basin electric power cooperativeccaps.umn.edu/documents/cpe-conferences/mipsycon... · federal...
TRANSCRIPT
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Basin Electric Power Cooperative
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Discussion Topics
• Basin Electric Power Cooperative• Subsidiaries• Financial Ratings
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Who We Are
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Basin Electric
• Operate at cost - Cooperative• Largest G&T• 3 Tier System
–Class A–Class C
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Membership
Basin has 141 member systems
The member distribution systems ultimately serve 3 million end use consumers
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Basin Electric
• Regulated by Board• 11 Districts - each elect Board
member• Input from Member Managers
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Subsidiaries
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Dakota Coal Company
• Fuel supply subsidiary• Formed in 1988• Provides financing for Freedom
Mine and purchases lignite production– Does not do the mining– Mining is contracted to North
American Coal Company• Supplies lignite to Synfuels Plant,
Antelope Valley & Leland Olds• Has a division and a subsidiary
– Wyoming Lime Producers– Montana Limestone (subsidiary)
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Dakota Gasification Company
• Completed in 1984 (coal to natural gas facility)
• Purchased in 1988 - shared mine and facilities with Basin Electric power plants
• Annually utilizes over 6 million tons of lignite coal mined from the Freedom Mine
• Gas is shipped on the Northern Border Pipeline
• Going forward DGC will primarily be a fertilizer facility
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Synthetic Natural Gas,
$150.2
Naphtha, $4.9
Ammonium Sulfate, $30.3 Other, $1.5
Ammonia, $53.5
Urea, $66.5
Diesel Exhaust Fluid, $2.3
Carbon Dioxide, $21.2
Tar oil, $35.2
Phenol, $10.0 Cresylic Acid, $3.9
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Member Load Growth
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0
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
25,000,000
30,000,000
35,000,000
40,000,000
45,000,000
50,000,00020
00
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
2032
2034
2036
2038
2040
2042
2044
2046
2048
2050
MW
h
ResidentialSmall CommercialLarge CommercialOilCoalCBMEthanolBio-DieselOil PipelineIrrigationOther SalesOwn Use & Losses
29%
23%
12%
17%
28%
23%
11%
20%
Member load is diversified across several growing sectors
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Staying power of oil growth
• April 4, 1951• The Clarence Iverson Number 1• 30-miles northeast of Williston• First successful oil well in North Dakota
• Continues to be served by a Basin Electric member
Largest Basin in Western United States
• Oil production breakeven costs are rapidly decreasing due to technology such as walking rigs - what once took weeks now takes hours
• Horizontal drilling allows for as many as 28 wells on a single pad, using less than .5% of surface land.
• In 2019, 15.9k wells produced 1.44M bpd in ND, while just 442.0k bpd were produced from 47.1k wells in CA
• Once fully developed, as many as 80k wells will exist in the Bakken, the majority underground
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2019 ForecastComparison to National Average
1.06%
1.25%1.16%
0.30%
0.83%
0.64%
0.00%
0.20%
0.40%
0.60%
0.80%
1.00%
1.20%
1.40%
Residential Commercial Total
BEPC National Average
*National Average updated 1-9-201916
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Resource Planning
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78%62% 53%
30%
3%
9% 18%
27%
10%7%
4%13% 14%
22%
3% 10%100%
90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%
0%
2 0 1 0 2 0 2 52 0 1 5
Undefined Market
Biogas/Flamegas REG
Wind
Solar
Federal Hydro Nuclear
Oil/Diesel/Jet Fuel
Natural Gas
Coal
97%82%
70%
39%
5%
16%
6%9%
18%
7% 14%24%
100%90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%
0%
2 0 0 5
2 0 0 5 2 0 1 0 2 0 1 5 2 0 2 5
Undefined Market
Biogas/Flamegas REG
Wind
Solar
Federal Hydro Nuclear
Oil/Diesel/Jet Fuel
Natural Gas
Coal
Ener
gyPo
rtfo
lioCa
pabi
lity
Port
folio
Resource portfolio is increasingly diverse
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Power Supply Planning Areas
WECC-NWPPWECC-NWPP
WECC-RMRGWECC-RMRG
MISOMISOSPPSPP
Transmission Ownershipin SPP and WECC-RMRG
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Generator Management
Antelope Valley 1Antelope Valley 2Leland Olds 1Leland Olds 2Laramie River 1Laramie River 2Laramie River 3Dry ForkNeal 4Walter Scott 3Walter Scott 4Neal 4 (NIMECA)Walter Scott 4 (NIMECA)
Deer CreekCulbertsonGroton 1Groton 2Lonesome Creek 1Lonesome Creek 2Lonesome Creek 3Lonesome Creek 4Lonesome Creek 5Pioneer 1Pioneer 2Pioneer 3Pioneer 11Pioneer 12Pioneer 13Pioneer 14-16Pioneer 17-19Pioneer 20-22ArvadaBarber CreekHartzog
Duane Arnold
BaldwinBrady 1Brady 2Campbell CountyChamberlainCrosswindsCrow LakeDay CountyEdgeley HancockHyde CountyLakotaLindahlMinot Wind ProjectPrairie WindsSunflowerSuperiorWilton 1Wilton 2Crosswinds (NIMECA)Hancock (NIMECA)Culbertson Waste HeatGarvin Waste HeatHidewood Waste HeatManning Waste HeatPembrook Waste HeatSt. Anthony Waste HeatWoodland Waste HeatZeeland Waste Heat
EsthervilleMadisonSpirit Mound 1Spirit Mound 2Webster CityWisdom 1Wisdom 2NIMECA
Wisdom 2AlgonaBancroftCoon RapidsGraettingerGrundy CenterLaurensMilfordNew Hampton SpencerSumnerWest Bend
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Member Growth
• Forecast ever changing - the Bakken• Barr Engineering forecast (sponsored by State)• Much more growth now expected• Bakken becoming the world leader (oil)• Not impacted by oil prices due to low production
costs
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Market Dynamics
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Regional Transmission Organization (RTO)
MARKETLOADNEEDED
MARKET PRICE
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Ventura Gas Daily(North Hub - MN Hub)
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US Wind Capacity by Year
SPP Wind Statistics MW’s
SPP Current Wind Level 21,400 (+ 2GW by year end)
SPP Max Wind Output (9/30/19) 17,109
SPP Max Wind to Load Penetration Level (4/27/19) 67.28%
12/31/2020 Expected SPP Wind Level 27,750
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SPP Wind to Load Penetration2018 vs 2019
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
January February March April May June July August September
2018 % Penetration 2019 % Penetration
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Renewable Growth in the West
“Pacificorp aims for 7,000 MW of new wind, solar and batteries by 2025…with an emphasis on transitioning to clean energy and retiring 16 of its 24 coal plants over the next decade…”
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Financial Ratings
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Credit Ratings
Senior Secured ACommercial Paper F-1+Outlook - Stable
Senior Secured ACommercial Paper A-1Outlook - Stable
Senior Secured A-3Commercial Paper P-2Outlook - Stable
Foundation of our strength is our long-term Wholesale Power Contracts
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