Equity Research 21 June 2017

Barclays Capital Inc. and/or one of its affiliates does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. PLEASE SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATION(S) AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES BEGINNING ON PAGE 12.

U.S. Autos & Auto Parts

Ford/GM - Driving strategies along three dimensions CEOs of major auto companies today face the most difficult, multidimensional challenges ever seen in the industry. Yes, past CEOs had to deal with change – but it was typically just along one dimension, occasionally two, as business cycles intruded. But now OEMs are faced with challenges along at least three dimensions. Near term, they need to manage the cycle challenges of the US SAAR plateau – and the eventual downturn. Mid term, the challenge is to cost-effectively meet the megatrends of connected cars, Big Data, active safety, and electrified powertrains. Longer term, OEMs need to deal with #disruptivemoblity, a sharp shift from personal car ownership to purchasing transportation as a service. While we believe Ford has an edge in managing the cycle, we believe GM is ahead in the intermediate megatrends stage, and has an early lead in the longer term era of #disruptivemobility.

Near term – managing the US SAAR cycle, advantage Ford: We believe Ford currently has an advantage given better managed inventories / better pricing dynamics. Moreover, with a smaller, and more reined-in lease book, Ford Credit holds an advantage over GM Financial, which is newer to the prime financing/leasing business. That said, GM’s North America business has outperformed Ford in recent quarters. And we believe both companies can better manage through a downturn than investors give them credit – albeit, the first couple quarters of the downturn will be rocky.

Mid term – managing the megatrends, advantage GM: In managing the key trends of increasing electrification, active safety and connectivity/Big Data, we believe GM has the lead. It is well positioned given its experimentation with Volt and Bolt in electrification, early adoption of OnStar (providing connectivity), and its extensive use of Mobileye for autonomous braking + its upcoming highway ‘autopilot’ launch in Super Cruise. And importantly, these experiences provide key learnings for longer-term initiatives. That said, both Ford and GM lag Tesla along most of these dimensions.

Long term – disruptivemobility, a lead for GM, but still early days: In the much longer-term game of #disruptivemobility, both Ford and GM have been much more active than most realize, preparing for the move to autonomous vehicles and mobility as a service. Yet they have taken sharply different approaches. GM has been more aggressive in early spending on Silicon Valley firms, with its investment in Lyft and purchase of Cruise Automation. Ford, by contrast, has been later and appears to have spent less to date, preferring to focus on niches in mobility (specifically van-based ride sharing) and on acquiring talented project leads (vs. existing software) to build out Level 4/5 software. At this point, GM is in the lead vs. Ford. But as it’s still early days in the race towards #disruptivemobility, it’s too early to call a winner.

INDUSTRY UPDATE

U.S. Autos & Auto Parts NEUTRAL Unchanged

U.S. Autos & Auto Parts Brian A. Johnson +1 212 526 5627 brian.a.johnson@barclays.com BCI, US Dan Levy, CFA +1 212 526 8047 dan.levy@barclays.com BCI, US Steven Hempel, CFA +1 312 609 7260 steven.hempel@barclays.com BCI, US

Research 7 June 2017

US Economics and Credit Strategy

Technology-based change leaves retail looking overextended It has become accepted wisdom that the traditional retail industry is facing

significant challenges from the migration of sales volume to e-commerce channels. We examine the degree to which further significant retail bankruptcies would trigger a sharp reduction in industry capacity and employment.

We see a traditional retail industry with excess capacity. Employment has rebounded near to its prior cycle peaks amid a steady increase in physical footprint, just as technological trends seem poised to damage revenue. Capacity, as measured by store unit additions, has grown twice as fast as real sales since 2005.

Overcapacity is not driven by exuberance and the retail sector is not a candidate for the typical bubble-bust effect on the business cycle. Yet, technology-based structural change, in our view, leaves the traditional brick and mortar retail sector looking overextended nonetheless.

We estimate the amount of needed capacity withdrawal based on the industry’s mid-cycle return on assets (ROA), or the minimum return in non-recession years prior to when e-commerce began to heavily suppress ROAs. Applying our assumptions retailer by retailer in our company universe, we think that capacity needs to be reduced by 10-13% to get ROAs back to mid-cycle values.

