Barry R. Chiswick

1

GLOBES Conference Tel Aviv, Israel

December 2008

THE AMERICAN ECONOMIC

EXPERIENCE WITH

IMMIGRATION

Barry R. Chiswick

University of Illinois at Chicagoand

IZA – Institute for the Study of Labor

11/25/08

Barry R. Chiswick

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Legal Immigration per year

Number of people

Recently: 1.0 million

1950s: 250,000

1905-1914 (peak): 1.0 million

Return Migration

Foreign Born Population Proportion of U.S.

Population

2008: 13.0 percent

1970 (low point) : 4.7 percent

Immigration to the U.S.

Barry R. Chiswick

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Immigration by Type of Visa 2007

Category Thousands

Immediate Relatives of US Citizens

494

688Family Sponsored 194

Employment Based (and their families)

162

Diversity 42

Refugees, Asylees, Parolees 138

Other 20

TOTAL 1,052

Barry R. Chiswick

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Origins of Legal Immigrants, 2007

Total Number: 1,052,416

Region Percent

Africa 9

Asia 36

Europe 11

N. America

Mexico

Canada

32

15

2

S. America 11

Oceania 1

Total 100

Barry R. Chiswick

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Illegal Immigration

Apprehensions:• 1.0 to 1.8 million/year since 1976• Now about 1.0 million/year• 85 to 90 percent Mexicans

apprehended at the border

Stock:• Estimated at 12 million

Skills:• Primarily very low skilled

Barry R. Chiswick

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U. S. Immigration in Recent Decades

• Increase in high-skilled immigration

– (legal – H1-B, permanent and temporary)

– Sectors: High technology, science and engineering, IT, Medicine, R&D

– Raised US productivity, productivity potential, and global competitiveness

Barry R. Chiswick

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U. S. Immigration in Recent Decades

• Increase in low-skilled immigration (very large)

– Sectors: Service, Construction, Agriculture, Manufacturing

– Increased competition with low-skilled native workers (esp. for low-skilled minorities)

Barry R. Chiswick

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U. S. Immigration in Recent Decades

• Likely Net Effects:

– Increased Inequality in skills

– Increased U.S. Productivity

– Increased wage inequality

– Increased public transfers more than taxes

Barry R. Chiswick

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U.S. Prospects for the Future

Near Term:1) Reduced number of visas for skilled

workers (permanent and temporary) during recession

2) Amnesty (“Earned Legalization”) for millions of illegal immigrants

Longer Term:1) Continued emphasis on Kinship visas

(Ethnic Politics)

2) Post-recession increases in Temporary High-Skill visas

3) Continued growth in illegal migrant population vs. Workplace Enforcement

Barry R. Chiswick

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Global Prospects for the Future

• Continued Fall in Costs of information and transportation

• Continued spread of English as the International Language

of Science, Technology, Business, and Higher Education

Trade (Goods and Services):– Two-way Street– Continued movement toward

Free Trade (reduced tarriff and non-tarriff barriers)

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Global Prospects for the Future

Migration From LDCs to DCs:

– One-way Street

– Continued migration pressures

– Transfer Programs & Property Rights

• (Taxes and Transfers)

– Income Distribution

– Immigration Restrictions

– Enforcement Problems in Liberal Democracies

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Global Prospects for the Future

Migration Among DCs:

– High degree of international transferability of skills

– Global businesses

– Migration policies favor high-skilled workers

(Permanent and Temporary)

– Increasing Globalization of the High-Skilled Labor Market

– Implications for: • Earnings• Migration Flows • Technological Change• Economic Progress