beach monitoring and predictive modeling€¦ · •in 2009 we commenced a pilot project approved...
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: Beach Monitoring and Predictive Modeling€¦ · •In 2009 we commenced a pilot project approved by our Board of Health to investigate the feasibility of Predictive Modeling. A system](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f0713707e708231d41b2ea6/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Beach Monitoring
and Predictive Modeling
Niagara Region Public Health
1
![Page 2: Beach Monitoring and Predictive Modeling€¦ · •In 2009 we commenced a pilot project approved by our Board of Health to investigate the feasibility of Predictive Modeling. A system](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f0713707e708231d41b2ea6/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Ontario Public Health Standards:
Beach Management Protocol
• Water Sampling at least weekly, a
minimum of 5 sample sites per beach
• Geometric Mean calculated on (5 or more
samples)
• Compare GM result with provincial
standard of 100 E.coli/100 ml.
2
![Page 3: Beach Monitoring and Predictive Modeling€¦ · •In 2009 we commenced a pilot project approved by our Board of Health to investigate the feasibility of Predictive Modeling. A system](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f0713707e708231d41b2ea6/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Persistence Model
• Persistence model assumes E.coli levels
persist for 24-48 hours or more.
• However we know that sampling results
may not reflect actual conditions at the
time of posting.
• We also know that beach water-quality
can change quickly.
3
![Page 4: Beach Monitoring and Predictive Modeling€¦ · •In 2009 we commenced a pilot project approved by our Board of Health to investigate the feasibility of Predictive Modeling. A system](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f0713707e708231d41b2ea6/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Our Story • As we happily sampled beaches once per week as
outlined in the Provincial Beach Management Protocol,
we felt confident that we were meeting the needs of the
Province and the Protocol. But; were we meeting the
needs of the public.
• In 2007 intense news media interest caused us to more
seriously consider the appropriateness of the
Persistence Model.
• In 2008 we sampled a number of beaches on multiple
days; beyond the minimum standard of the Protocol.
• Analysis of multiple day sampling confirmed our
suspicion that the Persistence Model was failing us.
4
![Page 5: Beach Monitoring and Predictive Modeling€¦ · •In 2009 we commenced a pilot project approved by our Board of Health to investigate the feasibility of Predictive Modeling. A system](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f0713707e708231d41b2ea6/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Our Story cont’d
• Can We Do Better Than The Persistence Model?
• Research Other Jurisdictions
• Great Lakes Beach Association
• Meetings with key Regional staff, municipalities, Niagara Water Strategy etc.
• Rapid Testing (technology not there yet, but getting close)
• Daily sampling (still significant time lag)
• Predictive Modeling (not perfect but may be a good option)
5
![Page 6: Beach Monitoring and Predictive Modeling€¦ · •In 2009 we commenced a pilot project approved by our Board of Health to investigate the feasibility of Predictive Modeling. A system](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f0713707e708231d41b2ea6/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
11
-Ma
y-2
00
9
18
-Ma
y-2
00
9
25
-Ma
y-2
00
9
01
-Ju
n-2
00
9
08
-Ju
n-2
00
9
15
-Ju
n-2
00
9
22
-Ju
n-2
00
9
29
-Ju
n-2
00
9
06
-Ju
l-2
00
9
13
-Ju
l-2
00
9
20
-Ju
l-2
00
9
27
-Ju
l-2
00
9
03
-Au
g-2
00
9
10
-Au
g-2
00
9
17
-Au
g-2
00
9
24
-Au
g-2
00
9
31
-Au
g-2
00
9
E.C
oli
Ge
om
etric
Me
an
Long Beach Conservation WestSummer 2009
E. Coli G.M
Posted
Ecoli Threshhold
6
![Page 7: Beach Monitoring and Predictive Modeling€¦ · •In 2009 we commenced a pilot project approved by our Board of Health to investigate the feasibility of Predictive Modeling. A system](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f0713707e708231d41b2ea6/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
E.