We believe it is conceivable that bankruptcy proceedings at a large department store could lead to knock-off effects on other middle mall stores, regional banks, and non-retailers that lead to total job losses of around 300,000 in fairly short order. Abrupt adjustment in the retail industry could increase the severity or prolong any downturn in activity as capacity is withdrawn quickly.

Employment in the traditional retail sector across future business cycles may behave similarly to manufacturing in recent decades, where sharp reductions in employment during recessions were followed by little to no meaningful recovery thereafter.

Michael Gapen +1 212 526 8536 michael.gapen@barclays.com BCI, US Ryan Preclaw, CFA* +1 212 412 2249 ryan.preclaw@barclays.com BCI, US www.barclays.com

* This author is a member of the FICC Research

department who is not subject to all of the

independence and disclosure standards

applicable to analysts who produce retail debt

research reports under US FINRA Rule 2242.

PLEASE SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES STARTING AFTER PAGE 8

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Equity Research 3 April 2017

Barclays Capital Inc. and/or one of its affiliates does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.

This research report has been prepared in whole or in part by equity research analysts based outside the US who are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA. PLEASE SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATION(S) AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES BEGINNING ON PAGE 51.

European & US Telecommunications

Potential on both sides of the pond In this detailed report we compare and contrast the key regulatory, competitive and investment themes in the US and Europe. We see a more positive regulatory outlook and incentive to invest in the US (borne out by M&A/Capex trends). ROCE is very similar as higher US NOPAT is offset by higher capital employed. This is balanced by rising competitive forces in the US, whereas European competition is much more stable (with pricing 2x lower). We still see T-Mobile US (and DT in Europe) as best placed to create value, and our deep dive on Vodafone vs. Verizon shows Vodafone in a more favourable light. Cable appears attractive in both markets, and for Towers we see the US remaining more advanced, but both US and Europe screen well.

Regulation – US regulatory approach appears more pro-investment than Europe. Both regulatory authorities are keen to stimulate investment to support economic growth. Feedback from the recent Digital Regulation Forum highlights clear differences between actions and words, with the US continuously stressing a “lighter touch”, and raising hopes for consolidation. In stark contrast, Europe, although wanting investment, still appears fixated on lower price, and a “carrot and stick” approach.

Competition – US competition ramping, Europe steady. We believe the US is entering a phase of increased competition, especially in Wireless (incumbents and new cable offerings), whereas in Europe the tone is more balanced. We note revenue and EBITDA per pop is 2x in the US vs. Europe, which implies relative downside for the US. Fibre is a focus in both markets, and we see signs of inflationary pricing in Europe.

5G and investment – US continues to out-invest Europe 2:1. Given the regulatory and competitive backdrop above, it is unsurprising to see the US Telcos attempt to invest (and possibly consolidate) their way out of a rising competitive environment; US capex/pop is also 2x higher than in Europe. Transformational deals such as AT&T/Time Warner for Content and elevated investments in 5G/Virtualisation are evidence of this “raising the bar”. European Telcos are typically taking a “wait and see” approach (with Fibre an exception) – some are “de-equitizing” their positions via asset disposals.

Valuation and Returns – ROCE is key. US and European Telcos trade on similar EBITDA/FCF multiples, even if Europe offers a higher dividend yield. When looking at returns, we see the US Telcos offering NOPAT 60% higher than European peers. However, capital employed is ca60-70% higher (spectrum and tangible fixed assets), giving ROCE of ca7% including goodwill, or ca10% excluding goodwill.

Stock implications. We see TMUS ideally placed as a “king-maker” asset in the US, with the asset making up 35% of our DT SOTP value. Together these two represent our Top Picks. We prefer Vodafone over Verizon, concluding that both face operational strategic challenges, but see the risk/reward more skewed positively for Vodafone. A review of AMX and TEF shows both face ongoing challenges in 2017). Our positive stance on the Cable and Tower space continues, with both US and Europe offering opportunities.

