mainly due to forest fires (Expand on forest fires based on information from JRC). A wide range of products are obtained in the European forest; most important industrial roundwood but wood fuel is increasing. This is in line with the EU policy target for renewable energy, and it should be noted that woodfuel is of great importance in rural areas during cold winters and in situations of uncertain energy supply. Extent and changes in forest area in Euro-pean countries. • Management of the forest resources. • Forest health. • Socio-economic benefits. Information sources. • FAO Forest Resource Assessment 2005. Pan-European dataset covering 1990, 2000 & 2005. • TBFRA2000/MCPFE2003 data). • The ICP Forest Program Coordination Centre • The JRC-IES Fire Data Base (Mediterranean countries), cf. SOER2005 biodiversity sub-report. Potential overlap to other chapters/sections • The may be an overlap to the Chapter 4 section on ‘Ecosystem goods and services’ 2 and to sector

chapters of the report (agriculture; support to afforestation). 6.3 Agriculture (3 pages)

General pressures on the environment are still high, and diffuse pollution of ground and sur-face water is a major concern.

HNV farmland: Current estimates suggest that 15-25 % of the Utilised Agricultural Sarea in EU-25 can be considered High Nature Value farmland. Site protection under Natura 2000 will only cover about one third of this area. Intensification and land abandonment are major

1 The assessment will largely follow the model developed within the SEBI2010 Expert Group on sustainable use. 2 to be sorted out editorially at a later stage operationally most feasible to ask the writer of the forest section to

make a first draft.

pressures. The Common Agricultural Policy and A-E schemes. • General aspects

o Short reference to agri chapter o Area under agri-environment support o Area under nature protection o Intensification/extensification o Address the desertification issue in EECCA countries in relation to intensifica-

tion and climate change • High nature value farmland

o Identification o Management o Perspectives

Information sources • IRENA 1 Area under agri-environment support, IRENA 4 Area under nature protection, IRENA 15

Intensification/extensification, IRENA 26 High nature value (farmland) areas • Results EEA/JRC HNV project (EU-27 data) Potential overlap to other chapters/sections • Agriculture chapter. Biodiversity aspects (such as HNV) should be dealt with here.

6.4 Tourism (1 page) Main storyline - missing Information sources • Missing Potential overlap to other chapters/sections • .

7 Administration, participation and awareness (3 pages) 7.1 Monitoring (1 page)

• Reference to the Kiev Resolution on Monitoring and indicators • Indicators and monitoring (SEBI 2010 ) Information sources • ETC/BD reports on indicators • National reports to CBDPotential overlap to other chapters/sections • .

7.2 Public awareness action plans (1 page) Main storyline - missing Information sources • Missing

7.3 Policy challenges (1 page) Main storyline - missing Information sources • Missing

31 PKR/15/05/2006

6. Chapter 5: Marine and coastal environment

Chapter 5 is composed of four sections • Section 5.1: Key messages – introduction (1.5 pages) • Section 5.2 :Marine and coastal ecosystems in Europe, Caucasus and Central Asia: A regional

overview (state and trends) (16.5 pages) • Section 5.3: Eastern European, Caucasus and Central Asia regional seas: Specific key environ-

mental impacts (4 pages) • Section 5.4: Summary, conclusions and recommendations (2 pages) (The total length is foreseen to be 25 pages). 1. Key messages – introduction (1.5 pages)

• Functioning marine and coastal ecosystems = Provision of environmental, socio-economic and health services = Life!

• Despite efforts, the management of marine and coastal ecosystems is not improving as much as required; in some cases it is getting worse, and climate change seems to gener-ally be aggravating the situation

• Most of the driving forces and pressures are common across the region, and many of the observed impacts are well known (e.g overfishing) and/or gathering importance such as oil exploration/exploitation/transpor.

• Policy-makers appear to disregard scientific advice in relation to marine and coastal ecosystem protection and management (e.g. on depleted fish stocks) and favour “busi-ness as usual” socio-economic development

• Approach to marine and coastal ecosystem protection and management enshrined in most policy frameworks/relevant international agreements in Europe and ECCA is not strategic in terms of maintaining ecosystem functions/services. A new regulatory ap-proach is needed

• The ecosystem-based approach, placing the ecosystem at the core of regulation, is the most suitable one to protect and adequately manage marine and coastal ecosystems, and keep on benefiting from their services. It requires a paradigm shift in the way we “manage” our seas and coasts. Reference to Marine Protected Areas

• Link to international policy/legal frameworks, such as the European Marine Strategy, EU Water Framework Directive and European Neighbourhood Policy, and to how these can promote the ecosystem-based approach to manage the marine environment, includ-ing outside the EU borders

• Link to European/EECCA Regional Sea Conventions (in Chapter1) Information sources/illustrations

• EEA map with catchment areas of European/EECCA seas or SoER2005 LME map • 1-2 examples of marine/costal ecosystem functions (e.g. coastal wetlands) and their socio-

economic values (UN Millennium Ecosystem Assessment) • EEA assessments (Dobris, Kiev and SoER 2005) and EC Communication “Towards a strategy to

protect and conserve the marine environment”, COM(2002)593 final 2. Marine and coastal ecosystems in Europe, Caucasus and Central Asia: A regional over-

view (state and trends) (16.5 pages) • Main storyline: A pan-European/EECCA overview looking at 8-9 environmental issues of

concern across the relevant regional seas is provided, highlighting also emerging “threats”. Environmental issues covered are eutrophication, fisheries, invasive alien spe-cies, climate change, pollution from radionuclides, pollution from hazardous substances, coastal zone use, oil pollution/exploration and shipping.

• Regional seas to be covered in this section/assessment: Baltic Sea, Barents Sea, Black Sea, Caspian Sea, Celtic-Biscay, Iberian, Mediterranean, North Sea, Norwegian Sea, and Russian Arctic.

2.1 Eutrophication (3 pages) • Assessment of nutrients and chlorophyll in coastal and marine waters

• Links to urban waste water treatment and diffuse pollution • Source apportionment of nitrogen and phosphorus discharges to European and EECCA seas Information sources: • EEA CSI 21 Nutrients in transitional, coastal and marine waters and 23 Chlorophyll in transitional,

coastal and marine waters as updated for EEA seas in 2006 • EECCA indicators (revised 06 if ready) nutrients in coastal waters and review eutrophication informa-

tion in of SoE reports • Information from EEA SOER2005 and review of latest regional seas state of the environment (SoE)

reports. Also information from EEA 2005 source apportionment report updated with information on discharge of nutrients to EECCA seas

• Waste water treatment (MDG indicator; UNSTAT questionnaire; CSI24 Urban Waste Water Treat-ment, update for EEA32 countries in spring 2006: EECCA indicators (revised 06): Non-treated urban wastewater; review of SoE reports)

• JRC chlorophyll a map updated with information from SeaWif to cover all 10 seas Potential overlap to other chapters/sections • Reference to Section 2.3 Water (2.3.6 Pollution and water quality) will be made in relation to load and

sources of pollution 2.2 Fisheries, including aquaculture production/impacts (3 pages)

• Assessment of status of marine fish stocks • Assessment of development in fishing activities, including fleet capacity • Aquaculture production/impact, looking also at hatcheries Information sources: • EEA CSI 32 Status of marine fish stocks and CSI 34 Fishing fleet capacity as updated for EEA seas in

2006 • Additional information available from EEA data service for latest figures on aquaculture production

(vales and quantities) from FAO and Fishing fleet and Employment in the fishery sector from Eurostat • Information from EEA SOER2005 and review of latest regional seas state of the environment (SoE)

reports. Information from FAO in their the State of World Fisheries and Aquaculture (SOFIA) 2004 • Case studies on selected species such as sturgeon will be based on review of latest regional seas SoE

reports. Also on development projects (USAID, TACIS) for EECCAS seas 2.3 Invasive alien species (1.5 pages).

