bayer cropscience norwich - ofgem.gov.uk · • cost information at nbp. composite weather variable...
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![Page 1: Bayer Cropscience Norwich - ofgem.gov.uk · • Cost information at NBP. Composite weather variable winter period-4-2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 01-Oct-05 06-Oct-05 11-Oct-05 16-Oct-05](https://reader031.vdocuments.site/reader031/viewer/2022011803/5b8017757f8b9ae6088d0e34/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Bayer Cropscience Norwich
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Content• Overview of Bayer Cropscience Norwich• Gas purchasing history• Gas purchasing strategy• Gas supply information• National Grid website now• National Grid website in the future• The first Gas Balancing Alert• GBA action and cost comparison
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Facts about site• Covers ~115 acres• 300 permanent employees• 20 processes• Mostly agrochemicals • 4.4 MW CHP, 2.5 MW internal• 17 tph steam – normal load about 10 t• Prime energy source is gas• Seasonal business - low summer demand• Annual gas use about 130 to 140 GWhr
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Gas Purchasing History as % of 2006
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
one/two year contractslow priority attention
one year contract +negotiation
monthlycontracts
variablecontract
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Gas Purchasing Strategy• If we were given a school report it would
say
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Gas Purchasing Strategy• Could do better• BUT company policy is not to speculate• IF we were better informed we might have
pushed for contracts for 2004/5/6• Seemed to us that day ahead was always
cheaper than month ahead• We did not understand the market drivers• Underlying supply fundamentals did not
seem readily available.• The last two points are the most important
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Gas Supply Knowledge• First real eye opener for me was a
seminar run by CIA• Outlined source of gas & capability
– beach supply – north sea– pipelines – Scandinavian, European – storage - long, medium, short– LNG
• Indicated cost premium of each cf. beach• Possible to see how errors in predictions
could cause large cost hikes
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Conclusion - the game has changed• Supply predictions were too optimistic• Whenever supplies become critical they
do seem more prone to problems – maybe because of the “spotlight effect”.
• Very rapidly moved from an over supply to a marginal supply situation.
• Purchasing becomes more sensitive• Need access to better market information
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The Information Gap• One sided – traders have up to date
detailed information – purchasers often have to rely on suppliers
• In this volatile situation purchasers need more up to date data.
• The Interim NG Gas Website has partly filled the gap
• Enables better understanding of supply profile and price
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NG Gas Website• Supply information (comparable)
– Beach– Interconnector– LNG– Storage
• ALL WITH HEALTH WARNING• Temperature / demand profiles• Storage information• Cost information at NBP
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Composite weather variable winter period
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
01-Oct-05
06-Oct-05
11-Oct-05
16-Oct-05
21-Oct-05
26-Oct-05
31-Oct-05
05-Nov-05
10-Nov-05
15-Nov-05
20-Nov-05
25-Nov-05
30-Nov-05
05-Dec-05
10-Dec-05
15-Dec-05
20-Dec-05
25-Dec-05
30-Dec-05
04-Jan-06
09-Jan-06
14-Jan-06
19-Jan-06
24-Jan-06
29-Jan-06
03-Feb-06
08-Feb-06
13-Feb-06
18-Feb-06
23-Feb-06
28-Feb-06
05-Mar-06
10-Mar-06
15-Mar-06
20-Mar-06
25-Mar-06
30-Mar-06
SNCWV Cold CWV Warm CWV Actual CWV
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Actual demand profile winter period
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
01-Oct-05
06-Oct-05
11-Oct-05
16-Oct-05
21-Oct-05
26-Oct-05
