BARLEY & OILSEEDS UPDATE

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27 November 2009Sam Tainsh General Manager TradingGrainCorp

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Overview

• World Oilseeds• World Canola• Oils demand• World barley• Australian barley• Currencies

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International Oilseed S & D

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Source: Oil World

International Canola S & D

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Source: Oil World

Canola Stocks to Use Ratio

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Source: FutureSource, Oil World

Biodiesel Production

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Source: Oil World

Growing Food Oil Consumption

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Source: USDA

Oilseed Summary

• Strong demand underpinning current values• Focus will be on the South American bean crops• Oilseed production recovery from last year likely• The increased rapeseed plantings this year are needed to

support growing demand• Major exporting nations are watching the Chinese Blackleg

issues

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Global Feed Grains

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Source: USDA

Global Barley Supply & Demand

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Global Barley Supply and DemandAttribute 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10

Beginning Stocks (1000 MT) 21,283 19,775 30,214

Area Harvested (1000 HA) 57,242 55,447 55,142

Production (1000 MT) 132,838 153,734 147,824

MY Imports (1000 MT) 15,649 19,646 16,831

MY Exports (1000 MT) 15,465 20,096 17,243

Feed and Residual (1000 MT) 92,204 99,495 101,424

FSI Consumption (1000 MT) 42,326 43,350 44,199

Total Consumption (1000 MT) 134,530 142,845 145,623

Ending Stocks (1000 MT) 19,775 30,214 32,003

Stocks to Use 15% 21% 22%Source: USDA

Barley Production Area

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Source: ABARE, ABS

Australian Barley Production

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US Corn Demand

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Source: USDA

The Australian Dollar

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33% Increase

Source: FutureSource

Ukraine & Russian

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RUB: -18%UAH: -43%

Source: FutureSource

Questions

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