• Assessment of trends of marine invasive alien species including impacts and links to eutro-phication and overfishing,

• SEBI2010 indicator on worst marine invasive species. • Case studies on selected marine invasive species e.g. red king crab and Mnemiopsis. Information sources: • SEBI2010 indicator on worst marine invasive alien species supplemented with information from

ETC/Water 2006 activities on invasive species. • Much information on invasive species is available in SoE reports and from international projects Potential overlap to other chapters/sections • Chapter 4 Biodiversity has a section on invasive species. Text will be coordinated

2.4 Climate change (2 pages). • Highlights how the impacts of climate change on coastal and marine ecosystems are worsen-

ing their status by looking at: Arctic ice cover, Russian rivers inflow to the Arctic, sea sur-face temperature, growing season, species composition, tropicalisation, acidification, and sea level rise.

• Illustration on temperature increases (graph) and also link to general circulation issues be-tween the Atlantic and the European sub-artic region

• Table with the climate change trends and outlook for European regional seas • Climate change impacts on marine biology/ecology (e.g. information from Continuous

Plankton Recorder CPR) • Ocean acidification due to increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide Information sources: • Much information on climate change impact on marine waters is available in research projects, EEA

2004 “Impacts” report, JRC 2005 report, SoE reports and the coming IPPC 4th impact assessment. • Information from European Science Foundation Marine Board’s Working Group on Climate Change

Impacts. Also from ICES (“Assessment of possible impacts of climate change on fisheries)

33 PKR/15/05/2006

• SAHFOS information from Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) • Royal Society Report on “Ocean acidification due to increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide”, June

2005. OSPAR “Acidification” Potential overlap to other chapters/sections • Information will be coordinated with Chapter 3 on Climate change • Discharge of Russian rivers will be described in Section 2.3 on Water

2.5 Pollution from radionuclides (1.5 pages). Assessment of concentrations in water (hot spots from any source, e.g. Chernobyl, Sellafield), and also of “risks” from existing pressures - i.e. known current or past nuclear testing grounds (e.g. Chernaya Bay on the southern end of Novaya Zemlya) and submarine bases/ship-repairing yards (e.g. number of nuclear submarines awaiting decommissioning) Information sources: • Much information on radionuclide pollution is available such as AMAP, 2004. AMAP Assessment

2002: Radioactivity in the Arctic, and chapters in SoE reports • Also Bellona Foundation, IAEA Monaco, OECD environmental reviews and UNECE performance

reviews Potential overlap to other chapters/sections • Cross-references with Chapter 2 on Environment and health will be checked

2.6 Pollution from hazardous substances (1.5 pages). • Assessment of heavy metals and POPs, in particular TBT and its substitutes • Heavy metal assessment (in particular “Discharges of hazardous substances to the sea”) in-

cluded to compare with previous assessments and show possible “positive” stories in West-ern seas linked to EU and other regulation.

• “Impacts” (in particular on humans) should be highlighted. Information sources: • EEA indicato on Hazardous substances in biota in transitional, coastal and marine waters as updated

in 2006 • EEA study on “Marine indicator development of antifouling biocides in the environment” • EEA’s 2003 Report on “Hazardous substances in the European marine environment: Trends in metals

and persistent organic pollutants” and other reports such as AMAP, 2004. AMAP Assessment 2002: Persistent Organic Pollutants (POPs) in the Arctic.

• Review of latest regional seas state of the environment (SoE) reports. Potential overlap to other chapters/sections • Cross references with chapter 2 on Environment and health will be checked

2.7 Coastal zone use (4 pages). Assessment of: • Concentration of population and human and natural assets at the coastal zone • Development of coastal zones and related habitat loss • Land based pollution and degradation of coastal zone • Intensification of coastal uses, and • Responses - ICZM and similar initiatives (governance) Information sources: • EEA “The state of coasts” Report. Approach extended to EECCA coasts and supplemented by review

of latest regional seas state of the environment (SoE) reports. Potential overlap to other chapters/sections • Cross-referencing needed for eutrophication and coastal pressures such as tourism that may be cov-

ered by Chapters 4 on Biodiversity and 6 on Natural resources and waste 2.8 Oil pollution/exploration (1 page)

• Assessment of oil pollution across regional seas, including accidental oil spills from marine shipping as well as (illegal) discharges of oil from refineries and offshore installations

• Link to – forecasted - increased oil transport across the region. For example, in the Caspian Sea as required to meet volume of oil to be transported via third pipeline being currently constructed, and problems associated to that (including resulting impact on protected area from where oil is extracted and loaded)

Information sources: • EEA energy indicators: EN14-EU accidental oil tanker spills and EN15-EU (discharge of oil from

refineries and offshore installations

• Review of regional seas SoE reports Potential overlap to other chapters/sections • Cross references with Section 7.1 Energy will be checked

2.9 Shipping (1 page) Assessment of impacts of increased shipping across European/ECCAA seas, including – fore-casted - increased shipping in the Arctic. Information sources: • Some information on trends in and impacts of shipping is available in regional seas SoE reports Potential overlap to other chapters/sections • Cross references with Section 7.1 Energy will be checked

3 Eastern European, Caucasus and Central Asia regional seas: Specific key environmental impacts (4 pages) Main storyline. Situation in seas of relevance for EECCA in relation to key specific issues. One page each for the four EECCA seas: Barents Sea, Black Sea, Caspian Sea, and Russian Arctic similar to the sea profiles in the EEA’s SoER2005. Short descriptions of the seas , general quali-tative assessment of specific regional issues/indicators and quantitative graph or figure high-lighting main issue Issues to be covered in Barents Sea profile • Oil pollution/exploration/transport (main issue to highlight, preferably quantitatively via

graph or figure) • Pollution from radionuclides • Fisheries (overfishing) • Invasive alien species Issues to be covered in Black Sea profile • Land based pollution and eutrophication (main issue to highlight, preferably quantitatively

via graph or figure) • Fisheries (overfishing) • Oil pollution/exploration/transport Issues to be covered in Caspian Sea profile • Fisheries (overfishing) with focus on sturgeon, including illegal (over) fishing • Coastal zone degradation • Oil pollution/exploration/transport Issues to be covered in Russian Arctic profile • Accumulation of hazardous substances, in particular POPs • Oil pollution/exploration/transport Information sources: • Information on the above-mentioned issues is generally available in regional seas state of the envi-

ronment reports and from international institutions and, research/ development aid projects Potential overlap to other chapters/sections • As highlighted in section 2 above

4 Summary, conclusions and recommendations (2 pages) Key aspects to cover • Summary of state and trends of marine and coastal ecosystems across Europe/EECCA, show-

ing how climate change is worsening the situation (i.e. having an impact on the dynamics of regional marine/coastal ecosystems).