31-Oct-05
05-Nov-05
10-Nov-05
15-Nov-05
20-Nov-05
25-Nov-05
30-Nov-05
05-Dec-05
10-Dec-05
15-Dec-05
20-Dec-05
25-Dec-05
30-Dec-05
04-Jan-06
09-Jan-06
14-Jan-06
19-Jan-06
24-Jan-06
29-Jan-06
03-Feb-06
08-Feb-06
13-Feb-06
18-Feb-06
23-Feb-06
28-Feb-06
05-Mar-06
10-Mar-06
15-Mar-06
20-Mar-06
25-Mar-06
30-Mar-06
mcm
Normal demand Cold demand Warm demand Actual demand
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NTS INPUTS mcm/day
200.0
250.0
300.0
350.0
400.0
01/11/2005
08/11/2005
15/11/2005
22/11/2005
29/11/2005
06/12/2005
13/12/2005
20/12/2005
27/12/2005
03/01/2006
10/01/2006
17/01/2006
24/01/2006
31/01/2006
07/02/2006
14/02/2006
21/02/2006
28/02/2006beach interconnector isle of grain rough storage medium storage short storage
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NTS INPUTS mcm/day
200.0
250.0
300.0
350.0
400.0
01/01/2006
08/01/2006
15/01/2006
22/01/2006
29/01/2006
05/02/2006
12/02/2006
19/02/2006
26/02/2006
05/03/2006
12/03/2006
19/03/2006
26/03/2006
02/04/2006
09/04/2006
16/04/2006
23/04/2006
30/04/2006
beach interconnector isle of grain rough storage medium storage short storage
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Time line of data• The website is currently 2 days behind• Although this data helps to build a picture
of happenings and consequences• To be fair in a trading situation we all need
the same information on the same timescale
• NG Gas are being asked to make it within the hour???
• A notice board of events would also level the playing field
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How to use information• No substitute for experience• Buying decisions mostly winter periods• Weather trends – see internet• Balance between supply hierarchy and
demand• Day ahead to BOM• Switch to Oil• No magic wand• True professionals will get to deals quicker• But you pay for the service
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NTS INPUTS mcm/day
200.0
250.0
300.0
350.0
400.0
01/01/06
08/01/06
15/01/06
22/01/06
29/01/06
05/02/06
12/02/06
19/02/06
26/02/06
05/03/06
12/03/06
19/03/06
26/03/06
02/04/06
09/04/06
16/04/06
23/04/06
30/04/06
beach interconnector isle of grain rough storage medium storage short storage
0
50
100
150
200
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 2 1 2 3 2 5 2 7 2 9 3 1 3 3 3 5 3 7 3 9 4 1 4 3 4 5 4 7 4 9 5 1 5 3 5 5 5 7 5 9 6 1 6 3 6 5 6 7 6 9 7 1 7 3 7 5 7 7 7 9 8 1 8 3 8 5 8 7 8 9 9 1 9 3 9 5 9 7 9 9 10 1 10 3 10 5 10 7 10 9 111 113 115 117 119
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The first GBA • Dateline 13/3/06 GBA issued 00:08 hrs• Voluntarily reduced our load• Prices escalating
– 10/3/06 Friday Heron day ahead 56.2– 13/3/06 Monday Heron day ahead 183.3
• Way in excess of oil equivalent• Changed to oil• Shut down CHP, import power, use SBB• Resume normal working 21/3/06
– 20/3/06 Heron day ahead 83.6
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Comparative cost during GBA14th to 21rd March inc.
85,009144,233
0-14,335export29,5770import27,8810oil27,551158,568gason oilon gas
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Supplier flexibility
• Supplier is flexible– Year, month, day ahead cumulative, BOM
• During GBA month offered daily weighted, instead of cumulative, average
• Interesting question about ownership– Contract to supply– Agreement on price
• Can only fixed price contracts be sold back?
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My Question• I assume that much of the supply is on
very long term contract– Domestic suppliers– Power stations
• Consequently customers such as ourselves buy a relatively small amount but at a marginal price.
• Who actually sets the NBP price• On what is this price based
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My Question• I assume that much of the supply is on
very long term contract– Domestic suppliers– Power stations
• Consequently customers such as ourselves buy a relatively small amount but at a marginal price.
• Who actually sets the NBP price• On what is this price based
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THE END