battle creek msa 2006 and 2007 economic forecast january 13, 2006 w.e. upjohn institute george a....
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Battle Creek MSA 2006 and 2007 Economic Forecast
January 13, 2006W.E. Upjohn InstituteGeorge A. Erickcek & Brad R. Watts
A special thanks to
Battle Creek Community Foundation Battle Creek Unlimited Consumers Energy SEMCO Energy
Outline Strong economic outlook but with growing
uncertainty. The impact of productivity gains on
employment. The state’s economy is still struggling. Local numbers: Still sluggish except for
manufacturing. Forecast – But how did you do last year? The challenge facing Calhoun County
Gross Domestic ProductThe expansion is three years old and is still going strong in terms of output.
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Source: BEA.
Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate
Productivity and normal employment growth will allow a 3.3% increase in GDP with inflation.
There is clearly a turnaround in national employment There is clearly a turnaround in national employment growth; however…growth; however…
-1,000
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Tho
usan
ds o
f job
s
Source: BLS.
National employment increased by 108,000 in December, slightly below expectations.
……manufacturing employment conditions are manufacturing employment conditions are much softer.much softer.
-450
-400
-350
-300
-250
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Tho
usan
ds o
f job
s
Source: BLS.
Productivity gains and globalization have taken their toll on the ability of manufacturers to create jobs.
13,000
14,000
15,000
16,000
17,000
18,000
19,000
20,000
50 53 56 59 62 65 68 71 74 77 80 83 86 89 92 95 98 '01 '04 '07
Tho
usan
ds o
f job
s
In December: Manufacturers employed 14.3 million.
Source: BLS.
Production Index and U.S. Manufacturing Employment – Manufacturing is doing great!
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Year
Pro
du
ctio
n In
de
x 2
00
2=
10
0
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
U.S
. Mfg
Em
plo
yme
nt (
00
0)
Federal Reserve Board Production Index (Manufacturing) U.S. Manufacturing Employment
Jobs, what new jobs? DaimlerChrysler AG’s Chrysler Group
announced that it plans to increase its annual production capacity by 43 percent without any new plants or new workers.
As reported in Business Review West Michigan, the last time the Herman Miller was at its current quarterly sales volume, it had 3,000 more employees on the payroll.
The Changing Manufacturing Environment
Outstanding productivity gains have limited employment growth in manufacturing.
Michigan is losing its dominance as the production center for the auto industry. The Big Three’s share of the North American market has dropped to 57 percent.
The world’s high-growth regions are outside the U.S. Often it makes more sense to produce the goods where they are sold.
Clearly, other nations can assemble goods more cheaply. In China, the cost of factory labor is $1.00/hr. including benefits. (Note: that hourly wage buys nearly $3.50 worth of goods and services in China.)
Forecasters agree that the national economy is likely to continue growing, though the pace may slow.
Philadelphia Fed GDP Forecast
3.73.4
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
2005 2006
% G
DP
Gro
wth
U of M RSQE GDP Forecast
3.73.4
2.8
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
2005 2006 2007
% G
DP
Gro
wth
Source: Philadelphia Fed Q3 2005 Forecast; U of M RSQE, U.S. Economic Outlook
What I worry about:
You and what a trusted friend is saying.
We are not saving very much, which is fine if nothing bad happens.
-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
2002 2003 2004 2005
Personal savings as a percentage of disposable personal income
Source: BEA
Consumer debt as a percent of income is slowly rising.
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
95q2
95q4
96q2
96q4
97q2
97q4
98q2
98q4
99q2
99q4
00q2
00q4
01q2
01q4
02q2
02q4
03q2
03q4
04q2
04q4
05q2
% o
f Pe
rson
al I
ncom
e
Total debt including rent, auto leases, property taxes, and house insurance.
Credit cards & mortgage payments
Consumers keep hanging on, but their confidence is flat.
U.S. Consumer Confidence
020406080
100120140160
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Inde
x 10
0 =
198
5
Source: The Conference Board, Business Cycle Indicators.
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Percent difference between 10-year T-bonds and 90-day T-notes.
Interest rate spread - This indicator has not given a false positive in more than 50 years. But there is always the first time.
Source: Federal Reserve Board.
What’s going on? Could be the result of an increasing global
glut of dollars due to our ongoing trade deficit – Our payments for goods have to be going somewhere.
It is a worldwide event.
Inflation expectations are surprisingly flat due to the Fed’s money tightening policies —despite energy prices.
OR… we are in trouble.
Auto Sector
Let’s look at the highly cyclical auto industry.Sales of Cars and Light Trucks
0
5
10
15
20
25
'98 Jan '99 Jan '00 Jan '01 Jan '02 Jan '03 Jan '04 Jan '05 Jan
Mill
ions o
f U
nits
Source: BEA
SAAR
U of M forecasts sales of cars and light trucks to reach 17.0 million units in 2006 and 17.1 million in 2007
Concerns about the Auto Sector
Delphi – a tip of an iceberg? Legacy costs will not go away. GM & UAW reaching a tentative agreement on health care costs is a major breakthrough.
