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BASEBALL PLAYERS CONTRACT VALUE VS. PERFORMANCE Kristi Karkut MBA 592 April 16, 2016

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Page 1: Baseball Metrics and player

BASEBALL PLAYERS CONTRACT VALUE VS. PERFORMANCEKristi KarkutMBA 592April 16, 2016

Page 2: Baseball Metrics and player

EVALUATION OF PLAYERS AND TEAMS Evaluation of all 30 teams in all areas of the game Comparison between American and National Leagues, Overall Review current contract payouts for players and payroll for teams Evaluate players and teams on relative statistics Determination if players are paid their worth Determination if team payroll is justified based on their placement

Page 3: Baseball Metrics and player

BASEBALL THROUGH THE YEARS Dates back 1800: Origin Significantly Debated 1871: Fifteen American League teams and1901: Fifteen National League teams

Twenty-nine teams located within the United States; One team: Canada 240 Minor League Teams

Major League Baseball: 1903 Brought in the Post Season

4-round Post Season Tournament Best American Team VS Best National Team: Best of Seven

Great Depression: America’s Pastime 1947: Jackie Robinson breaks Color Barrier Black Cloud: Continued Steroid Use

Page 4: Baseball Metrics and player

COMMON ABBREVIATIONS Defensive:

A: Assists E: Errors GP: Games Played INN: Innings Played PO: Putouts TC: Total Chances

(Opportunities)

Offensive: AB: At Bat BB: Walks (Base on

Balls) AVG: Batting Average H: Hits HR: Homerun S, 2B, 3B: Single,

Double Triple

Pitching: W: Walk BB: Walks (Base on

Balls) H: Hits ERA: Earned Run

Average IP: Innings Pitched W/L: Win/Loss

Page 5: Baseball Metrics and player

PLAYER SALARY & TEAM PAYROLL

Minimum $507,500

Highest Paid Clayton Kershaw and Jon Lester $30 million/year

Average Salary $4.25 million

Lowest Paid Team Miami Marlins

$68.5 million Highest Paid Team

Los Angeles Dodgers $272.8 million

Average Payroll $124.7 million

Page 6: Baseball Metrics and player

PAYROLL BY TEAMTeam 2015 Payroll Team 2015 Payroll1. Los Angeles Dodgers $272,789,040 16. Kansas City Royals $113,618,650 2. New York Yankees $219,282,196 17. Baltimore Orioles $110,146,097 3. Boston Red Sox $187,407,202 18. Minnesota Twins $108,945,000 4. Detroit Tigers $173,813,750 19. Milwaukee Brewers $105,002,536 5. San Francisco Giants $172,672,111 20. Colorado Rockies $102,006,130 6. Washington Nationals $164,920,505 21. New York Mets $101,409,244 7. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim $150,933,083 22. San Diego Padres $100,675,896 8. Texas Rangers $142,140,873 23. Atlanta Braves $97,578,565 9. Philadelphia Phillies $135,827,500 24. Arizona Diamondbacks $91,518,833 10. Toronto Blue Jays $122,506,600 25. Pittsburgh Pirates $88,278,500 11. St. Louis Cardinals $120,869,458 26. Cleveland Indians $86,091,175 12. Seattle Mariners $119,798,060 27. Oakland A's $86,086,667 13. Chicago Cubs $119,006,885 28. Tampa Bay Rays $76,061,707 14. Cincinnati Reds $117,197,072 29. Houston Astros $70,910,100 15. Chicago White Sox $115,238,678 30. Miami Marlins $68,479,000

Page 7: Baseball Metrics and player

PITCHING REPORT

Page 8: Baseball Metrics and player

ANALYSIS OF PITCHING Ranked based on ERA (Earned Run Average)

the mean of earned runs given up by a pitcher per nine innings pitched (i.e. the traditional length of a game). It is determined by dividing the number of earned runs allowed by the number of innings pitched and multiplying by nine.