• Link, in general terms, to possible effects of human well being and health from impaired ecosystem services in the case of observed/reported impacts

• Re-cap - in general terms – the reasons behind the observed situation, including the suitabil-ity of existing policy frameworks/international agreements for the protection of marine and coastal ecosystems in relation to results of the assessment

• Highlight LME and IRBM as “the” approach for the protection and management of marine and coastal ecosystems and show existing and forthcoming EU policy frameworks that could support LME/IRBM, e.g. EMS/MSD (marine), WFD and others (coastal waters), ICZM and others (coastal zone), Habitats and Birds Directives for MPAs, etc.

• Stress/explain that there are EU and other international processes could support EECCA in

35 PKR/15/05/2006

adopting an LME/IRBM approach for the protection of marine and coastal ecosystems.

7. Chapter 6: Sustainable Consumption & Pro-duction and Waste

Chapter 6 is composed of four sections • Section 6.1: Key messages – introduction (2 pages) • Section 6.2 Production and resource use (up to 10 pages) • Section 6.3: Consumption (up to 10 pages) • Section 6.4: Waste prevention and management (up to 10 pages) The total length is foreseen to be 25 pages. 1. Key messages – introduction (1page)

• Socio-economic changes, driving the significant and rapid changes in consumption and production patterns in Europe lead to environmental and social impacts both in Europe and in other regions of the world. In the European Union, a considerable shift has taken place towards a service economy, which can be expected to be less materials-intensive, thus sup-porting sustainable use of resources.

• EECCA and Balkan countries face several challenges such as poverty eradication, restruc-turing of economies, and supporting more sustainable production and consumption patterns. While a significant part of the population needs access to more and better products and ser-vices to help satisfy basic human needs, problems related to Western-type lifestyle and con-sumption patterns are also increasing.

• On average, production and consumption in the EECCA countries is still below the levels of before 1990. However, after the economic decline during most of the 1990s, several EECCA countries are currently experiencing an average annual economic growth reaching as much as 10%.

• An evolution has taken place from the initial focus of European environmental policies on the state of environmental media (1970s), through control of emissions and end-of-pipe technologies (1980s), and preventive strategies and recycling (1990s) to an integrated ap-proach to consumption and production (2000s).

• Sustainable consumption and production, decoupling of environmental impacts from GDP growth, increasing eco-efficiency, and sustainable resource management are moving up on the policy agenda in the EU. In the EECCA countries and the Balkans, however, work on those issues is at a very early stage.

• It is difficult to identify region-wide problems since the situation differs significantly be-tween individual countries. Moreover, in the EECCA countries, and to a lesser degree in the Balkans, there are big differences between the capital/big cities and the rest of the country.

• In many EECCA and other countries with economies in transition, a large percentage of the population lives in poverty. Compared to two decades ago, the income gap between the rich and the poor has increased. A small rich class has emerged in several countries, with con-sumption patterns characterisitc to industrialised countries.

2. Production and resource use (up to 10 pages) Main storyline. Sustainable Consumption and Production (SCP) is a broad concept, covering a whole range of activities, over the whole life-cycle from resource extraction, through production and consumption, and waste phase for the entire economy. Sustainable resource use requires consideration of availability of resources and security of supplies, safeguarding the reproduc-tive capacities of ecosystems, and maintaining the ability of the environment to act as a ‘sink’ to absorb discharges and emissions of pollutants. • One of policy approaches in the European Union is to focus on sector-specific activities

(‘core activities’) contributing most to increased resource use and environmental impacts. • In EECCA countries, the situation varies strongly from country to country, and region to

region. In the Balkans (SEE) the main sources of environmental problems are mining, energy production, chemical industry, and agriculture.

Information sources/illustrations (examples):

37 PKR/15/05/2006

• Reference to CML Leiden and IPTS studies (on DG Environment website) • BOX. Case stories from EECCA and the Balkan countries on environmental impacts related to sector-

specific activities, and how these impacts have been/can be reduced. 2.1 Trend in material consumption and environmental impact

Although decoupling of environmental impacts from resource use is inherently difficult to meas-ure, there are indications that a decrease in absolute resource and material consumption results in lower impacts on the environment. Information sources/illustrations: • Domestic material consumption EEA, No 9, 2005 and Voet et. al, 2005) • Data for the three aggregates (Global Warming Potential, GWP, Acidification, and Tropospheric

Ozone Forming Potential, TOFP) are available for at least EU25 at the EEA (http://dataservice.eea.eu.int/dataservice/metadetails.asp?id=818).

2.2 Decoupling of resource use from economic growth, and resource productivity Relative decoupling of resource use from economic growth (resource productivity expressed e.g., as constant dollars or euro of GDP/kg) has been achieved in some areas in the EU-25. This includes energy and material consumption compared with GDP. The situation in the EECCA countries is less clear, due to the lack of data. Some of the apparent improvements in resource productivity should be seen in connection with global trade. EU countries increasingly import raw materials, semi-processed products and final products, whereas the EECCA countries tend to export natural resources and raw materi-als to a larger degree. This may lead to a geographical shift of environmental burdens to the EECCA countries and other regions of the world. Policy makers recognize the need for a better integration of resource use and production con-cerns with other policies. The most effective mix of policy instruments may include a combina-tion of regulatory instruments and market-based incentives. Economic instruments supported by information are often the most effective short-term way of achieving better resource efficiency. Information sources/illustrations (examples): • Increasing export of resources (oil, gas, metals and wood timber) in the past 10 years from the

EECCA countries to EU/EU15 etc. (similar to figure 2.0.8 in 3rd assessment and figure 3.5 in EEA report No 9/2005). Alternatively, energy carriers trade statistics could be used.

• EU-15 imports from EU-10 and candidate countries through a time-series to analyse enlargement impacts.

• BOX. Some of the EECCA countries are at risk of becoming single-engine economies. Change in the share of branches in Gross Industrial Product in selected EECCA countries shows that several coun-tries have switched to more material-intensive, resource-exporting industries. As they have to com-pete in the global market, they become more and more efficient, which is fuelled by privatisation. As a result, their share in the country's economy continues to rise, often at the expense of other sectors. Examples could include the Russian oil sector, or Azerbaijan and Tajikistan petroleum exports, which are rapidly growing with negative impact on environment. (table 1. in Aleg Cherp and R.Mnatsakanian: Environmental degradation in EECCA: Past roots, present transitionand future hopes, 2003).

• BOX on e.g. aggregate taxes in UK, Sweden, Baltic countries and Denmark versus resource con-sumption.

• BOX. Case story on how economic instruments on pollution and natural resources have been used in the Baltic countries to finance environmental investments (NORDIC funds, environmental funds).

• BOX. Case story on the application of economic instruments on pollution and extraction of resources in the EECCA countries. UNECE´s Environmental Performance Reviews Programme of for example Belarus and Moldova.

• BOX. Assessment of development in sustainable production in Belarus, Moldova and Tajikistan, based on Environmental Performance Review.