Co
li G
eo
metr
ic M
ean
Long Beach Conservation West 2010
E. Coli
Posted
E. Coli Threshold
7
![Page 8: Beach Monitoring and Predictive Modeling€¦ · •In 2009 we commenced a pilot project approved by our Board of Health to investigate the feasibility of Predictive Modeling. A system](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f0713707e708231d41b2ea6/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
E.
co
li G
eo
metr
ic M
ean
Nickel Beach 2010
E. coli
Posted
E. Coli Threshold
8
![Page 9: Beach Monitoring and Predictive Modeling€¦ · •In 2009 we commenced a pilot project approved by our Board of Health to investigate the feasibility of Predictive Modeling. A system](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f0713707e708231d41b2ea6/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
E.C
oli
Geo
metr
ic M
ea
n
Bay (Crystal) Beach 2011
E.coli posted E.Coli Threshold
9
![Page 10: Beach Monitoring and Predictive Modeling€¦ · •In 2009 we commenced a pilot project approved by our Board of Health to investigate the feasibility of Predictive Modeling. A system](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f0713707e708231d41b2ea6/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000E
.Co
li G
eo
metr
ic M
ea
n
Nickel Beach 2011
E.coli posted E.Coli Threshold
10
![Page 11: Beach Monitoring and Predictive Modeling€¦ · •In 2009 we commenced a pilot project approved by our Board of Health to investigate the feasibility of Predictive Modeling. A system](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f0713707e708231d41b2ea6/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
0
200
400
600
800
1000
E.C
oli
Geo
metr
ic M
ea
n
Nickel Beach 2011
E.coli posted E.Coli Threshold0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
2011-05-21 2011-06-21 2011-07-21 2011-08-21
mm
of
rain
fall
24 hour rain fall totals for Nickel beach 2011
0
50
100
150
200
250
2011-05-21 2011-06-21 2011-07-21 2011-08-21
turb
idit
y (
ntu
)
Water turbidity (ntu) for Nickel beach 2011
11
![Page 12: Beach Monitoring and Predictive Modeling€¦ · •In 2009 we commenced a pilot project approved by our Board of Health to investigate the feasibility of Predictive Modeling. A system](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f0713707e708231d41b2ea6/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Our Story cont’d
• In 2009 we commenced a pilot project approved
by our Board of Health to investigate the
feasibility of Predictive Modeling. A system being
used at a number of US beaches and other
international beaches.
• In 2010 we honed our environmental data
collection capabilities and hired a consulting firm
Fuss and O’Neill to create ‘predictive models’ for
3 of our most popular beaches.
12
![Page 13: Beach Monitoring and Predictive Modeling€¦ · •In 2009 we commenced a pilot project approved by our Board of Health to investigate the feasibility of Predictive Modeling. A system](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f0713707e708231d41b2ea6/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Predictive Modeling
• Predictive models can predict or estimate
E.coli levels (or predict the probability of
being above or below the Provincial
standard) based on weather, environmental
factors etc.
• Predictive models may be more accurate
but certainly more timely than the
persistence model.
13
![Page 14: Beach Monitoring and Predictive Modeling€¦ · •In 2009 we commenced a pilot project approved by our Board of Health to investigate the feasibility of Predictive Modeling. A system](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f0713707e708231d41b2ea6/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Predictive Modeling
• Data we collect for predictive modeling includes:
• rainfall
• wind speed, wind direction
• air and water temperature
• sunlight and cloud cover (observational)
• turbidity
• wave height
• other observational survey data (ie number of people at the beach, animals, birds etc)
14
![Page 15: Beach Monitoring and Predictive Modeling€¦ · •In 2009 we commenced a pilot project approved by our Board of Health to investigate the feasibility of Predictive Modeling. A system](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f0713707e708231d41b2ea6/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Predictive Modeling
15
Ontario Ministry of
the Environment
![Page 16: Beach Monitoring and Predictive Modeling€¦ · •In 2009 we commenced a pilot project approved by our Board of Health to investigate the feasibility of Predictive Modeling. A system](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f0713707e708231d41b2ea6/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Process Models
16
Biological
Chemical
Physical
