baseline for wind energy project in tunisia second national workshop march 31 & april 1, 2004
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Baseline for wind energy project in Tunisia Second National Workshop March 31 & April 1, 2004. Electric sector data. National operator: STEG Regulatory framework: STEG has the monopole on energy transport and distribution. Independent power production is allowed Electrification rate: 95% - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
CD for CDM - Second National Workshop on Baselines (Phase II) Cairo, March 31 & April 1, 2004
Baseline for wind energy project in Tunisia
Second National Workshop March 31 & April 1, 2004
CD for CDM - Second National Workshop on Baselines (Phase II) Cairo, March 31 & April 1, 2004
Electric sector data
National operator: STEGRegulatory framework: STEG has the monopole on energy transport and distribution. Independent power production is allowed Electrification rate: 95%Demand increase: 6,5% per year Electric consumption: about 10.000 GWh on 2002Installed capacity: about 2800 MWPeak capacity: 1835 MW
CD for CDM - Second National Workshop on Baselines (Phase II) Cairo, March 31 & April 1, 2004
Evolution du parc de production électrique de la STEG
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
3 000
1990 1995 2000 2002
Eolien
Hydraulique
Thermique
1380
Puissance en MW
1744
2384
2812
Power Production Park Evolution
CD for CDM - Second National Workshop on Baselines (Phase II) Cairo, March 31 & April 1, 2004
Electric sector data
Structure du parc de production électrique en 2002
Cycle combiné29,7%
TV39,7%
Eolien0,4%
Hydraulique2,2%
Thermique97,4% TG
28,0%
CD for CDM - Second National Workshop on Baselines (Phase II) Cairo, March 31 & April 1, 2004
The Wind Energy project of Sidi Daoud
Location: North East Starting operation date: August 2000Capacity: 10,56 MWCost: 12,4 MDTFunding: STEG (20%), Long term spanish credit (80%)Extension on 2003 : 8,72 MW, 10,5 MDTInstitutional frame: direct operation by STEG
CD for CDM - Second National Workshop on Baselines (Phase II) Cairo, March 31 & April 1, 2004
Wind Energy Potential (capacity) Evolution de la capacité installée en éolien entre 2000 et 2030
Scénario volontariste
120420
820
1 300
1 800
30
130
430
930
2 100
20
1 400
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
3 000
3 500
4 000
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
MW
Parc éolien off shore
Parc éolien on shore
CD for CDM - Second National Workshop on Baselines (Phase II) Cairo, March 31 & April 1, 2004
Wind Energy potential (penetration rate)Taux de pénétration de l'éolien en % de la production électrique
Scénario volontariste
2,4%
6,0%
9,0%11,1%
12,3% 11,8%
1,5%
4,0%
6,9% 8,5%
0,5%
0,5%
0,0%
5,0%
10,0%
15,0%
20,0%
25,0%
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Taux de pénétration de l'éolien off shore
Taux de pénétration de l'éolien on shore
CD for CDM - Second National Workshop on Baselines (Phase II) Cairo, March 31 & April 1, 2004
Barriers to Wind Energy development in Tunisia
high capital technology Wind kWh not competitive with conventional power generation
Wind energy does not avoid capacityIt substitutes “only” fuel needed to produce marginal kWh
No suitable regulatory and institutional framework No mechanism to support the incremental cost between wind kWh and conventional kWh
No specific incentives to the wind sector
CD for CDM - Second National Workshop on Baselines (Phase II) Cairo, March 31 & April 1, 2004
Wind Energy CDM Project of Sidi Abderrahmen
Location: North East of Tunisia, Sidi Abderrahmen Mountain
Wind quality: 8 to 9 m/s in 30 m
Performance: 3200 hours/year
Capacity: 100 MW
Investment: about 100 MUSD, private sector
Institutional framework: Independent production
CD for CDM - Second National Workshop on Baselines (Phase II) Cairo, March 31 & April 1, 2004
Methods used for baseline calculation
Method 1: Actual average efficiency of the power production park on 2002
Method 2: Historical average efficiency of the power production park 1992-2002
Method 3: Calculation based on the generators installed within the 5 last years and who is among the 20% most efficiency generators in operation in the park
Method 4: Calculation based on marginal generators average
CD for CDM - Second National Workshop on Baselines (Phase II) Cairo, March 31 & April 1, 2004
Power generators selection for baseline calculation (method 1 & 2)
Method 1: Efficiency average of the electric production sector 2002
Fuel
Power generation
(GWh)Fuel consumption
(tep)
Specific consumption
(tep/GWh) Efficiency% of
consumption
N. Gas 7 978 2 087 605 262 33% 97,2%Fuel Oil 193 58 751 304 28% 2,7%Gas Oil 5 2 246 449 19% 0,1%
Total 8 176 2 148 602 263 33% 100%
Method 2: Efficiency average of the electric production sector 1992-2002
Fuel
Power generation
(GWh)Fuel consumption
(teo)
Specific consumption
(teo/GWh) Efficiency% of
consumption
N. Gas 78 848 20 767 724 263 33% 85,6%Fuel Oil 11 943 3 397 866 285 30% 14,0%Gas Oil 247 93 375 378 23% 0,4%
Total 91 037 24 258 965 266 32% 100%
CD for CDM - Second National Workshop on Baselines (Phase II) Cairo, March 31 & April 1, 2004
Fuel Site Techn.Specific cons.