Compiled from ESPN’s Top 20 Pitchers in 2015 Pitchers usually pitch every 5th gameday; unless additional rest is required

162 games / 5 = 32.4 32 to 33 games a season average

Page 9: Baseball Metrics and player

TOP 20 PITCHERS IN 2015World Series Team:

NYM: 4th and 6th KC: Did Not Place

Highest Paid Pitchers:Kershaw: 2nd

Lester: Did Not PlaceBest National League: Zack GrienkeBest American League: David PriceTop 20: 14 National League, 6 American League

RK PLAYER TEAM GP GS IP H R ER BB SO W L SV BLSV WAR WHIP ERA1 Zack Greinke LAD 32 32 222.2 148 43 41 40 200 19 3 0 0 9.3 0.84 1.662 Jake Arrieta CHC 33 33 229 150 52 45 48 236 22 6 0 0 8.6 0.86 1.773 Clayton Kershaw LAD 33 33 232.2 163 62 55 42 301 16 7 0 0 7.5 0.88 2.134 David Price DET/TOR 32 32 220.1 190 70 60 47 225 18 5 0 0 6 1.08 2.455 Dallas Keuchel HOU 33 33 232 185 68 64 51 216 20 8 0 0 7.2 1.02 2.486 Jacob deGrom NYM 30 30 191 149 59 54 38 205 14 8 0 0 4.7 0.98 2.547 Gerrit Cole PIT 32 32 208 183 71 60 44 202 19 8 0 0 4.5 1.09 2.68 Matt Harvey NYM 29 29 189.1 156 62 57 37 188 13 8 0 0 4.3 1.02 2.719 Sonny Gray OAK 31 31 208 166 71 63 59 169 14 7 0 0 5.8 1.08 2.7310 John Lackey STL 33 33 218 211 71 67 53 175 13 10 0 0 5.6 1.21 2.7711 Max Scherzer WSH 33 33 228.2 176 74 71 34 276 14 12 0 0 7 0.92 2.7912 Madison Bumgarner SF 32 32 218.1 181 73 71 39 234 18 9 0 0 4.9 1.01 2.9313 Carlos Martinez STL 31 29 179.2 168 65 60 63 184 14 7 0 0 3.9 1.29 3.0114 Shelby Miller ATL 33 33 205.1 183 82 69 73 171 6 17 0 0 3.6 1.25 3.0215 Lance Lynn STL 31 31 175.1 172 66 59 68 167 12 11 0 0 3.4 1.37 3.0316 Scott Kazmir OAK/HOU 31 31 183 162 77 63 59 155 7 11 0 0 3.3 1.21 3.117 Marco Estrada TOR 34 28 181 134 67 63 55 131 13 8 0 0 3.6 1.04 3.1318 A.J. Burnett PIT 26 26 164 174 64 58 49 143 9 7 0 0 2.7 1.36 3.1819 Chris Archer TB 34 34 212 175 85 76 66 252 12 13 0 0 4.3 1.14 3.2320 Tyson Ross SD 33 33 196 172 78 71 84 212 10 12 0 0 3.1 1.31 3.26

Page 10: Baseball Metrics and player

SALARIES FOR TOP 20 PITCHERSRK PLAYER TEAM ERA SALARY RK PLAYER TEAM ERA SALARY1 Zack Greinke LAD 1.66 25,000,000 11 Max Scherzer WSH 2.79 17,320,000 2 Jake Arrieta CHC 1.77 3,630,000 12 Madison BumgarnerSF 2.93 7,000,000 3 Clayton Kershaw LAD 2.13 32,570,000 13 Carlos Martinez STL 3.01 520,000 4 David Price DET/TOR 2.45 12,520,000 14 Shelby Miller ATL 3.02 535,000 5 Dallas Keuchel HOU 2.48 524,000 15 Lance Lynn STL 3.03 7,000,000 6 Jacob deGrom NYM 2.54 556,000 16 Scott Kazmir OAK/HOU 3.1 8,550,000 7 Gerrit Cole PIT 2.6 531,000 17 Marco Estrada TOR 3.13 3,900,000 8 Matt Harvey NYM 2.71 614,000 18 A.J. Burnett PIT 3.18 8,500,000 9 Sonny Gray OAK 2.73 512,000 19 Chris Archer TB 3.23 1,170,000 10 John Lackey STL 2.77 507,000 20 Tyson Ross SD 3.26 5,250,000