![Page 17: Beach Monitoring and Predictive Modeling€¦ · •In 2009 we commenced a pilot project approved by our Board of Health to investigate the feasibility of Predictive Modeling. A system](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f0713707e708231d41b2ea6/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Data-Driven Models
17
Environmental Variables
Explanatory
E.coli
Target
![Page 18: Beach Monitoring and Predictive Modeling€¦ · •In 2009 we commenced a pilot project approved by our Board of Health to investigate the feasibility of Predictive Modeling. A system](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f0713707e708231d41b2ea6/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
Approach 18
![Page 19: Beach Monitoring and Predictive Modeling€¦ · •In 2009 we commenced a pilot project approved by our Board of Health to investigate the feasibility of Predictive Modeling. A system](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f0713707e708231d41b2ea6/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Approach
• Improve posting accuracy
• Parsimonious models
• Sustainable - Data available for
foreseeable future
19
![Page 20: Beach Monitoring and Predictive Modeling€¦ · •In 2009 we commenced a pilot project approved by our Board of Health to investigate the feasibility of Predictive Modeling. A system](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f0713707e708231d41b2ea6/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
Data Sources
• Beach Specific – Niagara Region staff
• Weather – Niagara Weather Information System (NWIS)
– Environment Canada
• Lake Level – Fisheries and Oceans Canada
• Buoy – Fisheries and Oceans Canada
– NOAA National Buoy Data Center
20
![Page 21: Beach Monitoring and Predictive Modeling€¦ · •In 2009 we commenced a pilot project approved by our Board of Health to investigate the feasibility of Predictive Modeling. A system](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f0713707e708231d41b2ea6/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
Rouge River Toronto Beaches
21
![Page 22: Beach Monitoring and Predictive Modeling€¦ · •In 2009 we commenced a pilot project approved by our Board of Health to investigate the feasibility of Predictive Modeling. A system](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f0713707e708231d41b2ea6/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
Graphical Analysis & Correlation Continuous Variables
Pearson’s r Correlation
Categorical Variables
ANOVA
E.c
oli
ln(E
.coli)
Variable
ln(Variable)
E.c
oli
Variable Category
22
![Page 23: Beach Monitoring and Predictive Modeling€¦ · •In 2009 we commenced a pilot project approved by our Board of Health to investigate the feasibility of Predictive Modeling. A system](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f0713707e708231d41b2ea6/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
Correlated Parameters
Lakeside
• Wave Height
• Turbidity
• Wind Speed
• Water Temp
• Conductivity
• TDS
• pH
• Precipitation
• Wind Gust
• Lake Level
Nickel
• E.coli Outfall
• E.coli Source
• Turbidity
• Lake Level
• Wind Speed
• Wave Height
• Algae
• Dead Fish
• Dead Birds
• Air Temp
• Dew Pt
• Precipitation
Bay (Crystal)
• Precipitation
• E.coli Outfall
• E.coli Source
• Turbidity
• Lake Level
• Wind Speed
• Wave Height
• Algae
• Dead Birds
• Dew Pt
23
![Page 24: Beach Monitoring and Predictive Modeling€¦ · •In 2009 we commenced a pilot project approved by our Board of Health to investigate the feasibility of Predictive Modeling. A system](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f0713707e708231d41b2ea6/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
Model Development Evaluate all Variables
2010 Data
Training Testing
Evaluate Met/Hydro Data
2007-2010 Data
2007-2009 2010
Training Testing
• Censored Data
24
![Page 25: Beach Monitoring and Predictive Modeling€¦ · •In 2009 we commenced a pilot project approved by our Board of Health to investigate the feasibility of Predictive Modeling. A system](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f0713707e708231d41b2ea6/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
Model Development
• Multiple Linear Regression
– Continuous response
– E.coli concentration
• Binary Logistic Regression
– Discrete response
– Above/Below standard
25
![Page 26: Beach Monitoring and Predictive Modeling€¦ · •In 2009 we commenced a pilot project approved by our Board of Health to investigate the feasibility of Predictive Modeling. A system](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f0713707e708231d41b2ea6/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
Multiple Linear Regression
• Widely used
• Successful at beaches on Great Lakes
• Purpose – explain variation in response or target given explanatory or input variables.