INDUSTRY UPDATE

European Telecom Services POSITIVE Unchanged

U.S. Telecom Services NEUTRAL Unchanged

European Telecom Services Maurice Patrick +44 (0)20 3134 3622 maurice.patrick@barclays.com Barclays, UK Mathieu Robilliard +44 (0)20 3134 3288 mathieu.robilliard@barclays.com Barclays, UK Daniel Morris +44 (0)20 7773 2113 daniel.m.morris@barclays.com Barclays, UK Simon Coles +44 (0)20 3555 4519 simon.aa.coles@barclays.com Barclays, UK

U.S. Telecom Services Amir Rozwadowski +1 212 526 4043 amir.rozwadowski@barclays.com BCI, US Matt Bienkowski +1 212 526 2308 matt.bienkowski@barclays.com BCI, US Justine Humenansky +1 212 526 5080 justine.x.humenansky@barclays.com BCI, US

U.S. Cable & Satellite Communications Kannan Venkateshwar +1 212 528 7054 kannan.venkateshwar@barclays.com BCI, US

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Equity Research Energy | European Integrated Oil & Refining

16 March 2017

BP

Not just any downstream

The coming five years should be transformative for BP. In the upstream, sector leading volume growth ambitions of 5% pa to 2021 look achievable and combined with greater efficiency should yield much improved results. Yet it is the plans for the downstream that have the potential to deliver the biggest positive surprise to the market, with our own pre-tax FCF forecasts for the division some 50% below the top end of BP’s numbers presented in its latest strategy plan. This Full Signal report focuses on that downstream business, analysing how achievable these plans are by using a comparison with a wider marketing focused peer group. Our conclusion is that a successful roll-out of a convenience offering – such as the Marks & Spencer’s partnership in the UK – should enable BP to increase its profit per barrel sold, which we estimate is currently 40% below the peer group average, and go a long way to delivering on the group’s FCF aspirations. It would be easy to overcomplicate the investment case for BP, but for us the attraction is in the simplicity. If the dividend is sustainable, then the shares, which offer a 7% yield, remain meaningfully undervalued and we expect to see a differentiated performance, particularly from 2H 2017 as a number of the larger projects start up. We continue to rate the shares Overweight with a 625p/sh price target.

Downstream potential to surprise: The purpose of this report is to focus on the potential of the downstream to deliver FCF aspirations essentially twice our current projections. Using a different peer group to normal we look at what can be achieved in terms of margin per barrel and margin per site in the fuels marketing business. On our estimates an uplift in per-barrel profitability of $1.5/bl, or 70%, would enable BP to meet the figures presented in the strategy update. Although a significant step up, this would not be stand-out within the convenience and fuel retailing sector.

Two paths to 800p/sh upside: Whilst we have chosen not to change any numbers within this report given what we see as the need to have evidence of delivery, we have lifted our upside case to 800p from 740p previously. We see two potential paths to this upside case. First is the incorporation of the full downstream guidance into our numbers. The second is the incorporation of approximately one-third of the upside combined with a recovery in the oil price by 2020 towards our upside case of $85/bl.

BP.L: Financial and Valuation Metrics EPS GBP

FY Dec 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

EPS 0.40A 0.21A 0.10E 0.42E 0.49E Previous EPS 0.40A 0.21A 0.10E 0.42E 0.49E P/E 11.5 21.7 45.2 10.8 9.4 Source: Barclays Research, Consensus numbers are from Thomson Reuters.

Stock Rating OVERWEIGHT Unchanged

Industry View POSITIVE Unchanged

Price Target GBP 6.25 Unchanged

Price (14-Mar-2017) GBP 4.57 Potential Upside/Downside +36.8% Tickers BP/ LN / BP.L

Market Cap (GBP mn) 89877 Shares Outstanding (mn) 19560.29 Free Float (%) 99.31 52 Wk Avg Daily Volume (mn) 34.1 52 Wk Avg Daily Value (GBP mn) 146.96 Dividend Yield (%) 7.0 Return on Equity TTM (%) 0.12 Current BVPS (GBP) 3.97 Source: Thomson Reuters

Price Performance Exchange-LSE 52 Week range GBP 5.21-3.35

Link to Barclays Live for interactive charting

European Integrated Oil & Refining Lydia Rainforth, CFA +44 (0)20 3134 6669 lydia.rainforth@barclays.com Barclays, UK

Joshua Stone +44 (0)20 3134 6694 joshua.stone@barclays.com Barclays, UK

Danni Li +44 (0)20 3134 5636 danni.li@barclays.com Barclays, UK

Barclays Capital Inc. and/or one of its affiliates does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.

This research report has been prepared in whole or in part by equity research analysts based outside the US who are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA. PLEASE SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATION(S) AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES BEGINNING ON PAGE 30

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