(teo/GWh) Effic. RankGN Sousse CC 195 44% 1GN - FO Radés B TV 246 35% 2GN - FO Radés A TV 252 34% 3GN - FO Sousse TV 269 32% 4GN Bir M'cherga TG 311 28% 5
GN Bouchemma 2 TG 316 27% 6
FO Goulette II TV 326 26% 7
GN - FO Ghannouch TV 335 26% 8
GN - GO Sfax TG 367 23% 9
GN Ghannouch TG 377 23% 10
GN Kasserine TG 387 22% 11
GN Korba TG 394 22% 12
GN Bouchemma 1 TG 406 21% 13
GN Tunis-sud TG 409 21% 14
GO M.Bourguiba TG 414 21% 15
GO Robbana TG 419 21% 16
GO Zarzis TG 485 18% 17
Baseline (method 3)
Top 20%
Generators installed within the 5 last years
Power generators selection for baseline calculation (method 3)
CD for CDM - Second National Workshop on Baselines (Phase II) Cairo, March 31 & April 1, 2004
Power generators selection for baseline calculation (method 3)
Method 3: Last five years / 20% most efficient generators
Fuel
Power generation
(GWh)Fuel consumption
(teo)
Specific consumption
(teo/GWh) Efficiency% of
consumption
N. Gas 5 645 1 417 974 251 34% 97,8%Fuel Oil 127 31 880 251 34% 2,2%
Total 5 772 1 449 854 251 34% 100%
CD for CDM - Second National Workshop on Baselines (Phase II) Cairo, March 31 & April 1, 2004
Power generators selection for baseline calculation (method 4)
Electric load curve
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
1600
1700
1800
1900
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
MW
Pick period (2 hours)
Day period (12 hours)
Marginal generators
Base generators
CD for CDM - Second National Workshop on Baselines (Phase II) Cairo, March 31 & April 1, 2004
Power generators selection for baseline calculation (method 4) Electric load curve
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
1600
1700
1800
1900
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
MW
Pick period (2 hours)
Day period (12 hours)
Marginal generators
Base generators
Wind Energy farm contribution
CD for CDM - Second National Workshop on Baselines (Phase II) Cairo, March 31 & April 1, 2004
Power generators selection for baseline calculation (method 4) Electric load curve
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
1600
1700
1800
1900
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
MW
Pick period (2 hours)
Day period (12 hours)
Marginal generators
Base generators
Pick period (2 hours)
Day period (12 hours)
Night period (10 hours)
30%: TV70%: TG0%: CC
80%: TV0%: TG20%: CC
0%: TV100%: TG0%: CC
Contribution to the marginal power production
CD for CDM - Second National Workshop on Baselines (Phase II) Cairo, March 31 & April 1, 2004
Power generators selection for baseline calculation (method 4)
Method 4: Representative virtual power generator
Fuel
Specific consumption
(teo/GWh) EfficiencyN. Gas 300 29%
CD for CDM - Second National Workshop on Baselines (Phase II) Cairo, March 31 & April 1, 2004
Energy saving
Ligne de base kteo (20 years)Method 1 1 764 Method 2 1 793 Method 3 1 688 Method 4 2 016
CD for CDM - Second National Workshop on Baselines (Phase II) Cairo, March 31 & April 1, 2004
Power generators selection for baseline calculation (method 4) GHG Emissions reduction
4 279 4 524
4 077
4 840
-
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
6 000
Method 1 Method 2 Method 3 Method 4
10
00
x T
EC
O2
CD for CDM - Second National Workshop on Baselines (Phase II) Cairo, March 31 & April 1, 2004
GHG emissions reduction
Baseline method1000 x TECO2 (20
years) Diff.Method 1 4 279 13%Method 2 4 524 7%Method 3 4 077 19%Method 4 4 840
CD for CDM - Second National Workshop on Baselines (Phase II) Cairo, March 31 & April 1, 2004
Economic issues
Baseline methodNet value (8%) of
CDM revenueNet value (0%) of
CDM revenue
Net value of incremental
cost (0%)Method 1 6 13 18 Method 2 6 14 19 Method 3 6 12 17 Method 4 7 15 20
Investment / net value of CD revenue(8%) 6% to 7%Net value of CD revenue(8%) / Incremental cost 72%
CD for CDM - Second National Workshop on Baselines (Phase II) Cairo, March 31 & April 1, 2004
Power generators selection for baseline calculation (method 4)
Electric load curve (2002)
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
1600
1700
1800
1900
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
MW
Pick period (2 hours)
Day period (12 hours)
Night period (10 hours)
30%: TV70%: TG0%: CC
80%: TV0%: TG20%: CC
0%: TV100%: TG0%: CC