The Big Three still lag in productivity. According to industry analysts, the increase in gas
prices will not impact car sales nor the type of cars being sold.
Major concerns: The industry continues to move south. Suppliers continue to be squeezed. Ford and GM continue to lose market share.
Auto employment declines reflect a loss of production and not an improvement in productivity.
Michigan Motor Vehicle Production
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Veh
icle
s (1
000)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Pro
du
ctio
n w
ork
ers
(000
)
Vehicles Employment
Michigan Economic Conditions and Outlook
From 2000 to 2005, Michigan lost over 300,000 jobs.
Total Michigan Employment
4,100
4,200
4,300
4,400
4,500
4,600
4,700
4,800
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Source: BLS
Thousa
nds
of
jobs
Unemployment has declined in 2005 but is still relatively high.
Unemployment Rate Trends
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 11-month Avg.
Michigan U.S.
Source: BLS.
Michigan has suffered greater employment losses than any other Great Lakes state.
2000 to 2004 Employment Losses
-7%
-6%
-5%
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
Illinois Indiana Michigan Ohio Wisconsin
Source: BLS.
Michigan’s employment environment is weaker than other parts of the U.S.
I ndex of Total Employment (100 = 2000 average)
90
95
100
105
110
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Michigan U.S.
Source: W.E. Upjohn Institute.
Michigan manufacturing employment has underperformed a very weak sector.
I ndex of Manufacturing Employment (100 = 2000 average)
707580859095
100105
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Michigan U.S.
Source: W.E. Upjohn Institute.
The private service-providing sector has maintained flat employment in Michigan over the last few years.
I ndex of Private Service Employment(100 = 2000 average)
90
95
100
105
110
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Michigan U.S.
Source: W.E. Upjohn Institute.
Any way you look at it, Michigan incomes have declined since 2000.
Michigan Income Trends(Real 2004 $)
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
$50,000
$60,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Median household income Median family income
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, ACS estimates.
Michigan’s population is growing slowly—about 0.4% annually.
Michigan Population Trends
9,000,000
9,200,000
9,400,000
9,600,000
9,800,000
10,000,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, ACS estimates.
Unfortunately, no quick turnaround to growth is expected for Michigan.
U of M's RSQE Forecast for Michigan
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
Real disposable income Employment
2005 2006 2007
Source: University of Michigan, RSQE, Michigan Forecast Highlights, 11/18/05.
Battle Creek MSA (Calhoun County)
Only the manufacturing and leisure sectors gained employment during the past year.
Employment Change Calhoun CountyJan-Nov 2004 to J an-Nov 2005
-600 -400 -200 0 200 400
GovernmentOther
Leisure & HospitalityPrivate Education & Health
Professional & BusinessFinancial Activities
Transport & WarehouseRetail
WholesaleManufacturingTotal Nonfarm
Source: MDLEG
A surprising group of manufacturers may be driving the sector’s growth.
Detailed Sector Employment Change Calhoun County, Q1 2004 to Q1 2005
-400 -300 -200 -100 0 100 200 300 400
Other
Automotive
Machinery
Fabricated Metals
Primary Metals
Printing
Paper
Food
Total Manufacturing
Source: MDLEG, ES-202 series.
Local unemployment rate has declined, but remains higher than the nation’s.
Percent Unemployment Rate
0.01.02.03.04.05.06.07.08.0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Q3
Calhoun County U.S.
Source: BLS
Calhoun County was outperforming the U.S., but slipped in 2005.
I ndex of Total Employment (100=2000 average)
949698
100102104106
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Calhoun County U.S.
Source: W.E. Upjohn Institute.
A welcomed difference from the state’s trend, however.
Local manufacturing has remained relatively stable despite a downward trend nationally.
Manufacturing Employment I ndex (100=2000 average)
80
90
100
110
120
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Calhoun County U.S.
Source: W.E. Upjohn Institute.
This is downright impressive.
Calhoun County’s private service-providing sector employment did better than expected over most of the past five years.
I ndex of Private Service-Providing Employment (100=2000 average)
90
95
100
105
110
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Calhoun County U.S.
Source: W.E. Upjohn Institute.
How can the Battle Creek MSA’s unemployment rate be slipping below the nation’s when its goods-producing sector is outperforming the nation’s and its private service-providing sector is doing as well as the nation’s.
Source: W.E. Upjohn Institute, seasonally adjusted data based on BLS employment.
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Battle Creek MSA
U.S.
Calhoun County is growing very slowly—on average, by less than 250 residents per year, or about 0.2%.
Calhoun County Population Trends
135,000
135,500
136,000
136,500
137,000
137,500
138,000
138,500
139,000
139,500
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, July population estimates.
Forecast
Last year, we came pretty close with our 2005 forecast for the Kalamazoo–Battle Creek area!
Old 2005 Forecast Comparison
0.4%
0.0%
0.8%
-0.3%
0.1%0.0%
0.2%
-0.3%-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
Total Goods-producing
Private service-providing
Government
Last Year's KZ-BC Forecast KZ-BC MSA 2005 Est.