• BOX. Development of sustainable production in the Balkan. 3. Consumption (up to 10 pages) 3.1 General Trends and Characteristics of Consumption

Consumption patterns in the pan-European regions have changed significantly in recent dec-ades and are expected to continue to change. They vary considerably across the countries and regions. Among the significant changes in the many economic, social and cultural factors that drive consumption patterns in Europe are the globalisation of the world economy, rapid spread of new technologies such as the internet and the mobile phone, ageing of populations, decreas-

ing household sizes in some countries, individualisation of societies and new methods of market-ing and advertising, such as internet advertising and product placement in movies and TV pro-grammes. • Total household consumption expenditure in the EU15 countries is at much higher levels than

in the new 10 EU Member States, which in turn is generally higher than in the Balkan and EECCA countries. There are also large differences in the composition of final household con-sumption expenditure, with EU25 countries having a relatively large share of their total expen-diture on goods and services such as health, recreation, culture and dining out, and transporta-tion and communication, while EECCA and SEE countries in general spend a larger, but de-clining, share on more basic goods such as food and drink, clothing and housing. In all EECCA countries the percentage of household expenditure spent on basic goods increased be-tween 1994 and 1998, but has been falling again steadily since 1999.

Information source/illustrations: • Trends in overall household consumption expenditure by country 1990 to most recent year available, in

constant dollars (2000 value) (World Bank statisticss) • Trends in household expenditure per capita 1994-2004 by specific consumption good categories, (repre-

sentative countries or weighted averages from EU15, EU10, EECCA, Balkan groups) (World Bank data, GEO data, graphs from SCORE Workshop 20-21 April 2006)

• EU-25 populations are stable in number, but ageing, with decreasing household sizes but increasing house sizes. EECCA countries are split between those showing increasing population and generally sta-ble or increasing household sizes and those showing decreasing populations and decreasing household size.

3.2 Footprint of European consumption Environmental impacts of consumption in Europe occur not only in European countries, but also to a large extent in other regions of the world from resources extraction, production and transportation of goods and services eventually consumed in Europe. Impacts of current con-sumption levels per capita in the EU-15 as measured using available indicators such as the ecological footprint, exceed the bio-capacity of the earth divided by the global population. Eco-logical footprints of SEE and EECCA countries are currently much smaller. . Should the whole region take on the consumption patterns of western European countries, the ecological footprint of the region would exceed the total area by a factor X.x. Information sources/illustrations: • Comparison of ecological footprint for EU-15, EU-10, EECCA and SEE countries • Comparison of ecological footprint with bio-capacity

3.3 Selected Consumption areas and their environmental impacts Focus is on those categories of consumption with highest or fastest growing impacts on the environment: food and drinks; housing activities; mobility and tourism. • Food: Providing basic food and beverages remains a challenge in some countries, and envi-

ronmental impacts are therefore a lower priority. In the EU-15, overall spending on food and drink is stable (the share of total spending is declining), but indirect environmental impacts from production are still large. In EECCA countries the share of household spending on food and drink increased between 1994 and 1999 during the period of steeply falling GDP. Impacts of food consumption are linked to food and packaging waste, impacts from transportation of food, but mostly food production (energy, fertiliser use/ land use/ pesticides etc) in agriculture and industry.

• Housing: Inefficient heating systems in ECCAA countries: no localised control of heat output, poorly maintained and insulated distribution pipes; little house insulation. Heating still large share of consumption related to housing in EU25. In EU countries, house insulation increased over last 30 years in many countries. However, this has also been accompanied by a rebound effect - average house temperatures also increased offsetting increased insulation. Also ineffi-cient water public water supply systems in many countries: leaking of pipes, no metering, no water pricing instruments used.

• Mobility, tourism and recreation: Personal transport growing with GDP in EU15 countries. In EU10, EECCA and Balkan countries growth is more rapid as GDP growth is generally higher. Emissions of greenhouse gases from personal transport is a growing contributor to climate change. While the EU-15 has important tourist destinations (6 out of top 10 world destinations)

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visitor numbers are relatively stable. The Balkans and Turkey and most EU-10 countries meanwhile have sharply increasing tourism numbers, and consequently increasing pressures on the local environment. Tourism to most EECCA countries is currently small but in certain countries is increasing (Ukraine, Russia).

Information sources/illustrations: • EEA report on “Household consumption and the environment”; SCORE project on sustainable con-

sumption, OECD report “Towards sustainable household consumption, UNEP reports on sustainable consumption.

• Time series share of food consumption in total household consumption (CIS database) • Trend in heating and electricity consumption per year related to housing for EU-15, EU-10, EECCA

and Balkans (Unit consumption per dwelling. Source www.ceec-indicators.org and www.odysse-indicators.org)

• Trends in PC/internet access/mobile phones per 1000 inhabitants • Trends and distribution of energy use by households (EU25, EECCA, Balkans) • Increased car ownership in EECCA and Balkan countries per 1000 inhabitants • Emissions of air pollutants from personal transport (EU25, EECCA, Balkans) • WTO Tourism flows and growth in share of tourism in GDP • Tourist/host population ratio. • Increased emissions of CO2 from air traffic in Europe • Water use, energy use and waste generation at destination. • Eco-Tourism initiatives in Kazakhstan, Kirgyzstan and Tajikistan

3.4 Options for more sustainable consumption Improved technology is a necessary but not sufficient condition for sustainable consumption. Consumption growth outweighs technology-based efficiency gains in electrical goods, private cars etc. in the EU-25. As a result, energy consumption is on the increase. The story is similar for a number of EECCA countries. Public authorities, business and consumers have comple-mentary and interdependent roles to play in ensuring more sustainable consumption patterns. • Public authorities provide the framework within which business and consumers operate.

• Removal of environmentally harmful subsidies and taxing resource use and environmentally harmful activities, and labelling of environmentally friendly goods and services are among the options available.

• Business are key to ensuring more sustainable production, both in Europe and in their supply chains in other regions of the world.

• Consumers can make more sustainable choices given that sufficient information is available and that sustainable goods and services are affordable and accessible.

• In EECCA countries, labelling and consumer information on environmental impacts is low. In addition charging by utilities to encourage conservation of water/heat/electricity etc. has a number of obstacles. On the other hand traditional practices in EECCA which are inherently more sustainable i.e. low use of pesticides, fertilisers, markets in locally grown foods etc. should be encouraged.

Information source/illustrations/: • Examples of legal instruments in place in EU25, EECCA and Balkan countries • Examples of effective economic instruments (water pricing, waste taxes, energy taxes). From EEA

policy effectiveness studies on waste water treatment, packaging waste, aggregates taxes and land-fill/incineration and from EEA report on household consumption and the environment

• BOX on electricity and water consumption charging in Estonia/Moldova/Belarus leading to reduced consumption (UNECE EPR)

• BOX on Bosnia/Herzegovina municipalities of Breza and Tesanj public awareness campaign to im-prove water/electricity tax collection rates (UNECE EPR)

Potential overlap to other chapters/sections • Poverty related to water and energy use (section 2.3 and section 7.3)

4. Waste prevention and management Main storyline: Waste is a source of pollution because of the emission of hazardous substances to air, water and groundwater. However, waste is also a loss of resources. Therefore, sound waste management policies can contribute both to the conservation of scarce natural resources and to protecting the quality of the environment, thus effectively contributing to sustainable development.

4.1 General trends of waste generation in the EU, the EECCA countries and the Balkans • Waste amounts are increasing and are expected to continue to increase, although relative de-

coupling of waste quantities from GDP has been observed for a number of waste streams in many countries.