• Assumptions
– Response variable is linearly related to explanatory variable
– Data used to fit model are representative
26
![Page 27: Beach Monitoring and Predictive Modeling€¦ · •In 2009 we commenced a pilot project approved by our Board of Health to investigate the feasibility of Predictive Modeling. A system](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f0713707e708231d41b2ea6/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
Binary Logistic Regression
• Calculates the probability of a particular
response
• Useful for binary responses – yes/no,
post/don’t post
27
![Page 28: Beach Monitoring and Predictive Modeling€¦ · •In 2009 we commenced a pilot project approved by our Board of Health to investigate the feasibility of Predictive Modeling. A system](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f0713707e708231d41b2ea6/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
Models - Lakeside 28
![Page 29: Beach Monitoring and Predictive Modeling€¦ · •In 2009 we commenced a pilot project approved by our Board of Health to investigate the feasibility of Predictive Modeling. A system](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f0713707e708231d41b2ea6/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
Models - Nickel 29
![Page 30: Beach Monitoring and Predictive Modeling€¦ · •In 2009 we commenced a pilot project approved by our Board of Health to investigate the feasibility of Predictive Modeling. A system](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f0713707e708231d41b2ea6/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
Models – Bay (Crystal) 30
![Page 31: Beach Monitoring and Predictive Modeling€¦ · •In 2009 we commenced a pilot project approved by our Board of Health to investigate the feasibility of Predictive Modeling. A system](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f0713707e708231d41b2ea6/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
Performance
• Adjusted R2, RMSE
• False/True Positives/Negatives
• Sensitivity
• Specificity
• Graphical
31
![Page 32: Beach Monitoring and Predictive Modeling€¦ · •In 2009 we commenced a pilot project approved by our Board of Health to investigate the feasibility of Predictive Modeling. A system](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f0713707e708231d41b2ea6/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
Performance
Observed
Pre
dic
ted FP
FN
Time
E.c
oli
Model #1 Model #2
Pe
rcenta
ge
FP
FN
TP
TN
32
![Page 33: Beach Monitoring and Predictive Modeling€¦ · •In 2009 we commenced a pilot project approved by our Board of Health to investigate the feasibility of Predictive Modeling. A system](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f0713707e708231d41b2ea6/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
Performance 33
![Page 34: Beach Monitoring and Predictive Modeling€¦ · •In 2009 we commenced a pilot project approved by our Board of Health to investigate the feasibility of Predictive Modeling. A system](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f0713707e708231d41b2ea6/html5/thumbnails/34.jpg)
Performance 34
![Page 35: Beach Monitoring and Predictive Modeling€¦ · •In 2009 we commenced a pilot project approved by our Board of Health to investigate the feasibility of Predictive Modeling. A system](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f0713707e708231d41b2ea6/html5/thumbnails/35.jpg)
Performance 35
![Page 36: Beach Monitoring and Predictive Modeling€¦ · •In 2009 we commenced a pilot project approved by our Board of Health to investigate the feasibility of Predictive Modeling. A system](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f0713707e708231d41b2ea6/html5/thumbnails/36.jpg)
Performance 36
![Page 37: Beach Monitoring and Predictive Modeling€¦ · •In 2009 we commenced a pilot project approved by our Board of Health to investigate the feasibility of Predictive Modeling. A system](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f0713707e708231d41b2ea6/html5/thumbnails/37.jpg)
Performance 37
![Page 38: Beach Monitoring and Predictive Modeling€¦ · •In 2009 we commenced a pilot project approved by our Board of Health to investigate the feasibility of Predictive Modeling. A system](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f0713707e708231d41b2ea6/html5/thumbnails/38.jpg)
Performance 38
![Page 39: Beach Monitoring and Predictive Modeling€¦ · •In 2009 we commenced a pilot project approved by our Board of Health to investigate the feasibility of Predictive Modeling. A system](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f0713707e708231d41b2ea6/html5/thumbnails/39.jpg)
Performance
![Page 40: Beach Monitoring and Predictive Modeling€¦ · •In 2009 we commenced a pilot project approved by our Board of Health to investigate the feasibility of Predictive Modeling. A system](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f0713707e708231d41b2ea6/html5/thumbnails/40.jpg)
Performance
Bay Beach (Crystal)
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
5/15/2010 5/25/2010 6/4/2010 6/14/2010 6/24/2010 7/4/2010 7/14/2010 7/24/2010 8/3/2010 8/13/2010 8/23/2010 9/2/2010
ln (
E. c
oli
GM
)
Observed Prior Day Model MLR 6
GM = 100 CFU/100ml
40
![Page 41: Beach Monitoring and Predictive Modeling€¦ · •In 2009 we commenced a pilot project approved by our Board of Health to investigate the feasibility of Predictive Modeling. A system](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f0713707e708231d41b2ea6/html5/thumbnails/41.jpg)
Challenges
• Transfer from
Developer to Manager
• Timing of Data Availability
• Beach Suitability
41
![Page 42: Beach Monitoring and Predictive Modeling€¦ · •In 2009 we commenced a pilot project approved by our Board of Health to investigate the feasibility of Predictive Modeling. A system](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f0713707e708231d41b2ea6/html5/thumbnails/42.jpg)
“Despite the attractiveness of predictive
models...it is likely that FIB fluctuations
at some beaches defy simple prediction
approaches.”