Page 11: Baseball Metrics and player

MLB STANDING BASED ON PITCHING1st Place $121 million2nd Place $88.2 million3rd Place $119 million4th Place $101.4 million5th Place $272.8 million

. . . . . .28th $173.8 million29th $135.8 million30th $102 million

RK TEAM GP W L ERA RK TEAM GP W L ERA1 St. Louis 162 100 62 2.94 16 Arizona 162 79 83 4.042 Pittsburgh 162 98 64 3.21 17 NY Yankees 162 87 75 4.053 Chicago Cubs 162 97 65 3.36 18 Baltimore 162 81 81 4.054 NY Mets 162 90 72 3.43 19 Minnesota 162 83 79 4.075 LA Dodgers 162 92 70 3.44 20 San Diego 162 74 88 4.096 Houston 162 86 76 3.57 21 Oakland 162 68 94 4.147 Washington 162 83 79 3.62 22 Seattle 162 76 86 4.168 Cleveland 161 81 80 3.67 23 Texas 162 88 74 4.249 San Francisco 162 84 78 3.72 24 Milwaukee 162 68 94 4.28

10 Kansas City 162 95 67 3.73 25 Boston 162 78 84 4.3111 Tampa Bay 162 80 82 3.74 26 Cincinnati 162 64 98 4.3312 Toronto 162 93 69 3.8 27 Atlanta 162 67 95 4.4113 LA Angels 162 85 77 3.94 28 Detroit 161 74 87 4.6414 Chicago Sox 162 76 86 3.98 29 Philadelphia 162 63 99 4.6915 Miami 162 71 91 4.02 30 Colorado 162 68 94 5.04

Page 12: Baseball Metrics and player

DEFENSIVE PLAYER REPORT

Page 13: Baseball Metrics and player

DEFENSIVE ANALYSIS Ranked based on total chances (opportunities)

represents the number of plays in which a defensive player has participated Evaluated based on the number of putouts and assists by the player, less

the number of errors: Fielding Percentage Errors are deducted from the percentage because an out is not made when

an error is committed Fielding Percentage Not completely Accurate

Not all players have the same number of chances, therefore, a higher fielding percentage will not necessarily be a predictor of future performance.

Page 14: Baseball Metrics and player

TOP 20 DEFENSIVE PLAYERS IN 2015World Series Team: KC: 4th, 17th NYM: 14th Highest Paid Players: AL: Joe Mauer; Miguel Cabrera NL: Adrian Gonzalez; Buster PoseyNational League Best: GoldschmidtAmerican League Best: HosmerTop 20: 8 American League, 12 National League

RK Player Team Games Innings Opportunity Putouts Assists Errors FPct Salary1 Paul Goldschmidt ASZ 157 1381.2 1505 1378 122 5 0.997 3,100,000$ 2 Anthony Rizzo CHC 160 1430.1 1465 1330 126 9 0.994 5,285,714$ 3 Adrian Gonzalez LAD 149 1254.1 1389 1267 116 6 0.996 21,857,142$ 4 Eric Hosmer KC 155 1357.2 1366 1261 101 4 0.997 5,700,000$ 5 Joey Votto CIN 156 1377.1 1360 1212 139 9 0.993 14,000,000$ 6 Jason Mauer MIN 137 1188 1242 1151 86 5 0.996 23,000,000$ 7 Buster Posey SF 148 1225.1 1193 1105 86 2 0.998 17,352,777$ 8 Adam Lind MIL 138 1163.2 1184 1098 82 4 0.997 7,500,000$ 9 Derek Norris SD 145 1148.2 1166 1077 80 9 0.992 545,000$ 10 Brandon Belt SF 134 1146.1 1152 1076 71 5 0.996 3,600,000$ 11 Carlos Santana CLE 132 1157 1141 1061 77 3 0.997 6,200,000$ 12 Logan Morrison SEA 144 1125.2 1135 1060 71 4 0.996 2,750,000$ 13 Yadier Molina STL 134 1149.2 1127 1064 56 7 0.994 15,300,000$ 14 Lucas Duda NYM 129 1127.2 1119 1039 77 3 0.997 4,200,000$ 15 Wilson Ramos WSH 125 1078.1 1109 1026 77 6 0.995 3,550,000$ 16 Francisco Cervelli PIT 128 1099.2 1081 992 82 7 0.994 987,500$ 17 Salvador Perez KC 140 1195.1 1070 976 90 4 0.996 1,850,000$ 18 Brian McCann NYY 136 1058.2 1068 992 69 7 0.993 17,000,000$ 19 Pedro Alvarez PIT 124 906.1 1057 966 68 23 0.978 5,750,000$ 20 Mitch Moreland TEX 120 982.1 1043 975 64 4 0.996 2,950,000$ 21 Jose Abreu CHW 115 1017 1023 952 60 11 0.989 8,666,666$ 22 Chris Carter HOU 115 913.1 986 911 67 8 0.992 4,175,000$ 23 Miguel Cabrera DET 107 932.1 983 903 76 4 0.996 22,000,000$ 24 Chris Davis BAL 141 1200.1 979 921 55 3 0.997 12,000,000$ 25 Freddie Freeman ATL 117 958 960 893 63 4 0.996 8,859,375$