Source: W.E. Upjohn Institute. Year-to-date 2005 estimate based on Jan-Nov period BLS data.
However, Calhoun County employment growth did not meet expectations.
Old 2005 Forecast Comparison
0.3%0.0%
0.6%
-0.3%-0.6%
1.2%
-1.4%-1.9%
-2.0%-1.5%-1.0%-0.5%0.0%0.5%1.0%1.5%2.0%
Total Goods-producing Private service-providing
Government
Last Year's 2005 Calhoun Co. Forecast Calhoun Co. 2005 Est.
Source: W.E. Upjohn Institute. Year-to-date 2005 estimate based on Jan-Nov period BLS data.
Looking Ahead: The factors behind the forecast.
Local manufacturers are optimistic. Hopefully a strong auto sector will balance out bad news from Eaton, Lotte USA.
Private services turned down in 2005 and have not developed a “life of their own” in Battle Creek.
A small state budget surplus probably won’t do much to stop the bleeding in local government employment, though we expect the Federal Center to be stable.
Combined Area Kalamazoo MSA and Battle Creek MSA Forecast
0.9%
-0.2%
1.5%
-0.1%
1.0%
-0.1%
1.5%
0.1%
-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
Total Goods-producing
Private service-providing
Government
2006 2007
Calhoun County Employment Forecast 2006–2007
0.7%
1.0% 1.0%
-0.7%
0.3%
1.2%
-0.1%
0.8%
-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
Total Goods-producing
Private service-providing
Government
2006 2007
Now, what am I worried about?
Diversifying the county’s economic base.
Attractiveness Stickiness
The economic impact of manufacturing activity on the county cannot be overly emphasized
Automotive Manufacturing Hospitals
Professional& Technical
Direct Employment 100 100 100
Indirect Employment 122 39 57Goods-producing Construction 7 3 3 Manufacturing 11 1 1Services Wholesale Trade 5 0 0 Retail Trade 32 8 12 Finance, Insurance 4 1 1 Profess, Tech Services 9 2 4 Admin, Waste Services 8 9 11 Health Care, Social Asst 6 2 4 Accom, Food Services 12 5 8Government 2 1 2Total Impact 222 139 157Employment multiplier 2.2 1.4 1.6
Employment Impact of 100 new Base Jobs on Calhoun County
However, not all jobs bring in new dollars.
Automotive Manufacturing Hospitals
Professional& Technical
Direct Employment 100 100 100
Indirect Employment 120 -47 10Goods Producing Construction 7 1 2 Manufacturing 10 0 1Services Wholesale Trade 5 0 0 Retail Trade 32 3 9 Finance, Insurance 4 0 1 Profess, Tech Services 9 1 -27 Admin, Waste Services 8 3 8 Health Care, Social Asst 6 -61 3 Accom, Food Services 12 2 6Government 2 0 1Total Impact 220 53 110Employment multiplier 2.2 0.5 1.1
Employment Impact of 100 new "jobs" in Calhoun County
The very essence of long-run growth is, in fact, the transition …from one export base to another as the area matures in what it can do, and as rising per capita income and technological progress change what the world economy wants done.
W.R.Thompson (1965)
Challenges Facing Battle Creek
Globalization and Neighborhoods Obtaining stickiness in a slippery world. Knowledge-based workers can pick their
locations. Key factors: Thick labor markets:
Opportunities for two-career households Opportunities for advancement
Large metro areas have a major advantage. Neighborhoods, downtowns, schools and a
sense of place will matter more and more.
Movers are younger than stayers.
Age CategoryNonmovers and In-state Movers
Migrants from other U.S. States
5 to 18 21.8% 23.1%18 to 24 10.1% 14.6%25 to 34 13.3% 23.6%35 to 44 17.2% 18.5%45 to 54 14.8% 10.4%55 to 64 9.3% 4.1%65 and older 13.5% 5.7%Source: 2000 PUMSAllegan, Barry, Berrien, Calhoun, Kalamazoo, Kent, Muskegon, Ottawa, Van Buren
Age Profile of Southwest Michigan Residents by Migration Status
Movers are better educated than stayers.
Nonmovers and In-state Movers
Migrants from other U.S. States
Dropouts 11.7% 11.5%H.S. Graduates 30.0% 19.8%Some College, No Degree 26.3% 26.9%Associate Degree 9.5% 7.0%Bachelor's Degree 18.6% 26.0%Graduate Degree 4.0% 8.8%Source: 2000 PUMSAllegan, Barry, Berrien, Calhoun, Kalamazoo, Kent, Muskegon, Ottawa, Van Buren
Educational Attainment of Southwest Michigan Adults Age 25 to 34
Conclusions
Do everything you can to keep your manufacturing base. Toyota would make a nice addition.
But then Think about how your area can attract
and keep the best and brightest.
Battle Creek MSA 2006 and 2007 Economic Forecast
January 13, 2006W.E. Upjohn InstituteGeorge A. Erickcek & Brad R. Watts