- Nevers et al., 2009
42
![Page 43: Beach Monitoring and Predictive Modeling€¦ · •In 2009 we commenced a pilot project approved by our Board of Health to investigate the feasibility of Predictive Modeling. A system](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f0713707e708231d41b2ea6/html5/thumbnails/43.jpg)
Key Points
• Assess Data Infrastructure
• Precipitation, Streamflow, Wind Speed and Direction, Wave Height and Turbidity
• Better Candidates Beaches
• Low Exceedance
• Decreasing False Positives
• Less Likely to Improve True Positives
• Compared to Persistence Model?
• Ongoing “Maintenance” – Not Static
43
![Page 44: Beach Monitoring and Predictive Modeling€¦ · •In 2009 we commenced a pilot project approved by our Board of Health to investigate the feasibility of Predictive Modeling. A system](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f0713707e708231d41b2ea6/html5/thumbnails/44.jpg)
Identifying Candidate Beaches
1. Currently Unsatisfactory?
2. Sufficient Beach Data Quality, Timing, Quantity?
3. Consistent Water Quality Concerns?
4. Other Environmental Data?
![Page 46: Beach Monitoring and Predictive Modeling€¦ · •In 2009 we commenced a pilot project approved by our Board of Health to investigate the feasibility of Predictive Modeling. A system](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f0713707e708231d41b2ea6/html5/thumbnails/46.jpg)
Current
and
Future Initiatives
46
![Page 47: Beach Monitoring and Predictive Modeling€¦ · •In 2009 we commenced a pilot project approved by our Board of Health to investigate the feasibility of Predictive Modeling. A system](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f0713707e708231d41b2ea6/html5/thumbnails/47.jpg)
Niagara Beach Sampling
• Sampling is carried out by 2 person teams of
summer students or Public Health Inspectors.
(Health and Safety reasons)
• Samples are collected at a depth of about .75m.
or 2 ½ feet. (Primarily for safety reasons)
• Additional samples are collected at some beaches
for research purposes.
47
![Page 48: Beach Monitoring and Predictive Modeling€¦ · •In 2009 we commenced a pilot project approved by our Board of Health to investigate the feasibility of Predictive Modeling. A system](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f0713707e708231d41b2ea6/html5/thumbnails/48.jpg)
Beach Studies 2010/2011/2012
• MST (Microbial Source Tracking) and DNA
tracing studies carried out in 2010 at 15
beaches and another subset of these in
2011.
• Campylobacter and sand studies 2012.
48
![Page 49: Beach Monitoring and Predictive Modeling€¦ · •In 2009 we commenced a pilot project approved by our Board of Health to investigate the feasibility of Predictive Modeling. A system](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f0713707e708231d41b2ea6/html5/thumbnails/49.jpg)
Niagara Beach Sampling
• Beach assessment and survey data collected
and input into our Hedgehog computer system.
• Data from Hedgehog is transferred to our
Beaches Application.
• Beach application consists of 5 apps that allow
quick retrieval, analysis and reporting of beach
information.
• Website and hot-line are updated and beach
owners are notified of postings and un-postings.
