beijing | brussels | london
DESCRIPTION
Beijing | Brussels | London. Global Overview of New Markets Steve Sawyer, Secretary General EWEA Vienna, 6 Feb 2013. Beijing | Brussels | London. Outline: 1. Status of global markets 2. Short term outlook 3. New Markets - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Beijing | Brussels | London
Global Overview of New MarketsSteve Sawyer, Secretary General
EWEA Vienna, 6 Feb 2013
Beijing | Brussels | London
Outline:
1. Status of global markets2. Short term outlook3. New Markets4. Looking Ahead and Conclusions
Global Market Overview – Power Markets
Renewables accounted for nearly half of the estimated 208 GW of new electric capacity installed in 2011
Renewable electric power capacity worldwide reached 1,360 GW (+8%) in 2011
Renewable energy comprised more than 25% of global power generation capacity
20.3% of global electricity was produced from renewable energy
REN
21
Renew
able
s 20
12
Glo
bal S
tatu
s Report
www.ren21.netwww.ren21.net
Beijing | Brussels | London
Cumulative Growth in OECD and Non-OECD markets
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20110
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
160000
180000
62837
77246
95149
117827
134354
152817
1117016393
25118
41037
63283
84852
OECD Non-OECD
MW
Beijing | Brussels | London
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20110
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
11,134
14,174
18,141
22,787
16,827
18,811
2,571
5,391
8,580
15,922
22,001 21,752
OECD Non-OECD
MW
Annual Growth in OECD and Non-OECD markets
Beijing | Brussels | London
New Markets
Latin America: Brazil and Mexico, followed by…? Africa: Egypt, Morocco and Tunisia; now
Kenya, Tanzania and Ethiopia. South Africa underway.
Asia: Mongolia, Viet Nam, Thailand, Sri Lanka. Japan?
16
MEXICO:801 MW
1014,3 MW BRASIL
ARGENTINA : 54 MW
~20
NICARAGUA: 39,6 MW
~20
Beijing | Brussels | London
WP INSTALLED CAPACITY IN LAC 2012: 2063 MW :
PAIS
Argentina
Brasil
Chile
Colombia
Costa Rica
Cuba
Ecuador
Honduras
México
Nicaragua
Perú
Uruguay
Dominican Republic
Venezuela
Otros Caribe
Total
Caribe
Aruba
Bonaire
Curacao
Dominica
Guadeloupe
Jamaica
TOP 5 IN 2012
52%41%
3%2% 2%
TOP 5 LATAM 2012BRASILMEXICOARGENTINANICARAGUAVENEZUELA
201254
1014,300
15,300.000
80139.6
09
0.0300
2063,2
0
000000
VENEZUELA: 30 MW
LAC Wind Power installed capacity status
PAIS <2008 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 MW ACUMULADA
Argentina 27.88 2 0.25 3.0 80.1 54 167,23Brasil 246 89 267 326 582,6 1014,3 2.524,9Chile 20.13 0 148 3 33.0 0 203.2
Colombia 19.5 0 0 0 0 0 20Costa Rica 74 0 49.5 0 12.7 15,30 147,40
Cuba 7 0 0 4.5 0.0 0.0 11.5Ecuador 2.4 0 0 0 0.0 0 2.4
Honduras 0 0 0 0 102.0 0 102.0México 85 0 117.4 316.9 50.0 801 1.157
Nicaragua 0 0 39 23 0.0 39.6 102Perú 0.7 0 0 0 0.0 0 1
Uruguay 0.7 23 0 10 10.0 9 53Republica
Dominicana 0 0 0 0 33.0 0.0 33.0Venezuela 0 0 0 0 0.0 30 30
Otros Caribe 60 0 41 0 18 0 134,4Total 540 114 661.4 686 1227 2063,2 4692,3
Caribe
Aruba 0 0 30,0 0 0 0 30Bonaire 0 0 10,8 0 0 0 11Curacao 12 0 0 0 0 0 12
Dominica 7 0 0 0 0 0 7Guadeloupe 20,5 0 0 0 0 0 21
Jamaica 20,7 0 0 0 21 0 41,70Cuba 0 0 11,70 0 0 0 11,70
Total CARIBE 134,4
Beijing | Brussels | London
Argentina
Brasil
Chile
Colombia
Costa Rica
Honduras
México
Nicarag
ua
Urugu
ayCari
be0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000MW Acumulados por paises
<2008
2008
2009
2010
2011
Ago 2012
Paises
MW
Acu
mul
ados
4692,3MW
<2008 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 20200
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
New Installations MWCumulative Capacity MW
Year
Cum
ulati
ve C
apac
ity M
W
Capa
city
Inst
alle
d by
yea
r MW
Beijing | Brussels | LondonLATIN AMERICA & CARIBBEAN WIND POWER GROWTH FORECAST 2020 (
Beijing | Brussels | London
Beijing | Brussels | London
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20120
200400600800
1000120014001600
Wind Installed Capacity - México(2005 – 2012)
New installed capacity - year Cumulative installed capacity
Beijing | Brussels | London
Mexico has many regions with premium sites for wind generation. The southern Oaxaca State is privileged.
Source: Instituto de Investigaciones Eléctricas
Beijing | Brussels | London
1,035 GW potential for exploitationThe Master Plan recommends 51 wind projects (with total planned capacity of 6,820MW) and 5 solar PV projects (with total planned capacity of 135MW) up to the period 2030.
Ethiopia
Beijing | Brussels | London
Mongolia
- >1,100,000 MW potential
- World’s largest mining project in Gobi desert – no roads, no power and no water
- GDP growth ~ 35%/y
- First commerical project nearing completion
Beijing | Brussels | London
2013 will be a tough year, with the single largest variable how far the US market will fall, how soon it will recover and what will be the trajectory; Canada and Mexico continue to grow.
China, India – modest recovery from ‘off’ 2012 – new markets in Asia begin to contribute
Europe – stable, with growth in offshore and eastern markets offsetting dire markets in S. europe Latin America – Brazil and Mexico plus…?
Africa – market ‘returns’ in Morocco, Tunisia…Egypt? South Africa gets underway and Ethiopia continues to lead.
Looking Ahead (1)
Beijing | Brussels | London
Rate of global growth will slow until and unless:
- new markets fill the ‘gap’ left by lack of growth in OECD, or…
- OECD economy recovers, and/or
- new CO2 related legislation takes effect.
Downward price pressure continues:
- Oversupply and tough economic times mean margins are slashed to the bone and competition is fierce;
- ‘Consolidation’ in manufacturing sector seemsinevitable.
Looking Ahead (2)
Beijing | Brussels | London
A global climate agreement will be fundamental for wind power to achieve its maximum potential, but for the short term:
Uncertainty:- in international political landscape- in the future of the carbon markets- in ‘new’ climate-related funds
Focus on national/regional legislation and markets
Market drivers all still in place, and increasingly prominent:energy security; cost stability; macroeconomic security;
local economic development and job creation; local environment and climate
Looking Ahead (3)