Page 15: Baseball Metrics and player

MLB STANDINGS BASED ON DEFENSE

1st Place $ 272.8 million2nd Place $110 million3rd Place $68 million4th Place $172.7 million5th Place $86 million

. . . . . .28th $142 million29th $88 million30th $86 million

R TEAM GP E FPCT A PO TC RK TEAM GP E FPCT A PO TC1 LA Dodgers 162 75 0.988 1727 4337 6139 16 NY Yankees 162 92 0.985 1594 4373 60592 Baltimore 162 77 0.987 1597 4304 5978 17 San Diego 162 92 0.985 1566 4321 59793 Miami 162 77 0.987 1588 4281 5946 18 LA Angels 162 93 0.984 1491 4322 59064 San Francisco 162 78 0.987 1674 4333 6085 19 Seattle 162 94 0.985 1685 4389 61685 Cleveland 161 79 0.987 1528 4298 5905 20 Colorado 162 95 0.985 1818 4279 61926 Houston 162 85 0.986 1617 4323 6025 21 Tampa Bay 162 95 0.984 1408 4360 58637 Detroit 161 86 0.986 1621 4341 6048 22 St. Louis 162 96 0.984 1617 4394 61078 Minnesota 162 86 0.986 1637 4329 6052 23 Boston 162 97 0.984 1625 4345 60679 Arizona 162 86 0.986 1697 4400 6183 24 Chicago Sox 162 101 0.983 1582 4358 604110 Kansas City 162 88 0.985 1611 4356 6055 25 Chicago Cubs 162 111 0.982 1669 4384 616411 Toronto 162 88 0.985 1592 4323 6003 26 Milwaukee 162 116 0.981 1678 4305 609912 NY Mets 162 88 0.986 1599 4388 6075 27 Philadelphia 162 117 0.981 1585 4309 601113 Atlanta 162 90 0.985 1593 4276 5959 28 Texas 162 119 0.981 1695 4328 614214 Cincinnati 162 90 0.985 1622 4360 6072 29 Pittsburgh 162 122 0.981 1868 4469 645915 Washington 162 90 0.985 1533 4304 5927 30 Oakland 162 126 0.979 1642 4334 6102

Page 16: Baseball Metrics and player

OFFENSIVE PLAYER REPORT

Page 17: Baseball Metrics and player

OFFENSIVE ANALYSIS American League: Designated Hitter National League: Pitchers Bat Measured based on Batting Average

Batting average = (Number of hits)/(Number of official at bats) Does not include walks or strikeouts.