• There are problems with different definitions of waste and hazardous waste as well as with the data quality in the entire pan-European region. Comparison between the EU and the EECCA countries is therefore difficult.

Information source/illustration: • Development the past 10 years in total waste generation per capita in EU-25 and in selected

EECCA countries (those for which data was available also for Kiev report). • Development the past 10 years in total generation/collection of municipal waste per capita in

EU, the Balkans and in the EECCA countries. • Development the past 10 years in hazardous waste generation in EU, the Balkans and the

EECCA countries. • Trends or BOX (past 10 years) for other waste streams if possible for EU25, EECCA and Bal-

kan countries (packaging waste, industrial waste, manufacturing waste construction and demolition waste).

• Outlooks for waste generation to 2020 for EU15 and EU10 (6 waste streams). - EEA • Outlooks for municipal waste generation in selected EECCA countries - EEA • In certain periods in EU decoupling of total waste generation versus GDP and decoupling of

waste generation in manufacturing industry versus GDP. Source: Wastebase, Eurostat, DG ENV, UNSD

4.2 Hazardous waste problems in EECCA countries and the Balkans Proper registration and management of hazardous waste is still a challenge in the EECCA coun-tries and the Balkan countries and both regions lack resources for hazardous waste management. Information sources/illustrations: • Environment and Security: Transforming risks into cooperation - Central Asia - Ferghana / Osh / Khu-

jand area. UNEP, 2005 www.envsec.org/centasia/index.php#pub) • Hazardous waste stocks (e.g. banned substances, military stockpiles, industrial sites waiting for reme-

diation, etc.) • BOX. 20 billion tons of waste from mining industry (non-ferrous metal industry) in East Kazakhstan • BOX. Georgia: hazardous waste from mines, chemical and metallurgy plants and 300 military sites,

which are not in function. But the wastes are still at the sites. • BOX: Pesticides waste in Ukraine and other EECCA countries. • Assessment of progress in introduction of principles of the Basel Convention into national legislation in

the EECCA and the Balkan countries 4.3 Waste prevention is insufficient; landfilling is still dominant

According to the waste management hierarchy, described in EU waste policy, the sequence of options is prevention, re-use, recycling, incineration with energy recovery and finally landfilling of waste. Landfilling is still the cheapest and the most common waste management option in a majority of countries. Information source/illustration: • UN SD 2006 data ? • Note on landfill directive requiring pre-treatment before landfilling and reduction of biode-

gradable municipal waste going to landfills. Differentiation between EU-15/EU-10/EECCA/Balkan is desirable

• Total waste amounts in EU sent to recycling and recovery compared to landfill and other man-agement options (Wastebase, Eurostat, European Commission)

• Total waste amounts of municipal waste to landfill in EU and if possible selected Balkan and EECCA countries/regions (Wastebase, Eurostat, European Commission, UNSD)

4.4 Waste as a resource There has been a policy shift the last 10-15 years in the EU, whereby waste is increasingly seen as a resource and waste prevention and recovery as a way of saving resources. • The recognition of waste as a resource is reflected by increasing world trade in certain waste

streams, and high market prices for certain waste materials (e.g., scrap steel, coloured metals).

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When considering waste as a resource, there is no general agreement on whether incineration with energy recovery should be seen as complementary or contradictory to recycling.

• In the EECCA countries, the main current challenge is ensuring proper collection and handling of waste in an environmentally safe manner. Several of the EECCA countries have formulated waste management plans and programmes, but general lack of resources is a significant barrier to their implementation.

Information sources/illustrations • Development in EU in amounts and rates of packaging waste recycled/recovered/disposed (Sources:

ETC/RWM indicator; EEA report). • Trade statistics, EUWID recycling and management). • Overview of policy development of national waste strategies in the EECCA countries and the Balkan

since 2000. 4.5 Existing and new tools supporting political decisions on waste management

Political decisions on specific waste types should not be based only on applying the general principles of the waste hierarchy. It is important to identify (and present) effective instruments for implementing waste policies and regulation. These conclusions may also be useful for the EECCA countries and the Balkans, since these countries are expected to face similar chal-lenges. Information sources: • EEA study: “Effectiveness of packaging waste management systems in selected countries: an EEA pilot

study, 2005” • EEA / ETC/RWM study (under development): Evaluation of policies promoting waste prevention and

recovery. A survey on the implementation of the Landfill directive • Conclusions from the EEA / ETC/RWM study: “Review of waste management planning in EEA mem-

ber countries, 2005”

8. Chapter 7: Sector integration

Chapter 7 is composed of 4-5 sections • Section 7.0: Key messages – introduction (1 page) • Section 7.1: Energy (ca 10 pages) • Section 7.2: Transport (8-10 pages) • Section 7.3: Agriculture (ca 10 pages) • Section 7.4:

8.1. Section 7.1 Energy (ca 10 pages)

1. Introduction (0.5 page) Main question: what happened since the period covered in the Kiev report? Major developments in the energy sector in EU as well as EECCA and Balkan countries with

a focus on the period after 1999; shared broad energy policy objectives in the EU (e.g. 6 EAP; green paper on EU energy policy) and EECCA/Balkan regions (e.g. EECCA environ-mental strategy; Russian energy strategy); Kyoto in force and post 2010 discussion

Mentioning of concerns on energy security and closer collaboration between EU and EECCA to ensure a stable energy supply.

Access to affordable energy on the household level is an important issue in the EECCA re-gions (but not in the EU). It relates to pricing, deterioration or existence of infrastructure (discussed later-on). Poverty dimension, rural-urban dimension in the EECCA.

Key messages (0.5 page) Energy security is a new post kyiv challenge. We now face the twin challenges of envi-

ronmental protection versus energy security; the chapter can explore key elements of synergies and counter-acting interests of the two.

Interdependence of pan-european energy systems and infrastructure. For example, the im-

pact of the planned EU fuel switch on EECCA energy policies Energy efficiency is an issue: much more focus in EU policy lately; in EECCA artificial

improvement in energy intensity due to restructuring and decrease in GDP, hard to say whether will continue; link to energy supply security in some EECCA countries

Renewables are an issue in both EU and EECCA (especially small scale local renewables), but in EECCA countries priority is on energy efficiency.

Chronic under-investment / need of investment into energy infrastructure and possibility of guiding investment in a way that it supports energy efficiency improvements.

2. Energy consumption (level of consumption, fuel mix, efficiency) (3 pages) Energy consumption has been decreasing in some regions of EECCA while it increased in oth-ers. However, this trend has changed in recent years with the economic recovery of some of the countries, and it is likely that there will be a continued growth in the future. Electricity consump-tion rose even faster. Without any changes in the fuel mix or technologies, this will lead to in-creasing environmental pressures. This indicates that both specific emissions but also energy demand will have to be reduced. There is still substantial scope for reducing energy efficiency in all the regions mentioned here. Increasing the share of combined heat and power generation and replacing old power plants are one promising option; improving appliances and building insulation another one. Sub-issues • Trends in total energy consumption/electricity production by fuels in the different regions

over time; nuclear will not be highlighted but discussed thoroughly. Outlooks to be included • Development in the share of renewable energy sources to total energy consump-

tion/production and electricity consumption/production in 1990 and 2003 • Trends in specific emissions of energy/electricity consumption • Development of final energy consumption by sector and region • Box on energy import/export between EECCA and EU and its development over time and in

future to show the interdependence between the regions. • Box on clean coal technologies – major reductions in energy-related air pollutant emissions

are due to abatement techniques, and carbon capture might be a promising option, in particu-lar with regard to increased reliance on coal (link to energy security

Information sources: • Information sources for energy data: EEA CSI 027 Final energy consumption by sector, CSI

029 Total energy consumption by fuel, underlying data from CSI 030 Renewable energy con-sumption. Supplemented with additional information from Eurostat and IEA

• EECCA revised CSI final energy consumption: total and by sector, total energy consumption: total and by fuel; and total energy intensity; Supplemented with additional information from IEA.