49
![Page 50: Beach Monitoring and Predictive Modeling€¦ · •In 2009 we commenced a pilot project approved by our Board of Health to investigate the feasibility of Predictive Modeling. A system](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f0713707e708231d41b2ea6/html5/thumbnails/50.jpg)
Niagara Beach Signage
50
![Page 51: Beach Monitoring and Predictive Modeling€¦ · •In 2009 we commenced a pilot project approved by our Board of Health to investigate the feasibility of Predictive Modeling. A system](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f0713707e708231d41b2ea6/html5/thumbnails/51.jpg)
51
![Page 52: Beach Monitoring and Predictive Modeling€¦ · •In 2009 we commenced a pilot project approved by our Board of Health to investigate the feasibility of Predictive Modeling. A system](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f0713707e708231d41b2ea6/html5/thumbnails/52.jpg)
Beach Website Future
• Water quality forecasts (above or below
provincial standard)
• Water temperature
• Automated updates of E.coli data
• Water quality trends (charts or graphs)
52
![Page 53: Beach Monitoring and Predictive Modeling€¦ · •In 2009 we commenced a pilot project approved by our Board of Health to investigate the feasibility of Predictive Modeling. A system](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f0713707e708231d41b2ea6/html5/thumbnails/53.jpg)
Automating Environmental Data
Collection at Beaches
To
Support Predictive Modeling
53
![Page 54: Beach Monitoring and Predictive Modeling€¦ · •In 2009 we commenced a pilot project approved by our Board of Health to investigate the feasibility of Predictive Modeling. A system](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f0713707e708231d41b2ea6/html5/thumbnails/54.jpg)
Beach Buoy Project Environmental Data Buoy Sonde
54
![Page 55: Beach Monitoring and Predictive Modeling€¦ · •In 2009 we commenced a pilot project approved by our Board of Health to investigate the feasibility of Predictive Modeling. A system](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f0713707e708231d41b2ea6/html5/thumbnails/55.jpg)
55
![Page 56: Beach Monitoring and Predictive Modeling€¦ · •In 2009 we commenced a pilot project approved by our Board of Health to investigate the feasibility of Predictive Modeling. A system](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f0713707e708231d41b2ea6/html5/thumbnails/56.jpg)
Weather Station
56
![Page 57: Beach Monitoring and Predictive Modeling€¦ · •In 2009 we commenced a pilot project approved by our Board of Health to investigate the feasibility of Predictive Modeling. A system](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f0713707e708231d41b2ea6/html5/thumbnails/57.jpg)
Target Beaches
• Lakeside Beach, St. Catharines
• Bay/Crystal Beach, Fort Erie
• Nickel Beach, Port Colborne
• Long Beach-Long Beach Conservation
East-Niagara Public Access Beach,
Wainfleet
57
![Page 58: Beach Monitoring and Predictive Modeling€¦ · •In 2009 we commenced a pilot project approved by our Board of Health to investigate the feasibility of Predictive Modeling. A system](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f0713707e708231d41b2ea6/html5/thumbnails/58.jpg)
58
![Page 59: Beach Monitoring and Predictive Modeling€¦ · •In 2009 we commenced a pilot project approved by our Board of Health to investigate the feasibility of Predictive Modeling. A system](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f0713707e708231d41b2ea6/html5/thumbnails/59.jpg)
59
![Page 60: Beach Monitoring and Predictive Modeling€¦ · •In 2009 we commenced a pilot project approved by our Board of Health to investigate the feasibility of Predictive Modeling. A system](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f0713707e708231d41b2ea6/html5/thumbnails/60.jpg)
60
![Page 61: Beach Monitoring and Predictive Modeling€¦ · •In 2009 we commenced a pilot project approved by our Board of Health to investigate the feasibility of Predictive Modeling. A system](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f0713707e708231d41b2ea6/html5/thumbnails/61.jpg)
61
![Page 62: Beach Monitoring and Predictive Modeling€¦ · •In 2009 we commenced a pilot project approved by our Board of Health to investigate the feasibility of Predictive Modeling. A system](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f0713707e708231d41b2ea6/html5/thumbnails/62.jpg)
62
![Page 63: Beach Monitoring and Predictive Modeling€¦ · •In 2009 we commenced a pilot project approved by our Board of Health to investigate the feasibility of Predictive Modeling. A system](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f0713707e708231d41b2ea6/html5/thumbnails/63.jpg)
63
![Page 64: Beach Monitoring and Predictive Modeling€¦ · •In 2009 we commenced a pilot project approved by our Board of Health to investigate the feasibility of Predictive Modeling. A system](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f0713707e708231d41b2ea6/html5/thumbnails/64.jpg)
64
![Page 65: Beach Monitoring and Predictive Modeling€¦ · •In 2009 we commenced a pilot project approved by our Board of Health to investigate the feasibility of Predictive Modeling. A system](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f0713707e708231d41b2ea6/html5/thumbnails/65.jpg)
Collaboration
• Our primary partners are beach
owners/municipalities Niagara Region and
Environment Canada.