Page 18: Baseball Metrics and player

TOP 20 OFFENSIVE PLAYERS IN 2015

RK PLAYER TEAM AB H RBI BB SO AVG1 Miguel Cabrera DET 429 145 76 77 82 0.3382 Dee Gordon MIA 615 205 46 25 91 0.3333 Bryce Harper WSH 521 172 99 124 131 0.334 Paul Goldschmidt ARI 567 182 110 118 151 0.3215 Xander Bogaerts BOS 613 196 81 32 101 0.326 Buster Posey SF 557 177 95 56 52 0.3187 A.J. Pollock ARI 609 192 76 53 89 0.3158 Yunel Escobar WSH 535 168 56 45 70 0.3149 Joey Votto CIN 545 171 80 143 135 0.31410 Jose Altuve HOU 638 200 66 33 67 0.31311 David Peralta ARI 462 144 78 44 107 0.31212 Michael Brantley CLE 529 164 84 60 51 0.3113 Lorenzo Cain KC 551 169 72 37 98 0.30714 Prince Fielder TEX 613 187 98 64 88 0.30515 Jason Kipnis CLE 565 171 52 57 107 0.30316 Ender Inciarte ARI 524 159 45 26 58 0.30317 Nelson Cruz SEA 590 178 93 59 164 0.30218 DJ LeMahieu COL 564 170 61 50 107 0.30119 Mike Trout LAA 575 172 90 92 158 0.29920 Eric Hosmer KC 599 178 93 61 108 0.297

World Series Team: KC:13th and 20th NYM: Not Listed Highest Paid Players: AL: Buster Posey NL: Prince FielderNational League Best: CabreraAmerican League Best: GordonTop 20: 10 American League, 10 National League

Page 19: Baseball Metrics and player

SALARIES FOR TOP 20 BATTERSRK PLAYER TEAM AB H AVG Salary

1 Miguel Cabrera DET 429 145 0.338 $ 22,000,000.00 2 Dee Gordon MIA 615 205 0.333 2,500,000.00$ 3 Bryce Harper WSH 521 172 0.33 2,500,000.00$ 4 Paul Goldschmidt ARI 567 182 0.321 3,100,000.00$ 5 Xander Bogaerts BOS 613 196 0.32 543,000.00$ 6 Buster Posey SF 557 177 0.318 17,352,777.00$ 7 A.J. Pollock ARI 609 192 0.315 519,500.00$ 8 Yunel Escobar WSH 535 168 0.314 5,000,000.00$ 9 Joey Votto CIN 545 171 0.314 14,000,000.00$ 10 Jose Altuve HOU 638 200 0.313 2,712,500.00$ 11 David Peralta ARI 462 144 0.312 512,000.00$ 12 Michael Brantley CLE 529 164 0.31 5,875,000.00$ 13 Lorenzo Cain KC 551 169 0.307 2,825,000.00$ 14 Prince Fielder TEX 613 187 0.305 24,050,000.00$ 15 Jason Kipnis CLE 565 171 0.303 4,166,666.00$ 16 Ender Inciarte ARI 524 159 0.303 513,000.00$ 17 Nelson Cruz SEA 590 178 0.302 14,375,000.00$ 18 DJ LeMahieu COL 564 170 0.301 517,500.00$ 19 Mike Trout LAA 575 172 0.299 6,083,333.00$ 20 Eric Hosmer KC 599 178 0.297 5,700,000.00$

Page 20: Baseball Metrics and player

MLB STANDINGS BASED ON DEFENSE1st Place $ 173.8 million2nd Place $122.5 millionT 2nd Place $113.6 million4th Place $172.6 million5th Place $187.4 millionT 5th Place $102 million

. . . . . .27th $150.9 million28th $101.5 millionT 28th $119 million30th $100.6 million

Rk Team G PA AB H AVG Rk Team G PA AB H AVG1 DetroitTigers 161 6,159 5,605 1,515 0.270 14 WashingtonNationals 162 6,117 5,428 1,363 0.2512 TorontoBlue Jays 162 6,232 5,509 1,480 0.269 14 AtlantaBraves 162 6,034 5,420 1,361 0.2512 Kansas CityRoyals 162 6,116 5,575 1,497 0.269 14 MilwaukeeBrewers 162 6,024 5,480 1,378 0.2514 San FranciscoGiants 162 6,153 5,565 1,486 0.267 19 BaltimoreOrioles 162 6,007 5,485 1,370 0.2505 BostonRed Sox 162 6,237 5,640 1,496 0.265 19 HoustonAstros 162 6,073 5,459 1,363 0.2505 ColoradoRockies 162 6,071 5,572 1,479 0.265 19 ChicagoWhite Sox 162 6,070 5,533 1,381 0.2507 ArizonaDiamondbacks 162 6,276 5,649 1,494 0.264 19 Los AngelesDodgers 162 6,090 5,385 1,346 0.2508 MiamiMarlins 162 5,988 5,463 1,420 0.260 23 SeattleMariners 162 6,131 5,544 1,379 0.2498 PittsburghPirates 162 6,285 5,631 1,462 0.260 23 PhiladelphiaPhillies 162 6,053 5,529 1,374 0.249

