JASP

Bayesian Hypothesis Testing Using JASP

Jonathon Love Ravi Selker

JosineVerhagen

Eric-JanWagenmakers

SachaEpskamp Richard Morey

MartenMarsman

QuentinGronau

Jeff Rouder

Tahira Jamil

Dora Matzke

Alexander Ly

JASP

Software for performing statistical analysis

3 Goals

– To be a free and open alternative to SPSS

– To provide the latest Bayesian analyses in an accessible way

– To provide a general statistical platform for publishing analyses with rich UIs

JASP

Workshop program:● 1100 – 1115: Jonathon Love

– A general introduction to JASP

● 1115 – 1145: EJ Wagenmakers– An introduction to Bayes factors

– T-Tests

● 1145 – 1215: Richard D. Morey– ANOVA

● 1215 – 1220: Jonathon Love– Future development of JASP

SPSS

Goal 1, alternative to SPSS

● SPSS is expensive– Costs the University and Scientific Communities $50-100 million per year

● SPSS does not implement the latest analyses

– such as Bayesian analyses

● SPSS is a tool used in science, for which the scientific community has very little say in the direction it is developed– We have a body of professionals who cannot move forward with science

● SPSS is not open source, no peer review● SPSS is unpleasant to use

JASP

In contrast

● Free

● Open source

● Designed to be familiar to users of SPSS

Demo

● Big 5 Questionnaire(Dolan, Oort, Stoel, Wicherts, 2009)

● Scores for

– Openness

– Contentiousness

– Extraversion

– Agreeableness

– Neuroticism

Demo

Innovations here:

● Interactivity and immediate feedback● Copy and paste APA formatted tables

● Can return to an earlier analysis, and see exactly what options were used (think peer review)

Goal 1● A compelling alternative to SPSS

JASP

Goal 2

● Provide the latest Bayesian analyses in an accessible way

– Bayesian T-Tests

– Bayesian ANOVAs

– Bayesian Linear regression● Morey & Rouder's BayesFactor package

– Bayesian Correlation● Alexander Ly

– Bayesian Contingency tables● Tahira Jamil

T-Test

● Topolinski and Sparenberg (2012) hypothesized that “clockwise movements induce psychological states of temporal progression and an orientation toward the future and novelty”

● Participants rotated paper towels one of two directions, while answering a Big 5 questionnaire

Demo

Demo

● Individuals rotating clockwise scored more highly on the Openness dimension than those rotating them counter clockwise (p < .05)

● This attracted some criticism

● Eric-Jan Wagenmakers, sought to answer this pressing and highly important debate with a replication study

● We will too!

JASP

Goal 2

● JASP provides Bayesian equivalents of many standard statistical tests

JASP

Goal 3● To provide a general statistical platform for publishing

analyses with rich UIs– Alternative platform to R

– R is an empowering platform for developing analyses

– But for users of analyses:● R has a steep learning curve● R can be very time consuming to use● R is difficult to read and peer review● R is error prone

JASP

● JASP solves these issues by facilitating rich UIs

● JASP aims to be a platform which bridges users and developers

● Provide a plugin framework for incorporating analyses into JASP

– API

– UI definition / mapping

– App store

● Still in development (6 months away)

JASP

● SEM by Mijke and Sacha

● Political Democracy Example from Bollen's 1989 book

# latent variable definitions ind60 =~ x1 + x2 + x3 dem60 =~ y1 + y2 + y3 + y4 dem65 =~ y5 + y6 + y7 + y8 # regressions dem60 ~ ind60 dem65 ~ ind60 + dem60 # residual covariances y1 ~~ y5 y2 ~~ y4 + y6 y3 ~~ y7 y4 ~~ y8 y6 ~~ y8

JASP

To sum up

– A free and open alternative to SPSS

– Provides the latest Bayesian analyses in an accessible way

– On its way to becoming a general statistical platform for publishing analyses with rich UIs

JASP

JASP 0.6 available for

Windows, Mac OS X, Linux

jasp-stats.org

JASP 0.6.5 available within a week

Source code available on GitHub

github.com/jasp-stats

JASP

● General questions?

● Over to EJ

Future Ambitions

JASP's development is on-going

● Add the remaining common analyses

– Logistic regression, etc.

● Add the Bayesian equivalents

● Add a good help system, examples

● Add data entering, editing, cleaning and restructuring facilities

Future Ambitions

JASP's development is on-going

● Add facilities for the development of 3rd party analyses

● Add support for processing in “the cloud”, supercomputer resources

– Using a supercomputer should be as simple as clicking a checkbox

● Empower methodologists to publish analyses in an accessible way

● All open source

Future Ambitions

Educational resources

● EJ's 3 volume work

– Introduction to Bayes

– Bayes in JASP

– Bayes in depth

● Development of resources for educators

● MOOC

Future Ambitions

● If you fulfil a teaching role at your institution, consider using JASP, or at least begin the discussion

● Even if your institution hates Bayesianism, and will only use the frequentist stuff

– Using free and open source software is still good for science

– A Bayesian trojan horse

● Invite Jonathon to give a talk at your institution about JASP (he likes to talk)

Upcoming events

JASP Workshops

● May - APS, New York

● June - SARMAC, Victoria Canada

● August – Two day JASP workshop, Amsterdam

– Registration is open

See website for details: jasp-stats.org