• Information sources for projections: EEA Outlook report and report 1/2005, IEA World En-ergy Outlook

• Information sources for box on coal technologies: IEA clean coal center, JRC Petten Potential overlap to other chapters/sections • Clear link to chapters on climate change, transport and air pollution

3. Environmental impacts of energy production and consumption (3 pages) CO2 emissions from energy production and consumption account for the majority of GHG emis-sions in all regions, with an increasing trend. This will need to be addressed if future targets are to be met. Air pollutant emissions declined substantially, particularly in WE. Much of this im-provement was due to abatement techniques in power generation (ref to section 2.2) and cars in the EU, while in the EECCA region, this is more closely linked to reduced energy demand. There still remains much to be done in the EECCA countries. In addition, energy production, conver-sion and distribution require land and can contribute to fragmentation of habitats. Transporta-tion of oil and gas bears the risk of oil pollution either from pipeline accidents or oil tanker spills and offshore installations This should be mentioned and set into context with the planned/expected increase in pipelines between EECCA and EU to satisfy EU’s gas demand. The environmental impacts of energy production are much more prominent in the EECCA than in the EU region, and should be highlighted. Sub-issues

43 PKR/15/05/2006

• Climate change: development of GHG/CO2 emissions from energy production and con-sumption in different regions and outlooks

• Air pollution with a focus on energy-related emissions of acidifying substances by region and over time; outlooks if possible

• Land-use and environmental impacts of energy production such as mining waste, landscape degradation etc.

• Box including Case Study on environmental impacts of energy infrastructure and extraction (BTC pipeline; e.g. Kazakhstan examples above).

• Box on the trade-off between potential impacts of bioenergy use on biodiversity and soil and water versus GHG emissions reduction, if bioenergy production is not managed in a sustain-able way.

Information sources • Information sources for GHG/CO2 emissions: EEA CSI 010 Greenhouse gas emissions and

removals, EEA EERM 01,02, EECCA CSI greenhouse gas emissions; additional information IEA

• Information sources for projections: EEA Outlook report and report 1/2005, IEA World En-ergy Outlook

• Information sources for box case study on environmental impacts of extraction : Use NERI-GRID-Arendal consortium as a starting point and national agencies

• Information sources for box bioenergy: EEA bioenergy work (forthcoming report) and exist-ing literature from EECCA countries

Potential overlap to other chapters/sections • Clear link to chapters on climate change and air pollution; via bioenergy and land use also to

agriculture, water, forestry • Ch. 5 on marine may contain information on oil exploitation

4. Policy prospect (3 p) Summary of the current and upcoming challenges, which may actually differ between the re-gions: energy supply security (being understood differently in Russia and EU), environmental impacts (again: GHG important in all regions, while oil spills, mining waste, methane leakage probably more important in the EECCA). Opportunities for integration of energy and environment, based on EU Cardiff strategy and EECCA/Balkan environmental strategy. Major investment needs open up a window of opportu-nity which could be used for investment in cleaner energy (supported by JI/CDM). Use case studies to show good practice in EECCA, but also to highlight that solutions found for the EU may have important trade-offs in EECCA countries (price increases versus access to affordable energy). Sub-issues • Energy efficiency improvements and energy savings are a robust element to tackle most

concerns; high on the agenda in EU and EECCA (and energy charter). Case study (box) on the CARDS project on restructuring and business planning for the Serbian Energy Efficiency Agency.

• There is a tremendous need for investment. This may be used to direct funds into more sus-tainable energy technologies and efficiency (link to CDM?). On the other hand, with regards to the overall lack of investment into energy, it will be interesting to see whether environ-mental needs are cut first?

• Renewables are another important way to reduce energy import dependency (for EU) and mitigate climate change. Potentially less important in EECCA, but high natural potential

• Getting the prices right as subsidies still distort the market, particularly in EECCA, and stimulate demand. Experience of new member states can be used. There is social perspec-tive/ tensions. Case study inserted as box. This will need to also address how to tackle fuel poverty (if available, case study will be in-cluded in a box).

• Energy security and inter-regional energy partnership as the energy import dependency of EU is increasing substantially. It is expected that most of the natural gas imports will come from Russia. On the other hand, there are other EECCA countries and probably China being interested in Russian gas, but the COM and 25 partners recently signed the first energy

community treaty • Planning and Environmental Impact Assessment Information sources • investment needs: IEA; World Bank; Regional development banks • access to energy and energy poverty: World Bank; OECD • Reports by the World Bank, SPECA (CAsia) , Regional Development Banks • NERI-GRID-Arendal consortium • FCO briefing material • CARDS: though the AEA-Technology project partner Potential overlap to other chapters/sections • Link to climate change chapter (CDM) and other sector’s responses

8.2. Section 7.2: Transport (8-10 pages)

1. Introduction (0.5 pages) Main question: what happened since the period covered in the Kiev report? Transport is an integrated element of a modern lifestyle, and access to a modern transportation system is an aspiration for all states covered by this analysis. But the use of transport has an im-pact on the environment. Environmental concerns must be seen as an attempt to improve the transport system, rather than an attempt to fight the system. Therefore the chapter will focus mainly on the policy tools that can be used to both make the system more efficient and cleaner. Key messages (0.5 pages) • Transports contribution to greenhouse gas emissions is growing in all countries and thus is

making GHG abatement aims more difficult to meet, not matter what target a country may have.

• Fuel prices are kept very low in some of the EECCA countries contributing to an unsustain-able use of energy resources in the transport sector.

• Cleaner technology is gradually spreading in the EECCA countries with some delay com-pared to EU members, but nevertheless spreading.

• External costs of transport can be estimated roughly to ... in EECCA countries. 2. Transport growth (1-2 pages)

Transport volume growth is to a large extent a reflection of economic growth because most of the activities included in measurements of economic growth have a transport component. Trans-port volumes have been growing for this reason and are likely to continue to do so. Only to the extent that abatement technologies improve faster and are taken up by the market at a high rate, will the impacts of transport decrease. With the aim of improving the environment and reduce CO2 emissions EU has set itself the tar-get of decoupling transport volume growth from economic growth. This has not happened and EU is starting to re-examine this aim in the context of the review of the common transport policy. It may be relevant for EECCA countries to learn from this experience, wherefore the debate will be described, and lessons learned from the new EU member states will be mentioned. Transport modal split is important for average emissions because different transport modes have different levels of emissions. The general trend (must be verified) is a shift towards less clean modes of transport, thus negating further some of the improvements achieved by technology. Information sources: • Annual bulletin of transport statistics for Europe and North America. UNECE. 2005 version

with data up to 2002 is available in the data service. As soon as 2006 version becomes avail-able we can update the data tables. This is unlikely to change anything in the assessment. Note: There are significant gaps in UNECE data set, especially regarding Russia, Turkmeni-stan and Uzbekistan. In addition no data for air transport.