10 TexasRangers 162 6,187 5,511 1,419 0.257 25 CincinnatiReds 162 6,196 5,571 1,382 0.24811 ClevelandIndians 161 6,109 5,439 1,395 0.256 26 MinnesotaTwins 162 6,017 5,467 1,349 0.24712 St. LouisCardinals 162 6,139 5,484 1,386 0.253 27 Los AngelesAngels 162 5,990 5,417 1,331 0.24613 Tampa BayRays 162 6,071 5,485 1,383 0.252 28 New YorkMets 162 6,145 5,527 1,351 0.24414 New YorkYankees 162 6,268 5,567 1,397 0.251 28 ChicagoCubs 162 6,200 5,491 1,341 0.24414 OaklandAthletics 162 6,171 5,600 1,405 0.251 30 San DiegoPadres 162 6,019 5,457 1,324 0.243

Page 21: Baseball Metrics and player

SO, ARE THEY WORTH IT?

Page 22: Baseball Metrics and player

TOP PLAYERS VS. TOP PAID Offensive Top Players

Offensive Top Paid

Pitching Top Players

Pitching Top Paid

1 Miguel Cabrera DET 0.3382 Dee Gordon MIA 0.3333 Bryce Harper WSH 0.334 Paul Goldschmidt ARI 0.3215 Xander Bogaerts BOS 0.32

RK PLAYER TEAM Salary14 Prince Fielder TEX 24,050,000.00$ 1 Miguel Cabrera DET $ 22,000,000.00 6 Buster Posey SF 17,352,777.00$ 17 Nelson Cruz SEA 14,375,000.00$ 9 Joey Votto CIN 14,000,000.00$

Rk Player Team GP IP ERA1 Zack Greinke LAD 32 223 1.662 Jake Arrieta CHC 33 229 1.773 Clayton Kershaw LAD 33 233 2.134 David Price DET/TOR 32 220 2.455 Dallas Kuechel HOU 33 232 2.48

Rk Player Team ERA Salary3 Clayton Kershaw LAD 2.13 32,570,000$ 1 Zack Greinke LAD 1.66 25,000,000$

17 Max Scherzer WSH 2.79 17,230,000$ 4 David Price DET/TOR 2.45 12,520,000$

16 Scott Kazmir OAK/HOU 3.1 8,550,000$

Page 23: Baseball Metrics and player

TOP PLAYERS VS. TOP PAID (CONT) Defensive Top Players

Defensive Top Paid

RK Player Team Opportunity Putouts Assists FPct 1 Paul Goldschmidt ASZ 1505 1378 122 0.9972 Anthony Rizzo CHC 1465 1330 126 0.9943 Adrian Gonzalez LAD 1389 1267 116 0.9964 Eric Hosmer KC 1366 1261 101 0.9975 Joey Votto CIN 1360 1212 139 0.993

RK Player Team Opportunity Putouts Assists Salary6 Jason Mauer MIN 1242 1151 86 23,000,000$ 23 Miguel Cabrera DET 983 903 76 22,000,000$ 3 Adrian Gonzalez LAD 1389 1267 116 21,857,142$ 7 Buster Posey SF 1193 1105 86 17,352,777$

18 Brian McCann NYY 1068 992 69 17,000,000$

Page 24: Baseball Metrics and player

MOST PLAYERS DO NOT PERFORM TO THE LEVEL THEIR PAYROLL SUGGESTS.The only grouping of players that have come close are the pitchers, with three of the top five players also being the highest paid. Only one top five offensive player was of the highest paid, with no defensive top five player being on the list of highest paid.