• Help from primary partners include;
– Installing buoys and weather stations.
– Monitoring buoys and weather stations for
security and damage etc
– Maintaining buoys and weather stations as
the need arises.
65
![Page 66: Beach Monitoring and Predictive Modeling€¦ · •In 2009 we commenced a pilot project approved by our Board of Health to investigate the feasibility of Predictive Modeling. A system](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f0713707e708231d41b2ea6/html5/thumbnails/66.jpg)
Environment Canada
66
![Page 67: Beach Monitoring and Predictive Modeling€¦ · •In 2009 we commenced a pilot project approved by our Board of Health to investigate the feasibility of Predictive Modeling. A system](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f0713707e708231d41b2ea6/html5/thumbnails/67.jpg)
YSI Sonde at Lakeside Beach, St. Catharines
67
![Page 68: Beach Monitoring and Predictive Modeling€¦ · •In 2009 we commenced a pilot project approved by our Board of Health to investigate the feasibility of Predictive Modeling. A system](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f0713707e708231d41b2ea6/html5/thumbnails/68.jpg)
Deployment
68
![Page 69: Beach Monitoring and Predictive Modeling€¦ · •In 2009 we commenced a pilot project approved by our Board of Health to investigate the feasibility of Predictive Modeling. A system](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f0713707e708231d41b2ea6/html5/thumbnails/69.jpg)
Environment Canada Data Buoy
69
![Page 70: Beach Monitoring and Predictive Modeling€¦ · •In 2009 we commenced a pilot project approved by our Board of Health to investigate the feasibility of Predictive Modeling. A system](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f0713707e708231d41b2ea6/html5/thumbnails/70.jpg)
Collaboration
• Other possible collaborators;
– McMaster University
– Brock University
– Niagara College
– Niagara Water Strategy
– Ministry of Environment
– Niagara Peninsula Conservation Authority
70
![Page 71: Beach Monitoring and Predictive Modeling€¦ · •In 2009 we commenced a pilot project approved by our Board of Health to investigate the feasibility of Predictive Modeling. A system](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f0713707e708231d41b2ea6/html5/thumbnails/71.jpg)
Potential Benefits to all
Collaborators – Access to ongoing data
– Increased knowledge on condition of beaches
– Information that can help mitigate beach water quality problems
– More timely posted warnings to public about beach water quality
– More accurate posting of beaches
– Beaches more often open to public use
– Posting of beaches when most necessary
– Public view of positive action being taken to protect beaches
– Other opportunities for related research efforts such as climate
change research
71
![Page 72: Beach Monitoring and Predictive Modeling€¦ · •In 2009 we commenced a pilot project approved by our Board of Health to investigate the feasibility of Predictive Modeling. A system](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f0713707e708231d41b2ea6/html5/thumbnails/72.jpg)
Conclusion
• The ability to predict or forecast beach water
quality, with improved timeliness of beach
posting will help to prevent or reduce water-
borne illness.
• More timely and appropriate posting of beaches
will increase economic benefits of open
beaches.
• Actively managing beaches will improve beach
water quality and increase the enjoyment of
beaches by the public.
72
Glen Hudgin
![Page 73: Beach Monitoring and Predictive Modeling€¦ · •In 2009 we commenced a pilot project approved by our Board of Health to investigate the feasibility of Predictive Modeling. A system](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f0713707e708231d41b2ea6/html5/thumbnails/73.jpg)
Questions?
73