• EECCA CSI size and composition of vehicle fleet; passenger transport demand by mode ; average age of the vehicle fleet; freight transport demand by mode

• Supplementary data can be taken from IEA energy dataset with data up to 2003 already avail-able in the data service, which include modal breakdown

Potential overlap to other chapters/sections

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• -- 3. Environmental impacts of transport (2-3 pages)

Transport has a wide range of impacts. This chapter is mainly descriptive in order to get the scale of impacts stated:

• Greenhouse gas emissions grow in parallel with energy consumption. Almost all trans-port fuels are based on fossil oil, so shift between these have little impact on overall emissions (contrary to the energy sector).

o The analysis will be supplemented with EEA figures on the split between differ-ent gasses (97% CO2).

o Information on the use of biofuels in EU will be used as an illustration of a CO2 emission abatement strategy.

o The link to long term strategies for deep cuts in emissions will be mentioned with reference to the climate change chapter of this report. This could possibly be as a textbox illustrating that also transport has to do its part of the reduction.

• Air and noise emissions in the EEA member countries are falling as a result of ever stricter emission standards. Nevertheless the CAFE program has estimated that 370.000 people die prematurely in EU as a result of air pollution. Noise emissions are not yet covered with quantitative data, but will be from 2007 following a new directive on noise monitoring.

• Accidents is a focus area for EU and it has set it self the target of reducing the number of fatalities by 50% between 2000 and 2010. At the moment there is a strong reduction in fatalities in some countries, and a few countries have now almost met the 2010 target. Also the numbers for EECCA countries are encouraging with a healthy development in the number of fatalities. Sporadic information on safety programs, especially in Russia is available and can be used for extension. A textbox on the impact of strict speed limit en-forcement is a possibility e.g. based on data from Sweden.

• Infrastructure and biodiversity: Transport infrastructure is being expanded which is al-lowing easier access to many places, but also segmenting previously un-segmented re-gions.

Information sources • Greenhouse gasses: The Kiev report was based on data from IEA, which is available in the

data service as well with data up to 2003. A few small countries are missing. Biofuels data can be taken form EEA reports, e.g. the TERM report, but will only cover EEA countries.

• Air and noise emissions: The Kiev report only contained information on EEA members, and as far as I can see we are still in the same situation, with less we get some information out of the upcoming studies. The EEA information is already available within the context of TERM fact sheets. We may however be able to use proxy variables based on composition of the fleet in case we can get access to information on implemented standards for new vehicles. Coupled with information on vehicle sales from UNECE we can analyse the trends.

• Accidents: Statistics of road traffic accidents from UNECE, 2005 is already available in the data service. Data up to 2003. When the 2006 update becomes available we can add extra data, which is unlikely to change trends. EECCA CSI road traffic accidents, mortality and in-jury rate

• TERM provides information for the EEA member countries. UNECE road transport statistics provides information on infrastructure lengths in EECCA countries. Not all EECCA countries are well covered by data.

Potential overlap to other chapters/sections • Under greenhouse gasses there are strong links to the energy chapter and the climate change

chapter (ch. 3). • Under the air emissions and noise there are strong links to the air quality section (ch. 2.2). • Under accidents there is a potential overlap to the health section (ch. 2.1)

4. Policy prospect (3 pages) A number of policy options are available to address the problems created by the transport sys-tem. These range from technology via planning measures to taxation issues. • Cleaner vehicles and fuels: The most effective policy in fighting emissions so far has been

vehicle emission standards. This includes both standards on emission for different classes of

vehicles (Euro standards) as well as regulation on cleaner fuels (zero-sulphur, lead free) to al-low certain after treatment technologies to work. On greenhouse gas emissions a shift to low carbon fuels such as biofuels is an option that is starting to be explored in EU. The EU set of norms have been taken up by other countries and serve today as an international reference. Also some of the EECCA countries are implementing the same standards, among them Rus-sia. This is causing problems for local manufactures (Lada), and policies to address their competitiveness may be needed to avoid opposition to environmental legislation. The lesson form the new EU member states is that close collaboration with Western auto makers have been a key to success for the companies that have survived (mainly Skoda). This section can include a text box on the pro and cons of different alternative fuels.

• Infrastructure investments: Infrastructure investment is an important determinant of the de-velopment in transport modal split. Investments happen at many levels of administration, wherefore it is almost impossible to get a complete overview. Therefore infrastructure length can be used as a proxy.

• Fuel taxes: Fuel tax is one way to internalize part of the climate effect of burning transport fuel, but taxes vary widely across Europe. Some countries sell fuel below production cost, whereas others have very high taxation rates. But it is important to see prices also in compari-son to income levels. Also the aspect of de-taxation of certain cleaner fuels such as biofuels is being discussed in some European countries.

• Internalisation of external costs: External costs are estimated at 8% of GDP in EU countries. In spite of this only limited use of pricing to recover this cost has been made. Examples are congesting charging in London, Heavy Vehicle Fee in Switzerland, etc. Because only little in-formation is available it could be useful to break down the cost figures on components (acci-dents, emission related, etc.). With this a very rough estimate (Much higher, higher, similar, lower, much lower) can be given for most of the EECCA countries, or at least country groups.

• Voluntary agreements: The auto industry is now halfway towards the 2008 target of 140 g CO2 per km. Studies indicate that industry will not make it, but will come close. The interest-ing angle would be to look at the trickle down effect of these technologies in EECCA coun-tries. The collection of standards EURO norms does not directly address this issue, but forces a technology development, where application of new technology would also entail improve-ments in energy consumption.

Information sources • Cleaner vehicles and fuels: There is a need for further information on the implemented vehi-

cle and fuel standards in EECCA countries if this report is go beyond the scope of the Kiev report, which was quite general in its mentioning of these issues. So far only data from Russia has been obtained.

• Infrastructure investments: Infrastructure length can be used as a proxy. This is available from UNECE transport statistics. ECMT/OECD is expected to publish new data on infra-structure investment in member countries, but it is uncertain when the data will be available.

• Fuel taxes: Data from GTZ is available in the data service covering all countries with price levels of November 2004.

• Internalisation of external costs: I have no knowledge of studies covering the EECCA region. EEA countries are well covered by TERM. The break down is a theoretical exercise, where transport densities and accident rates will be needed. This is available form data sets already collected and mentioned above.

• Voluntary agreements: Data on vehicle sales are available, but not on the specific models sold in EECCA countries. I am investigating if any studies on the effect is available e.g. from the vehicle manufactures association.

Potential overlap to other chapters/sections •

8.3. Section 7.3: Agriculture (ca 10 pages)

1. Introduction (0.5 pages) Main question: what happened since the period covered in the Kiev report?

47 PKR/15/05/2006

Farming as a key sector for the use (+ over-exploitation) of important natural resources: wa-ter and soils.

