Baseline Climatology of Viti Levu (Fiji) and Current Climatic TrendsBaseline Climatology of Viti Levu (Fiji) and Current Climatic Trends

Melchior Mataki

AIACC-SIS09

Pacific Centre for Environment and Sustainable Development (PACE-SD)The University of the South Pacific, Suva, FijiTel: (+679) 321 21 51 ; Fax: (+679) 330 91 76

mataki_m@usp.ac.fj

Purpose of PaperPurpose of Paper

To characterize the observed behavior of surface climate at Nadi and Suva

To obtain an impression of on-going climate trends and their impact on exposure units

75% of Fiji population (~800,000), ~210,000 are in the greater Suva (capital) area

Economic activities: Agriculture-based economy with

heavy reliance on a single crop – sugar cane. Other main contributors to GDP are tourism and garment-manufacture - most of these are located in Viti levu

Land mass - 10,388km2

Dry in leeward (Nadi) 200cm annual rainfall (ARF)

Wet on windward east side(Suva) 300cm to 600cm (ARF)

Viti Levu (Fiji)Viti Levu (Fiji)

Fiji Meteorological Service (FMS) Stations Nadi Suva ~200km apart

Surface temperature and rainfall data 1961 - 2003 Max & Min temperature (T) Daily rainfall (RF)

Climatological StationsClimatological Stations

Baseline period (1961-1990) T & RF analysis Monthly and Annual climatological

means (normals)

Time series analysis on seasonal and annual basis

Data AnalysisData Analysis

Results & DiscussionResults & Discussion

Nadi Suva

Annual Climatological NormalsAnnual Climatological Normals

Monthly Climatological NormalsMonthly Climatological Normals

T-AnomaliesT-Anomalies

Nadi Suva

Max & Min TMax & Min T

RF AnomaliesRF Anomalies

ENSO is the key factor for variability in the Pacific climate system at interannual timescales.

El Nino and RFEl Nino and RF

SPCZ and Heavy Rainfall Events in PICs

Equatorial Indian Ocean temperatures also affect rainfall over the Pacific

• Warmer or colder sea surface temperatures (SST) affect the Earth's atmospheric circulation pattern such as to modulate the intensity of rainfall over most of Tropics.

• A phenomenon known as the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) has been found to affect the monsoon circulation and the MJO itself is affected by the variation of the SSTs.

• The MJO can be characterized by a large-scale eastward movement of air in the upper troposphere with a period of about 20-70 days, over the tropical eastern Indian and western Pacific Oceans at approximately 200 hPa in the upper troposphere.

Observed Sea level ChangesObserved Sea level Changes

The Island of Viti levu has a low adaptive capacity, high sensitivity to external shocks and high vulnerability to climate change

The inter-seasonal/annual variability in RF significantly affects the socio-economic activities on the island

Warming signals are already evident and there are evidences to suggest that sea level is rising

Concluding RemarksConcluding Remarks

Climate variability has significant impacts in Viti levu (also other islands in the pacific) on all strata of socio-economic activity.

While climate disasters (cyclones, floods and droughts) have prime impacts, inter-annual variability continually affects agricultural production, water resources, energy and many other sectors.

Concluding RemarksConcluding Remarks

Observed signals of climate change and enhanced climate variability in Viti levu call for a number of critical actions:

Island/region & sector specific adaptation strategies based on proven knowledge

Concluding RemarksConcluding Remarks