Intensification and rural marginalisation as important drivers in different parts of Europe and the EECCA countries

Importance of agriculture for landscape and biological diversity in Europe. Emergence of agriculture as a provider of services other than food (nature management, bio-

energy – in the west so far..). Development of agriculture (policy) in different groups of countries (W. Europe, eastern

Europe/Balkans, EECCA); significance of EU enlargement and other political shifts. [Expected] key messages (0.5 pages) The (over-)exploitation of water resources by agriculture remains a key environmental

issue, in particular in the south and east of the region The use of inputs (fertilisers and pesticides) is stable or declining in most EU-15 countries,

declined strongly after 1990 in the east and is now increasing again from a low base Intensification and abandonment of agriculture can be detrimental to landscape and bio-

logical diversity on farmland; intensification is the main threat in fertile regions whereas abandonment affects marginal farmland in the south and east in particular [over-use of local resources can still be found in ex Soviet Union countries it seems]

Bio-energy production is an increasingly important land-use in the EU-15; the demand for biomass for energy production will increase in many other countries as well (if only for ex-port..)

The policy framework varies substantially across the region, from significant support in the EU-25 to far fewer public instruments in the EECCA; similarly agri-environmental poli-cies are stronger in the EU than in most other countries

2. Agricultural trends and related environmental pressures (3 pages) Fertiliser and pesticide consumption are still very relevant; new FAO + ECPA data would allow an update by 4-6 years which would be substantial. IRENA data show that in the EU-15 the use of fertilisers and manure has become more efficient; in the new EU-10 or the EECCA fertiliser use is going up again after the slump of the 1990s. Pesticide consumption went up overall in the EU-15 during the 1990s; this may now be reversed; trends in other country groups to be re-viewed carefully. We did write quite extensively about the danger from old pesticide stockpiles in the Kiev report; I guess this situation should be reviewed. Irrigated area is a key indicator for the pressures from agriculture on water resources; we should try to make the most of this, also in the light of potential climate change impacts. A related box could explore the possible revival of old, or building of new efficient irrigation systems in the EU-10 + BU + ROM. We could also see whether the new Turkish colleagues could help devel-oping a box on irrigation in Turkey where this is a very big issue. Livestock numbers tell us about potential nutrient pressures and also about the risk of land aban-donment, so we should review them again. Looking at cattle and pigs separately could be possi-bility. Cattle would link to the management of biodiversity and high nature value farmland (see below). Pig numbers are a link to water pollution risks from agriculture. Far better would it be, however, to have data on gross nutrient balance, an EEA core set indica-tor. So far we have this only for the EU-15 + OECD member countries; work at Eurostat and the EEA may deliver this indicator for the EU-25 (or even BU + ROM). The most we could expect on gross nutrient balance for the other countries would be proxy estimates, to be generated by EEA staff in IDS (if possible). A potential alternative for W. Europe could be a map on agricul-tural nutrient pressures for the EU-25 that is being finalised at the JRC. This still leaves the EECCA countries out in the cold, but I suspect that due to lower overall livestock numbers and mineral fertiliser consumption risk of point source pollution from intensive pig or poultry instal-lations or from poor slurry handling is actually the more relevant issue there. To be checked! We did cover soil erosion in the report on ‘Agriculture and environment in the EU accession

countries’ - I am not aware whether newer sources of data are available, in particular for the EECCA countries – this should be explored. Trends in land cover could help to explore the question of soil erosion risks, and are also rele-vant with regard to water quality and biodiversity issues. However, I expect that such data are not available for the Balkan and EECCA countries at least. Information sources:

• GEO-4 and FAOSTAT for general agricultural trends • FAO + ECPA data for use of fertilisers and pesticides, irrigation data • OECD and Eurostat data for gross nutrient balance • EIONET water and UN-ECE reports for exploitation of water resources • Past EEA reports: IRENA, A & E in EU accession countries • Use of CSI 25 + 26: gross nutrient balance and organic farming

Potential overlap with other chapters/sections • Clear link to chapters on water and biodiversity

3. Environmental impacts of agriculture (3 pages) Some of the environmental impacts of agriculture will probably be covered more in the thematic chapters, so to be decided what to report on in this chapter. The final division of labour may lead to the agriculture chapter focussing more on pressures than on impacts. The question of soil erosion should be covered but suffers from data limitations. This is still the main obstacle to treating this important issue in more detail -> possibility of including more on soil erosion to be explored (this may not succeed). I suspect that water quantity and water quality will both be dealt with in the water chapter, so the focus of this chapter is probably more on agricultural pressures. Biodiversity (and HNV farmland): The dichotomy between intensive agriculture destroying biodiversity and traditional agriculture maintaining it should be explained. I propose to present the issue under the umbrella HNV farmland (commitment by ministers in Kiev declaration to identify HNV farmland by 2006, get a substantial proportion of it under ‘sus-tainable management’ by 2008). HNV farmland issues are likely to be covered in the biodiver-sity chapter. I could imagine describing the system characteristics of HNV farming systems (and current negative trends) in the agriculture chapter, and state of and benefits of HNV farmland for biodiversity in the biodiversity chapter. Thus again we would discuss more general trends in farming than specific environmental impacts. Information sources • IRENA indicators and CSI25 Nutrient balances • EECCA indicators CSI23 Fertilizer consumption; CSI24 Pesticide consumption; CSI19 Area

affected by soil erosion Potential overlap to other chapters/sections • Clear link to chapters on water and biodiversity; via bioenergy and climate change also to the

energy and climate change chapters 4. Policy responses (3 pages)

The main points that were developed in the Kiev report on policy response are still valid. We could now try to be more explicit in terms of assessing the policy response in the EU-25, but mainly linked to biodiversity if we want to include actual data (making use of IRENA reports and the EEA report on A & E in EU accession countries). The latter report gives information on the differential support for rural development measures (euro per ha) for old and new Member States; we could review this figure and its implications and show what the last EU budget deci-sions mean (rural development budget cuts). Very little of that sort exists in the EECCCA and Balkan countries; this to be mentioned as a possible area for aid from external (western) sources? Rural development money and other support is also important for HNV farming systems. Policy response options for managing the use of water by agriculture need to be explored; in the EU-context the water framework directive is important. In the EECCA countries there will be

49 PKR/15/05/2006

significant projects funded by international donors.. Bio-energy production: the emerging major new use of agricultural land in EU-25, and poten-tially also beyond due to export opportunities. This will provide some limited possibilities for maintaining agriculture where it might otherwise disappear and has an important management function, but is likely to add new pressures on overall land use intensity. The energy section discusses this issue – I propose that they mention production potential whereas the agriculture section discusses potential changes in agricultural production systems and associated environ-mental risks. Overall the issue definitely merits a box (on the basis of the forthcoming EEA re-ports on the topic). Other points of interest are the question of farm advisory services for environmental manage-ment (CIFAS project) and how other policies become an important reference framework for the direction of agriculture policy (see EU rural development monitoring indicators etc; beyond there is, for example, the Gothenburg protocol on limiting trans-boundary air emissions [very relevant for agricultural ammonia emissions]). Lastly, we could make a bit more of organic farming as a policy response than last time (EEA core set indicator). Information sources

• IRENA reports and EEA report on A & E in EU accession countries • UNECE environmental performance reviews

Potential overlap to other chapters/sections • Link to biodiversity and water chapters; energy, transport and climate change chapters also

relevant

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